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Your "Take" on the 2012 Season
steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 2, 2012 8:09:35 GMT -5
OK…….so you had bad year……you had a bad year! Good song, but not the end of the world as we know it!
Actually the Red Sox probably did themselves and us a big favor this year by sucking. I know that statement is heresy, but I will attempt in this post to answer why.
We had a flawed team that actually showed its ugly head last September (2011). We all felt we were the chosen ones and that we were on the cusp for another “run” of titles. We had the best first basemen in Adrian Gonzalez, the awesome Jacoby Ellsbury in center, a super leader and dirt-dog in one Dustin Pedroia, three studs at the top of our rotation, a budding super-star closer in Daniel Bard, Youk and Ortiz would certainly keep bringing it, unlimited cash, and a solid farm system.
And we were smarter than anyone and believed it!
What we were was an organization that wasn’t as hungry as we were in 2007. What we were was an organization that was showing age in some very important areas. What we were was an organization that spent money like a drunken sailor on shore duty after being at sea for a year. We lost are way and thought we could just spend millions on quick fixes and we would be back in the World Series.
We found out that just buying the most expensive bauble doesn’t guarantee anything. We found out we needed more emphasis on the things that got us our titles in 2004 and 2007…..namely pitching, depth, desire, and the will to do whatever it takes on the field. To say every day that no matter if we fall behind early in a game, we will find a way to get back into it and win. The teams we have put on the field lately NEVER seem to come back from a deficit. In seems once they get behind, they feel “cooked”. Yes Virginia, chemistry and teamwork are important.
OK…..now for what went right.
• We had a season that made us take a really hard look at the entire organization • We got rid of 3 really bad, bloated contracts that would have severely diminished us from doing anything to fix the current and future teams • Doubront, Tazawa, and Middlebrooks were forced into taking on significant roles and flourished • Our minor league system, in my opinion, had a banner year and produced some very exciting prospects who will start arriving next year and, especially, in 2014 • Our terrible year has given us an extremely high draft choice which hopefully will turn-into a solid major league player • Our system has really started to focus on pitching. Examples: the return from the “Punto” trade of Webster and De La Rosa, taking pitchers in 8 of the 1st 10 draft choices, and an ongoing accumulation of pitching prospects whenever a trade or waiver pick-up is made.
We may not compete for a play-off position next year, but we may. The amount of flexibility we now have and with some very exciting prospects moving ever closer to Boston makes me very encouraged. All in all, it was a good year!
Question: am I an idiot, overly optimistic, an alien (?), or a pragmatist? Please feel free to substitute a word of your choice (NO you can’t use that one!).
Now Mr. Cherington…..sign Papi to a (favorable) 2 year contract, fire Bobby Valentine and hire a new manager quickly, find out the parameters Ellsbury and Boras are looking for and react, and get by on just 3 hours of sleep a night.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 2, 2012 8:42:44 GMT -5
Although some would describe the season as an unmitigated disaster with plenty of blame to go around, I share your optimism.
Trading those contracts was strategic and fortunate (thank you new Dodger Mgt). The challenge is to use the new found windfall in a deliberative and constructive way. We don't need instant gratification with Hamilton and Greinke.
The farm system products are exciting and give us hope for the near future. I can't wait to see what DeLaRosa and Sands can give us.
Yes, explore an extension with Boras on Ells. But if the price is exhorbitant, move him in the off season if a good offer is presented. With his age, closing in on 30, and his lack of offense this season, options seem limited.
Overall, the organization is in a good situation. If it does its homework, it can come out of the 2013 draft with an outstanding prospect to go along with the developing prospects we already have.
The only disagreement I have with you is on Valentine. And I know I'm in the minority here. I believe we would have been almost as bad with Francona, Lamont or Sveum at the helm. Give him another year while we wait to see what the Jays do withm Farrell.
Already making my plans for ST and trips to Jet Blue.
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Post by elguapo on Oct 2, 2012 9:00:06 GMT -5
It was clearly a fragile team from the beginning, and hiring Valentine only accentuated the potential downside (disaster waiting to happen). Closing the cheque book and not adding Kuroda or even bidding on Yu Darvish, and instead rolling snake eyes with Bard, sealed their fate.
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Post by jmei on Oct 2, 2012 9:57:26 GMT -5
I don't completely buy this teamwork and chemistry bit. It's not like Gonzalez (.796 OPS) or Beckett (3.75 xFIP) have lit it up on LA. The problem with the 2012 Red Sox was that the highest-paid players on the team played poorly on the field (Gonzalez, Crawford, Beckett, Lackey, Lester-- even Pedroia was middling by his standards and Ellsbury was hurt/bad). The front office tied itself down to a core that was not performing well, which limited its flexibility to make other necessary moves. The starting pitching stunk and the offense was merely very good rather than elite.
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Post by bentossaurus on Oct 2, 2012 11:55:26 GMT -5
I think the season was brilliant. Next year I'll be able to still be awake when Boston's pick at the Draft comes around.
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Post by curll on Oct 2, 2012 12:46:42 GMT -5
This, really, is the best thing that could have happened to this franchise barring a World Series title.
The Red Sox organization now has a lot of free cash and a lot of motivation. The Theo Era is officially over and the ghost of 2011 has been flushed.
I thought we'd mimic TB this season and just miss the playoffs. But, grabbing a top 10 pick and clearing .25 billion is something magical.
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Post by GyIantosca on Oct 2, 2012 16:23:25 GMT -5
I hope Ben can be a real GM and make the choices a GM makes without much interference. That was unreal the whole manager process last year. You have to empower this guy.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 2, 2012 16:36:22 GMT -5
I hope Ben can be a real GM and make the choices a GM makes without much interference. That was unreal the whole manager process last year. You have to empower this guy. Agree! Ben needs to totally take control, if he already hasn't. There is A LOT of work that needs to be done, and he doesn't need to be looking over his shoulder and seeing if Uncle Larry, or whoever, approves.
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Post by gatortough on Oct 3, 2012 11:13:02 GMT -5
I think if you had to start a franchise this would be the blueprint you want: A team with a few decent to better pieces, a very strong farm system with an ensuing high draft pick, and a wide open check book. That describes the Red Sox right now.
I actually haven't been this excited about the Red Sox in a while. Part of why they're so exciting is that they have so many options of how to build the club back up. This, however, is a gift and a curse, since if they don't play their cards right, they can screw it up again, but they are also in a position where if they do make the right moves, they could be positioning themselves for a potential dynasty. All in all, I'm enthralled, where I really wasn't in the beginning of this year. I think Cherington is a smart guy. I agree, give him the ropes and let's see what he has in store.
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Post by stevedillard on Oct 3, 2012 11:29:12 GMT -5
Still waiting for a trade to show Ben can evaluate talent. We have lost talent in each of the trades he made.
2012 ended up clearing the slate to rebuild. I just have little faith in Ben being able to make those choices. And I also have fear that the new CBA's limitations on buying talent in the draft gets rid of the systematic advantage the Sox had up to now.
I hope Ben learned from the valuation mistakes of the past, and that new scouts will get a say.
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Post by dmaineah on Oct 3, 2012 11:40:15 GMT -5
I think this season was a complete disaster. I really hate that we are not in the playoffs and that the biggest topic being discussed isn't, who should be starting game 1 in the playoffs and, what the make up of the bench & bullpen should be.
That being said, I am looking forward to the off season. I am still excited about the players we have. I really don't think the Sox are far from competing for a playoff spot next year. The team needs a new Manager who can lead them. I'm fine with Salty/Lavarnway, Pedroia, Aviles, Middlebrooks, Ellsbury, Buchholz, Lester, Lackey, Doubront & Bailey to build around for next year. Management did a great job (got lucky) getting out from under some huge contracts and it will be fun to watch and debate the moves they make with this new found flexibility. I hope they sign Ross & Ortiz and get 2 big bats, 1 to play a Corner Outfield spot & 1 for 1B, and bat 3-4 in the order. It would also be nice to see one of De La Rosa or Webster claim the 5th spot in the rotation. Should be an interesting Spring, looking forward to it.
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Post by marrcus on Oct 3, 2012 22:55:11 GMT -5
A few key inj's to begin 2012, a few to end the season, and lot's of bad pitching throughout.
They are going to have to trade prospects for good vet talent. There just isn't FA quality available. There's no other way to put a respectable team on the field in '13. They are going to have to deal for it.
I heard Joe Castigs "The Green Fields of the Mind poem at 11:07. I've been thinking of the Tobin bridge since then. What a dreadful mess
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atzar
Veteran
Posts: 1,817
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Post by atzar on Oct 4, 2012 2:27:05 GMT -5
I applaud the Punto trade, but everything else was a mess.
I don't consider myself a fair-weather fan at all, but this year actually made me stop watching the major league team. Any interest I had in the Red Sox was completely limited to the performance of their prospects. I hope we use the blank slate to the fullest, but it's hard to call this season anything but a train wreck.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Oct 4, 2012 8:55:04 GMT -5
I'm a doom and gloomer as far as the immediate future of this team. 2013 and 2014. There just isn't anything there. But, if you want to look on the bright side. Beckett, Cook and Dice-K were 10-29 with a 5.90 ERA. That was in 50 starts. It's almost impossible for our 4th and 5th starters to be that bad next year. I'm saying 3 starters will be; Lester Buchholz and Doubront. Lackey and a reasonable starter signed should get you close to .500. If you sink a lot of your money into position players. As of this morning we need help at these positions; C, 1B, LF, RF AND DH. I'm actually ok going with Iglesias or Aviles until Xander takes the mantle after the All-Star break. At that point we will be out of it again. Jacoby can be dealt for prospects and JBJ takes over in CF.
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Post by honkbal on Oct 4, 2012 9:10:22 GMT -5
But, if you want to look on the bright side. Beckett, Cook and Dice-K were 10-29 with a 5.90 ERA. That was in 50 starts. That argument seems disturbingly familiar. That said, I can't help but agree (again). It really shouldn't take much to get this team back to .500 next year.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Oct 4, 2012 9:37:06 GMT -5
But, if you want to look on the bright side. Beckett, Cook and Dice-K were 10-29 with a 5.90 ERA. That was in 50 starts. That argument seems disturbingly familiar. That said, I can't help but agree (again). It really shouldn't take much to get this team back to .500 next year. I believe I said we couldn't possibly find a pitcher in 2012 that would be worse than Lackey was in 2011.Lackey was 12-12 with a 6.41 era that year. Admittedly, pitching with a bad elbow. Dice-k actually topped him. Can you believe it? 1-7 with a sparkling 8.28 era. Lester, Buchholz and Doubront were 31-32 with a 4.75 era. They will certainly do better won't they? Lackey remains a question mark. But, he'll get a shot to redeem himself. We're not going to get an ace. But, need a good starter.
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Post by welovewally on Oct 4, 2012 14:11:30 GMT -5
The season was a disaster. It started with the hiring of Bobby V. Lets hope 2013 starts off better
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Post by curiousle on Oct 4, 2012 23:13:43 GMT -5
3 hours sleep/night for Ben, might be generous! Clearly the flaws were not seen-which to me speaks to the culture of the organization. Cherrington is your GM-so let him do the job....but from the L.A. Deal (which the media presented as Lucchino being very involved in) to the firing of Valentine today-Where Uncle Larry was sitting there (was it just me or did Ben look uncomfortable?) I think the troubles continue...we might be able to build-but, although small, I think the fact that Lucchino was out front with Ben in that ESPN interview today tells a lot...I doubt Theo would have stood for that. And...what would have been so wrong in saying it wasn't good hire and that they made a mistake....admit it! We'll all feel better and maybe it will help change the culture (Confession is a great thing)
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soxin8
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Posts: 602
Member is Online
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Post by soxin8 on Oct 5, 2012 12:30:56 GMT -5
On ESPN last night, one host noted the Sox put 27 players on the DL which was the most in the last 25 years. Steve, I am also excited about the pitching with the additions of De La Rosa and Webster and heavy emphasis on pitching in the draft (although I am interested in whether Johnson and Light turn out better than Eflin and Smoral). Ben has to have a better off season but with 100 million to spend, he should be able to without trading any of the future away. I don't believe it is silly to be optimistic about next year.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 6, 2012 18:08:02 GMT -5
Short-term, 2012 was an abysmal, humiliating season with a team that was devoid of any life, joy, soul, and at the end, devoid of any talent. It was easily the most boring, unwatchable (very easy to tune out) team I've seen. This team had 2 walk-off wins,countless demoralizing walk-off defeats and that doesn't count the 0-7 record at home in extra inning games. They sucked out the festivity in just about every 100th anniversary related ceremony there was as seemingly they lost all the games that followed.
Easily the best moment was the Punto deal which the Dodgers were like the federal gov't bailing out a troubled bank.
Long-term, this probably had to happen. The team needs to be rebuilt, and thru youth, not John Lackey-type deals. They need to get back to smart short-term free agent acquisitions, astute deals and building a farm system thru a young core. They need to be more dilligent when they do sign a free agent - find a guy who WANTS to play in Boston (and likes the attention) as opposed to a guy who's willing to try because Boston offers top dollar (and would prefer not to deal with all the other stuff surrounding playing for the Sox).
They need to have a tuned in ownership, Lucchino needs to let baseball Ops do their job, and they need to pay attention to what Bill James has to say, and they need a manager who won't embarrass himself or the organization.
The Sox didn't lose 93 games because of Valentine, but he caused more BS in one year than Tito had in 8 years, and most of it needless, petty, and very stupid. The Sox ownership needs to stop pandering to their "marketing of their brand" and get back to their core business - building a winning baseball team and most of the time there are no short cuts in doing so - you need time, patience, intelligence, and some great drafting.
Maybe the disaster of 2012 will be the rock bottom that the declining Sox hit. (Champs of 07, ALCS Game 7 in 08, Swept in the ALDS in 09, missed the playoffs in 10, choked away the post-season in 11, and continued their Sept collapse into all of 12) .
All teams go thru this (even the 1990 Yankees went thru this)and the Sox have to ignore the fans that demand instant gratification (which includes me at times), and do what's best for the organization long-term and take the time to truly build something wonderful.
And please stop with this egotistical "This is Boston. The fans would never stand for a rebuilding year" nonsense.
Is getting your butt kicked on the way to 93 losses really a better thing?
Hopefully a huge lesson learned will be the long-term effect of 2012, along with a wonderful #7 pick in next year's draft, hopefully.
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Post by buffs4444 on Oct 6, 2012 19:06:04 GMT -5
2012 was an abomination, without question. This team doesn't need an extended rebuild, though, a few pieces added to the mix and this team will contend in 2013.
And rather than committing to a new philosophy, they'll build the same way they built the previous two championships. They'll sign FA's (Manny), trade prospects for elite players (Pedro, Schill) and sign short contract role players (Mueller, Okajima). They'll continue to develop their prospects into key contributors (Pedroia, Youk), take players on salary dumps (Lowell) who help acquire larger pieces (Beckett). They'll continue to pursue every possible avenue because they realize the reason 2012 sucked was due to poor execution of team composition rather than a flaw in the philosophy that produced 2 championships. Right plan, poor execution.
With the flexibility the team has in terms of the budget and roster entering the offseason, a few FA's mixed with a few trades and this team will be back in the hunt next year.....and have a damn good farm system to continue to build through going forward.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 6, 2012 21:15:28 GMT -5
2012 was an abomination, without question. This team doesn't need an extended rebuild, though, a few pieces added to the mix and this team will contend in 2013. This is where I disagree. I don't think the Sox are a few tweaks away from being contenders. I think that's what the thought was going into 2012. The Sox don't have a clue what they'll get from Buchholz and Lester. The Sox don't know that Bailey can cut it as a closer in the Boston market. And there are a ton of question marks in between their top 2 and their closer. I saw a stat that astounded me, but is true. The Sox .315 OBP was the lowest by a Sox team since 1968 - which of course, was the year of the pitcher in which all teams pretty much had dismals OBPs. This is because the entire lineup hacks. I don't think a tweak or two will fix this problem. The Sox have gotten away from patient at-bats and working the pitcher. And as it is, they have major question marks in LF, 1b, SS, and catcher offensively, while giving the benefit of the doubt to Ellsbury, and thinking that Ortiz and Ross can repeat their 2012 performances. My guess is that not everything will go as wrong as it did this past year, but to expect a few tweaks to jump the Sox up to 85 wins might be a lot to ask, and if so I think a lot of people are going to be disappointed, again. Can the Sox compete? Sure, but is it really likely? No, not really. They are inferior to most of the teams in the AL and in need of a pretty extensive overhaul. I think by 2014 or 2015 the Sox could be very well be contenders again, perhaps soon after could be contenders with World Series aspirations, but that's getting way ahead of us.
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Post by dcri on Oct 6, 2012 22:52:01 GMT -5
Before the season started, I thought the Sox were going to win the Division. The injuries crippled the team, but equally the terrible performances by the starting pitchers killed any prospect of the post-season. I've never read a good explanation for what happened to the pitching. Something went terribly wrong.
Lester should have had a career year. Instead he declined. Buchholz was much better in the second half, but still not consistently what the Sox need. As it turned out Doubront generally was the best, but far from great. The fact is, the Sox have no first rate starting pitchers. No team can win without them.
What happened to Dan Bard still is a mystery. One of the league's top set-up men not only failed as a starter, he couldn't relieve, either. The Bailey acquisition was a horrible error. I didn't think so at the time, but events proved that. He got hurt and missed most of the season. But when he finally did pitch, he wasn't all that impressive. I'm dubious that he will be the Sox closer two years from now. Meanwhile, Reddick will be slugging away for Oakland and throwing runners out on the base paths.
With Crawford and Gonzalez gone, Ellsbury soon to be gone, and Ortiz nearing the end, the only exceptional player the Sox will have in another year or so is Pedroia and he seems to be getting hurt too much. Middlebrooks may be another, but he's not there yet.
Great teams must be composed of great players. The Sox don't have them, and they aren't going to appear overnight. It is going to take time. There is some good potential in the minors, but not an overwhelming amount.
I think we're in a lean period, something younger Sox fans are not used to, but it is what us old guys grew up with. The management of this team is more competent than it was when I was young, but a lot of mistakes have been made, a lot has to be proven before we can say it is really good management.
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Post by WindyCityRedSox169 on Oct 6, 2012 23:06:03 GMT -5
2012 was an abomination, without question. This team doesn't need an extended rebuild, though, a few pieces added to the mix and this team will contend in 2013. And rather than committing to a new philosophy, they'll build the same way they built the previous two championships. They'll sign FA's (Manny), trade prospects for elite players (Pedro, Schill) and sign short contract role players (Mueller, Okajima). They'll continue to develop their prospects into key contributors (Pedroia, Youk), take players on salary dumps (Lowell) who help acquire larger pieces (Beckett). They'll continue to pursue every possible avenue because they realize the reason 2012 sucked was due to poor execution of team composition rather than a flaw in the philosophy that produced 2 championships. Right plan, poor execution. With the flexibility the team has in terms of the budget and roster entering the offseason, a few FA's mixed with a few trades and this team will be back in the hunt next year.....and have a damn good farm system to continue to build through going forward. Agree with the other couple of posts above mine. I don't think we are 'close' where we would be able to just tweak and add a few pieces which get us to contending. Cherington said as much a few days ago if I recall correctly and said they will try and be competitive but signaled 2013 could be a rebuilding year. The fact is the Sox don't have many significant pieces to compete for the playoffs with. They don't have heavy hitters outside of Ortiz which who knows how he will recover from his injuries this year. I know you have talked about Upton which would be a potential fit but I don't see the Sox having the resources to get it done unless they significantly overpay. Given the Rangers need for an outfielder with Hamilton potentially his way out, they can trump any offer that we put out there without much thinking. Maybe go after Garza but that doesn't fix the offensive holes on this team. With no real options in the free agent market you can't trade every single one of your assets just to put out a team that could be a bit more competitive. I don't see a way you field a team that competes for a World Series which is the hope every year. This is going to be a stretch of rough waters I imagine for a year or two. Just not an easy way too fix the magnitude of mistakes that were made and players not performing up to what management thought they would. Yes management has flexibility but you don't throw that away just to look like you are doing something.
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Post by mredsox89 on Oct 7, 2012 1:22:23 GMT -5
The season was a disaster. But they dumped guys that didn't seem to care much anymore, got some pieces for the future and had some guys step up that really do seem to care about being in Boston. A lot of people say this roster is a disaster, but the building blocks are still very good. You have to think that Lester/Buchholz will be better next season, and that the lineup doesn't get as decimated by injuries. Middlebrooks and Ortiz going down was the end for this offense
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