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Post by geezergeek on Jun 22, 2014 11:11:41 GMT -5
Is it time to consider Johnson the second best pitching prospect in the system? He seems to have mastered 3 pitches and can throw them all for strikes. His control is better than Webster. He's more mature as a pitcher than Barnes. He has better command of three pitches than Renardo. Though he has graduated from the prospect list, I think Workman is a closer comparison to Johnson than the other three. I think the next rankings should place him just behind Betts and Owens at number 3 (#2 pitcher). His only competition for the 3 slot would be Swihart and not another pitcher.
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Post by jmei on Jun 22, 2014 11:29:22 GMT -5
Specific discussion of rankings goes in the Meta forum. Generalized discussion of how Johnson compares to the other pitching prospects in the system is fine, though.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 22, 2014 11:53:53 GMT -5
Is it time to consider Johnson the second best pitching prospect in the system? He seems to have mastered 3 pitches and can throw them all for strikes. His control is better than Webster. He's more mature as a pitcher than Barnes. He has better command of three pitches than Renardo. Though he has graduated from the prospect list, I think Workman is a closer comparison to Johnson than the other three. I think the next rankings should place him just behind Betts and Owens at number 3 (#2 pitcher). His only competition for the 3 slot would be Swihart and not another pitcher. He may have passed Barnes, who has been underwhelming. I doubt he's passed Webster, who has much better stuff and has been very good since his first few starts, and he certainly hasn't passed Ranaudo, who has improved dramatically and has had three Johnson-esque starts in a row himself. Swihart is regarded as either the best catching prospect in the minors, or the second best. Johnson is probably knocking at the door of the 50th best pitching prospect.
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Post by larrycook on Jun 22, 2014 12:01:55 GMT -5
Is it time to consider Johnson the second best pitching prospect in the system? He seems to have mastered 3 pitches and can throw them all for strikes. Though he has graduated from the prospect list, I think Workman is a closer comparison to Johnson. I think the next rankings should place him just behind Betts and Owens at number 3 (#2 pitcher). His only competition for the 3 slot would be Swihart and not another pitcher. Interesting because both Workman and Johnson, while not having overwhelming stuff, come after hitters and throw strikes. They are not afraid to let the defense make plays behind them. Is this something they learned in college? I do not know if Johnson has anything else to work on in Portland, but I do not there is currently no room for another starter at Pawtucket. Seems the planes are backing up on the runway. For Mr. Cherrington it is probably time to figure this out before someone stagnates. So let me see, we have an excess of starting pitching. 28 or so other teams needs starting pitching. We have a huge need for a quality outfielder. Clearly there must be a team out there with a quality outfielder they would be willing to part with in return for pitching? This should not be all that hard for Cherrington to figure out. PS: I would start by calling Atlanta.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 22, 2014 14:09:35 GMT -5
He has raised his stock considerably from where it dropped last season. That he hasn't really passed those other guys, in my mind, shows how great a season the pitchers in the upper minors have had.
Not quite ready to jump him over Barnes yet myself, but that's an opinion I can respect. But having seen him in one of his very good starts, I admittedly wasn't blown away. He's the guy they drafted, but now he's healthy. High floor, low ceiling.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 22, 2014 15:03:18 GMT -5
Passing Barnes works for me but not the others, we've had a great year. Even with that, there's a degree of Barnes dropping past Johnson and it's debatable because it's close. The opposite hand Workman comp is the closest to me. Innings horse, decent enough stuff, well above average command, knows how to manage a batter/hitter chess match.
Just the fact that we are having this conversation says all that needs to be said. Johnson is in the conversation with the other guys and we'll see how it plays out.
ADD: Let's also not loose sight of the fact that he needs to stretch out the innings. It's not his fault that he got a line drive off the face last year but it's his situation, he needs to get in his 140ish innings. I would expect somewhat of a performance dip as his innings approach 100 or so.
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Post by godot on Jun 22, 2014 15:31:57 GMT -5
Passing Barnes works for me but not the others, we've had a great year. Even with that, there's a degree of Barnes dropping past Johnson and it's debatable because it's close. The opposite hand Workman comp is the closest to me. Innings horse, decent enough stuff, well above average command, knows how to manage a batter/hitter chess match. Just the fact that we are having this conversation says all that needs to be said. Johnson is in the conversation with the other guys and we'll see how it plays out. ADD: Let's also not loose sight of the fact that he needs to stretch out the innings. It's not his fault that he got a line drive off the face last year but it's his situation, he needs to get in his 140ish innings. I would expect somewhat of a performance dip as his innings approach 100 or so. If Johnson, apparently like Workman, has well above average command and knows how to work a batter, then he is almost there. The pitchers with real good stuff usually do not advance well until they master these skills. Some are underestimating Workman because he does not have overwhelming stuff, but all he has done so far is have good results.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 22, 2014 15:42:18 GMT -5
Passing Barnes works for me but not the others, we've had a great year. Even with that, there's a degree of Barnes dropping past Johnson and it's debatable because it's close. The opposite hand Workman comp is the closest to me. Innings horse, decent enough stuff, well above average command, knows how to manage a batter/hitter chess match. Just the fact that we are having this conversation says all that needs to be said. Johnson is in the conversation with the other guys and we'll see how it plays out. ADD: Let's also not loose sight of the fact that he needs to stretch out the innings. It's not his fault that he got a line drive off the face last year but it's his situation, he needs to get in his 140ish innings. I would expect somewhat of a performance dip as his innings approach 100 or so. If Johnson, apparently like Workman, has well above average command and knows how to work a batter, then he is almost there. The pitchers with real good stuff usually do not advance well until they master these skills. Some are underestimating Workman because he does not have overwhelming stuff, but all he has done so far is have good results. We share that general thought. To me, there's a point that developing pitchers reach when they are close to ready and now it's just a matter of details. That point can be seen with consistency, when there are no longer big fluctuations in the performance levels from start to start. I think Johnson and Ranaudo have achieved that for a while now. Webster and Owens also but it's been more recent. Barnes is still pretty inconsistent.
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Post by Steve Henley on Jun 24, 2014 13:08:18 GMT -5
So Bob Kipper is Oma Desala?
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Post by raftsox on Jun 24, 2014 13:32:44 GMT -5
He has raised his stock considerably from where it dropped last season. That he hasn't really passed those other guys, in my mind, shows how great a season the pitchers in the upper minors have had. Not quite ready to jump him over Barnes yet myself, but that's an opinion I can respect. But having seen him in one of his very good starts, I admittedly wasn't blown away. He's the guy they drafted, but now he's healthy. High floor, low ceiling. That recent podcast you did with Speier had a nice interview with Johnson before your interview. Alex and Brian both admit that he doesn't have a single + pitch, though his command may move his fastball into that realm. He grades out as a 55-60 total package. Barnes, to me, still has a much better ceiling with the ability to command a 70 fastball. I'm a Brian Johnson fan and think he'll be better than Doubront, but that doesn't mean that he's moved ahead of any other pitcher right now.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 24, 2014 13:49:24 GMT -5
^This.
And not just because you plugged my Speier interview. ;-)
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Post by mredsox89 on Jun 24, 2014 14:27:26 GMT -5
I've still got Barnes over Johnson. But that's because the ceiling on Barnes is something that isn't all that prevalent with his fastball.
I certainly think Johnson could fill in as a back of the end rotation guy in short time, potentially over a guy like Doubront by the end of this season.
Barnes may well never reach is ceiling, but it's high enough where he still has plenty of value to both Boston and potentially other teams.
Though I'd really like to see some better results for him with Pawtucket, but he's still on the younger side of things
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Post by moonstone2 on Jun 25, 2014 0:05:36 GMT -5
I think this speaks to a larger point. The Red Sox should be looking to trade Lester AND Lackey. Lackey especially could get them a young corner outfield prospect.
Next year the Sox could go with Workman, Ranaudo, DeLaRosa, Doubront and Buccholz in the rotation and still have Barnes, Webster, Wright, Johnson and Owen's for depth and/or the pen.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 25, 2014 2:26:56 GMT -5
I'm curious about two things. What are Workman's plus pitches that are driving his major league success and how are Barnes secondaries viewed as coming along ?
Also the thread title is funny, I keep checking with the Vatican website and no not yet.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 25, 2014 6:24:14 GMT -5
Johnson has had the "back of the rotation starter" and the "late inning reliever" tag slapped on him; as well as being labeled a high floor low ceiling guy.
I can understand why some people think he could be more because of how well he is performing but the way I look at it, it's not that his ceiling might be higher but maybe more of he has a really really really good chance of reaching that ceiling.
TO me I still don't think his ceiling has changed all that much, but I think now he may have a legit shot at being a very good mlb starter who can stick in someones rotation....even here in Boston. Perhaps the ceiling is just as low but the floor is even higher now.
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Post by raftsox on Jun 25, 2014 10:36:24 GMT -5
What are Workman's plus pitches that are driving his major league success hashtag notascout I don't necessarily think that Workman has a + pitch. His most valuable pitch is a cutter that he throws about 18% of the time. On a per 100 pitch basis, that pitch is killing it which doesn't jive with scouting reports, so I think he's overperforming it. His success is largely tied to: 1. Not giving up HRs. 5.9 HR/FB% 2. Very low BABIP. 0.223
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 17, 2014 5:10:59 GMT -5
Pitching is hard to figure because great "stuff" (movement and/or velocity) doesn't always translate into success. We've seen a ton of guys with top notch stuff fail and we've seen guys without it succeed.
Command/control, a "feel" for pitching, and the ability to execute pitches to different zones is probably more important than pure "stuff".
We will see what Johnson becomes, but he's a real nice prospect and perhaps not ACE material, but hopefully he's a reliable, consistent and durable starter.
Anyone know his innings cap? Someone threw out 140, but he only threw 85 innings last year and I'm not sure he's ever passed 100. He's at 97.1 now. I can't imagine him going past 140... I'm guessing he's got 7 -10 starts left.
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Jul 20, 2014 14:52:06 GMT -5
Another very solid start by Johnson had me thinking of this interesting article on soft-tossing lefties from Grantland by Rany Jazayerli. The piece focuses on Mark Buehrle in particular and tries to characterize his uncanny success. ------------------------- It cites an excerpt from Bill James' Baseball Abstract (1984), where he described “The Tommy John family of pitchers” as having “5 things in common.” James wrote: 1. They are all left-handed. 2. They are control-type pitchers. 3. They cut off the running game very well. 4. They receive excellent double-play support. 5. They allow moderate to low totals of home runs, lower-than-normal totals for a control pitcher. This combination of abilities or tendencies enables this family of pitchers to be effective and to win at unusually high levels of hits per game, which then is another defining characteristic of the group. ------------------------- I wonder if Johnson might be quite the steal after all. I can see him being a very solid number 3, since he appears to fit into this mold of pitcher.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 20, 2014 15:58:18 GMT -5
Plus Johnson can actually get it up to 94 when he really reaches back, so it isn't like he is up there tossing exceptionally soft stuff.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 20, 2014 22:27:15 GMT -5
Plus Johnson can actually get it up to 94 when he really reaches back, so it isn't like he is up there tossing exceptionally soft stuff. Agreed, I saw Johnson in Salem and he was not tossing grapefruits. It's all about location and movement and working the hitters. At the end of the day he dd it very well.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 20, 2014 23:12:05 GMT -5
Pitching is hard to figure because great "stuff" (movement and/or velocity) doesn't always translate into success. We've seen a ton of guys with top notch stuff fail and we've seen guys without it succeed. Command/control, a "feel" for pitching, and the ability to execute pitches to different zones is probably more important than pure "stuff". We will see what Johnson becomes, but he's a real nice prospect and perhaps not ACE material, but hopefully he's a reliable, consistent and durable starter. Anyone know his innings cap? Someone threw out 140, but he only threw 85 innings last year and I'm not sure he's ever passed 100. He's at 97.1 now. I can't imagine him going past 140... I'm guessing he's got 7 -10 starts left. I'm guessing (but a guess) that the Sox do periodic strength tests for young arms. Again a guess but I'm expecting 140-150 IP since he doesn't throw his FB at full velocity all that often. He's a big guy with fluid mechanics, looks like a future big innings eater. ADD: One of the things we can't know either way because of the importance of development over results is if Johnson is pitching 90-92 because he has better command and movement at that speed or if Johnson is pitching that speed to build arm strength in light of the fact that he only pitched 85 innings last year. Similar situation to Ranaudo in 2013. There's also no way to know how much bullpen work Johnson did after he was hit in the face and before he was activated.
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Post by aussiesox on Aug 4, 2014 15:43:40 GMT -5
I wasn't sure which player this info was more relevant to, but I'm going to post it here. I think Blake Swihart's promotion will also test Brian Johnson, he's been a very different pitcher with/without Swihart catching him at AA this year... 10 starts with Swihart he's 7-0 with a 1.64 ERA, 6.0 H/9 and 9.0 SO/9 in 60.1 IP 6 starts without Swihart he's 2-2 with a 2.84ERA, 8.0 H/9 and 5.1 SO/9 in 31.2 IP Just something to keep an eye on moving forward, maybe he could move on up with him?
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Post by redsox4242 on Aug 4, 2014 15:48:57 GMT -5
I wasn't sure which player this info was more relevant to, but I'm going to post it here. I think Blake Swihart's promotion will also test Brian Johnson, he's been a very different pitcher with/without Swihart catching him at AA this year... 10 starts with Swihart he's 7-0 with a 1.64 ERA, 6.0 H/9 and 9.0 SO/9 in 60.1 IP 6 starts without Swihart he's 2-2 with a 2.84ERA, 8.0 H/9 and 5.1 SO/9 in 31.2 IP Just something to keep an eye on moving forward, maybe he could move on up with him? Good Post. I agree, I think Johnson has done enough to be promoted to AAA. As we have seen with certain pitchers, (Lester) are comfortable with personal catchers because they know what pitches they want to throw on certain counts and during game situations depending on the flow of the game. Johnson has been a deadly pitcher when Swihart was catching him, per your analysis. nice research!
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 4, 2014 15:59:06 GMT -5
That's a fluky-cool stat and thanks for digging it up. At a quick glance, however, it looks like noise. He's given up 10 runs in non-Swihart Double-A starts, and seven were in a disastrous 7/7 start against Binghamton. In the other five starts without Swihart, his ERA is 0.92.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 4, 2014 16:15:56 GMT -5
Only seen him live a couple times so, I'll rely on the scouts on Johnson. 4/5 starter ceiling, probable bullpen guy is what they say. Not having a single plus pitch makes it very hard for him to be more than a backend starter.
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