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Post by azblue on Aug 14, 2014 23:08:45 GMT -5
Guys like Gibson and Hassan are so easily replaceable.
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Post by moonstone2 on Aug 15, 2014 6:57:36 GMT -5
Shaw: Though Shaw has hit well this year you have to ask yourself if he's ever going to play regularly for Boston. You can always find AAA 1b, so if.he has no.chance at being the 1b in 2016 you should not waste a spot. Eh what? I disagree with this standard. It's good enough for me that he should be the first guy called up if the actual 1B gets injured, and he additionally has trade value. Shaw is a 24 year old 1b only guy who doesn't hit for a lot of power. If he has any trade value at all it's minimal. We already have two backip 1b on the major league roster in Nava and Craig. How many backup 1b do you really need? Why waste a roster spot on a guy whom at best would play off and on for a couple of weeks? Find a minor league free agent to do that if you have to. If he's never going to be a regular with the red sox don't protect him. He would likely pass through anyways.
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 15, 2014 7:14:24 GMT -5
Shaw is a 24 year old 1b only guy who doesn't hit for a lot of power. He has the second highest SLG of all Pawtucket players this season (min. 100 PA). Anyway you can hate Travis Shaw, that's fine. My point is that "must be the starting 1B for the Red Sox in 2016" is way too high a bar for protection. Whether Shaw would clear a lower bar or not is not what I was talking about.
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Post by jmei on Aug 15, 2014 8:42:56 GMT -5
Shaw is certainly a lock. I can't imagine the rationale for leaving Shaw unprotected in order to add Gibson or Blair or Almanzar or any of the fringy relievers. I also don't see the logic behind DFAing Butler to protect Blair. I'm not sure Blair has any higher of a ceiling than Butler, while Butler is an above-average defensive guy who is MLB-ready (Blair is at least another year away) and projects to be the first catcher called up next year in case of injury. I wouldn't be too heartbroken if any of the fringy guys were left unprotected, but this is the rough order in which I would currently protect them: Noe Ramirez (binky pick) Miguel Celestino (terrific stuff and reportedly much-improved control) Derrik Gibson (versatile backup guys like this are useful) Ryan Verdugo (they traded for him out of the blue, so they must like him, and he's been good in Pawtucket) Aaron Kurcz Michael Almanzar Luis Diaz (don't think he'll stick if selected) Henry Ramos (don't think he'll stick if selected) [etc. etc.]
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 15, 2014 8:53:52 GMT -5
Eh what? I disagree with this standard. It's good enough for me that he should be the first guy called up if the actual 1B gets injured, and he additionally has trade value. Shaw is a 24 year old 1b only guy who doesn't hit for a lot of power. If he has any trade value at all it's minimal. ... He would likely pass through [the Rule 5 draft] anyways. This assessment of Shaw is far from reality. Remember that he retooled his mechanics completely going into last year's AFL, where the small amount of Hit/fx data showed him as either the most impressive power hitter in the sample, or second to Kris Bryant. He goes back to AA and proceeds to go 4 for his first 35 with no XBH. So much for the new mechanics, right? Except he hits .352 / .436 / .655 after that to earn a promotion. Whereupon he hits .248 / .283 / .352 in his first 27 games (113 PA). So why did we think this guy was interesting at all? Maybe because he's hit .291 / .350 / .533 since, in 42 games (183 PA). He wouldn't be the first guy who was slow to adapt to a new level. But the possibility that he is better than his current AAA overall numbers is not the main reason why you're grossly underrating him. At Portland he hit .333 / .458 / .635 vs. RHP, and .272 / .337 / .444 vs. LHP. At Pawtucket he's hit .300 / .350 / .525 vs. RHP, and .200 / .250 / .286 vs. LHP. So, he projects to be a second-division starting MLB platoon 1B, next year. And obviously could grow into more than that. Please share with us your psychic data that guarantees that the total DL time for Ortiz and Napoli next year is just a single 15-day spell! Furthermore, he may well hit RHP better than Nava, if not already, by next year. An injury to one of those two, and you may well want him starting. Right, a guy like Corey Brown, maybe ... who would furthermore be out of options, which meant that if he actually turned out to be good the first time you called him up, you might well lose him on waivers when you needed to send him back down. In general, it's a good idea to have guys with option backing up every position on the MLB roster. Especially good guys, guys who are boderline MLB starters. Rich people don't get and stay rich because they had the attitude, hey I've got a million bucks, why should I bother to pick up this extra 50K? Au contraire.
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Post by raftsox on Aug 15, 2014 9:15:48 GMT -5
What makes Gibson any different than Hassan? Having both on the 40 man doesn't make sense unless the team trades a significant number of guys on it/on the cusp of it, and there's enough roster space where they say "ehh what the heck, let's have both guys for now".
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Post by jmei on Aug 15, 2014 9:49:51 GMT -5
What makes Gibson any different than Hassan? Having both on the 40 man doesn't make sense unless the team trades a significant number of guys on it/on the cusp of it, and there's enough roster space where they say "ehh what the heck, let's have both guys for now". He's a totally different player than Hassan. Having a guy like Gibson who can field all the non-P, non-C positions on the field at least adequately is hugely useful, especially if he's also a useful pinch-runner off the bench (which Gibson is). If, say, Pedroia needs to miss time on the DL, you can shift Holt to 2B, call up Gibson, and still have all your positions backed up.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 15, 2014 18:00:43 GMT -5
What makes Gibson any different than Hassan? Having both on the 40 man doesn't make sense unless the team trades a significant number of guys on it/on the cusp of it, and there's enough roster space where they say "ehh what the heck, let's have both guys for now". The guys who are actually redundant in terms for roles next year are Hassan and Brentz. Brentz, who in theory has that rare RH power skill, could be a throw-in / sweetener in a multi-player deal, or the other guy in a 2-for-1 deal to upgrade somewhere.
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Post by raftsox on Aug 15, 2014 20:35:18 GMT -5
What makes Gibson any different than Hassan? Having both on the 40 man doesn't make sense unless the team trades a significant number of guys on it/on the cusp of it, and there's enough roster space where they say "ehh what the heck, let's have both guys for now". He's a totally different player than Hassan. Having a guy like Gibson who can field all the non-P, non-C positions on the field at least adequately is hugely useful, especially if he's also a useful pinch-runner off the bench (which Gibson is). If, say, Pedroia needs to miss time on the DL, you can shift Holt to 2B, call up Gibson, and still have all your positions backed up. Then hassan should probably be removed if Gibson is ready for next year. However, if he's not ready to contribute to the ML roster on opening day then they should risk letting Hassan get exposed. I don't find Gibson to be special enough to keep on the 40 man roster of he can't help the ML roster on day 1.
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Post by mabrowndog on Aug 15, 2014 21:10:00 GMT -5
I don't find Gibson to be special enough to keep on the 40 man roster of he can't help the ML roster on day 1. Brock Holt wasn't on the ML roster on day 1 this year. I guess he wasn't special enough to be on the 40-man either. Gibson has all of his options left. A guy like that is insanely valuable when it comes to preserving all the other talent in need of protection on the 40-man (Escobar, Rodriguez, and others who likely won't be called upon by Boston until late in 2015). He fills reserve positions that would normally require 2 or even 3 players (MI, CM, OF), so you don't have to keep more limited and superfluous guys like Ryan Roberts, Jonathan Herrera or Kelly Johnson around over the course of a season, and you don't have to continuously DFA and add less flexible players to fill varying positions of need.
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Post by moonstone2 on Aug 15, 2014 21:40:21 GMT -5
Shaw is a 24 year old 1b only guy who doesn't hit for a lot of power. He has the second highest SLG of all Pawtucket players this season (min. 100 PA). Anyway you can hate Travis Shaw, that's fine. My point is that "must be the starting 1B for the Red Sox in 2016" is way too high a bar for protection. Whether Shaw would clear a lower bar or not is not what I was talking about. Because I disagree with you it doesn't mean I hate Travis Shaw. The bar to take a 1b in rule five AND keep him the entire season is incredibly high. In the era of 12 man pitching staffs a guy who can only play 1st has to play just about every day. Where exactly is he going to do that? I really don't care what his sluuging percentage in AAA unless you think he's somehow going to become Kevin Youkilis there are other guys that need protecting who have a much better chance of impacting the big. club and might be gone. No way I let Celestino walk for this guy.
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Post by mabrowndog on Aug 15, 2014 22:14:51 GMT -5
He has the second highest SLG of all Pawtucket players this season (min. 100 PA). Anyway you can hate Travis Shaw, that's fine. My point is that "must be the starting 1B for the Red Sox in 2016" is way too high a bar for protection. Whether Shaw would clear a lower bar or not is not what I was talking about. Because I disagree with you it doesn't mean I hate Travis Shaw. The bar to take a 1b in rule five AND keep him the entire season is incredibly high. In the era of 12 man pitching staffs a guy who can only play 1st has to play just about every day. Where exactly is he going to do that? I really don't care what his sluuging percentage in AAA unless you think he's somehow going to become Kevin Youkilis there are other guys that need protecting who have a much better chance of impacting the big. club and might be gone. No way I let Celestino walk for this guy. Great post. Even though Shaw can play a little bit of 3B, that doesn't change the equation appreciably. You've given me some food for thought.
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Post by moonstone2 on Aug 15, 2014 22:50:43 GMT -5
I don't think we are talking about protecting Shaw to keep Carson Blair or Michael Almanzar. I think Chris' bubble list is the guys worth talking about.
Remember it's not just minor league track record that needs to be considered. You also need to consider how likely they are to be picked, how likely they are to stick and the chances that you lose them forever with that said.....
Ramos- He's a guy who could be taken because he has power and can.play the outfield which is hard to find. You could hide him for a year and pray you have George Bell.
Ramirez- He's the guy most likely to one day help the major league club but he'll likely never start or close. For that reason I think teams will pass on him. He's also never pitched in AAA. With his fastball he's never going to be handed a major league job.
Celestino- Big fastball which doesn't grow on trees. Unlike the other guys a team could option him. If you don't protect him he's gone.
Diaz-Again this is a guy with upside as major league starter. Kind of guy who gets taken because you can hide him for a year.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 16, 2014 5:48:23 GMT -5
The bar to take a 1b in rule five AND keep him the entire season is incredibly high. In the era of 12 man pitching staffs a guy who can only play 1st has to play just about every day. Where exactly is he going to do that? Excuse me, but the Brewers have spent the whole year platooning Lyle Overbay and Mark Reynolds at 1B and have gotten a total .216 / .295 / .362 from 1B. The White Sox have spent the whole season platooning Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko at DH. There is currently a gross shortage of MLB power hitters. The notion that teams rotate regulars at DH because it's a superior strategy is pretty obviously false (if that were true, Ortiz would have never had any value); they do so because they've run out of guys who can hit. The shortage of power hitters also manifests itself in LF hitting less well than RF even though it's easier defensively, and fewer innings in LF being taken by identifiable regulars than any position including catcher. So the notion that there would be no interest in a power hitter who is killing AAA RH pitching goes past dubious in the direction of wack. Overbay, Reynolds, and Dunn are all FA's and Konerko is retiring, so the Brewers and White Sox would have interest in Shaw. Others: Orioles: Losing their DH Cruz to free agency and already have a platoon partner in Steve Pearce; also the possibility that Chris Davis continues to suck. Royals: They'll need a DH with Josh Willingham a FA and Billy Butler's $12.5M option very likely to be declined. Mariners: Their 1B have hit .237 / .296 / .377 and their DHs .188 / .267 / .290. Logan Morrison isn't faring much better than Justin Smoak did, and Kendrys Morales will be a FA. Marlins: Shaw could well be an upgrade to Garrett Jones. A's: Their DHs have hit .226 / .298 / .367. 1B Brandon Moss may well be traded or may need to play LF if Steven Vogt proves to be a mirage. (They do have Kyle Blanks hanging around.) Astros: Shaw is very likely a DH upgrade vs. RHP over Chris Carter, who of course could be the platoon partner if there's roster space for him. Padres: May be time to move on from Yonder Alonso (career .270 / .322 / .392 on the road, so it's not Petco), and they have a platoon partner in OF/1B Tommy Medica. Twins: They've jumped 1B Kennys Vargas from AA and he's holding his own at DH, but his numbers say he needs another year in the minors.
Indians: They've started playing Nick Swisher in RF a bit, where David Murphy has been playing like a 4th OFer, so they could maybe use DH as well.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 16, 2014 6:23:06 GMT -5
Are there examples of a team taking a *platoon* 1b or DH in the rule 5, and the guy sticking?
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Post by moonstone2 on Aug 16, 2014 9:07:27 GMT -5
Are there examples of a team taking a *platoon* 1b or DH in the rule 5, and the guy sticking? Under the new rules I don't think such a player has ever been taken. Changes in the draft, and the game such as 12 man staffs, revenue sharing, and the second wild card effect this. As for Eric's analysis, any analysis that seriously postulates that the Royals are going to replace Country Breakfast with a 25 year old platoon rule five guy.with a .325 OBP in half a AAA season can't be taken serously. Eric teams that see themselves as contenders, and these days that's most teams, want players with major league experience and track records. You just can't explain to you fans that you are replacing Nelson Cruz with Travis Shaw.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 16, 2014 9:51:15 GMT -5
Of course, the reason no player like Shaw has been taken could be because such players are always protected
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 16, 2014 10:19:42 GMT -5
Just about anyone would be an improvement over Jones at 1b for the marlins, then he's owed 5m in 2015 and they are not known for taking on cash in deals either to move players.
Jones is putting up better numbers than is Saltalamachichia, owed 14m through 2016. He's hit the skids since end of April. Putting up AJP numbers, yet getting paid 7mAAV for 2 more seasons.
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Post by mabrowndog on Aug 16, 2014 10:31:15 GMT -5
Ramirez- He's the guy most likely to one day help the major league club but he'll likely never start or close. For that reason I think teams will pass on him. He's also never pitched in AAA. With his fastball he's never going to be handed a major league job. While I agree with your assessment of Ramirez, I don't think his lack of AAA experience would factor into a team's R5 selection. The Sox lost Ryan Pressly to the Twins despite him never advancing past Portland, while Houston took Josh Fields after pitching just 13.2 innings for the PawSox.
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Post by moonstone2 on Aug 17, 2014 14:28:46 GMT -5
Ramirez- He's the guy most likely to one day help the major league club but he'll likely never start or close. For that reason I think teams will pass on him. He's also never pitched in AAA. With his fastball he's never going to be handed a major league job. While I agree with your assessment of Ramirez, I don't think his lack of AAA experience would factor into a team's R5 selection. The Sox lost Ryan Pressly to the Twins despite him never advancing past Portland, while Houston took Josh Fields after pitching just 13.2 innings for the PawSox. It depends on the pitcher. Josh Fields threw up to 97. The Twins thought Ryan Pressley could start one day. The same cannot be said of Ramirez. When you throw in the mid 80s you have to prove yourself at every level. So yes for him, his lack of AAA experience makes him less likely to be drafted snd lower on the protect list.
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Post by okin15 on Aug 17, 2014 21:14:08 GMT -5
Agree with Moonstone here. Why be so restricted on a guy with such a low ceiling?
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 17, 2014 22:01:02 GMT -5
I think Keith Couch could get claimed. I don't think you can protect him if you're the Red Sox, but with that sinker and consistent results, he could easily be carried as the last pitcher on a lot of teams. Hopefully they can trade him and Chris Hernandez to get a little return.
Guys like KDLC, Shaw, Coyle, even Almanzar again... protect if you have room maybe, but I don't think any would be a huge loss. Even Shaw IMO has little to no chance to develop into a productive MLBer in Boston.
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Post by elguapo on Aug 17, 2014 22:01:56 GMT -5
Shaw is (now) an obvious player to protect, for me. Kid has 56 HR over the last three seasons and has shown potential to control the strike zone (significant stretches with BB>K). Every time you (I) think he's hit a ceiling he takes another step forward, and just had a killer July for Pawtucket. Shaw is a solid depth option (with options) at 1B-DH next season, and could complement Craig, for instance, in a platoon role in the future. Right now we have lots of Major League redundancy at OB-1B but who knows after the offseason?
As an AL competitor, I would claim him if left unprotected and work him into my 1B-DH mix next season. As has been pointed out, many teams get weak DH production and of course most teams are looking to stretch a dollar.
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 17, 2014 22:07:18 GMT -5
This is either insane or a typo, I hope. Nava hits . 292/.387/.428 vs. RHP. It's what makes him a great 75% platoon guy, and just needs a 25% guy who can hit LHP. Shaw is terrible against LHP, making him not that. But I really don't see how you expect Shaw to for sure be hitting a .300/.400/.500 line against RHP, possibly ever.
Edit: that's not even a knock on Shaw, whom I like fine and if the Red Sox protect him, wouldn't complain. But that's a stretch to say you expect Shaw to have a line better than that for 2014, based on a few games at AAA.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Aug 17, 2014 22:21:46 GMT -5
gotta wonder why there aren't more trades Pre-5. If Celestino deserves a roster spot, the Cubs would take him in a trade, along with a "protection-worthy" player like Ramirez.
9 players drafted in '13, AZ lost 2. If a player is not in the top 20 available players, they probably survive ... and chance is slim Sox would lose 2.
Astros aren't going to take Ramirez and Ramos, with the Cubs taking back Kurcz. That would be a Boston massacre.
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