Buy, Sell, or Wait? (aka the Fire Sale Game Thread)

Do you really think Lester would fetch that much considering whoever gets him is renting him for a few month? A's gave much a lot but they get the pitcher for next year as well. There will be a number of teams wanting him, but how will they be willing to give unless they work out an agreement with him, which is doybtful

The issue with that is there has been a complete overhaul in the draft since then. When Sabathia was traded it allowed you to trade for a rental and still offer him arbitration while getting draft pick compensation. With the new system that isn't allowed.

So as opposed to the Sabathia trade where the Brewers were able to get a supplemental first round selection as well as what they thought would be a first rounder (wound up second if I recall), a team trading for Lester would get nothing if they can't re-sign him.

If the rules were still the same absolutely his value would be pretty damn high. That just doesn't exist anymore and it is why the major returns are with guys that have more than a half year of control left.

Possible landing spots for the catchers. By which I mean Ross, because AJP seems headed for the waiver wire.

First, when you factor in pitch framing, there are only a few contenders with a catcher as good as David Ross. And note that I didn't say backup catcher. Catcher, period. No wonder why Salty "lost his job" to Ross in the post-season.

This is projected ZiPS Rest of Season WAR, plus career pitch framing wins*, per 500 PA. (Yeah, I should have regressed the latter based on sample size, but most of these are big.)

7.3 Lucroy (4.3 + 3.3)
7.2 Posey (5.0 + 2.2)
6.8 McCann (3.2 + 3.7)
6.7 Martin (3.6 + 3.1)
6.3 Ross (1.5 + 4.9)
5.8 Y. Molina (4.5 + 1.4)
5.5 Gomes (3.8 + 1.8)

Now, Ross's projected WAR would be lower if he wasn't being platooned. But there are a number of contenders who could give Ross the occasional start versus RHP, especially with certain pitchers on the mound -- anyone who, like Lester, lives on the corners.

So, who can use Ross? The catch, of course, is that the team has to be savvy to pitch framing.

The Dodgers. Not only is their backup Drew Butera terrible (nothing at the plate, -1.2 framing), they have the weakest starter in A.J. Ellis (2.9 - 1.1). Ross would not only be a big upgrade at backup, they could have him start a bunch of postseason games. (Of course, Ellis is so mediocre they may be looking to get a full-time catcher, and I haven't given a thought as to who else might be out there.)

The Tigers. They're platooning Avila with Bryan Holaday (1.3 - 2.8), who has a reverse career split. They should be salivating at the thought of Ross.

The Mariners. They're 52% to make the playoffs, and John Buck is so bad (0.6 - 1.7) that Ross for two months might actually be worth a win. In fact, if any club seems like they might claim AJP (1.7 - 0.5) off of waivers, it's them.

The Angels. That they start Hank Conger (2.2 + 2.0) over Chris Iannetta (3.4 - 2.9) indicates they're on board with framing. They're platooning the switch-hitting Conger already, so Ross would slot right in.

Quite possibly The Braves. Christian Bethancourt has taken over from one of the worst pitch framers around, Gerald Laird (-3.6), and in a tiny and probably meaningless SS he's been just as bad. It's very conceivable that they'd rather have the veteran Ross for the post-season.

There are other contenders with bad backup catchers, but for various reasons they seem like somewhat less attractive landing spots.

Buster Posey and Yadier Molina are going to catch every post-season game, and the upgrade to Ross from Hector Sanchez (1.2 - 0.7) and Tony Cruz (1.4 - 0.9) respectively over the last two months projects to be half a win at most, and probably a bit less. Nick Hundley (2.1 - 1.4) has been raking since mid-June, so it's hard to see the Orioles being interested much. And Brett Hayes (0.0 - 3.3) is awful, but Salvador Perez plays as much as possible and it's hard to see the Royals upgrading backup catcher when they're 25% to make the playoffs.

*I used BP's framing data (runs saved per framing chance), and used a regression of chances versus PA to convert to wins at 9 runs per.

Excellent data. I do think that some teams view Lester as a "big-game" pitcher, and maybe he gets you a 30's ranked prospect as a result, which is consistent with your take on Bell and Piscotty. My dreams of Pederson or Taveras involve Lester and Koji together, with the other team trying to become the overnight favorite to win it all.

I can see that, but if two of those teams are hot on him and can be made to bid against each other a bit, you might be better off dealing him. I'm not sure how important the "mentoring" thing is when there are coaches, etc. who can do a similar job -- heck, Varitek's on the payroll, isn't he? Have him fly up from Georgia a couple of times.

I agree, I would never trade him for what people would guess he was worth, but I think there's a real chance that they can get a "wow, they got that for Ross? That's crazy" return (which is to say a prospect people have heard of, probably a low minors upside guy). And I think that if the Dodgers wanted him along with Koji et al for a significant return, that would have to be on the table as well.

It all depends on how many of the 4 or 5 teams that ought to lusting after him actually will be, because they're on board with pitch framing data. Pitch framing is a huge skill, and Jose Molina and Ross are to pitch-framing what Stanton and Cabrera are to right-handed power.

Some of those teams are way behind the times with advanced stats.

If Pederson is off the table in Price talks I can't imagine he would be available for Lester.

Specific speculation on a Peavy trade to STL is ongoing in the trade proposal forum FYI.

It probably has to do with the Dodgers saying "enough is enough" with going after every name available than anything else.  They seem to be drawing the line at giving up Pederson or Urias.  They cannot have $20 million players at every position.

22 year old RH RF with power & low walk rate - certainly sounds like a plausible target - acquired in the Freese-Bourjos trade.

www.minorleagueball.com/2013/11/22/5134398/angels-trade-peter-bourjos-randal-grichuk-cardinals-david-freese-fernando-salas

allen craig out of lineup

Jason Mastrodonato ?@jmastrodonato 1 min.
Ben Cherington on NESN: "If we can't close that gap, we have to be honest with ourselves."