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Post by larrycook on Aug 2, 2014 22:33:07 GMT -5
I am not sure middlebrooks or Bradley has what it takes to play mlb.
If they could be packaged with a few pitchers for a power left handed hitting outfielder, that would solve a bit of the rule 5 crunch we are facing.
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Post by Steve Henley on Aug 2, 2014 22:50:15 GMT -5
I am not sure middlebrooks or Bradley has what it takes to play mlb. If they could be packaged with a few pitchers for a power left handed hitting outfielder, that would solve a bit of the rule 5 crunch we are facing. There is no question Bradley is a major league player. He may not be a star, but he's easily a 2-3 win player based on his defense.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 3, 2014 1:39:55 GMT -5
Verdugo - 27YO in AAA, midseason pickup from KC, could get audition as lefty bullpen guy this year, three average pitches, looks more like AAAA to me Gibson (#54 prospect) (MLFA if not added) - having a career year at age 24 in AAA and has some provenance, but if the Red Sox believed in him, he would have been promoted permanently to AAA, cannot see him being protected These are the only two guys on whom I think we disagree at all. Verdugo has a track record of being dramatically better as a reliever than a starter, and in a very SSS it's happening again. I don't think it's possible to say where he ranks yet, except that he's in the middle of the pack with the biggest variance. I believe Gibson had already been promoted at the time you posted. He's just two years from being called the best athlete in the system by Callis, so I don't know why the team wouldn't believe that his breakout year is worth taking seriously. Whether he's in danger of being offered an MLB contract by someone else will of course depend quite a bit on how he does at Pawtucket in this final month, but given that all his options are left, I think the bar may not be all that high.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 3, 2014 8:30:01 GMT -5
Two points on Gibson:
1. His locker is reportedly still there in Portland, so I believe that he goes back as soon as Betts is optioned.
2. Even though he would have options, he would still have to stick on a 25-man roster all year. While he could be hidden as the 13th position player, it's not that easy to do so for five months.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 4, 2014 6:34:36 GMT -5
Two points on Gibson: 1. His locker is reportedly still there in Portland, so I believe that he goes back as soon as Betts is optioned. When is Betts being optioned, though? When Johnson comes off the DL? I'm still wondering why he's up here, pinch-running and playing only versus LHP, when he could be at Pawtucket playing every day (and maybe at SS and/or 3B to boot). No, he's an mlfa. Given his pedigree and his performance at AA, he'll almost certainly get an MLB roster deal, and then he'll have three option years to build on his tools and turn himself into a better version of Willie Bloomquist -- although I think that'll happen in a year or less if it happens at all. All our other potential additions who are mlfa's are relief pitchers (including perhaps Villareal who seems nearly ready to rejoin Pawucket) -- an entirely ordinary commodity, of which you can only use so many. A guy who can play everywhere, steal a base, and maybe hit a little, is not. I'd like to keep that guy in the organization a while. I suspect that there will be one or two multi-player deals that will ease the logjam, anyway.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 4, 2014 20:40:37 GMT -5
I would agree with almost everything said here but I don't see how a guy who. won't start is a lock for anything. In an organization with this many arms. Adam's analysis has him fighting Celestino for the final roster spot. Celestino has the big fastball and AAA experience and he's gone if you don't protect him wheras Ramirez might not be. I think consistent minor league performance counts for something, and Ramirez has performed better than Celestino at pretty much every stage of the ladder. Celestino has never had a sub-3.00 ERA season, while the last time Ramirez had an above-3.00 ERA season was his first year in Greenville in 2012. Celestino might have the flashier stuff, but Ramirez has better command and secondaries. Maybe Celestino has a higher ceiling, but I have no doubt in my mind that Ramirez is the better present player, and that's the guy I'd protect. The above is quoted from the Noe Ramirez thread. What I have to say has to do more with Celestino and the 2015 roster construction than with Ramirez, so I'm swinging my response into here. I'm not so positive Ramirez is the better major league pitcher right now. I like him more than I like most guys who convert to the bullpen in Single-A, but I still see him as a low leverage type right now. He's a guy with two pitches that are probably already close to average, and his command and control are very very good. Basically, he's the sort of dude who chews up Double-A. Which he's doing. Some of those guys DO succeed at the major league level though, and Ramirez is doing a lot to earn his shot. Celestino, meanwhile, has been more of a project. When I saw him in past years, his fastball was electric, but there were two major problems. First, his command of it was non-existent. But second, and maybe more importantly, was that he was the anti-Henry Owens in terms letting the batter see the ball. When he loaded, he brought the baseball very far behind his back, giving batters a great, long view of the ball. So while someone like Owens' fastball will play up from 92 because of the short look, Celestino's would play down from his radar readings. This year, that seems to have changed. His arm action seems much tighter (if that's the proper word - I'm not a scout by any means). Command is still a serious issue, but he's able to pump the fastball by people because it now plays to its velocity. With that in mind, I don't think his problems in 2013 and prior bear worrying much about - I do think he is a fundamentally different pitcher, and that's reflected in the fact his K% has taken a huge jump without a corresponding one in velocity. It's normal for us to look at A vs. B in terms of being protected, but I doubt the Red Sox really are. They'll evaluate Celestino and Ramirez independently. That's why I put little stock in the fact that Ramirez hasn't been promoted yet while Celestino has. Where Celestino is going to be a MLFA, they may feel the need to take a look at him against the stronger competition. On the other hand, I'm guessing they already have a pretty good idea of where they stand on Ramirez and whether or not he's worth protecting and whether he'd be missed if another team nabbed him. If it comes down to the team having 41 guys they'd like to keep, then maybe it will come down to Celestino vs. Ramirez for the last spot, but rarely does it happen that way in practice.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 4, 2014 22:00:48 GMT -5
Two points on Gibson: 1. His locker is reportedly still there in Portland, so I believe that he goes back as soon as Betts is optioned. When is Betts being optioned, though? When Johnson comes off the DL? I'm still wondering why he's up here, pinch-running and playing only versus LHP, when he could be at Pawtucket playing every day (and maybe at SS and/or 3B to boot). Could be as soon as Tuesday, given that Corey Brown is reportedly on his way up. I'm guessing Hembree takes the spot Wright vacated today. If not, Johnson is coming off the DL Thursday reportedly after rehabbing in Pawtucket Tuesday and Wednesday. Pretty much no chance Betts is still up after that.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 5, 2014 23:03:44 GMT -5
OK, what the heck. Here goes:
Current roster is at 38 + Lavarnway
Returning or will be replaced by MLB-out-of-org player (32): Ortiz, Vazquez, Napoli, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, Craig, Bradley, Cespedes Holt, Nava, Betts, Buchholz, Kelly, Webster, Ranaudo, RDLR, Workman, Breslow, Hembree, Mujica, Tazawa Wright, Wilson, Brentz, Hassan, Butler, Cecchini, Herrera, Layne, Escobar, Britton
Free agents, re-signed (or replaced out-of-org) (2) : Ross, Uehara
Traded/waived/otherwise removed (3): Victorino (or another OF), Lavarnway, Brown Free agents, not replaced (2): Badenhop, Johnson
So that rough, admittedly conservative-as-to-removing-players projection has the 40-man at 34. They may need to add a bench bat in this projection, but let's hold off for a second.
Adds, Locks (4): Barnes, Swihart, Coyle, Rodriguez Adds, Probable (1): Shaw Adds, Borderline (4): Ramirez, Celestino, L. Diaz, Ramos Probably not added, but fringy: Aro, De La Cruz, Villarreal, Gibson, Almanzar Probably not: Ely, Verdugo
So in this projection, one of the "borderline" candidates can be protected. However, we know that this is not how things will go down. The team will, in theory, need to acquire at least one starting pitcher, probably at least one if not two relievers, and a bench player. It may trade off pieces and it will need to decide on some of the borderline DFA candidates (Herrera, Britton, Layne? - although I'd add that it's harder to pass a guy through waivers after a DFA than it is to expose them to R5 in most cases).
I think the best way to leave it right now is that Barnes, Swihart, Coyle, and Rodriguez are safe without any maneuvering, Shaw probably is too, but the other guys on the bubble may be at the whims of how the club goes about other moves.
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Post by moonstone2 on Aug 14, 2014 5:01:15 GMT -5
To revsit Chris' analysis:
Wilson: Heading into final.option year hasn't pitched all that well.this year never had flashy stuff so how is he on par with Celestino or Ramirez. DFA and I think he'll get through if you want to.keep him.
Shaw: Though Shaw has hit well this year you have to ask yourself if he's ever going to play regularly for Boston. You can always find AAA 1b, so if.he has no.chance at being the 1b in 2016 you should not waste a spot.
Layne and Breslow - I can't see them keeping both guys as they are a bit redundant. Breslow has an option for 4m but given how poor he has been this season they can't pay him that. I would resign him for 2/4 with maybe a vesting option of some sort. Layne goes under that scenario.
So that means all four borderline guys can stay.
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Post by Jonathan Singer on Aug 14, 2014 6:27:57 GMT -5
I'd rather let Breslow go and pay Layne at the minimum. I don't think Breslow has much left.
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Post by mabrowndog on Aug 14, 2014 9:01:07 GMT -5
I'm with Jon. Layne hasn't been Andrew Miller, but he doesn't have to be. Breslow is superfluous and expensive.
I'm also coming around on adding Gibson. His flexibility makes him an ideal shuttle guy for the 40-man, even if his bat might not yet be ready for the show.
Not to place too much emphasis on SSS but Ramirez is trending downward of late, and I'm still very much on the fence regarding Celestino's future. Workman is looking more & more like he's bullpen bound for 2015, and I believe the Sox would use Barnes and even Wright in short-term relief next season before relying on either Ramirez or Celestino. Acquiring Hembree also knocked both of those guys down a peg on the totem pole, so protecting either one doesn't make much sense the way things look at present.
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Post by azblue on Aug 14, 2014 9:17:04 GMT -5
Why waste a roster spot on Gibson who is a non-prospect, will not be drafted by another team and will only play a major league for Boston if there is an unprecedented series of injuries?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 14, 2014 10:30:49 GMT -5
Why waste a roster spot on Gibson who is a non-prospect, will not be drafted by another team and will only play a major league for Boston if there is an unprecedented series of injuries? 1) Because he actually is a prospect. He's arguably the best athlete in the entire system, based on Callis calling him exactly that just two years ago. As of now, based on his performance, age, and level, Clay Davenport projects him to have a .276 / .356 / .386 MLB line (.262 EqA) at his peak. He projects as an elite utility guy who could conceivably get some starting time before his career is over. And he'll be that guy in a season or less. 2) He's a minor league FA who will almost certainly get an MLB contract from somebody. 3) He has a good chance to pass Herrera as the first guy to call up in case of an injury to a MI. Folks who were dismissive of him because he played three straight years in AA, even though he made marked improvements each year. They continued to be dismissive of him when he was named an EL All-Star, and then when he tripled and homered in that game while his teammates had another 5 TB among them. And when he was promoted to AAA and put up a better OPS than in AA. It would be appropriate to ignore all this if he weren't three years removed from being the #10 prospect in the system and two years from being ranked #25 even after two terrible seasons in a row. He wouldn't be the first excellent prospect who came back after being written off and had a career. (And no, I'm merely suggesting a career relative to much lower expectations, not as good absolutely.)
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 14, 2014 10:57:40 GMT -5
Shaw: Though Shaw has hit well this year you have to ask yourself if he's ever going to play regularly for Boston. You can always find AAA 1b, so if.he has no.chance at being the 1b in 2016 you should not waste a spot. Eh what? I disagree with this standard. It's good enough for me that he should be the first guy called up if the actual 1B gets injured, and he additionally has trade value.
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Post by mabrowndog on Aug 14, 2014 11:29:59 GMT -5
Why waste a roster spot on Gibson who is a non-prospect, will not be drafted by another team and will only play a major league for Boston if there is an unprecedented series of injuries? While I'm not going to get as hyperbolic with my praise of Gibson as EV just did, his value lies in his versatility. He's not a guy who plays only 3B (Middlebrooks) or the OF (Brentz). He's proven he can play above-average defense at six different positions, and there is zero doubt he could handle a 7th (first base) with ease. That provides far more opportunities for Gibson to be "the guy" during multiple call-ups over the course of the season, especially during short-term (15-day) DL stints. And instead of worrying about having multiple players with options taking up 40-man slots, Gibson covers a bunch of them. The part of your post that's most humorous is the "unprecedented series of injuries" line, considering what we've seen happen to this club in recent years. I mean, is your memory really that lousy? From Fangraphs: And this only shows time lost to the DL, not all the myriad 3-, 5- or 10-day periods where a player was unavailable but no roster move was made. 2013 was far kinder to the Red Sox than the prior 3 seasons, while 2014 has seen significant time lost by Victorino & Middlebrooks along with shorter stints by Napoli and Drew (I'm not counting Ross since that wouldn't impact Gibson's role). But 2010 was an unmitigated disaster for the franchise from a health stance. Plus we all know the sun's gravitational pull will suck the earth into its fiery bowels if Brock Holt ever gets hurt unless Gibson's available to wear his Superman uniform.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 14, 2014 11:37:08 GMT -5
A re-take:
Again, all you have to do to figure out the number of available slots is to decide whether guys currently on option will be in MLB, on option again, or DFA'd (or traded)
Probable MLB, but possibly on option
Anthony Ranaudo Allen Webster Brandon Workman Steven Wright Heath Hembree Tommy Layne Mookie Betts
My guess is that one of the pitchers ends up optioned.
Definite Returning Optioned players Edwin Escobar Garrin Cecchini Bryce Brentz Alex Hassan
Possible DFA / Traded Alex Wilson Dan Butler Jonathan Herrera
Definite Additions Matt Barnes Eduardo Rodriguez Blake Swihart Sean Coyle Travis Shaw
That's 13 guys, leaving 2 open slots, which could easily go to 3 if they DFA Butler.
Conceivable Additions (mlfa) Miguel Celestino
John Ely He's out of options, hence useless on a winter roster
Pete Ruiz Roughed up recently in AA Ryan Verdugo Brayan Villareal
Carson Blair Derrik Gibson
Conceivable Additions (Rule 5 eligible)
Keith Couch Luis Diaz Chris Hernandez Aaron Kurcz Noe Ramirez Robby Scott
Michael Almanzar Henry Ramos
You already know I'm in favor of selecting Gibson, and I have to add Blair to that list given the home / road splits I discovered the other day.
I think that very few of the pitchers project to be effective next year in MLB. The big exception is Verdugo, who's been dominating as a reliever and almost unhittable by lefties. Given our pitching depth, the only other guys who you need to think about are Ramirez, Kurcz (not necessarily in that order), and Hernandez, if his last good outing is in fact the harbinger of a strong finish and a return to the form he flashed from late May to the ASB. But I wouldn't DFA Wilson to make room for any of those three.
Almanzar was already drafted and has improved, and to me, remains a possibility for protection, but I wouldn't jettison Herrera to keep him. Ramos, on the other hand, isn't yet good enough to be useful next year in MLB, nor does he project to be good enough to be drafted and stashed while of limited use, and then sent down for the AAA year he needs. I could see him getting drafted, but not sticking -- he's this year's Almanzar.
So, if you DFA Butler, you can select Blair, Gibson, and Verdugo.
If I were GM, I'd be trying to make a multi-player deal for Jason Heyward, and that will free up room to protect one or more of Almanzar, Kurcz, Ramirez, and Hernandez, perhaps in that order. (Kurcz ahead of Ramirez because he has a better chance to be an elite reliever. Ramirez has the better chance to be OK, but OK relievers are common.)
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 14, 2014 11:38:45 GMT -5
2) He's a minor league FA who will almost certainly get an MLB contract from somebody. Unless you have insider info here, I really disagree with this. MLFAs who get major league contracts are exceedingly rare.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 14, 2014 11:51:51 GMT -5
Eric -
You left out Drake Britton.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 14, 2014 11:58:38 GMT -5
2) He's a minor league FA who will almost certainly get an MLB contract from somebody. Unless you have insider info here, I really disagree with this. MLFAs who get major league contracts are exceedingly rare. Really? I think it's fairly common, a solid handful of guys each year. We're not talking about long-time mlfa's who have been kicking around with all of their options used up. Rather, guys whose graduation to 40-man worthiness happens to take six years instead of the usual 4 or 5. Back when the organization was thin, Theo signed one in back-to-back seasons: Paul Stewart for 2003 and Tim Hamulack for 2004. They were ranked #22 and #20 in our system by BA, respectively. (This is the nostalgic equivalent of "When I was a kid, I got picked up and driven to school in a stretch limo.") On the other side of the ledger, Michael Olmsted got an MLB deal two years ago.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 14, 2014 12:09:26 GMT -5
Eric - You left out Drake Britton. Nope! Nor Lavarnway. Nor Corey Brown, for that matter. They have no options left, therefore we don't have to think about them at all. (OK, I did intend to mention that explicitly.) You're just trying to find next year's 15 optioned players. Whether they save a space for any of these guys on the expected 25 is another question (one that's incredibly easy to answer, actually), but you only have to project the 25 a little bit, to get a sense of how many of the cusp pitchers will be in MLB.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 14, 2014 12:18:28 GMT -5
Unless you have insider info here, I really disagree with this. MLFAs who get major league contracts are exceedingly rare. Really? I think it's fairly common, a solid handful of guys each year. We're not talking about long-time mlfa's who have been kicking around with all of their options used up. Rather, guys whose graduation to 40-man worthiness happens to take six years instead of the usual 4 or 5. Back when the organization was thin, Theo signed one in back-to-back seasons: Paul Stewart for 2003 and Tim Hamulack for 2004. They were ranked #22 and #20 in our system by BA, respectively. (This is the nostalgic equivalent of "When I was a kid, I got picked up and driven to school in a stretch limo.") On the other side of the ledger, Michael Olmsted got an MLB deal two years ago. I remember the Olmsted signing, and all the hand-wringing over it. Gibson is a better player than Olmsted for sure. I can't find a single MLFA who got a major league contract last offseason. Ever since the Rule 5 eligibility was changed (I think that was in '06?), I feel that it has created less of a roster crunch, leading to more potential borderline MLFAs getting added to the 40-man. I would guess that if the Red Sox have a plan for Gibson, they'll purchase his contract in September. If they don't do so I'd be shocked if they add him in the offseason. I had forgetten about Paul Stewart entirely. Nice reference.
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Post by elguapo on Aug 14, 2014 12:52:30 GMT -5
I remember the Olmsted signing, and all the hand-wringing over it. Gibson is a better player than Olmsted for sure. Totally dissimilar situations. Olmsted was (is) a giant. As my nephew might say, he had "way more 'cool factor'".
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Post by tonyc on Aug 14, 2014 17:16:01 GMT -5
Eric,
I agree with your analysis on Henry Ramos, but boy I'll be sweating it if he gets drafted. Despite the lack of walks at this point, really like his tools and ceiling, and power could come down the line.
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Post by danr on Aug 14, 2014 17:37:46 GMT -5
As I recall , Ramos was starting to impress a lot of people about the time he got hurt. I think he was mentioned in BP article recently as a sleeper type of player who might go overlooked.
I very much agree on keeping Gibson. Things have come together for him. He could be next year's Holt. He's still young and could have a good career.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 14, 2014 22:56:33 GMT -5
Eric, I agree with your analysis on Henry Ramos, but boy I'll be sweating it if he gets drafted. Despite the lack of walks at this point, really like his tools and ceiling, and power could come down the line. And what we're sweating about is the small but real possibility that he is drafted, and then figures something out or otherwise markedly improves himself over the winter. That does happen, where kids come to ST and have taken a noticeable and real step forwards. Teams draft guys like Ramos all the time, hoping that step forward does happen, and that the player is suddenly at least marginally useful as a bench guy.
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