SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by geezergeek on Jun 18, 2014 18:33:52 GMT -5
One of the nice problems of a loaded farm system is that a team faces a dilemma as players mature and there is limited space on the 40 man roster. The Sox will face that problem next year with 2 players as they did last year with Almanzar. Sean Coyle is the first player that needs to be addressed. Injuries slowed him the first 4 years but he seems to have found his rhythm this ear. I don't think he has much trade value other than being included as a throw in, in a larger deal. Is it time to showcase him on the major league roster now to see he he has trade value now or is at least worthy of a spot on next years 40 man roster?
The other player is Luis Diaz. Injuries slowed him also but he seems to be progressing. I like his size and he seems to be one pitch away from being at least a minor league factor. I look at Diaz being at at the top of the second tier pitchers (outside of the Webster, Owens, Barnes et al). He just got bumped to Portland and there seems to be little room for him in Pawtucket even if he does well in AA. Again, little or no trade value other than being a throw in? Is there room for him on the on the 40 man roster next year as it would be a shame lose him to rule 5 next year?
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Jun 18, 2014 18:43:55 GMT -5
I don't really see a 40-man roster crunch right now. Jonathan Herrera can be DFAed anytime. One of Alex Wilson or Drake Britton will hopefully be ready for the bigs next year, freeing up a spot currently taken by a veteran reliever. We have several MLB-ready pitchers who might not be quite good enough for the Red Sox rotation but can easily be traded to a smaller market team and slot into their rotation in exchange for fresh prospects. (Don't really want to name names as everyone will have different ideas of which to trade and which to keep, but Steven Wright would be an example). And by the end of the year we might determine that some players (Lavarnway, Hassan) are no longer worth keeping around.
You'll have to make a much more convincing argument that we actually have a problem.
Also I have my doubts about a team being willing to carry Luis Diaz on their 25-man all year after just half a year of AA which we haven't even witnessed yet.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,882
|
Post by ericmvan on Jun 18, 2014 19:02:41 GMT -5
There should be plenty of room on the 40-man for additions -- at least 8 guys, I think, but it's probably too early to try to guess an exact number.
In the meantime, here's a possible breakdown:
Definite Additions Matt Barnes
Sean Coyle Blake Swihart
Probable Additions Henry Ramos Travis Shaw
Possible Additions Miguel Celestino (MLFA) Keith Couch Chris Hernandez Tommy Layne (MLFA) Noe Ramirez Robby Scott
Keep Your Eye On Luis Diaz Aaron Kurcz
Keury De La Cruz Derrik Gibson
Other Eligibles Mario Alcantara Jonathan Aro William Cuevas Jacob Dahlstrand Jason Garcia Sergio Gomez Ellis Jiminez Mike McCarthy Matty Ott Oscar Perez Carlos Pinales Madison Younginer
David Chester Matt Gedman Dreily Guerrero Jayson Hernandez Matty Johnson Zach Kapstein Jesus Loya Kendrick Perkins Tim Roberson David Sopilka Alixon Suarez Jose Vinicio Shannon Wilkerson
Other Eligibles (MLFA) Wilfredo Boscan Dayan Diaz John Ely Rich Hill Jeremy Kehrt Michael Olmsted Nate Reed Chris Resop Pete Ruiz Kyle Stroup Jose Valdez Raynel Velette Bryan Villareal
Carson Blair Michael Brenly Corey Brown Ryan Dent Leonel Escobar Bo Greenwell Justin Henry Jayson Hernandez Peter Hissey Mario Martinez Mike McCoy Heiker Meneses Carlos Rivero Ryan Roberts Jonathan Roof Brandon Snyder Matt Spring Stefan Welch
|
|
|
Post by geezergeek on Jun 18, 2014 19:17:52 GMT -5
Great list. I think it makes my point that there is a wealth of non top tier pre prospects in the system that are bunching up for 40 man roster eligibility next year. There is no downside to claiming a player and then releasing him following spring training. Several of these players would jump several positions on a number of bottom feeder teams top prospects lists like the Twins, SD, TB, AZ, Houston, MIA and the Cubs (especially with Theo). Of your list, it is my opinion that Diaz and Coyle would be drafted if left exposed.
|
|
|
Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 18, 2014 20:20:08 GMT -5
Most of them are not in need of being protected however. Meneses, Gibson, Dent are organizational utility types. Slightly inferior to a Yamaico Navaro all three. Boston wouldn;t need to use a 40 man spot on any of those. Coyle is maybe a notch better than those 3, but has a really bad bb/k ratio. Possibly he'll get protected.
The 1st 3, Shaw and *probably* Ramos. Have been intrigued by Kurcz since they got him from the Cubs, if he finishes up the season well, see him as a possibility, along with Ramos. None of the rest, they have too many others as it is, unless they start clearing out guys like Butler, Lavarnway, Wright etc..
|
|
|
Post by chavopepe2 on Jun 18, 2014 20:23:39 GMT -5
This is actually shaping up to be one of the easier rule 5s in the last few years.
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Jun 18, 2014 23:52:03 GMT -5
Guys who could definitely be off the 40 man prior to Rule 5 IMO
Herrera Capuano Drew AJP/Butler/Ross (Prob 2 of these, def a scenario where none of them remain) Peavy Wright Gomes
Definitely less of a crunch than in recent years past, though they still managed to protect Hassan even with a bigger crunch in 2012
|
|
|
Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 18, 2014 23:59:24 GMT -5
Guys who could definitely be off the 40 man prior to Rule 5 IMO Herrera Capuano Drew AJP/Butler/Ross (Prob 2 of these, def a scenario where none of them remain) Peavy Wright Gomes 4 of those are FA and won't need protecting anyway, though I can see Boston possibly looking at Ross as the backup again to help Tudo Vazquez along as the catcher for next season.
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Jun 19, 2014 0:07:41 GMT -5
Guys who could definitely be off the 40 man prior to Rule 5 IMO Herrera Capuano Drew AJP/Butler/Ross (Prob 2 of these, def a scenario where none of them remain) Peavy Wright Gomes 4 of those are FA and won't need protecting anyway, though I can see Boston possibly looking at Ross as the backup again to help Tudo Vazquez along as the catcher for next season. Ya, I know. But thats 4 40-man spots, with likely replacements already on the 40 man. Can't see the club needing that many FA's outside of maybe 1/2 higher tier guys and then 1/2 other filler guys I figure one of the three catchers above will still be there, potentially as the OD starter with Vazquez right behind him
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,882
|
Post by ericmvan on Jun 19, 2014 5:02:40 GMT -5
Since people are speculating on available space, here's one way to do it: simply look at the current optioned players, plus the guys who would be sent down if all the DL guys were activated and no one was released or traded, and then see how many of those guys seem likely to be on option again next year. That tells you the number of new guys on option that can be added.
So, we start by activating Doubront and Buchholz and optioning RDLR and Workman, and also activate Victorino, Carp, and Middlebrooks and option Holt, Hererra, and Cecchini (even though in practice not much of that is happening).
That gives you a list of 15 optioned players. Guys in red are projected to be in MLB next year, guys struck through are projected to be waived off the roster, and guys in italics are on the cusp.
Rubby De La Rosa Anthony Ranaudo Allen Webster Brandon Workman Steven Wright
Drake Britton Alex Wilson
Dan Butler
Ryan Lavarnway Christian Vazquez
Garin Cecchini Jonathan Herrera Brock Holt
Bryce Brentz
Alex Hassan
Folks keep talking about DFA'ing Herrera, but he has options left and it's always very helpful to have a backup SS who can ride the Pawtucket shuttle. He's a very good player relative to that role.
It's possible that only three of the four pitchers I highlighted will be on the Sox next year, but it's hard to see any of those guys starting next year in AAA the way they're pitching now.
Butler would be useful on the roster only in case there were an injury at catcher in the first half of the season, which would allow them to keep Swihart playing every day in AAA rather than being called up to sit on the bench. But if they have to waive Butler to clear a spot, he probably clears, and he can be selected back to the roster if that happens. So he's a luxury.
Britton and Lavarnway will be out of options. If Britton pitches better, he might claim a virtual spot on this list, which is to say the 40-man roster would include 26 guys who don't have practical options and only 14 who do.
Hassan can be expected to be waived, but should be counted as a "keep an eye on" guy as he could turn it around and put himself back in the picture.
So, guys repeating as being optioned are:
Wright, Wilson, Cecchini, Herrera, Brentz, probably Butler, maybe a virtual spot for Britton. Six plus or minus one.
That means they can add 9 +/- 1 to the 40-man, but when not pressed for room they like to leave a spot for a waiver claim or their own Rule 5 draftee.
Hence they have room for 7-10 additions, with 8 as the likeliest number.
So I see (in order) Hernandez, Couch, Ramirez, Celestino, Layne, and Scott competing for 2 to 5 slots, but probably 3.
So a likely scenario would be adding the first three, not adding the MLFA's (Celestino and Layne) and exposing Scott. But if any one of those three begs to be protected, they can certainly make room, and ditto should Hassan put himself back on the map, Diaz or Kurcz step forward, or De La Cruz or Gibson finish re-establishing themselves as prospects.
Only if really good things happen among 3 or more of the last 8 candidates will they have a dilemma.
|
|
|
Post by moonstone2 on Jun 19, 2014 6:50:42 GMT -5
To me there are only 2 guys.that. have.to be protected. Barnes and Swihart . The rest of them I could live with losing. Hill and or Layne might end up in the majors this year and thus might earn a spot on next year's team. I would like to keep Ramirez and Shaw too but wouldn't.cry. if they were lost.
|
|
|
Post by elguapo on Jun 19, 2014 8:07:56 GMT -5
This is actually shaping up to be one of the easier rule 5s in the last few years. Aside from Barnes, Swihart & Coyle, I would look at Hernandez as an add, if he has really made a breakthrough. I really like having AAA relief depth with options, and our LHRP picture for next season is cloudy. Shaw is 24 and hasn't hit at AAA. If that's still the case at the end of the season, I can't see using a roster spot on him. Hassan I think they would like to keep since he's a natural complement to Nava. Obviously not hitting this season but has the track record. Ramos, I don't know yet - he's a tough add for a major league team since he doesn't steal bases, and he would likely be eaten up by ML pitching.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 19, 2014 8:29:13 GMT -5
They're going to have all kinds of room on the 40:
- There is presently an open spot, but Lavarnway is on the 60-day DL, so call it even at 40. - The only members of the bullpen who aren't free agents are Mujica and Tazawa. Let's guess that two of Uehara, Miller, Breslow, Badenhop, and Capuano get replaced by pitchers already on the 40. (2 spots) - Stephen Drew probably gets replaced internally (1 spot) - Let's say one of Pierzynski/Ross gets replaced internally. The other spot is most likely to be either one getting re-signed or a different one-year MLB FA signing (1 spot) - Jake Peavy needs to throw 168 innings by the end of the year for his player option to vest. He won't. He'll be replaced internally, one would think. (1 spot) - I sincerely doubt that Jonny Gomes gets re-signed, but the question is whether he is replaced internally. I'll address this in a minute.
So at minimum this opens 5 spots on the 40. At this point, Lavarnway might be a DFA/mercy trade to another org candidate, so say 6 if they want it. This means there's room for the obvious adds: Barnes, Swihart, and probably Shaw, Ramos, and Coyle. And Mookie Betts will probably be on the 40 by the end of this year.
But the issue is that the team's outfield for next year is a big question. Perhaps they could sign Josh Willingham, but a trade is also a possibility, and such a trade would likely include at least one of the Triple-A starting pitchers, and perhaps another player or two on the 40. They might also have Betts step into that spot.
My point is that a) it's kind of hard to predict who exactly is coming off the 40 beyond the first five or so spots, but b) there really isn't going to be an issue protecting who they want to protect this offseason.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Jun 19, 2014 9:06:26 GMT -5
There wasn't a crunch last year. Almanzar is not a loss and there isn't this year either. Coyle doesn't need to be protected, there's no way he sticks on a major league roster and if he does it'd be horrible for him.
|
|
|
Post by elguapo on Jun 19, 2014 9:22:29 GMT -5
Coyle doesn't need to be protected, there's no way he sticks on a major league roster and if he does it'd be horrible for him. He's a 22 year old second baseman eviscerating AA pitching and our current #12 prospect. He could absolutely stick either as a second baseman, where the offensive bar is very low, or as a utility infielder, where the offensive bar is more of a limbo competition.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 19, 2014 9:25:16 GMT -5
There wasn't a crunch last year. Almanzar is not a loss and there isn't this year either. Coyle doesn't need to be protected, there's no way he sticks on a major league roster and if he does it'd be horrible for him. And the only reason Almanzar hasn't been returned is because he's on the DL. Thought about it and I think that Coyle is on the cusp. With him, it probably depends largely on how he does the rest of the way. I could see Noe Ramirez, who could certainly stick in the back of a bullpen next year, getting protected ahead of him.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jun 19, 2014 9:39:09 GMT -5
There wasn't a crunch last year. Almanzar is not a loss and there isn't this year either. Coyle doesn't need to be protected, there's no way he sticks on a major league roster and if he does it'd be horrible for him. And the only reason Almanzar hasn't been returned is because he's on the DL. Thought about it and I think that Coyle is on the cusp. With him, it probably depends largely on how he does the rest of the way. I could see Noe Ramirez, who could certainly stick in the back of a bullpen next year, getting protected ahead of him. Speaking of Almanzar, he begins rehabbing tomorrow. So I have to imagine we'll be getting him back at some point, unless the O's are figuring out how to DL him until September.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,948
|
Post by jimoh on Jun 19, 2014 12:45:26 GMT -5
Coyle doesn't need to be protected, there's no way he sticks on a major league roster and if he does it'd be horrible for him. He's a 22 year old second baseman eviscerating AA pitching and our current #12 prospect. He could absolutely stick either as a second baseman, where the offensive bar is very low, or as a utility infielder, where the offensive bar is more of a limbo competition. How many strikeouts would Coyle have in MLB next year? 24% while on fire this year, 30% last year.
|
|
|
Post by bigpupp on Jun 28, 2014 12:51:29 GMT -5
he takes up a 40-man spot unnecessarily for the next 12 months ... who is the player exposed to Rule 5 and lost as a result? ... and who here will be complaining in December? The next Sox player that is actually missed because he was taken in the rule 5 will be the 1st.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,882
|
Post by ericmvan on Jun 28, 2014 16:03:46 GMT -5
he takes up a 40-man spot unnecessarily for the next 12 months ... who is the player exposed to Rule 5 and lost as a result? ... and who here will be complaining in December? They were looking to have 4 to 6 spots open for the following: Shaw Ramos Couch Ramirez Celestino Layne Scott Kurcz De La Cruz My guess is that it costs Celestino, but as an MLFA. They were going to have to be creative to find room for Layne, Scott, or Kurcz anyway. Now, if they make a trade involving multiple guys off the 40-man (e.g., for a corner OFer), that will open some extra slots for more of the relievers. And that seems somewhat likely.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,882
|
Post by ericmvan on Jun 28, 2014 22:46:58 GMT -5
he takes up a 40-man spot unnecessarily for the next 12 months ... who is the player exposed to Rule 5 and lost as a result? ... and who here will be complaining in December? The next Sox player that is actually missed because he was taken in the rule 5 will be the 1st. When there's a 40-man roster squeeze, the guys you might regret losing are usually guys you waived off the roster to make room for the additions, not the Rule 5 draftees. At the start of 2013 ST, there were eight players on other 40-man rosters that had been squeezed off of ours: Scott Atchison (released) David Carpenter (waived) Josh Fields (Rule 5) Rich Hill (free agent that would have gladly re-signed ) Michael Olmsted (mlfa) Ryan Pressly (Rule 5) Sandy Rosario (claimed, then waived) Danny Valencia (sold) Carpenter, Rosario, and Valencia actually had quite good seasons. I don't think anyone could have possibly predicted that Carpenter and Rosario would have been the 2 good guys of the 7 lost relievers. Guys I see us punting on this year are Britton, Butler, and Lavarnway. Add Celestino, Layne, and Scott and chances are one or two of these guys will be solid next year, or eventually ... the problem is identifying which one.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Jun 28, 2014 23:12:08 GMT -5
I think Butler could be an MLB back up catcher and a league average starter with good D or slightly better in a peak year.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 29, 2014 7:13:23 GMT -5
he takes up a 40-man spot unnecessarily for the next 12 months ... who is the player exposed to Rule 5 and lost as a result? ... and who here will be complaining in December? They were looking to have 4 to 6 spots open for the following: Shaw Ramos Couch Ramirez Celestino Layne Scott Kurcz De La Cruz My guess is that it costs Celestino, but as an MLFA. They were going to have to be creative to find room for Layne, Scott, or Kurcz anyway. Now, if they make a trade involving multiple guys off the 40-man (e.g., for a corner OFer), that will open some extra slots for more of the relievers. And that seems somewhat likely. Tommy Layne is a free agent after the year. He was a one year minor league free agent signing and is 29 years old.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,882
|
Post by ericmvan on Jun 29, 2014 8:11:26 GMT -5
They were looking to have 4 to 6 spots open for the following: Shaw Ramos Couch Ramirez Celestino Layne Scott Kurcz De La Cruz My guess is that it costs Celestino, but as an MLFA. They were going to have to be creative to find room for Layne, Scott, or Kurcz anyway. Now, if they make a trade involving multiple guys off the 40-man (e.g., for a corner OFer), that will open some extra slots for more of the relievers. And that seems somewhat likely. Tommy Layne is a free agent after the year. He was a one year minor league free agent signing and is 29 years old. Good catch. I had it right the first time I ran this down and then simply forgot where he stood. What confused me is that he's an mlfa who has options left. A lot of those guys who are good are guys who burned their options already, and hence aren't interesting candidates for 40-man spots unless they play outrageously well. IIRC, Darnell McDonald was an exception in terms of getting onto a 40-man and sticking there a bit after he fell into that limbo.
|
|
|
Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jun 29, 2014 8:24:41 GMT -5
My guess is that it costs Celestino, but as an MLFA. They were going to have to be creative to find room for Layne, Scott, or Kurcz anyway. Now, if they make a trade involving multiple guys off the 40-man (e.g., for a corner OFer), that will open some extra slots for more of the relievers. And that seems somewhat likely. Tommy Layne is a free agent after the year. He was a one year minor league free agent signing and is 29 years old. Layne is a MINOR LEAGUE free agent in October. If the Sox deem him of value, putting him on the 40-man before October keeps him around until April, when they'll hafta play him or option him or waive him. The Layne Fan Club is hoping he gets the selection. (Of course, he is minor league minimum for 2015.)
Ely and Ryan Roberts are in the same circumstance, except out of options. Roberts is arb eligible. Play them in BOS this fall and then keep 'em or let 'em go.
|
|
|