SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by moonstone2 on Jul 7, 2014 18:40:48 GMT -5
In the last calendar year (since 7/1/13), here are Wright's stats: 124.2 IP, 18.5% K (6.71 K/9), 8% BB (2.89 BB/9), 0.43 HR/9, 2.02 ERA, 3.43 FIP (.275 BABIP) That's pretty great, but it's still not a huge sample, and the peripherals (which are still pretty good, but no longer spectacular) don't match the shiny ERA. Knuckleballers are in the class of pitchers who can sustainably outperform their peripherals, but it's hard to filter out the noise in such a small sample. Plus, Wright gave up a ton of unearned runs during this stretch-- if you include those (some of which may be sustainable due to a knuckleballer's proclivity for WP/PBs), his RA9 rises to 2.67. Knuckleballers specifically give up weaker contact.and have lower BABIPs. The real problem is that you cannot project how a knuckleball will fare in the majors. Will hitters chase it in the majors or will they wait for a flatter one. You won't know until you see them in the majors and you can't tell that by looking at stats or even scouting.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,922
|
Post by ericmvan on Jul 9, 2014 23:04:26 GMT -5
The real problem is that you cannot project how a knuckleball will fare in the majors. Will hitters chase it in the majors or will they wait for a flatter one. You won't know until you see them in the majors and you can't tell that by looking at stats or even scouting. You just completely made that up, didn't you? It's unsupported by either logic or facts. The fact is that hitting a knuckleball is not a skill that MLB hitters have been selected for. There's every reason to believe that MLB hitters will have more or less the same numbers against well-thrown knuckleballs as AAA hitters. Remember, a well-thrown knuckleball breaks essentially in a more or less random direction. There's no "chasing" a well-thrown knuckler; it's simply not going to be where it was headed when you started your swing. Hitting a well-thrown knuckleball is essentially a matter of luck. If you see one that's headed in the zone, you swing where you think it's going to be, and if it's not well-thrown, it has no break and you hit it hard, and if it is well-thrown, it breaks randomly after you've started your swing, usually either enough to make your contact weak or enough to make you miss it entirely. As a hitter, you hope it breaks in the plane of your swing, so that you still barrell it, but just an inch or two towards the knob or towards the end of the bat rather than on the sweet spot. But that's rare. Now, MLB hitters will do significantly more damage to mistake knuckleballs than AAA hitters will. But this true for all mistake pitches -- hanging curves, flat sliders, fastballs down the middle, changeups up in the zone. Good curves, fastballs, changeups and sliders, though -- MLB hitters can handle those significantly better than AAA hitters can. So there is good reason to believe that the translation from AAA numbers to MLB numbers for a knuckleball pitcher is smaller than for a conventional pitcher. A knuckleballer loses less value making the jump, because no amount of experience improves the ability to hit his good pitches. Having remembered that, and given another stellar outing from Wright tonight, I'm now leaning towards wanting him in the rotation sooner than later. Let's see what we've got.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,961
|
Post by cdj on Jul 9, 2014 23:56:25 GMT -5
8 shutout tonight, I can't see him staying in Pawtucket long.
|
|
|
Post by Jonathan Singer on Jul 10, 2014 4:46:57 GMT -5
8 shutout tonight, I can't see him staying in Pawtucket long. I can. No room in boston for him in the rotation.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 10, 2014 5:40:41 GMT -5
Peter Gammons ?@pgammo 58m Knuckleballer Wright rides wind to win atmilb.com/1tpLq62 via @milb. Deserving of big league spot ADD: I am in no way a fan of knuckleballers but, it should be noted that the Sox have a catcher that is experienced catching Wright which could open the door a little wider.
|
|
|
Post by godot on Jul 10, 2014 7:08:07 GMT -5
8 shutout tonight, I can't see him staying in Pawtucket long. I can. No room in boston for him in the rotation. Maybe there is no room right now because of their commitment to Ruddy and Workman, but neither are slam dunks by any means. Peavy is almost out of there, and who knows who else may be moving. Although he uses a freak pitch that freaks many out, he has produced. If he has control of the butterfly, you may have something there.
|
|
|
Post by Jonathan Singer on Jul 10, 2014 7:47:03 GMT -5
Allen Webster would get the call before Steven Wright. While Rubby and Workman are not slam dunks their upside is much greater than Wrights as well as Allen Webster's.
|
|
|
Post by godot on Jul 10, 2014 8:21:50 GMT -5
Webster probably would get the call before Wright, but I am curious ,why are the upsides of the pitchers you note higher than Wright. Is it because they have the traditional mix of pitchers? Have they accomplished significantly more than Wright in the last year? You may be right, but are we discounting Wright because he is a knuckle ball pitcher. Who cares how you get a batter out. Bigots? Is Red Sox nation still in the backwaters. Signed his agent.
|
|
|
Post by Jonathan Singer on Jul 10, 2014 8:29:06 GMT -5
Wright will be 30 in August while the other 3 pitchers I mentioned are Workman (26 in august), Rubby (25) and Webster (24). All 3 have more upside because they have better stuff. The knuckleball is an unpredictable pitch and not something that is always reliable. I'll take the other 3 over Wright any day.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jul 10, 2014 8:34:18 GMT -5
Wright might not be first in the starting pitcher depth chart, but he's not far behind. He's behind De La Rosa (who looks to be in the majors for good), Workman (who comes back up when Peavy is traded), and Webster (who is certainly MLB-ready). But I think he's the next in line, ahead of Ranaudo and Barnes. If he continues to impress, there's an outside chance he could either gets some starts in Boston this year (if one or both of Lester/Lackey are traded, plus injuries) or even win a rotation spot next year (if Workman ends up in the bullpen (which I suspect he might), plus trades/injuries).
|
|
|
Post by godot on Jul 10, 2014 8:39:26 GMT -5
Wright will be 30 in August while the other 3 pitchers I mentioned are Workman (26 in august), Rubby (25) and Webster (24). All 3 have more upside because they have better stuff. The knuckleball is an unpredictable pitch and not something that is always reliable. I'll take the other 3 over Wright any day. Are you prejudiced about older people? Yeah, the knuckleball is an "unpredictable pitch", but some have made a decent career using. Some not of course. Seems it depends on the ability to control on a relatively consistent bases and the "quality" of the knuckle ball. so I am told. Your answer is poor and :Drather simple. What kind of knuckle ball does he have, and how well can he control it? Again, not saying your conclusion is wrong, but give better reasons than some generalizations. He probably is low on totem pole for call ups, but teams do make mistakes. I only suggest we do not dismiss him.
|
|
|
Post by Jonathan Singer on Jul 10, 2014 8:42:55 GMT -5
Wright might not be first in the starting pitcher depth chart, but he's not far behind. He's behind De La Rosa (who looks to be in the majors for good), Workman (who comes back up when Peavy is traded), and Webster (who is certainly MLB-ready). But I think he's the next in line, ahead of Ranaudo and Barnes. If he continues to impress, there's an outside chance he could either gets some starts in Boston this year (if one or both of Lester/Lackey are traded, plus injuries) or even win a rotation spot next year (if Workman ends up in the bullpen (which I suspect he might), plus trades/injuries). I agree with this especially with him on the 40 man and Ranaudo and Barnes not on it. However that doesn't mean Ranaudo wouldn't get the call before Wright because its totally possible that's how the organization looks at it.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 10, 2014 8:49:04 GMT -5
Wright might not be first in the starting pitcher depth chart, but he's not far behind. He's behind De La Rosa (who looks to be in the majors for good), Workman (who comes back up when Peavy is traded), and Webster (who is certainly MLB-ready). But I think he's the next in line, ahead of Ranaudo and Barnes. If he continues to impress, there's an outside chance he could either gets some starts in Boston this year (if one or both of Lester/Lackey are traded, plus injuries) or even win a rotation spot next year (if Workman ends up in the bullpen (which I suspect he might), plus trades/injuries). I agree with this especially with him on the 40 man and Ranaudo and Barnes not on it. However that doesn't mean Ranaudo wouldn't get the call before Wright because its totally possible that's how the organization looks at it. Ranaudo is on the 40 man. How will we ever know if Wright is the next RA Dickey?
|
|
|
Post by lonborgski on Jul 10, 2014 9:43:41 GMT -5
What's the harm is slotting Wright ahead of Workman and Webster for a rotation spot until, say, September 1st?
Or, another way of looking at the question, is Workman's ceiling as a starter much higher than Wright's?
|
|
|
Post by tonyc on Jul 10, 2014 16:41:41 GMT -5
While the knuckleball oftentimes is not as reliable as a traditional pitchers repertoire, there are of course some hall of fame exceptions whom I saw pitch- Hoyt Wilhelm, Phil Niekro, as well as solid pitchers- Wilbur Wood, Joe Niekro, Charlie Hough and our own Tim Wakefield. As you all know many of them pitched into their 40's (Hoyt until 49), so forget age. Wright showed a nice progression from the time he gave up pitching traditionally, jumping multiple levels, improving to a very fine AA year in 2012, an okay AAA year last year and is showing continued improvement this year. I would love to know what we have here and would hate to give someone else a bargain. Remember, with his traditional background, he can still add in a better fastball than most of the above. I recall Wakefield started really taking off when he developed his curve and was able to baffle people with a three pitch mix. Good thread here, and both his ceiling and floor is hard to quantify, let's keep an open mind.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jul 10, 2014 18:32:34 GMT -5
Who knows what we have in Wright? The point is why not find out now. Throw him into the mix at the big league level after trading Doubront or Peavey. ADD VALUE potentially to the franchise in a lost year.
He may do well and be the next Wakefield for all we know. He may be worth a top 100 prospect at this point to some team desperately needing a starter who can win half his games. If he has some value now is a good time to find out how much.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Jul 10, 2014 18:36:21 GMT -5
Wright will be 30 in August while the other 3 pitchers I mentioned are Workman (26 in august), Rubby (25) and Webster (24). All 3 have more upside because they have better stuff. The knuckleball is an unpredictable pitch and not something that is always reliable. I'll take the other 3 over Wright any day. OK, so you hate knuckleballers. That's fine. But it's hardly a good basis for a rational discussion.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,922
|
Post by ericmvan on Jul 10, 2014 19:22:31 GMT -5
Wright will be 30 in August while the other 3 pitchers I mentioned are Workman (26 in august), Rubby (25) and Webster (24). Age is completely meaningless here. Age matters for two reasons. First, it's a proxy for experience. Second, it tells you how far a player is along in his physical development, and how many years it will be before he reaches a point where he starts to decline physically, and eventually has to stop. Experience: Wright has essentially been pitching for four years. You can make a better argument that he should be regarded like a kid just out of high school than as a 30-year-old. Every one of the kids you mention has been throwing most of his pitches longer than Wright has been throwing the knuckler. Physical longevity: a 30-year old knuckleballer of comparable talent to the kids you mention is not any closer to his decline phase, and in fact may be further from it. Workman's upside is absolutely known -- back-end rotation starter. Wright's upside, given his domination of AAA hitters and the way that projects to MLB, is basically 10 years of contending for the CY. It's certainly on a par with Rubby and Webster, at the least. Wright's knuckleball is pretty clearly the best pitch any of them has, and it's not remotely close. He can throw it almost exclusively and have more success than any of the three do, mixing their pitches. And as I've pointed out, that success translates better to MLB than that of a traditional pitch does. This post, which I think is the least rational I've ever seen from a mod here, is capped off with a sentence almost entirely devoid of meaning. All pitchers are to some degree unpredictable and somewhat unreliable. If what you mean is that a knuckleballer of a given quality is more likely to suffer a decline from one year to the next than a conventional pitcher of equal quality, there's no evidence of that whatsoever. If what you mean is that a knuckleballer of a given quality is more unpredictable game to game than a conventional pitcher of the same overall quality, if that were so, that would be a strength. Given two pitchers with equal ERA's, the one with the greater variance is more valuable; the guy who allows 3 ER in 6 IP, game after game, isn't nearly as valuable as the guy who typically allows 1 or 2 but gets his head handed to him once every month or two and ends up with the same stat line. (You can demonstrate this with the Pythagorean formula: the error is partially explained by the variance in RA.)
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,922
|
Post by ericmvan on Jul 10, 2014 19:36:48 GMT -5
Remember, a well-thrown knuckleball breaks essentially in a more or less random direction. There's no "chasing" a well-thrown knuckler; it's simply not going to be where it was headed when you started your swing. Hitting a well-thrown knuckleball is essentially a matter of luck. If you see one that's headed in the zone, you swing where you think it's going to be, and if it's not well-thrown, it has no break and you hit it hard, and if it is well-thrown, it breaks randomly after you've started your swing, usually either enough to make your contact weak or enough to make you miss it entirely. As a hitter, you hope it breaks in the plane of your swing, so that you still barrell it, but just an inch or two towards the knob or towards the end of the bat rather than on the sweet spot. But that's rare. I was just re-reading this and I realized there's a point to be made about the knuckleball that some people may be forgetting, or were unaware of to begin with. We use the word "break" to describe a slider or curve, just as I used it to describe the knuckler. But the "break" on every other pitch is an optical illusion; they actually travel in smooth arcs. The knuckleball actually breaks. It does not travel on a smooth arc because it does not have consistent airflow around it. The ball rotates so slowly that sudden changes in the airflow over the seams causes it to actually change direction slightly and unpredictably. So hitting it is completely different than hitting any other pitch. The greatest theoretical hitting savant in the world, the guy with 20/5 vision who can read the spin of any conventional pitch the moment it leaves the pitcher's hand and adjust his swing in response, would have no more success against a great knuckleball (the ideal one has 1/4 rotation on the way to the plate, but anything less than a full rotation is excellent, and one plus a fraction works fine) than an ordinary hitter. He would have to either be psychic, or a supercomputer programmed with a knuckleball simulation.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 10, 2014 22:46:56 GMT -5
Wright's upside, given his domination of AAA hitters and the way that projects to MLB, is basically 10 years of contending for the CY. Anyone need a sig? :-P
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Mar 22, 2015 21:55:25 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by moonstone2 on Mar 23, 2015 6:53:33 GMT -5
This looks like something that can be detected though not persicely measured because of overlapping factors.
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on Mar 23, 2015 10:36:23 GMT -5
I don't expect they'll give Wright a shot unless someone struggles for an extended period or there is an injury. I suppose you can expect one or the other, but I wouldn't like to predict it. At the moment, the injury scares seem to have abated (Miley still hasn't thrown again though) and you can't read anything in to the pitching results yet.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 23, 2015 16:12:46 GMT -5
This looks like something that can be detected though not persicely measured because of overlapping factors. Well, it's the ProJo, not FanGraphs - pretty sure he was just trying for back-of-the-envelope, and that it's not really the spot for a deep dive into the data. It's interesting, at least.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,754
Member is Online
|
Post by nomar on Mar 23, 2015 16:37:42 GMT -5
When I first clicked page 2 of this thread, I was like "oh god, Godots back". Then I realized it's just an old thread. Close call.
|
|
|