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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 13, 2014 20:27:37 GMT -5
Johnson helped save that draft for the Red Sox.
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Post by cologneredsox on Aug 14, 2014 1:47:28 GMT -5
One thing that I heard while listening to "Year of the Elbow" on MLB's XM network was Leo Mazzone keep saying that his starting pitchers Maddux and Glavine (and to some extent Smoltz)never got hurt because they weren't max effort guys on every pitch. He was saying that nowadays every guy who has 95MPH velocity is always max effort. He said that what's missing in today's game is pitchers that can dial it up when they need it, but can get guys out throwing 90% or less effort. He was saying that his big three could all hit mid 90's but only did so when they needed it. He uses that as an example of why every other guy is getting Tommy John now. That being said... and while I think Mazzone is sometimes a tool, he does have a point. I look at a guy like Brian Johnson who has the ability to top out at 94 or 95 yet only hits it when he really needs to reach back and I wonder if that's why scouts aren't doing backflips about him. Everything is about velocity when it comes to scouting. I wonder if he would have been a hotter prospect back in the day. And that's why I like Owens as well. Everywhere young sp prospects are dropping like flies, but these two young pitchers are able to put good numbers while showing a relatively slow fastball. I keep hoping that will last even in the bigs.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 14, 2014 8:30:48 GMT -5
Bowden was projected as a reliever from his earliest days in the system. I don't think that's been.said about Johnson. This is tangential, but Bowden was definitely projected as a starting pitcher for most of his prospect career. It's true that he just lost his curveball and was never the same, but he had been a pretty highly-rated guy coming up (including cracking some top 100s IIRC). I remember it differently, but I could certainly be wrong. There were concerns about his motion, which was admittedly very different, and talk even in the low minors that it would have to change. With that was a concern that he might not be able to stay as a starter. Coming to you from the great northwest
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 14, 2014 9:51:32 GMT -5
Yes, Bowden did sort of short-arm the ball. I have no idea if that was part of the reason why his dominant minor league performance didn't translate.
Bowden is a good cautionary tale of how minor league statistical dominance doesn't always lead to major league success, but I'm not sure the comparison with Johnson is necessarily apt. That doesn't mean that Johnson won't bust, though, to use an overly-confusing double negative.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Aug 14, 2014 10:10:02 GMT -5
Bowden was a little bit controversial (some liked him as a starter, some thought he was a reliever), but I don't think too many people wrote him off as a starter completely.
But, really, I don't think there's all that much similar about the two guys. Bowden's a good example of the fact that AA history is filled with guys who put up good numbers in AA but don't pan out, but beyond that general caution I'm not sure there's much to learn. Johnson's mechanics are clean, he's a lefty, has an ability to dial it up that Bowden didn't, etc, etc ...
Full disclosure: Bowden's the guy I missed the biggest on here. I saw him once and loved him (his curve buckled guys, and he threw pretty well the time I saw him), so I was all-in on him from there on ... which does make me humble in my assessment of Johnson. I think he's got potential to be better than a #5, but I'm not going to really buy into it until I see him in AAA.
Oh, and as an aside, Bowden had the best "why he was a steal at that draft position" story of any Sox prospect in the last decade.
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Post by jmei on Aug 14, 2014 10:54:28 GMT -5
The thing that drew me to a Bowden comp was that, like Johnson, he was a guy who had success with a multi-pitch mix without an overwhelming fastball or one standout offspeed pitch (though you could make an argument that his curveball was that pitch). Bowden was also another guy with advanced pitchability who used all his pitches in any count.
This is somewhat of an unverified hypothesis, but I've always thought guys like that (with multiple pitches that they will throw in any count; Chris Hernandez or even Clay Buchholz might be other examples) could carve up minor leaguers but will struggle more against major leaguers (who have better advanced scouting and who have the pitch recognition to lay off the offspeed stuff and hone in on the fastball). In other words, it's easier to pitch backwards in the minors, where being able to command any half-decent offspeed pitch gives guys fits. For instance, even hanging breaking balls in the minors still get a ton of whiffs/off-balanced swings just because guys don't have the timing to stay back on them.
But once you're in the majors, there's a higher threshold of either stuff (velo/movement on your fastball, movement/deception on your offspeed) or command (the ability to throw quality strikes away from guys' hot zones and minimize mistakes) necessary to keep major league hitters off-balance. I'm just not sure whether Johnson rates highly enough in either of those departments to sustain his success, or at least project to be more than a back-end guy. Has he improved his command enough to be able to get away with average raw stuff?
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 14, 2014 12:37:19 GMT -5
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 14, 2014 12:38:14 GMT -5
BP 8/13 chat:
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Post by glassox on Aug 23, 2014 21:48:30 GMT -5
Another nice game tonight. When he was picked by the Red Sox in 2012 I thought damn the dude looks 27. Also I strangely wanted to doubt him and felt he wasn't much of a prospect. I thought of him as shorter than 6'3 and just a soft tosser. Being a die hard i wanted him to be every part the player his numbers suggest he is capable of. I especially like his numbers vs. mlb.com top 20 team prospects. Avg. PA AB Hits 2B 3B HR SO BB K% BB% 0.197 198 178 35 7 1 3 49 16 24.7% 8.1% I do like any pitcher that can repeat his motion with ease, pitches quickly, and eats innings. I can see the Mark Buehrle comparison being right on. So here is to hoping my first assumptions was wrong.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 21, 2015 18:35:28 GMT -5
Space is quickly becoming limited on the official Brian Johnson bandwagon. Hop aboard now.
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Post by m1keyboots on Apr 21, 2015 22:23:04 GMT -5
Space is quickly becoming limited on the official Brian Johnson bandwagon. Hop aboard now. all of a sudden his average 4 pitch mix will play well in the league. All the while he hasn't changed much and keeps chugging along. Id love to compare him to a mark mulder-lite Stuf and command wise. Like many I've been on the wagon. We can ease off the brakes and start the hype. As well as margot, swi, Deven, HO, E-rod, uhhh, devers longhi and guerra. Secretly crushing on asaujes wagon
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Post by wcsoxfan on Apr 22, 2015 13:23:53 GMT -5
Another nice game tonight. When he was picked by the Red Sox in 2012 I thought damn the dude looks 27. Also I strangely wanted to doubt him and felt he wasn't much of a prospect. I thought of him as shorter than 6'3 and just a soft tosser. Being a die hard i wanted him to be every part the player his numbers suggest he is capable of. I especially like his numbers vs. mlb.com top 20 team prospects. Avg. PA AB Hits 2B 3B HR SO BB K% BB% 0.197 198 178 35 7 1 3 49 16 24.7% 8.1% I do like any pitcher that can repeat his motion with ease, pitches quickly, and eats innings. I can see the Mark Buehrle comparison being right on. So here is to hoping my first assumptions was wrong. I also like the Buehrle comparisons. Main differences I can see are: Buehrle was a 38th round draft pick, Buehrle had inferior K/9 numbers in the minors. The biggest items of note for Buehrle are his pitch speed (Johnson has that), his command/control (Johnson seems to have that), his strong ground ball numbers and his fantastic defense. Does anyone know how Johnson's defense and ground ball rates stack up compare to Buehrle? Here's a look back to try and figure out where the scouts went wrong in evaluating Buehrle. This guy had him as a 'C' prospect. www.minorleagueball.com/2013/4/19/4236318/prospect-retrospective-mark-buehrle
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Post by jmei on Apr 22, 2015 14:09:09 GMT -5
You can see Johnson's ground ball rates on SoxProspects' new individual player stat pages: www.soxprospects.com/stats/pitcher.php?player=598271 (I really want to give a big plug for our stat pages, which are excellent and underused). His ground ball rates have been above-average, but not elite. Of course, neither were Buehrle's (career 45.4%).
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Post by redsoxnh2014 on Apr 22, 2015 15:26:04 GMT -5
Space is quickly becoming limited on the official Brian Johnson bandwagon. Hop aboard now. True, but I'll hold off jumping on until we see him at the big league level. I love the mix of pitches, not to mention the fact that since he is a control pitcher there's less chance he'll be buying a ticket on the Tommy John wagon, and I do think he'll be a solid big league pitcher. But I would like to see him face some big league hitters.
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Post by johnmark on Apr 25, 2015 12:19:13 GMT -5
Bring Johnson up now...he is better than what is currently going up to the mound. It will take. An adjustmentis to be expected, of course, but it is evident that he is ready for it.
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Post by ctfisher on Apr 27, 2015 8:00:01 GMT -5
Bring Johnson up now...he is better than what is currently going up to the mound. It will take. An adjustmentis to be expected, of course, but it is evident that he is ready for it. That's a little premature given the guys had like 5 starts in AAA and Miley (who I'm assuming you would suggest be bumped) has made 4 starts and has a strong track record. The pitching has been worrying, no doubt, but I sincerely doubt Brian Johnson would be better over the rest of the season than Wade Miley or anyone else in the rotation right now. That said, if things keep going the way they're going, by the end of May, it might be time to give Rodriguez or Johnson a shot
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Post by Jonathan Singer on Apr 27, 2015 8:32:51 GMT -5
Bring Johnson up now...he is better than what is currently going up to the mound. It will take. An adjustmentis to be expected, of course, but it is evident that he is ready for it. They would bring up Eduardo Rodriguez before they brought up Brian Johnson due to 40 man roster spots.
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Post by okin15 on Apr 27, 2015 8:42:20 GMT -5
Bring Johnson up now...he is better than what is currently going up to the mound. It will take. An adjustmentis to be expected, of course, but it is evident that he is ready for it. They would bring up Eduardo Rodriguez before they brought up Brian Johnson due to 40 man roster spots. Depends. I don't think they're bringing up Eduardo until they feel he's really ready. He's got too much of a future here to short circuit his progression. Though maybe he is ready now.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 27, 2015 8:55:09 GMT -5
They would bring up Eduardo Rodriguez before they brought up Brian Johnson due to 40 man roster spots. Depends. I don't think they're bringing up Eduardo until they feel he's really ready. He's got too much of a future here to short circuit his progression. Though maybe he is ready now. If you've followed this team for awhile, you know they're not going to dump someone they feel they need on the 40 man to get a marginal upgrade if you could even argue that. Johnson might be added to the 40 only if there's a 60-day DL trip for someone else at this point of the season.
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Post by iakovos11 on Apr 27, 2015 9:10:09 GMT -5
If Rodriguez is ready, he'll likely get the call. On the other hand, I cannot imagine it would be too hard a decision to DFA Spruill to make room for Johnson if they feel like he's the best option. And that may be the case if they need someone to come pitch in Boston before June. Not sure where the Sox feel Rodriguez is in terms of his ultimate development.
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Post by johnmark on Apr 27, 2015 11:01:47 GMT -5
Congrats to Brian for winning Pitcher of the Week for the IL.
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Post by michael on Apr 27, 2015 12:15:48 GMT -5
Congrats to Brian for winning Pitcher of the Week for the IL. Operative words here: "for the IL"
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 27, 2015 12:24:43 GMT -5
Congrats to Brian for winning Pitcher of the Week for the IL. Operative words here: "for the IL" Well he can't win an award for a league he isn't in.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 27, 2015 13:02:46 GMT -5
Considering Johnson was a very good batter in college does that make him a good fit for a trade to the NL? Like maybe the Phillies? If you are a NL GM does a pitchers ability at the plate come into consideration when evaluating?
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Post by johnmark on Apr 27, 2015 13:05:44 GMT -5
Considering Johnson was a very good batter in college does that make him a good fit for a trade to the NL? Like maybe the Phillies? If you are a NL GM does a pitchers ability at the plate come into consideration when evaluating? No. You expect nothing and any production at the plate is a bonus. It is all about pitching ability and potential. He could rake at UF though!
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