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Post by okin15 on Aug 4, 2014 16:23:25 GMT -5
That's a fluky-cool stat and thanks for digging it up. At a quick glance, however, it looks like noise. He's given up 10 runs in non-Swihart Double-A starts, and seven were in a disastrous 7/7 start against Binghamton. In the other five starts without Swihart, his ERA is 0.92. Aussisox is a bum statistician; convert him to scout!
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Post by aussiesox on Aug 4, 2014 19:23:40 GMT -5
That's a fluky-cool stat and thanks for digging it up. At a quick glance, however, it looks like noise. He's given up 10 runs in non-Swihart Double-A starts, and seven were in a disastrous 7/7 start against Binghamton. In the other five starts without Swihart, his ERA is 0.92. Yeah, it is only a SSS, but I was more concerned with the + 2 hits per 9 and the - 4 strikeouts per 9, even if it's just over 30 innings, that seems to be a substantial enough difference to raise an eyebrow for me.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 4, 2014 20:38:41 GMT -5
Johnson needs to be at Pawtucket.
He has cooked the competition at double a.
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Post by Jonathan Singer on Aug 4, 2014 20:45:00 GMT -5
Johnson needs to be at Pawtucket. He has cooked the competition at double a. No space in Pawtucket.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 4, 2014 20:56:32 GMT -5
Johnson needs to be at Pawtucket. He has cooked the competition at double a. No space in Pawtucket. Can we please put Buchholz on the dl so we can open a spot for Johnson at Pawtucket.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 4, 2014 21:10:50 GMT -5
You can't just put healthy players on the DL.
My guess is that in about three weeks the Red Sox will shut down De La Rosa for the season because of his innings count, promote Ranaudo to take his spot, and give Johnson his final start or two of the year with the PawSox to gear him up for next year. The last couple years there seem to have been quite a few very late promotions and Johnson seems like a candidate this season.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 4, 2014 23:14:44 GMT -5
You can't just put healthy players on the DL. My guess is that in about three weeks the Red Sox will shut down De La Rosa for the season because of his innings count, promote Ranaudo to take his spot, and give Johnson his final start or two of the year with the PawSox to gear him up for next year. The last couple years there seem to have been quite a few very late promotions and Johnson seems like a candidate this season. Do you really think Buchholz is healthy? Did you see him pitch the last two games he started?
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 5, 2014 10:40:14 GMT -5
You can't just put healthy players on the DL. My guess is that in about three weeks the Red Sox will shut down De La Rosa for the season because of his innings count, promote Ranaudo to take his spot, and give Johnson his final start or two of the year with the PawSox to gear him up for next year. The last couple years there seem to have been quite a few very late promotions and Johnson seems like a candidate this season. Do you really think Buchholz is healthy? Did you see him pitch the last two games he started? There is sometimes a difference between hurt and bad.
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Post by suttree on Aug 5, 2014 10:52:21 GMT -5
I never realized Buccholz has a 4.13 career FIP. That's ugly.
Johnson can finish out the season in AA. He will probably be stuck in Pawtucket for all of 2015.
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 5, 2014 10:53:01 GMT -5
Do you really think Buchholz is healthy? Did you see him pitch the last two games he started? There is sometimes a difference between hurt and bad.Buchholz has been a pretty solid pitcher from 2010-2013, for the time he was healthy at least. I wouldn't write him off as just being bad without looking at his injury history. To me it seems that his bad stints are all either before or after injuries. I'd say Buchholz is a good pitcher when healthy, but he hasn't been a guy who has been healthy often. Anyways, I agree with James post above. Seems like the best option for the team.
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Post by terriblehondo on Aug 6, 2014 9:15:53 GMT -5
He has got to pretty close to an innings limit he is at 125 now and that is 40 more than last year.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 6, 2014 13:13:06 GMT -5
Seems like the Labels have hurt him, just like Workman. Now I've never seem him pitch, I'm a stat guy. His stats this season show a pitcher that can be more then a 4/5 or bullpen arm. Seems to be more like a solid number 3 type. He doesn't give up a lot of walks 25 in 100 innings and has 83 strikeouts in those 100 innings. Now its been said he can get his fastball up to 94/95 and he's left handed. Where does his low ceiling come from? Is it the fact that his off speed pitches are just average? It would seem that a left handed pitcher that can reach 94/95 on his fastball and put up the numbers he has in double A would have a much higher ceiling.
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Post by joshv02 on Aug 6, 2014 13:15:51 GMT -5
He gets up to 94, but he sits at 88-90, without a ton of movement.
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 6, 2014 13:26:23 GMT -5
Reading discussion about players like Owens, Ranaudo, Webster, and Johnson I have completely lost interest in projecting what number starter a prospect could be. From now on I'll look at it like this, if the pitcher is one of the top 5 options in the system, than he should be starting in the MLB, if he isn't then he shouldn't be. I think there is a very good possibility at some point Johnson will meet that criteria, on this team or another, and that is a good thing.
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Post by arzjake on Aug 6, 2014 13:57:59 GMT -5
Reading discussion about players like Owens, Ranaudo, Webster, and Johnson I have completely lost interest in projecting what number starter a prospect could be. From now on I'll look at it like this, if the pitcher is one of the top 5 options in the system, than he should be starting in the MLB, if he isn't then he shouldn't be. I think there is a very good possibility at some point Johnson will meet that criteria, on this team or another, and that is a good thing. Well Said! Your right on, these P's who have been dominate in the Minors deserve a shot at the MLB level no matter what.. See what you have then.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 6, 2014 23:20:35 GMT -5
He gets up to 94, but he sits at 88-90, without a ton of movement. Very harsh! Lack of movement is a kiss of death.
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Post by jchang on Aug 7, 2014 10:40:06 GMT -5
He gets up to 94, but he sits at 88-90, without a ton of movement. funny that with a 88-90 FB without a ton of movement, Johnson can lead all of AA (Eastern,Southern and Texas) in ERA, and between all of AA & AAA, only one other pitcher has better ERA
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Post by joshv02 on Aug 7, 2014 12:00:40 GMT -5
funny that with a 88-90 FB without a ton of movement, Johnson can lead all of AA (Eastern,Southern and Texas) in ERA, and between all of AA & AAA, only one other pitcher has better ERA OK. Now its been said he can get his fastball up to 94/95 and he's left handed. Where does his low ceiling come from? Is it the fact that his off speed pitches are just average? It would seem that a left handed pitcher that can reach 94/95 on his fastball and put up the numbers he has in double A would have a much higher ceiling. To which I responded He gets up to 94, but he sits at 88-90, without a ton of movement. What are you disagreeing with, exactly?
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 7, 2014 12:01:52 GMT -5
He gets up to 94, but he sits at 88-90, without a ton of movement. funny that with a 88-90 FB without a ton of movement, Johnson can lead all of AA (Eastern,Southern and Texas) in ERA, and between all of AA & AAA, only one other pitcher has better ERA Not really funny. Pitchers with good location and pitchability tend to dominate in the minor leagues, and that is Johnson's profile. I disagree with the above about fastball movement being so vital, though. If his secondary pitches didn't move that would be bad, but there are plenty of successful pitchers with plus command of a straight fastball, especially if they can dial it up to 94 when necessary.
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Post by awall on Aug 7, 2014 14:10:31 GMT -5
Is it really true that his FB doesn't have movement? Not according to his bio page here.
I'll wait until the hitters he faces tell me that his FB isn't good enough to be a ML starter.
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 7, 2014 14:15:57 GMT -5
Is it just me or does Johnson fit the Buehrle comp perfectly?
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Post by jchang on Aug 7, 2014 16:59:25 GMT -5
the original quote was "without a ton of movement" which is not the same as no movement. So JD is saying that location + pitchability + movement on the secondary pitches can dominate in the minors. I don't its worth arguing over whether Johnson could project as more than a 4/5 starter. He is playing good enough that he could a shot in Boston mid/late next year. Other people pine for a 1/2 starter, but those are hard to find. A good 4 starter playing for min salary saves the club $10M/yr on a free agent starter, that could be used elsewhere.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 7, 2014 17:30:20 GMT -5
Is it just me or does Johnson fit the Buehrle comp perfectly? Would be thrilled if he's the next Buehrle.
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Post by redsox1534 on Aug 7, 2014 18:00:53 GMT -5
Well I think he sits more like 90 91. Movement isnt great but but his command, mechanics and ability to throw all his pitches in any count for strikes is great. He is very similar to Buehrle in some aspects. I still believe he is a future #3 on a team with a couple ALLstars at the top of the rotation.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 7, 2014 19:59:43 GMT -5
Well I think he sits more like 90 91. Movement isnt great but but his command, mechanics and ability to throw all his pitches in any count for strikes is great. He is very similar to Buehrle in some aspects. I still believe he is a future #3 on a team with a couple ALLstars at the top of the rotation. Buehrle's avg fastball sits at 83.4 this year. I don't think he's ever visited 94 mph.
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