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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jun 29, 2014 8:33:23 GMT -5
Tommy Layne is a free agent after the year. He was a one year minor league free agent signing and is 29 years old. Good catch. I had it right the first time I ran this down and then simply forgot where he stood. What confused me is that he's an mlfa who has options left. A lot of those guys who are good are guys who burned their options already, and hence aren't interesting candidates for 40-man spots unless they play outrageously well. IIRC, Darnell McDonald was an exception in terms of getting onto a 40-man and sticking there a bit after he fell into that limbo. Van, you had it right the second time. Keep Layne for 2015.
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Post by jmei on Jun 29, 2014 8:51:32 GMT -5
Guys like Layne, Ely, Roberts, etc. are the spitting image of replacement-level talent. Every once in a while, one from their ranks turns out to be a legit player, but most of the time players of their ilk are freely available on waivers and as minor league free agents. Even if you protect them this fall, chances are that they'll be the first ones DFAed when they sign veteran MLB free agents or need to call somebody up next spring.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 29, 2014 8:56:23 GMT -5
Let me tweak this, with additions in bold: he takes up a 40-man spot unnecessarily for the next 12 months ... who is the player exposed to Rule 5 and lost as a result? ... and who here will be complaining in December? [Assuming Swihart, Barnes, and Coyle are givens ...] They were looking to have 4 to 6 spots open for the following: Shaw Ramos Diaz Hernandez
Couch Ramirez Celestino (mlfa) Layne (mlfa) Gibson (mlfa)
Scott Kurcz De La Cruz Some extreme longshots to keep an eye on in case they have crazy second halves: Carson Blair (mlfa), Jose Vinicio, Pete Ruiz (mlfa). Ely and Hill are out of options and would only factor in if they project to make the 25-man next year, which seems unlikely.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 29, 2014 12:52:58 GMT -5
The likes of Tommy Layne are pretty much never protected by the Red Sox. Look at it this way: if he's unable to pitch himself onto the 40 by the end of the season, then they won't protect him.
Also, the suggestion that Drake Britton is going to be a casualty to the 40-man roster is nuts. Butler mmmmmmmaybe, Lavarnway perhaps, but not Britton. His stuff is down this year, but my guess is it's something physical going on.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 29, 2014 13:44:26 GMT -5
The likes of Tommy Layne are pretty much never protected by the Red Sox. Look at it this way: if he's unable to pitch himself onto the 40 by the end of the season, then they won't protect him. Also, the suggestion that Drake Britton is going to be a casualty to the 40-man roster is nuts. Butler mmmmmmmaybe, Lavarnway perhaps, but not Britton. His stuff is down this year, but my guess is it's something physical going on. He'll be out of options, so he can't be one of next year's optioned players, and it's going to be tough to find him a spot on the 25-man. Still, he's part of the wiggle room when I said they'd have room for 4 to 6 more guys; if they bring him to ST before deciding what to do with him, that's a -1 slot. Lavarnway will be out of options as well. Butler's only function next year would be to keep Swihart playing every day should they have a catcher go on the DL in April or May, which is unlikely. They could fill his AAA backup role with almost anyone. Really, if you protect your AAA backup C while shedding useful players, something's not right.
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Post by jmei on Jun 29, 2014 14:11:40 GMT -5
I'm curious why you think Layne or Hernandez or Scott or are more likely to be useful than Butler. They're all replacement-level-ish players, but Butler would be first on the depth chart if either of the major league catchers get injured, while those guys would be, what, somewhere between fourth and sixth on the Pawtucket reliever depth chart? Hinojosa, Britton, and Wilson are undoutedly ahead of them; guys like N. Ramirez (who I think will be protected) and Villarreal (remember him?) might be as well, and there's a small chance that guys like Workman or Webster or Wright will be in the bullpen mix by ST 2015.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 29, 2014 14:21:22 GMT -5
My current working assumptions:
Currently 39 players on the 40-man list, plus Lavarnway (who is on the 60-day DL)
Free agents at the end of 2014 (9): Lester, Peavy, Uehara, Badenhop, Miller, Drew, AJP, Ross, Gomes
Team option at the end of 2014 (1): Breslow
I will assume Breslow will be retained and that one other FA (assume Lester or Uehara) will be retained. I also assume Lavarnway and Wilson will be DFA'd.
Therefore, I start with the assumption that there are 30 spots filled on the 40-man roster, with a projected lineup as follows:
SP: Lackey, Buchholz, Workman, RDLR, [Lester/Doubront] RP: Mujica, Breslow, Tazawa, Britton, [open], [open], [Uehara/Doubront] PP: Betts, Nava, Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, Victorino, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, Vazquez B: Butler, Bradley, Jr., Holt, Carp AAA (with number of options remaining through the end of 2014): Webster (1), Wright (1), Hassan (1), Herrera (1 or 2), Ranaudo (2), Cecchini (2), Brentz (2)
At least two of the ten 40-man spots will be filled by a FA bullpen arms under this exercise, so that leaves a maximum of eight 40-man spots to be filled internally.
I assume Barnes and Swihart will be added, along with Coyle and L.Diaz.
That leaves four spots for consideration, with the primary candidates being Shaw, H.Ramos, KDLC, N.Ramirez, Celestino, Kurcz and Scott. (note: I would put Layne, Hill and Ely into a separate bucket of ST invitees with opt-outs, rather than putting them on the 40-man roster in November.)
My current inclination is to pick Shaw and three of the Portland relievers, probably leaving Ramos and KDLC exposed (don't see either sticking) and Scott (hope he flies under the radar), but I'd like to see how the second half of the season goes, and the AFL, before making final decisions.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 29, 2014 16:07:05 GMT -5
I'm curious why you think Layne or Hernandez or Scott or are more likely to be useful than Butler. They're all replacement-level-ish players, but Butler would be first on the depth chart if either of the major league catchers get injured, while those guys would be, what, somewhere between fourth and sixth on the Pawtucket reliever depth chart? Hinojosa, Britton, and Wilson are undoutedly ahead of them; guys like N. Ramirez (who I think will be protected) and Villarreal (remember him?) might be as well, and there's a small chance that guys like Workman or Webster or Wright will be in the bullpen mix by ST 2015. I don't. By my math, I'm dumping Butler so I can protect 1 (maybe 2) of Couch, Hernandez, Ramirez, Celestino, Gibson, etc., with Layne and Scott near the bottom of that list. I think the odds of Butler being the most valuable guy long-term of that group are negligible. Hernandez will keep striking guys out for some unknown reason, or Couch will continue his smoke and mirrors up to Pawtucket, or Gibson will never stop hitting and suddenly look like a potential Holt, or one of the relievers will really step it up in the second half ... one of these things is likely to happen, and you'll have a guy who looks to have a career, not just be a replacement player for 2015. The fate of guys like Butler, Britton, Lavarnway, Wilson, conceivably even Hassan depends on how many of those things happen -- could be zero, could be multiple. Villareal is out of options and therefore has almost no chance; he'd have to pitch his way onto the likely 25.
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Post by jmei on Jun 29, 2014 16:30:40 GMT -5
That's not quite the right calculus, though. Even if you think those guys have more long-term potential than Butler, you weigh that against the likelihood that (a) they'll get taken in the R5 draft and (b) stick on that team's roster the entire season. (Indeed, I've always thought that the worst-case scenario is that you add a guy before R5 but are then forced to DFA him sometime the following season, because then any team with an open 40-man spot can then claim him but no longer has to keep him on the roster the whole season.)
I don't think any guy on that list (Couch, Hernandez, Ramirez, Celestino, Gibson, etc.) has a 50%+ chance of both being taken in R5 and sticking on a 40-man roster all season, so you'd have to think they have more (perhaps significantly more) than twice the long-term potential of guys like Butler or Britton or Wilson or Hassan. I just don't see that as the case.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 29, 2014 16:39:35 GMT -5
If Mookie stays up for good, he doesn't force anyone off the 40-man. He forces the Red Sox to sign one less free agent next year or someone else off the roster like Carp.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 29, 2014 16:43:51 GMT -5
That's not quite the right calculus, though. Even if you think those guys have more long-term potential than Butler, you weigh that against the likelihood that (a) they'll get taken in the R5 draft and (b) stick on that team's roster the entire season. (Indeed, I've always thought that the worst-case scenario is that you add a guy before R5 but are then forced to DFA him sometime the following season, because then any team with an open 40-man spot can then claim him but no longer has to keep him on the roster the whole season.) I don't think any guy on that list (Couch, Hernandez, Ramirez, Celestino, Gibson, etc.) has a 50%+ chance of both being taken in R5 and sticking on a 40-man roster all season, so you'd have to think they have more (perhaps significantly more) than twice the long-term potential of guys like Butler or Britton or Wilson or Hassan. I just don't see that as the case. If you have 8 guys, each of whom, right now, has an 8% chance of needing to be protected, the odds are 50-50 that you'll want to protect one. You're making the classic mistake of looking at the mean projection for each guy, one by one, while ignoring the error bars. When you include the error bars, there is a guy you'll want to protect. We just have no idea which one it is, yet. (Except it's Gibson .)
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Post by jmei on Jun 29, 2014 17:21:11 GMT -5
Yeah, but you have to pick a guy to keep ex ante, which pretty much always entails keeping the guy who has the highest average value. Considering the factors I mention above, that's almost certainly the incumbent guys, especially because Butler or Wilson might be the one who hits his positive-end error band.
It just feels a little what-have-you-done-for-me-lately/shiny-toy-syndrome to say that Chris Hernandez has more median value or upside than Butler or Britton. Some of their prospect luster has worn off, but they're still useful players with some upside.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jun 29, 2014 20:02:27 GMT -5
The Layne Fan Club is glad to hear that there seem to be plenty of open spots for deserving players. The plan for Layne is to be summoned to Boston by August 1 and then he proves his value over the remaining 2 months.
Next spring, he is a "major league ready" relief pitcher on option, which is a valuable thing to have. Especially if Britton crashes and burns. Obviously, if Breslow is a goner.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 29, 2014 22:35:59 GMT -5
I'm curious why you think Layne or Hernandez or Scott or are more likely to be useful than Butler. They're all replacement-level-ish players, but Butler would be first on the depth chart if either of the major league catchers get injured, while those guys would be, what, somewhere between fourth and sixth on the Pawtucket reliever depth chart? Hinojosa, Britton, and Wilson are undoutedly ahead of them; guys like N. Ramirez (who I think will be protected) and Villarreal (remember him?) might be as well, and there's a small chance that guys like Workman or Webster or Wright will be in the bullpen mix by ST 2015. I don't. By my math, I'm dumping Butler so I can protect 1 (maybe 2) of Couch, Hernandez, Ramirez, Celestino, Gibson, etc., with Layne and Scott near the bottom of that list. I think the odds of Butler being the most valuable guy long-term of that group are negligible. Hernandez will keep striking guys out for some unknown reason, or Couch will continue his smoke and mirrors up to Pawtucket, or Gibson will never stop hitting and suddenly look like a potential Holt, or one of the relievers will really step it up in the second half ... one of these things is likely to happen, and you'll have a guy who looks to have a career, not just be a replacement player for 2015. The fate of guys like Butler, Britton, Lavarnway, Wilson, conceivably even Hassan depends on how many of those things happen -- could be zero, could be multiple. Villareal is out of options and therefore has almost no chance; he'd have to pitch his way onto the likely 25. I don't want to say this in a mean way, but I'm incredibly confused. Are you really insinuating that Couch, Hernandez, Ramirez (who I hope they'll protect, btw), Celestino, and Gibson are going to be more valuable than Butler, Britton, Lavarnway, Wilson, and maybe even Hassan? Keith Couch is in his second full season in Portland. His results this year are middling. Chris Hernandez made it to Triple-A in 2012. He was actually demoted last season because he was the expendable player of the 25 men on Pawtucket's roster when they needed a roster spot. He's an absolutely classic AAAA guy. Celestino may have something, but it's not something that's going to stick in the majors all year I don't think. It'd be nice if they had room for him, but he strikes me as an up-and-down guy. Gibson is in his third full season in Portland. He hasn't hit since 2009. Now stop and re-read the previous sentence before continuing. He is hitting for the first time in five seasons. There is literally no way he's going to get taken in the Rule 5 draft. Now, I admit that if Butler weren't already on the 40-man, I wouldn't have him as a guy they should add to it. I think it'd be tough for him to hold down a job in the majors all year. But he's good enough as a catch-and-throw guy behind the plate that he might stick, and I tell you what, if all a team has to do is claim him when he's put on waivers, he's long gone. You yourself made the point that it's not just who you lose in R5, but who you lose making room to protect guys. It's much easier to lose a guy by taking him off the 40-man than by choosing not to protect them in the first place and losing them in Rule 5. Same point goes for everyone else. At some point I'll write out a projection.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 29, 2014 23:03:24 GMT -5
I'd like to chime in on how wise it is to protect Derrik Gibson with a 40 man spot. He's of no more use than is Ryan Dent, nor was Heiker Menese before him when Boston had his stock valued a bit higher prior to this season.. Those 3 are organizational utility players and nothing more. If any want to leave via MiLFA rules? (which Gibson can this winter), so be it, the team can sign any other if they don't fill the role, or allow Asuaje,Gragnani etc.. To fill that role in the future.
40 man spots are for real prospects.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 30, 2014 8:11:19 GMT -5
I don't. By my math, I'm dumping Butler so I can protect 1 (maybe 2) of Couch, Hernandez, Ramirez, Celestino, Gibson, etc., with Layne and Scott near the bottom of that list. I think the odds of Butler being the most valuable guy long-term of that group are negligible. Hernandez will keep striking guys out for some unknown reason, or Couch will continue his smoke and mirrors up to Pawtucket, or Gibson will never stop hitting and suddenly look like a potential Holt, or one of the relievers will really step it up in the second half ... one of these things is likely to happen, and you'll have a guy who looks to have a career, not just be a replacement player for 2015. The fate of guys like Butler, Britton, Lavarnway, Wilson, conceivably even Hassan depends on how many of those things happen -- could be zero, could be multiple. Villareal is out of options and therefore has almost no chance; he'd have to pitch his way onto the likely 25. I don't want to say this in a mean way, but I'm incredibly confused. Are you really insinuating that Couch, Hernandez, Ramirez (who I hope they'll protect, btw), Celestino, and Gibson are going to be more valuable than Butler, Britton, Lavarnway, Wilson, and maybe even Hassan? Oh, COME THE FUCK ON. I just wrote a long reply which disappeared. Something I see in other people's posts as well. A big-time ProBoards bug that needs to be fixed. I may re-type it as some point, but the key point is that no plan for the future, in any realm of human existence, works by extrapolating all the variables to their likeliest outcome, and that's what everyone is doing here. A proper Rule 5 plan with two months left in the season, and potential breakouts in progress (Hernandez and Gibson; Hernandez's boost in K rate since May 28 has a 1 in 5116 chance of being random) and others conceivable, has a designated last guy that you're willing to waive and a list of guys you're watching, or one or more open spots and a list of guys that might fill them. That's all I'm doing when I list a bunch of guys but not Butler or Lavarnway. (Hassan, Wilson, and maybe Britton are in.)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 30, 2014 8:22:14 GMT -5
I'd like to chime in on how wise it is to protect Derrik Gibson with a 40 man spot. He's of no more use than is Ryan Dent, nor was Heiker Menese before him when Boston had his stock valued a bit higher prior to this season.. Those 3 are organizational utility players and nothing more. If any want to leave via MiLFA rules? (which Gibson can this winter), so be it, the team can sign any other if they don't fill the role, or allow Asuaje,Gragnani etc.. To fill that role in the future. 40 man spots are for real prospects. Derrik Gibson, tools out the wazoo, needs to go 1/3, 2 BB tonight to have a .400 / .500 month of June. Not .400 OBP, .500 SA. .400 BA, .500 OBP. For a month. Neither he previously, nor Dent, nor Meneses, nor, for that matter, I would bet, Brock Holt, has ever done anything resembling that in their careers. I am not claiming to know for certain that this doesn't represent a breakout (it started more or less when they moved him to CF and leadoff), and no one else should, either.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 30, 2014 8:51:28 GMT -5
Eric, I'm sorry if you think I'm being dense here, but at the very least, am I wrong that you are advocating the removal of Butler for one of those players? Because, at the very least, that's what I read your post as advocating.
I don't really care the mathematical chances of a player's stats for a month being random. That kind of thing happens all the time. Maybe the player doesn't quite get to a. 400 average and .500 obp for the month, but inconsequential players get hot like that all the time. Jeremias Pineda comes to mind. Tim Federowicz hit .442 in June 2009. Would love to hear the chances of that having been random.
Gibson is hitting 479 on balls in play this month while hitting 44.8% ground balls and 26.9% line drives, both high. So my guess is that, yes, he's hitting the ball well, but the numbers are driven higher because he's fast and can beat out many of those ground balls. If we're going to freak out about his great June, why can we ignore the 600 OPS in May?
In case anyone is wondering, last 400/500 month was Nava in June 2011.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 30, 2014 9:40:40 GMT -5
Eric, I'm sorry if you think I'm being dense here, but at the very least, am I wrong that you are advocating the removal of Butler for one of those players? Because, at the very least, that's what I read your post as advocating. I don't really care the mathematical chances of a player's stats for a month being random. That kind of thing happens all the time. Maybe the player doesn't quite get to a. 400 average and .500 obp for the month, but inconsequential players get hot like that all the time. Jeremias Pineda comes to mind. Tim Federowicz hit .442 in June 2009. Would love to hear the chances of that having been random. Gibson is hitting 479 on balls in play this month while hitting 44.8% ground balls and 26.9% line drives, both high. So my guess is that, yes, he's hitting the ball well, but the numbers are driven higher because he's fast and can beat out many of those ground balls. If we're going to freak out about his great June, why can we ignore the 600 OPS in May? In case anyone is wondering, last 400/500 month was Nava in June 2011. Because I think Butler has very little value, I'm advocating being prepared to DFA him on the chance that someone is worthier. I'd put that chance at 60%. Gibson's month is interesting because he's an ex-top 10 prospect and the breakout happened simultaneous with both a position and batting order switch. No, I would never protect him if he fell into a drainage ditch tonight and his season ended -- and having said that, I can see how silly my advocacy of him must seem to those who don't have the error bars on people built into their heads, as I seem to. I can remember thinking that Chip Ambres might be someone worth paying serious attention to, and for a while I was all over Charlie Zink. I got flack from folks who didn't get that my number-crunching was about their being interesting and worth your attention. This MAY be something, not is. And I got an equal amount of flack when I did the same thing with a AAA SP who was obviously garbage because we claimed him off of waivers from a bad team and then passed him through waivers at the end of ST, since he was out of options. And that, of course, was Bronson Arroyo. And you can't make yourself aware of the Arroyos, when you ought to be, without also making yourself aware of the Ambreses. There are at least 8 Chip Ambres for every Bronson Arroyo. But this system right now has 8 or more guys I'm watching because they're interesting, and I think it's somewhat likelier than not that come September 15 I'll like one of them better than Butler. I just don't know yet who it'll be. Is that clear? (Oh, to answer your implied question, BABIP-driven good stretches very rarely test out as statistically significant. I haven't even bothered with Gibson's month, which is interesting almost entirely because of his pedigree -- remember that Callis kept him in BA's Top 30 even after his first awful year, which you almost never see in a deep system like ours.)
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Post by Jonathan Singer on Jun 30, 2014 13:28:59 GMT -5
Eric,
Gibson on this site was last ranked in the top 20 4 years ago. One good month does not make someone worthy of a 40 man spot. There are prospects with higher upside worth keeping than him and that is not a disrespect to Gibson but pure fact. He has been in Portland for three straight years. Usually when that happens you aren't a prospect worth keeping for Rule 5. The players you think warrant a 40 man spot (Couch, Hernandez, Ramirez, Celestino, Gibson, etc., with Layne and Scott).
None of them outside of Noe Ramirez should even sniff a 40 man spot this year.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 30, 2014 13:44:49 GMT -5
I could see Layne being called up in August or September and then tendered a contract if he shows something, depending on how the roster construction plays out around him. If he's not promoted in-season, though, he won't be added after.
What is going on with Drake Britton? If nothing is physically wrong with him, then he's a healthy 25-year-old reliever in Triple-A going into July with more walks than strikeouts. If something is wrong with him, and he hasn't come forward with it, that's in some ways more concerning. I don't see him being designated outright, but the Sox could move him as part of a bigger deal. He may just be in need of new scenery.
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Post by widewordofsport on Jun 30, 2014 14:48:39 GMT -5
Lavarnway was Babe Ruth back in 2011(?) . I dont even think Coyle is a lock at this point, given that I can't see him sticking on a 40 man with his projected K rate at MLB next year.
Im with Chris.. We spend a lot of time thinking about guyys who get hot briefly for R5D protection, and exactly 0 have mattered in the end.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 30, 2014 18:02:55 GMT -5
Coyle leads the Eastern League with a 1.059 OPS as a 22-year-old second baseman. He's probably not that good in reality, but there's no way the Red Sox can risk losing a prospect like that who is so close. Even with a high K rate he has the power and defense to essentially be replacement level right now. That's particularly true given the fact that there's not a real roster crunch. He's certainly better than the various MLFA types being discussed above.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 30, 2014 20:08:31 GMT -5
I could see Layne being called up in August or September and then tendered a contract if he shows something, depending on how the roster construction plays out around him. If he's not promoted in-season, though, he won't be added after. What is going on with Drake Britton? If nothing is physically wrong with him, then he's a healthy 25-year-old reliever in Triple-A going into July with more walks than strikeouts. If something is wrong with him, and he hasn't come forward with it, that's in some ways more concerning. I don't see him being designated outright, but the Sox could move him as part of a bigger deal. He may just be in need of new scenery. I can see Boston tendering britton next season and him even having a chance at making the roster, the same reason Rich Hill is hanging around, even though he is well past his opt out as a NE native. Miller is a FA, Breslow's 4m club option. The team will be going from being very deep in LH relievers who were good (Capuano earlier this season) to having none, which could leave the team scrambling to Britton, who was fair at it on the MLB scene. Could the demotion have played a part in his troubles? Possible, it's happened before, same with medical issues, though I would think hanging onto him for at least a few more weeks into the 2015 season and over the winter next year is worth the gamble if they do cut ties with Breslow, lose Miller and find themselves LH reliever poor.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 1, 2014 4:36:26 GMT -5
Eric, Gibson on this site was last ranked in the top 20 4 years ago. One good month does not make someone worthy of a 40 man spot. There are prospects with higher upside worth keeping than him and that is not a disrespect to Gibson but pure fact. He has been in Portland for three straight years. Usually when that happens you aren't a prospect worth keeping for Rule 5. The players you think warrant a 40 man spot (Couch, Hernandez, Ramirez, Celestino, Gibson, etc., with Layne and Scott). None of them outside of Noe Ramirez should even sniff a 40 man spot this year. You guys are doing a great job but we don't even know the possible trade consequences yet. If things remain the same, this is the viewpoint I agree with most and I also think that Wilkerson is a better player than Gibson just not as versatile but I don't think he should be on the 40 man either. As far as Britton goes, if there's no pain, it's also not out of the question that they've done something to change the way his arm moves when delivering a pitch. It wouldn't be unusual for that to cause a velocity and effectiveness decrease while the new muscle groups gain strength. No way I'd cut Butler, I view him as the next three year's taxi catcher who is familiar with the majority of Boston's staff.
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