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Post by larrycook on Aug 7, 2014 20:59:07 GMT -5
Is it really true that his FB doesn't have movement? Not according to his bio page here. I'll wait until the hitters he faces tell me that his FB isn't good enough to be a ML starter. This far Johnson 's combination of command and execution has been more than enough for the hitters he has faced thus far. Until we move workman to the pen or Buchholz to the pen, he will not get a chance to do it at Pawtucket,
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Post by jmei on Aug 7, 2014 21:38:28 GMT -5
Is it just me or does Johnson fit the Buehrle comp perfectly? Mark Buehrle is a fairly unique pitcher for a variety of reasons. Just like Randy Johnson or Greg Maddux, he probably isn't a guy you ever want to use as a comp for a prospect.
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 8, 2014 5:14:23 GMT -5
I typically don't put any value into comps, I wasn't trying to say Johnson will put up "xx" stats because of this comp. I only really talk about a comp when it's close, and size, pitches, and being left handed they are pretty close.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 8, 2014 14:04:56 GMT -5
There's a superficial comparison in that Buehrle is a big but very athletic lefty with plus pitchability and approach. Stuff and delivery-wise there really aren't any similarities there. Buehrle generates a ton of groundballs with a three-quarters delivery that creates tough angles on a low-80's sinker. That just doesn't describe Johnson at all. Buehrle has been one of the better pitchers of his generation, he's working on his 14th straight 200-inning season. He's had a sub-100 ERA+ only once.
It should be noted that part of why Buehrle so often outperforms his peripherals is that he is fantastic at holding runners and he is one of the best fielding pitchers of all time.
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Post by raftsox on Aug 8, 2014 14:47:25 GMT -5
There's a superficial comparison in that Buehrle is a big but very athletic lefty with plus pitchability and approach. Stuff and delivery-wise there really aren't any similarities there. Buehrle generates a ton of groundballs with a three-quarters delivery that creates tough angles on a low-80's sinker. That just doesn't describe Johnson at all. Buehrle has been one of the better pitchers of his generation, he's working on his 14th straight 200-inning season. He's had a sub-100 ERA+ only once. It should be noted that part of why Buehrle so often outperforms his peripherals is that he is fantastic at holding runners and he is one of the best fielding pitchers of all time. That's as good of an argument as I've ever heard for not using only FIP or RA as a basis for WAR.
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Post by awall on Aug 8, 2014 15:36:46 GMT -5
I still think of Jimmy Key when I see Johnson.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 13, 2014 10:48:07 GMT -5
Brian Johnson is a former first-round pick who has a 1.87 ERA, 0.991 WHIP and 2.93 K/BB in 106 Double-A innings as a 23-year old. That has to be a Top-100 prospect. There are a lot of people who I respect greatly who have scouted him and say he has the upside of a #5, but this is a place where I just simply disagree. He's doing too much well with his experience level not to be considered for real. There have been pages and pages on the disconnect between the scouting and stats of Henry Owens, but with Johnson the disconnect is even bigger. Johnson has the much lower walk rate, a slightly lower HR rate, a .001 higher opponents batting average.
The thing with Johnson, having seen him a couple times, is the lack of projection. He looks like a 30-year old. He's filled out already. There's not "he's going to add velocity as he gets bigger." There's no individual thing he can get a lot better at. But he's already someone who throws strikes and keeps the ball in the park. He can also dial up 94-95 with the fastball, so it's not like he's throwing trick pitches that minor leaguers can't hit. Also, he's still relatively inexperienced. He had 90.2 professional innings coming into this season, and he was a two-way player in college. He was slagged off as the "Safe Pick" when he was drafted, but the Red Sox insisted at the time that he wasn't. They believed that he had the physical tools to blossom once he was fully focused on pitching, and that's exactly what has happened.
This is exactly the sort of player who Billy Beane has gotten famous for stealing since the early 2000's. He's the sort of player without a great physical projection or an elite tool, so he gets ignored. But Johnson already does everything well. I'm not saying he's a future ace or anything like that, but it's time to take him very seriously as a prospect.
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Post by soxfan06 on Aug 13, 2014 13:37:18 GMT -5
Brian Johnson is a former first-round pick who has a 1.87 ERA, 0.991 WHIP and 2.93 K/BB in 106 Double-A innings as a 23-year old. That has to be a Top-100 prospect. There are a lot of people who I respect greatly who have scouted him and say he has the upside of a #5, but this is a place where I just simply disagree. He's doing too much well with his experience level not to be considered for real. There have been pages and pages on the disconnect between the scouting and stats of Henry Owens, but with Johnson the disconnect is even bigger. Johnson has the much lower walk rate, a slightly lower HR rate, a .001 higher opponents batting average. The thing with Johnson, having seen him a couple times, is the lack of projection. He looks like a 30-year old. He's filled out already. There's not "he's going to add velocity as he gets bigger." There's no individual thing he can get a lot better at. But he's already someone who throws strikes and keeps the ball in the park. He can also dial up 94-95 with the fastball, so it's not like he's throwing trick pitches that minor leaguers can't hit. Also, he's still relatively inexperienced. He had 90.2 professional innings coming into this season, and he was a two-way player in college. He was slagged off as the "Safe Pick" when he was drafted, but the Red Sox insisted at the time that he wasn't. They believed that he had the physical tools to blossom once he was fully focused on pitching, and that's exactly what has happened. This is exactly the sort of player who Billy Beane has gotten famous for stealing since the early 2000's. He's the sort of player without a great physical projection or an elite tool, so he gets ignored. But Johnson already does everything well. I'm not saying he's a future ace or anything like that, but it's time to take him very seriously as a prospect. Anyone who isn't taking him seriously as a prospect, isn't paying attention and isn't worth listening to when they talk about Johnson. It would be one thing if he was doing what he was doing at a lower level in the minors but he isn't. He's at AA and pitching like a super prospect. While he may not be a super prospect, you don't get those numbers by accident. I'm excited to see him in Pawtucket. See how he fares against a little more advanced hitters. I think he could be a middle of the rotation guy, but if he ends up being a #5, I'd be happy with that too. People always seem to discount back of the rotation starters. Those guys are very valuable. Sure, we all want #1s and #2s but you also need good to very good #4s and #5s cause they can steal you a lot of wins.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 13, 2014 14:29:49 GMT -5
I felt before the year started that he might be moving quickly. I don't think anyone who's control is this good has the ceiling of a fifth starter unless they're stuff is perfectly forgettable. The little I've seen of him, it's better than that. I have no idea where he fits in a major league rotation. But I'm convinced he belongs in one.
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Post by ibsmith85 on Aug 13, 2014 14:32:16 GMT -5
I'm excited to see him in Pawtucket. See how he fares against a little more advanced hitters. I think he could be a middle of the rotation guy, but if he ends up being a #5, I'd be happy with that too. People always seem to discount back of the rotation starters. Those guys are very valuable. Sure, we all want #1s and #2s but you also need good to very good #4s and #5s cause they can steal you a lot of wins. I think the key to back-end starters being valuable, is the homegrown part, back end FA starters making $10-12m+/yr are the reason they are looked at negatively, guys like Guthrie, Vargas, etc. Players like Johnson, homegrown and cost controlled, who fill out your rotation adequately are very valuable IMO. Obviously allowing you to spend the money on elite FA starters instead.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Aug 13, 2014 14:51:07 GMT -5
I started to type a comment here, but it was basically just a rehash of what James said, so ... yeah, what James said.
I think Johnson's always been a bit typecast as an "advanced college pitcher," which causes people to discount his stats. Especially when he didn't dominate Greenville coming out of the gate last year ... now, there's some truth to it, no doubt. So we'll know more about Johnson when he gets to AAA, but I think he's got a ceiling of a mid-rotation guy who eats innings.
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 13, 2014 14:55:03 GMT -5
Johnson, Ranaudo, Workman are all 4th-6th SPs in the majors more of less (I like Ranaudo a little more but whatever). The problem is that those guys will always be worth more to their own team, than in trade value.
Johnson is the kind of guy who halfway through a good AAA season next year *should* have super high value (cost controlled for 6 years, with a floor of a number 5 for the sake of argument). There should be a dozen teams begging for that. But they wont.
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Post by jmei on Aug 13, 2014 15:09:05 GMT -5
Brian Johnson is a former first-round pick who has a 1.87 ERA, 0.991 WHIP and 2.93 K/BB in 106 Double-A innings as a 23-year old. I hate to do this, but... he's also got a 3.00 FIP and 3.68 SIERA this year in Portland. Now, those marks are still really good, but I can kind of understand why he's still projected to be a back-end guy. He doesn't really have a great swing-and-miss offering, and he's more of a fly ball guy (40.8% GB this year in Portland, career 42%; major-league average is 44%) who doesn't get a ton of infield fly balls (8.9% this year in Portland, career 9.1%; major league average is 10%). His peripherals this year in Portland (7.47 K/9, 2.55 BB/9, 0.42 HR/9) are not too dissimilar from Michael Bowden's at the same level (8.19 K/9, 2.55 BB/9, 0.63 HR/9), a similar pitcher with an advanced four-pitch mix and above-average command who carved up minor-league hitters. Bowden, of course, struggled to miss bats at the major-league level and is now a fringy major leaguer. I'm not saying Johnson will be Bowden (for one thing, Johnson has the advantage of being a lefty), but I'd suggest that we shouldn't get too excited about a flashy ERA driven by a low BABIP and home run prevention. Now, you and others have made good points about how he likely still has some development left (considering he was a two-way guy in college and missed significant time with the jaw injury), so maybe he continues to refine his fastball command or develops enough feel for his curveball that it becomes a true swing-and-miss weapon. I certainly think he's a major leaguer and a legitimate prospect who I'll be watching closely. But I also understand why most scouts project him as a back-end-of-the-rotation-guy and why he'll probably be left off most of the top 100s this offseason.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 13, 2014 15:10:35 GMT -5
I hate to do this, but isn't BABIP more likely a skill in the minors?
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Post by jmei on Aug 13, 2014 15:25:39 GMT -5
I hate to do this, but isn't BABIP more likely a skill in the minors? It's more likely to be a skill, especially in the low minors, but that doesn't mean that every pitcher who puts up a low minor league BABIP is destined to be able to sustain it in the majors. Johnson has a career .256 BABIP, but that's in all of 222.1 career minor league innings, and exactly one major league starter has sustained a BABIP that low in the last decade. He also doesn't show any of the attributes of pitchers who can consistently outperform their peripherals in the majors (high IFFB%, elite strikeout or command, etc). I don't want this thread to devolve into the DIPS stuff all over again, though, so we can just agree to disagree and move on, unless it's specific to Johnson (if you still have thoughts to add on DIPS in general, feel free to post them on this thread instead).
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 13, 2014 16:01:40 GMT -5
I like Johnson but he's exactly the kind of guy we should trade to a team like San Diego, where fly ball pitchers go to heaven. And I'm pretty sure they would want him badly. He'd be in the rotation next year probably.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 13, 2014 16:13:37 GMT -5
I like Johnson but he's exactly the kind of guy we should trade to a team like San Diego, where fly ball pitchers go to heaven. And I'm pretty sure they would want him badly. He'd be in the rotation next year probably. He's not really a fly ball pitcher. 30.2% this year, 27.2% for his minor league career.
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Post by jmei on Aug 13, 2014 16:34:17 GMT -5
I like Johnson but he's exactly the kind of guy we should trade to a team like San Diego, where fly ball pitchers go to heaven. And I'm pretty sure they would want him badly. He'd be in the rotation next year probably. He's not really a fly ball pitcher. 30.2% this year, 27.2% for his minor league career. You're only looking at outfield fly balls, so a 30.2% outfield fly ball rate would be really high. For instance, only three qualified AL pitchers have higher outfield fly ball rates this year (Chris Young, Jake Odorizzi, Max Scherzer).
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 13, 2014 18:27:30 GMT -5
Michael Bowden put up those numbers when he could still throw a curveball though. Once he lost that, he became basically a two-pitch pitcher since his slider was never more than a show-me fourth pitch.
FanGraphs actually shows Johnson's FIP to be a bit higher, at 3.15. That's a big jump from his ERA, but it's also tied with Henry Owens for the best FIP in the Eastern League among qualified pitchers, and seventh in all of Double-A. He's fourth in the EL in K%, fifth in K:BB ratio. This all came after a month of abusing High-A batters as well, striking out over 30% and posting a 1.81 WHIP.
I'm not getting the same GB/FB numbers as you. I'm seeing him at 43.1% GB, and a 28.5% FB, with 24.5% of those in the infield. Nothing there sticks out to me. He's not going to sustain a .251 BABIP, but I'm not expecting a sub-2.00 ERA out of him. I do think he has a reasonable projection of a 3.50-3.75 ERA while eating innings, which makes him a number three, and I also think his chances of becoming at least a #5 are higher than nearly every pitcher in the minors. That's a Top-100 prospect to me.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 13, 2014 18:53:46 GMT -5
When I saw Bowden playing for Lancaster years ago, that overhand curve ball was his best pitch, dropping out of the sky on hitters. Apparently the Sox didn't like his delivery and they reworked it. The next time I watched him a few seasons later, it was no more. I agree that there's not much comparability. Bowden was projected as a reliever from his earliest days in the system. I don't think that's been.said about Johnson.
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Post by jmei on Aug 13, 2014 19:11:35 GMT -5
Michael Bowden put up those numbers when he could still throw a curveball though. Once he lost that, he became basically a two-pitch pitcher since his slider was never more than a show-me fourth pitch. FanGraphs actually shows Johnson's FIP to be a bit higher, at 3.15. That's a big jump from his ERA, but it's also tied with Henry Owens for the best FIP in the Eastern League among qualified pitchers, and seventh in all of Double-A. He's fourth in the EL in K%, fifth in K:BB ratio. This all came after a month of abusing High-A batters as well, striking out over 30% and posting a 1.81 WHIP. I'm not getting the same GB/FB numbers as you. I'm seeing him at 43.1% GB, and a 28.5% FB, with 24.5% of those in the infield. Nothing there sticks out to me. He's not going to sustain a .251 BABIP, but I'm not expecting a sub-2.00 ERA out of him. I do think he has a reasonable projection of a 3.50-3.75 ERA while eating innings, which makes him a number three, and I also think his chances of becoming at least a #5 are higher than nearly every pitcher in the minors. That's a Top-100 prospect to me. Ground ball numbers for minor leaguers are apparently really inconsistent? Per Minor League Central (which I've been generally using), Johnson has a 40.8% GB rate this year. But per MLBFarm, Johnson has a 44.6% GB, and per the SoxPropspects database, it's 43.1%. No clue what's causing that inconsistency, but it's a reasonably sizable one. ADD: apparently MLC separates out bunts (2.1% this year in Portland), which seems to account for most of the inconsistency. I also just realized that Minor League Central's measure of IFFB% is calculated as [IFFB]/[all balls in play], which is very different from how literally every other database calculates IFFB% ([IFFB]/[FB]). That substantially changes my evaluation of Johnson (and Ranaudo, and several others). If he can really generate so many infield fly balls, he stands a good chance of being able to consistently outperform a league-average BABIP. (It also calls into question Minor League Central's SIERA calculations, which seem to have minor inconsistencies from Fangraphs' SIERA for the few major leaguers that I just spot-checked. And, as you mentioned, their FIP for Johnson is different as well from Fangraphs' FIP for him. Maybe just bad data entry or something, which is unfortunate, because MLC had some neat data and splits.) So, yeah, ignore most of what I wrote above. I do think he might still have a tough time maintaining his strikeout rate without an above-average secondary pitch, but maybe his changeup and curveball have improved enough that he can get swings-and-misses with them in the majors. A 3.50 ERA seems aggressive, but he could easily be a 4.00 ERA kind of guy in the majors, and that's probably a number four starter ( league-average starting pitcher ERA this year is 3.88).
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Post by jmei on Aug 13, 2014 19:19:24 GMT -5
Bowden was projected as a reliever from his earliest days in the system. I don't think that's been.said about Johnson. This is tangential, but Bowden was definitely projected as a starting pitcher for most of his prospect career. It's true that he just lost his curveball and was never the same, but he had been a pretty highly-rated guy coming up (including cracking some top 100s IIRC).
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,966
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Post by jimoh on Aug 13, 2014 19:25:13 GMT -5
Bowden was projected as a reliever from his earliest days in the system. I don't think that's been.said about Johnson. This is tangential, but Bowden was definitely projected as a starting pitcher for most of his prospect career. It's true that he just lost his curveball and was never the same, but he had been a pretty highly-rated guy coming up (including cracking some top 100s IIRC). Brian Rose was BBA's #22 prospect in 1998, 44 in 1997, 78 in 1996. Yes, "definitely projected as a starting pitcher for most of his prospect career." Some worried that his stuff would not play as well higher up, and then his stuff as you say actually got worse.
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 13, 2014 19:29:55 GMT -5
Brian Rose?
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Post by hammerhead on Aug 13, 2014 20:14:04 GMT -5
One thing that I heard while listening to "Year of the Elbow" on MLB's XM network was Leo Mazzone keep saying that his starting pitchers Maddux and Glavine (and to some extent Smoltz)never got hurt because they weren't max effort guys on every pitch. He was saying that nowadays every guy who has 95MPH velocity is always max effort. He said that what's missing in today's game is pitchers that can dial it up when they need it, but can get guys out throwing 90% or less effort. He was saying that his big three could all hit mid 90's but only did so when they needed it. He uses that as an example of why every other guy is getting Tommy John now.
That being said... and while I think Mazzone is sometimes a tool, he does have a point. I look at a guy like Brian Johnson who has the ability to top out at 94 or 95 yet only hits it when he really needs to reach back and I wonder if that's why scouts aren't doing backflips about him. Everything is about velocity when it comes to scouting. I wonder if he would have been a hotter prospect back in the day.
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