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Buy, Sell, or Wait? (aka the Fire Sale Game Thread)
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 30, 2014 22:30:57 GMT -5
Ryan Hannable @ryanhannable · 23m Aside from the Red Sox' seven-game winning streak at the end of May, they have just one other three game winning streak the entire year.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 2, 2014 22:39:38 GMT -5
Roster moves/trades tomorrow. Book it.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 2, 2014 23:49:54 GMT -5
28 days, 15 hours, 10 minutes to the trade deadline.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,915
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 3, 2014 9:43:04 GMT -5
28 days, 15 hours, 10 minutes to the trade deadline. Sox playoff odds were 14 - 17% the last time I checked, which may have been as recently as after the Yankees series. FanGraphs now has them as 7.0% and BP has 5.2%.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 3, 2014 9:45:32 GMT -5
I just want to know who said "buy" and why?
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Post by elguapo on Jul 3, 2014 9:46:21 GMT -5
28 days, 15 hours, 10 minutes to the trade deadline. Now this, ladies & gentlemen, is how comedy is done. Can you please give Hatfield lessons? He tries, sometimes, but.....
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jul 3, 2014 12:47:47 GMT -5
So it looks now like the decision is not if to sell but whom.
1. Peavy(ASAP) (Rubby is ready). I think the value here is much higher than people here think.
2. Drew.(as soon as he hits a bit or at the deadline to bring up Marrero). If we eat the money, this could also be a surprisingly value.
3. AJ the Ahole (ASAP). (Vasquez) A key injury could raise the value but not much.
4. Gomes. (whenever for whatever) would love to include him in a bigger package for something of value.
5. Nava. (see above)
6. Herrera (asap) might have value to a nl team that saw alot of last years performance.
7. Doubront (at the deadline after a few hopefully well performed showcase starts.) this could be a higher value than expected with his contract status.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 3, 2014 13:00:45 GMT -5
Is Nava a trade canidate? I sure hope not. He is pre-arbitration and a very good hitter when platooned. 405 OBP in June. I'm not sure you would get an equal piece back for 2015. Especially the state our OF is in.
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Post by oilcansman on Jul 3, 2014 13:03:45 GMT -5
This season is the perfect time to bring in rookies. The team is coming of a world series and has a lot of good will. The silly mistake some people made was to expect the kids to hit the ground running. Bradley has been a huge disappointment and Bogaerts has slightly underachieved but he's pretty close to a sure thing so he'll be fine.
Letting Ellsbury walk was a good decision. The yankees are having similar problems as the Sox in scoring runs and Ellsbury has not been any sort of solution. He's a 350 obp 750 ops guy. Very solid, but not a difference maker. The Sox need to go all in on the integration of young players because the Sox are out of it.
The way to make the best out of this season is to do the following:
1. Trade uehara for prospects. He's 39 and at some point prince charming will turn into a frog. Huge value (Detroit) for a playoff team; 2. Trade Lackey for prospects or extend him to avoid turning the winter and spring training into a soap opera over his contract. I love the big lug but I think a trade is the way to go. 3. Sign Lester for 6x24 if necessary because Sox have no replacement for him and he's proven 4. In August, release drew is he can't be moved by the deadline and bring up Marrero 5. Get rid of Peavy (trade or release) and get DLR, Renaudo or Webster up (maybe by alternating) and see what they can do 6. Get rid of Gomes (I hear he's real pain in the butt when he's not playing) 7. Get Middlebrooks some time in left field, but obviously mookie is the priority 8. Get victorino healthy for next year. This guy has no value playing with a gimpy body on a below .500 team. Breaking in young talent is a better use of his spot. 9. Get rid of Pierzwhatever and bring up Vasquez
I think the Sox will be surprised by the reaction of the fans if it goes with the young players for the remainder of this season. The team will at least be interesting. Can you think of anything more boring than watching Drew, Gomes, Victorino, AJ Pier and Peavy play out the string?
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 3, 2014 14:01:03 GMT -5
Tim Britton lays the blame for this season's downturn not so much on the shoulders of the team's rookies as he does on the shoulders of those whose decision making resulted in the team being overly reliant on the success of rookies:
www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20140702-young-players-struggles-disrupt-red-sox-game-plan.ece
"After winning the World Series last season, the Red Sox were the envy of baseball — not just because of that title, but because of how Boston achieved it. The Sox had spent wisely in free agency, not committing to any long-term deals. They had protected their youth. They were going to let Jacoby Ellsbury and Stephen Drew sign their expensive contracts elsewhere, because they could replace them with Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Xander Bogaerts cheaply.
That plan has obviously fallen flat, due in part to the struggles of Bradley and Bogaerts. More than halfway through the season, Bradley is hitting just a tick above .200, and Bogaerts has found himself ensconced in a 9-for-87 slump over the past month.
The struggles of Bradley and Bogaerts serve as a reminder that even this course, the one approved of by so many, isn’t without its pratfalls. The reason an organization stockpiles so many prospects is because of the relatively high and unpredictable rate of failure. And that’s something to keep in mind over the next month as the Red Sox go about trying to contend in 2014 and/or build another winner for 2015."
This is just ridiculous. 2014 wRC+2013 wRC+Look at those two links and tell me it's the rookies' fault. Or maybe pretty much everyone on the team is hitting way worse than last year with the single exception of Napoli.
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Post by elguapo on Jul 3, 2014 14:01:20 GMT -5
They were going to let Jacoby Ellsbury and Stephen Drew sign their expensive contracts elsewhere, because they could replace them with Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Xander Bogaerts cheaply. 2014 bWAR Ellsbury 1.8 Bradley 0.8 Bogaerts 0.5 Drew -0.5 Each pairing adds up to 1.3 bWAR so far this season. Serendipity!
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 3, 2014 14:40:41 GMT -5
Eh, I'm not overly impressed with Jacoby's season this year and the length and dollar amount are going to quickly turn into an albatross. I mean, McCann and Beltran have already reached that point. I'm confident in Bogaerts turning it around, and to a less degree Bradley. Still, I think it's foolhardy to just blame the rookies for the Red Sox ineptitude offensively. The mutant is still hitting above-average for SS (which the Red Sox botched by shifting him to 3B), Will Middlebrooks was a disappointment, but if you weren't going to give the job to a 25 year old who has had a taste ML success, when are you? Jackie has obviously been a bust, but Pedroia is playing like crap, Ortiz is good, but not great, Victorino is chilling somewhere in the Bermuda Triangle, Captain America is getting every opportunity to fail against RHP, Nava just started hitting, AJ is doing exactly what an old catcher who swings at every first pitch does, and some of the pitchers like Mujica, Peavy, Doubrount, Buccholz are just wasting roster space.
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Post by jdb on Jul 3, 2014 15:55:52 GMT -5
Everybody's favorite GM Jom Bowden has a piece on what Houson Street could get and brings up the possibility of Jesse Winker from the Reds. I think we have to dangle Koji given his age and I just don't see us building around him bc of it. Lester and Lackey I think are to valuable to the 2015 team, assuming we can resign Lester. If they aren't sold on that trade him at the deadline. Bowden mentions Balt, LAA and Detroit as Street destinations. insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post?id=9694
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 618
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Post by alnipper on Jul 3, 2014 16:02:50 GMT -5
We need to trade Herrera if we buy, sell, or stand pat. I had voted for wait and see, until the Cubs series. It's an obviously sell year. I would not be surprised if he have enough rookies in our lineup that we could make a little run. If we do sell, what kind of prospects do we want. I don't want any prospects that we will put on our 40 roster, unless they are a top 120 prospect. If they do decide to sell, I would trade the following depending on the package: Badenhop, Doubront, Peavy, Pierzynski, Herrera, Gomes, Brentz, and Middlebrooks. I would trade Drew, but nobody wants such an expensive player, who can not hit.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 3, 2014 17:15:15 GMT -5
Lester I think is going to get traded I think. We don't need to overpay for that type of contract when we're likely still going to be rebuilding next year and this system needs bats desperately. How about Joc Pederson?
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jul 3, 2014 17:32:01 GMT -5
I was firmly in the 'wait' camp before, but I think it is now time to start the 'sell' process. That doesn't mean rush to make moves or to trade everyone, but the conversations with other GMs should start to progress to a point where they know the Sox are sellers and the Sox know who the buyers are for each of their available players.
Step 1: Reengage Lester (which the reports say they have done). Make a hard push to extend him up to what the team is reasonably willing to pay. That doesn't mean you make your final offer now, but that max offer should come in the next couple of weeks. If that doesn't get the deal done, then I trade Lester and I think he brings a pretty significant prospect haul.
Outcome: Either an extended Lester or a significant prospect haul.
Step 2: Gauge the market for Peavy and Drew. In a couple weeks try to expand the market by offering to eat all or most of their salaries. If an offer comes in for a half decent prospect you take it. Otherwise, hold out until the trade deadline approaches and dump them for peanuts.
Outcome: No more Drew or Peavy on the team with possibly a mediocre prospect or two. Best case scenario is a prospect that would rank in the 20-30 range on this site IMO. Move Xander back to short. Call up Rubby. Give some combination of WMB, Cecchini, or Holt 3rd.
Step 3: Shop Doubront and see if there is a team that thinks they can fix him. If you can land a cost controlled asset or package of prospects then deal him. If not hold him and see if his stuff plays up in relief. He's a potentially strong asset if they hold him so I wouldn't move him unless the return was relatively legit.
Outcome: Hold or a fair to good prospect haul.
Step 4: Shop Lackey. If there is a team willing to part with a package centered around a top 50ish prospect for him then move him. If not hold him, because he is likely to be a strong asset for next year's team.
Outcome: Most likely hold - possible strong prospect return. Last year the White Sox got BA's 74th ranked prospect (Garcia) as well as upside guys in Montas and Rondon. I think Lackey could fetch more than that and I would strongly consider moving him if so.
Step 5: Offer Koji a one year extension. If he takes it, great. If not trade him. I think the haul for Uehara will be significant.
Other possibilities: If you catch a team dreaming on Buchholz, I would not rule out moving him. Same with Middlebrooks, but I wouldn't force it.
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Post by adlapierre on Jul 3, 2014 17:40:54 GMT -5
Positional depth is certainly an asset this team had last year and should strive to regain next year. Because a prospect doesn't receive 120 designation from BA or MLB doesn't mean that they could not have a significant role on the team under the right circumstances. By that logic Brock Holt would be performing his magic elsewhere.
Secondly, right-handed power is such a scare commodity throughout the league at the moment, I really don't expect Brentz or Middlebrooks to be packaged for a quarter on the dollar. I'd consider resigning Gomes as well as his numbers against left-handed pitching has been productive, but as a platoon player he was exposed when Farrell kept him in the lineup for prolonged stretches due to his "energy" and Nava's inability to hit a beach ball in April.
Ship out Pierzynski, Peavy, Drew and option Herrera. I'd rather see guys like Vazquez, Cecchini, and Betts get consistent at bats to see if they can adapt to major league pitching when the book is out on them in September rather than next April.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 3, 2014 18:05:52 GMT -5
Step 4: Shop Lackey. If there is a team willing to part with a package centered around a top 50ish prospect for him then move him. If not hold him, because he is likely to be a strong asset for next year's team. Only issue I had with your post is that I think Lackey's minor "threat" to not pitch for $500K was to prevent a trade. It reduces his trade value to that of a rental (with drama in the offseason). Which is still ok, but not nearly as good as it could have been.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 3, 2014 18:22:47 GMT -5
I was firmly in the 'wait' camp before, but I think it is now time to start the 'sell' process. That doesn't mean rush to make moves or to trade everyone, but the conversations with other GMs should start to progress to a point where they know the Sox are sellers and the Sox know who the buyers are for each of their available players. Some comments. 1. I would not trade Lackey now. It can wait until the offseason and, if Lester is traded, I would not be seeking to trade Lackey at all. The pitching staff will need a veteran presence. 2. I would trade/dump AJP by the trade deadline. A bag of balls would suffice; he's not bring back anything other than a C prospect (if the Red Sox eat his salary, which they will). I think a CVaz/Ross combo for the rest of the year would allow CVaz to get to know the current pitching staff and get some hands-on tutoring by Ross. 3. I would look to re-sign Miller to a mid-length deal (3/12?) and trade Uehara. I think Uehara is showing signs of age and a trade would max out his value. I'm worried he'll get hurt before the trade deadline and we'll lose our chance to get real value. 4. I would look to trade Gomes, once we hit the sale key. We're not re-signing him, but someone will want him on their bench for their playoff run.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 4, 2014 13:44:27 GMT -5
Jon Morosi ?@jonmorosi 17s Cardinals are inquiring with teams about starting pitching, source says. They have Wacha, Garcia, Kelly on DL. @foxsports1
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 4, 2014 15:08:26 GMT -5
Peter Gammons ?@pgammo 2m Farrell dilemma:if 1 Sox pos. player goes, Pedroia 3d in WAR@2B, Ortiz 3d @ DH, Napoli 3d @ 1B. Holt 5th @ 3B, but doesn't have qual. ABs
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 4, 2014 15:39:12 GMT -5
Peter Gammons ?@pgammo 5m Maybe if Sox took back $. ??
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Post by sammo420 on Jul 4, 2014 18:10:42 GMT -5
Peter Gammons ?@pgammo 2m Farrell dilemma:if 1 Sox pos. player goes, Pedroia 3d in WAR@2B, Ortiz 3d @ DH, Napoli 3d @ 1B. Holt 5th @ 3B, but doesn't have qual. ABs Anybody have a Gammo to English dictionary?
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 4, 2014 18:40:08 GMT -5
eee is talkin bout all-star roster ... if JF chooses one of his own.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 4, 2014 19:06:55 GMT -5
Holt isn't having quality AB's?
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