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SS of the Future: Bogaerts or Marrero?
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Post by elguapo on Jul 3, 2014 8:22:05 GMT -5
Based on previous comments by the brass, that Triple-A players are largely believed to be MLB-ready, Marrero is now a legit option for this season at SS if Drew gets dealt, and Bogaerts stays at third. Might require a full-on rebuild, but that's what I'm reading into this. Assuming no roster changes, I like Marrero at AAA to begin next season, ready as an injury replacement, with Bogaertsstarting at SS. No hurry getting him to the majors -- he can fine tune his improved hitting mechanics against AAA pitching. In reality I expect, and hope, Ben can remake the roster significantly.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 3, 2014 8:30:40 GMT -5
Based on previous comments by the brass, that Triple-A players are largely believed to be MLB-ready, Marrero is now a legit option for this season at SS if Drew gets dealt, and Bogaerts stays at third. Might require a full-on rebuild, but that's what I'm reading into this. Assuming no roster changes, I like Marrero at AAA to begin next season, ready as an injury replacement, with Bogaertsstarting at SS. No hurry getting him to the majors -- he can fine tune his improved hitting mechanics against AAA pitching. In reality I expect, and hope, Ben can remake the roster significantly. That probably suits our roster best. Give WMB another shot at 3b. Let Marrero, Cecchini, Coyle and Shaw be your AAA infield.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 3, 2014 9:08:19 GMT -5
. 1) Bogaerts has more value at SS than 3B. The baseline is that he loses 10.5 runs of value making the switch. He may, however, gain some defensive value by playing 3B better than SS. Exactly how much value, we don't know yet (and it could be zero). We ought to know much better by the end of 2015, especially if he plays most of this year at 3B and most of next at SS. 2) We don't know how good a hitter Marrero will be. We'll know much better by the end of next year, as well. 3) We don't know how good our other 3B options will be, and this is much more uncertain than the other two. How good will we think WMB is, a year and a half from now? How about Cecchini? How about Coyle? If JBJ has established himself in center, is Mookie available to play 3B? Who's available on the trade market? Maybe Billy Beane has finally won himself a WS and is looking to sell high on Josh Donaldson with 3 years of control left. Now, here's the logic you use to make the decision. You start with how good Deven Marrero is. You deduct from that, the amount of value that Xander will be losing if he moves to 3B (10.5 runs per 150, less any defensive value gained). You then take this devalued Deven Marrero and ask, do we have a 3B that good? Or might be we able to get one? If you have a 3B as good or better than [Marrero minus Xander's lost value], then you deal Marrero (this includes scenarios where Marrero himself is traded for the 3B). If there's no one anywhere close to being that good, then you move Xander to 3B and play Marrero at SS. This all makes perfect sense and is logical, but it's not entirely real world productive IMO. You can't build a team off a spreadsheet alone, but that's exactly what people try to do. Some agree that you can't but then want to ignore the rest of the equation because it's not quantifiable so why talk about it? I think what this decision comes down to is one question: Is Xander's glove good enough for what you want out of your short stop? Yea the bat plays a lot more, but short stop is such a key defensive position that that should only matter to a point. You've got to think big (full season) and small (play off series). You can afford to have a butcher at some positions but not at others. Personally, I don't think Xander is a short stop but I think it's possible. He should be playing there for the rest of the season. This team is terrible, time to prepare for next year and part of that is playing Xander at short so you have more answers. No need to be in the dark again next year.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jul 3, 2014 12:36:27 GMT -5
. 1) Bogaerts has more value at SS than 3B. The baseline is that he loses 10.5 runs of value making the switch. He may, however, gain some defensive value by playing 3B better than SS. Exactly how much value, we don't know yet (and it could be zero). We ought to know much better by the end of 2015, especially if he plays most of this year at 3B and most of next at SS. 2) We don't know how good a hitter Marrero will be. We'll know much better by the end of next year, as well. 3) We don't know how good our other 3B options will be, and this is much more uncertain than the other two. How good will we think WMB is, a year and a half from now? How about Cecchini? How about Coyle? If JBJ has established himself in center, is Mookie available to play 3B? Who's available on the trade market? Maybe Billy Beane has finally won himself a WS and is looking to sell high on Josh Donaldson with 3 years of control left. Now, here's the logic you use to make the decision. You start with how good Deven Marrero is. You deduct from that, the amount of value that Xander will be losing if he moves to 3B (10.5 runs per 150, less any defensive value gained). You then take this devalued Deven Marrero and ask, do we have a 3B that good? Or might be we able to get one? If you have a 3B as good or better than [Marrero minus Xander's lost value], then you deal Marrero (this includes scenarios where Marrero himself is traded for the 3B). If there's no one anywhere close to being that good, then you move Xander to 3B and play Marrero at SS. This all makes perfect sense and is logical, but it's not entirely real world productive IMO. You can't build a team off a spreadsheet alone, but that's exactly what people try to do. Some agree that you can't but then want to ignore the rest of the equation because it's not quantifiable so why talk about it? I think what this decision comes down to is one question: Is Xander's glove good enough for what you want out of your short stop? Yea the bat plays a lot more, but short stop is such a key defensive position that that should only matter to a point. You've got to think big (full season) and small (play off series). You can afford to have a butcher at some positions but not at others. Personally, I don't think Xander is a short stop but I think it's possible. He should be playing there for the rest of the season. This team is terrible, time to prepare for next year and part of that is playing Xander at short so you have more answers. No need to be in the dark again next year. I like how this turns the decision into arithmetic. Math good! I always have favored leaving Xander at SS, but with Marrero's real emergence this year, I think I have changed my view. I like keeping Marrero and if he continues his hot aaa start, I would move him to Boston after the deadline to see what we have. If he can hit like he has, a line up that has him hitting ninth can still be a very strong one. The d with JBJ, and Betts in cf/rf, then Devin and Xander on the left side of the infield would certainly be ++.
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Post by okin15 on Jul 3, 2014 13:36:12 GMT -5
The d with JBJ, and Betts in cf/rf, then Devin and Xander on the left side of the infield would certainly be ++. Can we please not pretend that Betts has been even passable in the OF yet? I'm not saying he won't get there, but he looks like someone who just moved to that position, and has made plenty of errors. Arm is not SUPER important in the OF, but it's been a problem already and will continue to be. It's tough to have both he and Bradley in the same starting line-up.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Jul 3, 2014 14:09:52 GMT -5
The d with JBJ, and Betts in cf/rf, then Devin and Xander on the left side of the infield would certainly be ++. Can we please not pretend that Betts has been even passable in the OF yet? I'm not saying he won't get there, but he looks like someone who just moved to that position, and has made plenty of errors. Arm is not SUPER important in the OF, but it's been a problem already and will continue to be. It's tough to have both he and Bradley in the same starting line-up. +1 Mookie has looked pretty rough in the outfield, and I am not just talking about the ball off the monster that got by him. Even a couple of relatively routine balls that have required him to take a route have exposed how raw he is to the position(s). JBJ is so smooth he looks like a ballerina out there. Mookie is not quite Elaine Benes, but he isn't Travolta yet either. He needs a lot of work before he is competant in the outfield. With his athleticism, he will almost certainly get there. Lets hope it is soon.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 3, 2014 14:11:58 GMT -5
There's almost a half season to practice without hurting our playoff chances.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 11, 2014 21:12:38 GMT -5
X posting “@nickcafardo: 3 things learned: Red Sox would prefer to keep Bogearts at 3rd. They also want to keep Uehara for next season. Can deal Drew if he hits.”
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Post by ray88h66 on Jul 11, 2014 21:37:08 GMT -5
X posting “@nickcafardo: 3 things learned: Red Sox would prefer to keep Bogearts at 3rd. They also want to keep Uehara for next season. Can deal Drew if he hits.” Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I hope so. And Eric can post my picture with animals. I was young and needed the money.
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Post by mattpicard on Jul 11, 2014 21:54:55 GMT -5
Can we please not pretend that Betts has been even passable in the OF yet? I'm not saying he won't get there, but he looks like someone who just moved to that position, and has made plenty of errors. Arm is not SUPER important in the OF, but it's been a problem already and will continue to be. It's tough to have both he and Bradley in the same starting line-up. +1 Mookie has looked pretty rough in the outfield, and I am not just talking about the ball off the monster that got by him. Even a couple of relatively routine balls that have required him to take a route have exposed how raw he is to the position(s). JBJ is so smooth he looks like a ballerina out there. Mookie is not quite Elaine Benes, but he isn't Travolta yet either. He needs a lot of work before he is competant in the outfield. With his athleticism, he will almost certainly get there. Lets hope it is soon. Really makes you appreciate the awesomeness of Brock Holt. Contrary to Mookie's 29 games of minor league experience in the outfield, Holt went out there for us without having played it once, and has looked bad on, what, one or two plays in 220 innings? Mookie will be fine as he gets more time in the outfield. Even if it takes him awhile to master his jumps and routes, he still has the speed to make him an above average outfielder, at least in a corner.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jul 11, 2014 23:26:00 GMT -5
Marrero: I can't remember any prospect who was a non-roster invite the ST that followed the draft. That shows how high the FO thinks of him! If they think he could be a league average bat, they'll give him the job and keep Bogie at 3rd base.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 12, 2014 1:09:36 GMT -5
I said in another thread that I think the SS job is Marrero's to lose. The Sox want a really good fielding SS. I think they have made that fairly obvious. I think they also have diminished hopes for either Middlebrooks or Cecchini at 3B, as they probably should. So that makes Bogaerts the logical choice.
What they probably didn't factor in was Holt's emergence and the rapid rise of Betts, which they seem to want to damper down by not playing him. I cannot see both Holt and Betts in the OF. Somebody out there has to have some real power. I have no idea how they are going to sort this out.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 12, 2014 6:34:39 GMT -5
I said in another thread that I think the SS job is Marrero's to lose. This is silly. He's in AAA and never had a taste of the majors. And it's his job to lose? No. They may prefer that he step and take the job, but the job is in no way his to lose.
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Post by soxcentral on Jul 12, 2014 8:19:27 GMT -5
I said in another thread that I think the SS job is Marrero's to lose. This is silly. He's in AAA and never had a taste of the majors. And it's his job to lose? No. They may prefer that he step and take the job, but the job is in no way his to lose. I think in the end its Betts that ends up at SS if Marrero does not progress, not Bogaerts. Looking at this as either Bogaerts or Marrero only is too close minded.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 12, 2014 11:39:33 GMT -5
Why didn't the Sox at least try Betts at SS at either Portland or Pawtucket? I agree that if he can handle it, Betts could be the best choice. But the team management doesn't seem oriented to that position.
When I said that the SS job is Marrero's to lose, I meant that if he continues to progress, and to show he can hit - and he doesn't have to hit .300 to be a regular in the majors - then he will win the job next year. Obviously, he will have to keep it by performing at the level expected. The Sox have been aggressive in their moves of him, and that is clear evidence of the team's hopes. There really isn't an obvious alternative candidate for the job right now since the Sox have made it very clear they want to keep Bogaerts at third.
However, I would not rule out Betts getting a shot at it in ST, if he does well the rest of this year. Also, they may try Holt there more.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 12, 2014 22:37:27 GMT -5
Why didn't the Sox at least try Betts at SS at either Portland or Pawtucket? I agree that if he can handle it, Betts could be the best choice. But the team management doesn't seem oriented to that position. When I said that the SS job is Marrero's to lose, I meant that if he continues to progress, and to show he can hit - and he doesn't have to hit .300 to be a regular in the majors - then he will win the job next year. Obviously, he will have to keep it by performing at the level expected. The Sox have been aggressive in their moves of him, and that is clear evidence of the team's hopes. There really isn't an obvious alternative candidate for the job right now since the Sox have made it very clear they want to keep Bogaerts at third. However, I would not rule out Betts getting a shot at it in ST, if he does well the rest of this year. Also, they may try Holt there more. I agree with your overall assessment. I think Marrero is positioning himself for a September call-up and a legit shot at the SS job in 2015. They hope Bogaerts can be a serviceable SS, but he'll probably wind up at 3b anyways and Marrero will probably be a serviceable hitter with a strong glove. It's either that or they hope Cecchini or WMB takes the 3b job, which is less likely. I think WMB winds up getting traded eventually. He's hardly ever healthy. At this point his career path doesn't look that dissimilar to Butch Hobson other than Hobson actually had three seasons where he was semi-productive and played full-time. I still like Cecchini despite his down year and the Red Sox could really use a LH bat in LF going forward. I think that's why they've tried him in LF and I think he could wind up there or 1b IF his bat bounces back and he shows some power, which he has yet to do. I think with Cecchini it could come all at once. He'll need it to or he'll be trade bait as well. I think if the Sox thought that Betts could be a serviceable SS, he would have had a shot at SS in Pawtucket, but that didn't happen. I think the Sox think he can be a passable RF. Perhaps I'm wrong about that and they just did that based on need.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 12, 2014 23:16:06 GMT -5
X posting “@nickcafardo: 3 things learned: Red Sox would prefer to keep Bogearts at 3rd. They also want to keep Uehara for next season. Can deal Drew if he hits.” Hmm... in 332 innings at 3B, Xander is -30 UZR/150, -40 DRS, and -12 TZ. In 536 innings at SS, he's -1 UZR, -15 DRS, and -7 TZ. He's hit .294 / .386 / .430 (254 PA) as a SS and .141 / .184 / .225 (152 PA) as a 3B.* Oh, and all things being equal, he loses 11 runs of value at 3B. Gee, have all things been equal so far? * I don't think for a minute that he went into his slump because he was moved to 3B. But when a normal player goes into a slump and has to work his way out of it, they're not worrying about their defense ... because they're not playing -30 defense at a position they've barely played in their life and really would rather not play. There's no doubt in my mind that being at 3B and having to think about both his hitting and fielding problems is prolonging his slump. That they haven't moved him back to SS so that he can cut the things he has to worry about literally in half basically amounts to ongoing malpractice. I'm praying this is disinformation to hype the value of Drew and/or Marrero. Ditto for not trading Uehara.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 12, 2014 23:22:04 GMT -5
I agree with your overall assessment. I think Marrero is positioning himself for a September call-up and a legit shot at the SS job in 2015. With one caveat, there's zero chance that Marrero is called up for meaningless September action when he doesn't need to be added to the 40-man roster (which is suddenly looking tight and may get tighter with fire sale proceeds), and there's close to zero chance of his opening 2015 as the starting SS after less than half a season in AAA. The caveat is that any team that could sign Stephen Drew when they did is capable of any massively stupid thing you might conceive. However, as many others do, I suspect that was Lucchino's move, not Cherington's.
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Post by bsout2 on Aug 21, 2014 7:41:34 GMT -5
About to ask a question that will probably get me killed on this board............... At what point do the Red Sox worry about what they have in Bogaerts?
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 21, 2014 7:42:56 GMT -5
About to ask a question that will probably get me killed on this board............... At what point do the Red Sox worry about what they have in Bogaerts? 2-3 years with no improvement.
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 21, 2014 7:56:48 GMT -5
Hasn't he had a nagging hand/wrist injury most of the year? I can't find itnow, but I thought I saw a mention of this somewhere.
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Post by bsout2 on Aug 21, 2014 9:17:27 GMT -5
About to ask a question that will probably get me killed on this board............... At what point do the Red Sox worry about what they have in Bogaerts? 2-3 years with no improvement. So you think they will except 2-3 more years of SS hitting .230 and committing 20+ errors before they rethink the position? I am not trying to argue, I just am interested in how a team in a win now mentality will handle the situation. This year is gone (obviously) and the Red Sox are constructing next years team to go for it all again. They need Bogaerts to turn things around if they want to win anything next year.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Aug 21, 2014 9:36:42 GMT -5
I dunno ... 2-3 years is maybe a little long (I'd bet that if Bogaerts looks exactly the same next ASB, they'd be worried), but that's too hypothetical a question. I'm pretty sure the Sox aren't too concerned right now. People have bad years, but especially rookies. His swing still look fundamentally good to me - unlike JBJ's - so I expect him to be better next year.
I'm surprised by his season, but it's just a reminder that you really never know how a rookie year's going to go. And, honestly, he's been a little better at SS than I expected.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 21, 2014 9:40:38 GMT -5
That's not really how I took the question. Worrying about "what they have" in him to me means when do they start to consider that he might be a bust? We are a long, long way off from that.
That doesn't mean that they're going to keep playing him regularly in the big leagues if he continues to be an automatic out combined with poor defense. I would say he gets at least the first half of next year before they consider demoting him to AAA.
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Post by joshv02 on Aug 21, 2014 9:50:02 GMT -5
I expect that they expect that Bogaerts isn't a 230 hitting SS with 20+ errors a year, and it will take a lot of data pointing in that direction before they believe it.
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