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Buy, Sell, or Wait? (aka the Fire Sale Game Thread)
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 25, 2014 10:50:40 GMT -5
I realize that this topic is a slippery slope, but I want to make it clear that this isn't a "trade Jackie Bradley Jr. for Giancarlo" thread.
I realize that we are only at 6/25 and that the AL looks dreadful this year, but the Red Sox are not only 7.0 games back behind the second wild card and 8.5 out of the AL East, but are currently sporting a 35-43 record with one of the worst offenses in the game. It's easy to say that the Red Sox are only 7 games out of a playoff berth, until you realize they are only 4.5 games out of having the worst record in all of baseball. If you feel that the Red Sox are destined to fail this season, would it be better to get out in front of the trade market and try to maximize the value of your players? Would it be beneficial to put out a C-grade lineup/rotation now so that the Red Sox can put themselves in a better drafting position for next season? If you think the Red Sox should buy/stand pat, I'm curious as to what about this team you are hopeful for.
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 25, 2014 11:18:51 GMT -5
Personally I think there are some internal improvements that could be made, and the team has been at least somewhat victimized by bad luck in terms of hitting with runners on and in scoring position, where they were excellent last year with most of the same personnel, and I wouldn't have expected that the losses of ells and salty would have caused that change. I don't think there are many, if any, external trade options that are worth pursuing, given the cost in either money or prospects, so I'd say if there has been no improvement in 2-3 weeks, switch to sell mode, but limit it to players who aren't going to be major pieces going forward. Basically, sell off guys like drew, pierzynski, peavy, doubront and potentially Lackey and Koji if someone overwhelms you with a trade offer, and let the younger, more promising players take their spots (i.e. vazquez, bogaerts at SS, middle brooks/holt at 3b, webster/workman/RDLR/Ranaudo in the rotation). That way we can maybe avoid some growing pains moving forward, and maybe add some more decent prospects/young players, especially in the outfield mix, where I think we have a lot of depth but not much quality
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Post by jmei on Jun 25, 2014 11:24:23 GMT -5
Preface: I think they should sell, and think this front office will do so to the extent possible.
That said, I'll note that "getting in front of the trade market" is not as easy and does not benefit the team as much as you might think. Like in life, most trades that occur in MLB don't get done until the deadline. At this early juncture of hot stove season, teams are feeling each other out in terms of who might be available and what they might cost.
The guys that Boston most wants to move (think Peavy, Pierzynski, Drew, Doubront, Capuano, etc.) are not towards the top of any contender's wish list. Those are the kinds of guys that teams only trade for when they can't afford (in terms of trade cost) anyone better and have to settle. Those are the kinds of guys who only get moved right before the deadline when all the actually-good players have been picked over already (think Boston's acquisition of Erik Bedard in 2011). It's really tough to move them in June, when all the contenders are still kicking the tires on better players and hoping their prices come down. In theory, teams should be willing to pay more to acquire guys in June, because they then get an extra month of that player's services, but this has generally not been true in practice. To move them now, you'd have to essentially give them away for free, whereas if you wait another few weeks, some team may be desperate enough that they offer to pick up most of their salary and/or offer an actual prospect in return.
Of course, you have to balance that potential benefit with the cost that comes from keeping these guys on the roster (i.e., the crowding out of younger players). Sometimes it might make sense to just DFA a guy if you don't think the offers are going to get any better and he's blocking a guy you really need to find playing time for. But I'm not sure we've reached that point with the above names yet.
Meanwhile, the players the Red Sox have who might actually have great trade value (think Lester, Lackey, Uehara, Miller, etc.) are also guys they might want back (at least to some degree) in 2015, which makes trading them a tricky proposition. The front office has to balance the estimated likelihood and the benefit of their potential re-signing with what they might fetch in a trade this summer. That's a difficult balance to strike, especially because the more you explore their trade market this summer (to better estimate the latter half of the above equation), the less likely they might be to re-sign (because noone likes getting floated in trade rumors).
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 25, 2014 11:48:19 GMT -5
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Post by bbscouts on Jun 25, 2014 12:09:03 GMT -5
I think they should wait at least until after the All-Star break. This team still has a championship calliber core. I'm not opposed to selling to gain OF prospects with upside. We seem to have good prospects at the other spots already. I wonder how much the medical issues with Greg Colbrunn have affected the hitters. They all had such a mental toughness last year, working pitchers with long at-bats. I've seen a lot of sloppy at-bats this year. Xander started so well and now looks lost at times. The second half of the order has been so weak, killing rallies before they get started.
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Post by jdb on Jun 25, 2014 12:11:11 GMT -5
Right now you have to wait and see what the next few weeks to month brings. If you can unload Peavy or Doubronunt now to keep a better pitcher in the rotation great but guys like Lester, Lackey and Koji we need to wait on.
I think a team like SD could have interst in Doubrount and maybe we could get OF help there. I think it will be a sellers market and even teams like the Marlins are looking for SP. If we still suck in a month sell but until then we got to wait.
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Post by raftsox on Jun 25, 2014 12:32:02 GMT -5
Preface: I think they should sell, and think this front office will do so to the extent possible. That said, I'll note that "getting in front of the trade market" is not as easy and does not benefit the team as much as you might think. Like in life, most trades that occur in MLB don't get done until the deadline. At this early juncture of hot stove season, teams are feeling each other out in terms of who might be available and what they might cost. The guys that Boston most wants to move (think Peavy, Pierzynski, Drew, Doubront, Capuano, etc.) are not towards the top of any contender's wish list. Those are the kinds of guys that teams only trade for when they can't afford (in terms of trade cost) anyone better and have to settle. Those are the kinds of guys who only get moved right before the deadline when all the actually-good players have been picked over already (think Boston's acquisition of Erik Bedard in 2011). It's really tough to move them in June, when all the contenders are still kicking the tires on better players and hoping their prices come down. In theory, teams should be willing to pay more to acquire guys in June, because they then get an extra month of that player's services, but this has generally not been true in practice. To move them now, you'd have to essentially give them away for free, whereas if you wait another few weeks, some team may be desperate enough that they offer to pick up most of their salary and/or offer an actual prospect in return. Of course, you have to balance that potential benefit with the cost that comes from keeping these guys on the roster (i.e., the crowding out of younger players). Sometimes it might make sense to just DFA a guy if you don't think the offers are going to get any better and he's blocking a guy you really need to find playing time for. But I'm not sure we've reached that point with the above names yet. Meanwhile, the players the Red Sox have who might actually have great trade value (think Lester, Lackey, Uehara, Miller, etc.) are also guys they might want back (at least to some degree) in 2015, which makes trading them a tricky proposition. The front office has to balance the estimated likelihood and the benefit of their potential re-signing with what they might fetch in a trade this summer. That's a difficult balance to strike, especially because the more you explore their trade market this summer (to better estimate the latter half of the above equation), the less likely they might be to re-sign (because noone likes getting floated in trade rumors). ^ This. Except for 1 question: can Drew be traded? You aren't allowed to trade someone for 6 months after signing a contract, so...
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Post by okin15 on Jun 25, 2014 12:51:55 GMT -5
As I've made clear elsewhere, not selling (yet) doesn't mean keeping the under-performing vets (AJP, Peavy, Mujica, Carp, Doubront) on the team or in their current roles. Other than these sell-low candidates, the only guys we can really afford to bail on are Lester and some relievers. Everyone signed through next year is really a core element of 2015 (Mujica excepted, but then again, relievers are volatile year to year.)
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 25, 2014 13:30:47 GMT -5
I would begin laying the groundwork for sales and purchases, as I'm sure the Red Sox are doing.
I would explore the market for trading any pitcher on our 40-man roster.
The only hitters on our 40-man roster that I would deem untouchable are X and Ortiz. Anyone else would be on the table.
Once the groundwork is laid (let's say, by the end of the all-star break), I would begin making moves where there is value to doing so.
(note that trade proposals do not belong in this thread; they belong in the trade proposal thread)
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 25, 2014 13:37:55 GMT -5
I'm opposed to trading Lester at all. Ownership clearly doesn't want to hand out big contracts to free agents, so if Lester is willing to take a discount on his market value, keeping in mind that the market for free agent pitching in the wake of some of the recent contracts is a little crazy, we should jump on it. It's not like we're going to go sign Scherzer or someone, the Rays aren't trading us Price, so where else do we get a staff anchor? Even if you're bullish on Owens, he's clearly not going to be in the majors to start next season, let alone replace Lester. Buchholz is completely unreliable, Lackey's aging and probably not quite as good as Lester anyway, so I say keep Lester as long as the cost isn't prohibitive, Mookie takes one OF spot next year, and with luck, Bradley works himself into being an acceptable hitter once you consider his defense. Victorino can act as a bridge until someone else is ready. I really like Margot, but he's obviously not close to being ready, and I also like the idea of signing Jason Heyward, or ideally getting Stanton, but regardless, I think we're better off not only this year and next, but probably for at least the next 4 years if we keep Lester. I'd just rather we didn't go much beyond 5 years, ~$110-$115m for him
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jun 25, 2014 13:53:00 GMT -5
I pretty much agree with Amfox1. What were the championship core players of this team have pretty much collapsed, and I don't see recovery in the future for most of them. I am hoping that Pedroia once again is playing hurt so that he might be a better hitter in the future. His defense remains exceptional, and he is an exceptional teammate, which makes him, in my mind, untouchable right now.
It would be very useful to see a second half team that had Betts and Vasquez and a couple of the best pitchers in the minors now. I mentioned on a different post that I think Holt should be at third and Bogaerts back at short, with Betts, Bradley and either Nava or Victorino in the OF, and Vasquez behind the plate.
There is no future for the team that started the season, and the sooner the future team is assembled, the better.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 25, 2014 13:55:24 GMT -5
I would certainly entertain moving ANY pitcher in the system in the right deal, and that includes Lester. We have a log-jam in the system, at least, down to Portland. The sooner we find out who the keepers are the better. Henry Owens should really be testing himself in Pawtucket as we speak, and I wouldn't be surprised if Brian Johnson was there in 6 weeks, if we get rid of particular pitchers in the rotation in Boston.
I'm sure Ben has had already hundreds of calls he has initiated feeling out the other clubs. Everyone is always looking for pitching and I would like to see Workman and De La Rosa stay in the rotation until they show they don't belong. Buchholz is in a very precarious position himself. It will be very interesting to see what he does tonight.
I'm all for moving Peavy, Doubront, and Pierzinski. Bring Christian Vasquez up and let Ross further aid his development. Move Swihart up to AAA in a month. Give some starts to Raunando and Webster in Boston.
I'm sure Betts will make his way up before the year is over, but the way things are sorting out, I'd give him another month in AAA.
As for Jon Lester, I hope Ben gives him his absolute best offer NOW and see if that will work. If he is not fine with it, move him before July 31st.
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Post by Jonathan Singer on Jun 25, 2014 14:01:26 GMT -5
Sell
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 25, 2014 14:17:52 GMT -5
As for Jon Lester, I hope Ben gives him his absolute best offer NOW and see if that will work. If he is not fine with it, move him before July 31st. Agreed. If he's not going to stick around we can get a much better return than a draft pick or 2 for him
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Post by rider on Jun 25, 2014 14:18:48 GMT -5
I'd still try to lock up Lester, but otherwise start selling pieces. However, I'd trade Lester in the right package.
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Post by taftreign on Jun 25, 2014 14:21:26 GMT -5
Wait until the All-Star break. After the team finishes this current road trip the schedule leading up to the All-Star break consists of:
Home for 3 vs Chi Cubs (32-43) Home for 3 vs Baltimore (40-36) Lester and Lackey for 2 of 3 Home for 4 vs Chi WSox (36-42) Away for 3 @ Houston (33-45)
Not that winning against lesser competition will prove the team is playoff caliber but it would allow the front office to ascertain what the true position will be entering the trade deadline and the second half. It also would appear to be a stretch for the underachieving to raise any trade value they may have. Additionally it allows for a few of the injured players to get back into the lineup with Buchholz, Doubront, Victoriono, Middlebrooks and Carp.
If the team has a run in them it would start in that 13 game stretch. The team could win each series (2 of 3, 2 of 3, 3 of 4, 2 of 3) or 9 out of 13. A long shot maybe but you get a better idea then if your ready to sell or wait until the deadline and run the tougher post All-Star break 13 games consisting of:
Home for 3 vs KC Away for 4 @ Tor Away for 3 @ TB Home for 3 vs Tor
By the end of July you are going to know with almost certainty having 7 games against the division leading Blue Jays.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 25, 2014 14:27:45 GMT -5
One area I'd be looking to make a trade sooner than later is to clear out a lefty reliever. We have Capuano, Breslow, Miller and Doubront in Boston and Drake Britton, Rich Hill, Chris Hernandez and Tommy Layne in Pawtucket. The Angels, in particular, are looking for a lefty reliever. Their farm system isn't great but, for guys like Capuano and the Pawtucket relievers, we wouldn't be looking for much back. Breslow, Miller and Doubront are more interesting decisions.
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Post by taftreign on Jun 25, 2014 14:32:16 GMT -5
Selective selling in areas of obvious depth or duplication can occur at any time but other parts are a wait for me as reasoned above although i will admit my hopes are low.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 25, 2014 14:35:20 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 25, 2014 15:05:30 GMT -5
One thing I don't see mentioned and I might have my facts wrong but I'll mention it anyways.
If we sell something now, we can trade for IFA cap money. It would then be possible to sign both pitchers we have been linked to without crimping on next year's IFA market. . . . Jayson Stark ?@jaysonst 4h
Asked an exec of one club today who besides Cubs is already aggressively selling. His reply: "Tampa. They're definitely open for business."
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Post by taftreign on Jun 25, 2014 15:38:33 GMT -5
One thing I don't see mentioned and I might have my facts wrong but I'll mention it anyways. If we sell something now, we can trade for IFA cap money. It would then be possible to sign both pitchers we have been linked to without crimping on next year's IFA market. Solid point on the IFA money if it has any chance of actually raising the pool to the "already spent" bonuses. I'd say I'm skeptical the team could get to where they needed with $1,881,700 available currently and I'd project the team to have somewhere in the neighborhood of $3.5 mil in commitments between Acosta and Espinoza alone. Any bonus slot pickups however would allow the team to either save some tax penalty dollars or sign an extra $100,000 to $250,000 prospect or two so it's not a moot point by any means.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 25, 2014 16:17:45 GMT -5
Are those lottery picks that are tradable already established for 2015 for trades?
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 25, 2014 17:50:57 GMT -5
Are those lottery picks that are tradable already established for 2015 for trades? Not yet. Should be done around the all-star break.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 25, 2014 18:36:11 GMT -5
One thing I don't see mentioned and I might have my facts wrong but I'll mention it anyways. If we sell something now, we can trade for IFA cap money. It would then be possible to sign both pitchers we have been linked to without crimping on next year's IFA market. Solid point on the IFA money if it has any chance of actually raising the pool to the "already spent" bonuses. I'd say I'm skeptical the team could get to where they needed with $1,881,700 available currently and I'd project the team to have somewhere in the neighborhood of $3.5 mil in commitments between Acosta and Espinoza alone. Any bonus slot pickups however would allow the team to either save some tax penalty dollars or sign an extra $100,000 to $250,000 prospect or two so it's not a moot point by any means. A few factors here. First, all of the other teams have more money than the Sox due to their finish last year and more importantly, there are always teams that don't intend to spend large amounts in the risky IFA market. I was thinking the 2 player numbers totaled $3.0m but even at $3.5m the $1.7m is obtainable, particularly if the Sox ate contract on a player to a small market team in contention. How many Carps does it take to generate under $2m ? That's not a lot to ask for, it's roughly equivalent to asking for a bag of hockey pucks.
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ianrs
Veteran
Posts: 2,414
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Post by ianrs on Jun 25, 2014 18:36:48 GMT -5
Definitely up for selling. As amfox said, putting all the hitters on the MLB roster out there outside of Ortiz and X. Dealing from surplus (Doubront, Peavy, even Buch) if we can get anything. Of course you don't want to sell too low on any of these guys, but I think its certaintly time for a re-tooling. Sure, this team might be able to compete with one or two additions (via trade or AAA), but realistically these guys aren't a playoff caliber team right now. If they did make the playoffs, I could see a one and done Wild Card appearance, but that's about it. And that's not worth the unprotected draft pick (as well as hanging onto guys who will only help this year) if they want to really go for it next year.
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