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Post by wcsoxfan on Jun 15, 2014 15:47:45 GMT -5
Like many here, I had hope that Dustin Pedroia's lack of power in 2013 was simply a result of his injured wrist. But his power stroke has yet to arise in 2014 so I took a look at some of his peripherals to find a cause for the power loss or an indication that it may return.
Base stats: Career - .300/.368.449 = .358 wOBA 2014 - .269/.345/.381 = .324 wOBA
2010/2011/2012/2013/2014: BABIP - .291/.325/.300/.326/.297 Line Drives - 22.2%/19.1%/19.8%/21.6%/24.7% Gound Balls - 38.9%/47.7%/45.6%/50.4%/47.2% Fly Balls - 38.9%/33.3%/34.6%/27.9%/28.1% FB Pitchf/x value - 12.9/19.4/12.6/-2.4/-0.2
The Good: Pedroia's BABIP is slightly lower than expected and with his career high line drive rate we can probably expect a ~20 point increase in batting average by year end, raising his line up to ~.290/.365/.411.
The Bad: His ground ball rate over the past two years in hovering dangerously close to 50% while his fly ball rate is 5%+ below his peak years. With declining (or expected declining) speed this may lead to not only lower slugging numbers but also a lower batting average.
The Scariest part is probably his weighted value against fastballs. He has seen slightly more fastballs this year along with fewer curve balls - as more opposing pitchers see these numbers I would expect this trend to continue. I'm uncertain if this is due to an adjustment in swing mechanics, a lack of confidence in his wrist or the typical decline of bat speed from an aging player in his early 30s.
Outlook: At this time Pedroia has shown no overall decline in his defensive game and as long as he continues to show strong plate discipline and hit liners at a 20%+ rate he should continue to be a 'first division 2-hole hitter'/'borderline all-star' for the foreseeable (2-3 years?) future. But there is no indication that the power from his peak years will be returning.
Please Note: I only listed peripherals that appeared (not tested) to be relevant. All statistics are courtesy of Fangraphs.
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Post by jmei on Jun 15, 2014 16:11:45 GMT -5
The pitch type linear weights stuff (vs. fastball, etc.) may or may not be significant. If the BABIP/power decline is just bad luck (line drives getting caught, warning-track fly balls, etc.), it still shows up negatively in the linear weights even if the root causes of those events are just random fluctuation and not sustainable.
The ground ball stuff is a slight concern, but he's been in that 45-50% ground ball bucket for four years now, and he'd hit pretty well in the first three years of that stretch. Maybe he's no longer a 130 wRC+ guy, but I think he's still a 110-115 wRC+ guy once his BABIP bumps up a little, and that's easily enough to make him a four+ win player. He may no longer be a superstar, but I think he's still an All-Star-level player, and that should be good enough if the rest of the lineup gets filled out with good players.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 15, 2014 16:39:26 GMT -5
but I think he's still a 110-115 wRC+ guy You're not the only one. ZiPS (RoS): 111 wRC+ Steamer (RoS): 115 wRC+
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jun 15, 2014 16:58:41 GMT -5
The pitch type linear weights stuff (vs. fastball, etc.) may or may not be significant. If the BABIP/power decline is just bad luck (line drives getting caught, warning-track fly balls, etc.), it still shows up negatively in the linear weights even if the root causes of those events are just random fluctuation and not sustainable. The ground ball stuff is a slight concern, but he's been in that 45-50% ground ball bucket for four years now, and he'd hit pretty well in the first three years of that stretch. Maybe he's no longer a 130 wRC+ guy, but I think he's still a 110-115 wRC+ guy once his BABIP bumps up a little, and that's easily enough to make him a four+ win player. He may no longer be a superstar, but I think he's still an All-Star-level player, and that should be good enough if the rest of the lineup gets filled out with good players. I would agree with you about the linear weights in some cases - but for 2013/2014 fastballs we are talking about over 2,500 pitches and a VERY large drop in performance. I think it's safe to say that there is a significant drop in ability here. Agree with you about the ~4WAR assessment. Still quite good. But the big question is whether or not his bat speed will diminish within the next couple of years. And quite a bit of his value will be based on defense going forward, so any loss in foot speed cwould hurt quite a bit as well. I think the Red Sox will get plenty of value out of the next 2-3 years but I'm worried about the tail end of his contract (like most players). One nice though is that Pedroia doesn't seem like a guy who would stick around just to collect a pay check. I think he would retire soon after his contract becomes an albatross.
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Post by terriblehondo on Jun 15, 2014 18:20:48 GMT -5
Played with a torn ligament in his hand last year for every game. I tore the same ligament I just let it go for 6 weeks I could do almost nothing with that hand. Then I got it fixed. There is no way he should have been able to play with that. Let alone the level he did. It took me a couple of years to get most of the strength back. He messed up his wrist and needed a cortisone shot this year. It is hard to hit without healthy hands and wrists. I think if he is healthy he will hit. Will he ever be totally healthy again with the way he plays? That is the question.
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Post by jmei on Jun 15, 2014 20:13:23 GMT -5
I would agree with you about the linear weights in some cases - but for 2013/2014 fastballs we are talking about over 2,500 pitches and a VERY large drop in performance. I think it's safe to say that there is a significant drop in ability here. You're right-- I didn't notice the sheer magnitude of the difference. Per Brooks Baseball, from 2010-12, Pedroia hit .330 and slugged .556 versus fastballs (.337 BABIP, .226 ISO). From 2013-13, he hit .293 and slugged .406 versus fastballs (.318 BABIP, .114 ISO). Pedroia is actually swinging-and-missing less versus four-seam fastballs in that later period, but he's hitting more ground balls (8% versus 5.6%) and fewer fly balls (4.3% versus 6.3%). His home run rate has basically collapsed versus four-seamers-- from 1.06% to 0.29%. It's certainly possible this is more health-related than anything else, and that if he gets healthy again, the power will return. But at the very least, this is something to watch. Pedroia at a 110-ish wRC+ is still a very valuable player and probably worth his contract (assuming he's healthy enough to play and his defense continues to be above-average), but that makes him more of a complementary offensive piece than a core one.
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Post by c00lryan on Sept 22, 2014 10:12:54 GMT -5
Totally random (and possibly dumb) question: Is there any reason the Red Sox have not put Pedroia on the DL?
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Post by joshv02 on Sept 22, 2014 10:36:03 GMT -5
Totally random (and possibly dumb) question: Is there any reason the Red Sox have not put Pedroia on the DL? Rosters are at 40 now and there is no need (or value) in doing so. There could be a downside (I haven't read the CBA closely in that regard, but there are certain reporting obligations that go with a DL move), but I can't see what the upside would be.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 22, 2014 14:15:16 GMT -5
Yup, basically no reason to do so. The point of putting a player on the DL is to free up his roster spot. In September, there is no reason to put anyone on the DL unless you're putting him on the 60-day in order to free up a 40-man spot.
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