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ericmvan
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Posts: 8,911
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 29, 2015 2:28:38 GMT -5
Eric, your problem is you are dismissing the middle ground of the pitch. You seem to be drawing the conclusion that a knuckler is either thrown perfectly or is a hanger. You do admit there is middle ground but gloss it over and don't take it into account for any of your analysis and this is where you are losing people. There is quite a bit of middle ground and knuckle ballers get hit just like anyone else not executing or not being "as good" as they are when perfect. Very good point, in that I haven't made it clear enough why a midddle ground knuckler is completely different from a middle-ground of any other pitch. Let me do that now. (In all of the following analysis, I'm omitting effective velocity (velocity plus obstructive deception). More effective velocity simply reduces the time the hitter has to make the neurological assessment I'm describing.) There are two types of ordinary pitches: high rotation pitches (FB, curve) and deceptive pitches (cutter, slider, change). Let's look at each. Fastballs and curves are easy for MLB hitters to identify. If they can read the spin precisely (unconsciously, of course, due to thousands of reps in practice and games), their brains can judge the arc of the ball and hit it squarely, assuming they have sufficient hand-eye coordination. So the average pitcher has three weapons: 1) Throw the pitch when the hitter is not expecting it, slowing his reaction time so much that, at the point in time where the batter has to start the neurobiological swing process (hereafter "swing," even though there may be no visible movement for some milliseconds), the brain hasn't had time to accurately compute the spin. In fact, sometimes the pitch is so unexpected that by the time the batter even recognizes what pitch it is, it's too late to start the swing (freezing the batter). 2) Throw the pitch in an unexpected place -- usually, changing the eye level, although working in and out also works. This slows reaction time in precisely the same way. 3) Throw the pitch to a spot in the strike zone where the hitter has inherently weaker hand-eye coordination due to his swing mechanics, which is to say, to the hitter's cold zone. Of course, if the hitter is expecting that, he gains an advantage in reaction time that might offset the inferior contact ability. 3b) Throw the pitch at or just above the knees, where almost all MLB hitters have weaker hand-eye coordination. This is easier for sinkerball pitchers, whose two-seam fastballs rise much less relative to gravity that than a four-seamer does. The more backspin on a pitch, the more rise relative to gravity, and the more difficult it is to control the pitch precisely in the vertical plane, since where the ball goes is a function of where it was aimed plus its rise. (I'm pretty sure it's true that four-seamers have not just higher rotation but more variable rotation; standard deviation tends to vary along with the mean.) (I think it's possible that some pitchers who throw both a two- and four-seamer benefit from some mild deception, as hitters mistake the spin of one for the other, even though their spin axes are different. But I'm not sure.) Some pitchers have a fourth one: 4) Throw the ball with so much damn spin that it becomes inherently harder to read. It's easy for the brain of a great hitter to see a curve that's going to rotate 7 times on its way to the plate, and measure that exactly. If it's rotating twice that fast, the measurement is likely to be off a bit. The higher-rotating pitch, of course, has a more pronounced arc ("bigger break" on a curve, more "hop" or "late life" on a FB -- all of these, of course, are optical illusions), and such pitches are tougher to hit because the spin was too tough to read precisely enough. In the case of a very high-rotation fastball, it appears as if the brain characteristically underestimates the spin, which can lead to weak contact and hence a BABIP skill. Note that in order to have a BABIP skill, you need a pitch that all hitters systematically misread the spin of slightly, and hence make weak contact on. So here's three curves: Perfect curve, very high rotation: only the best hitters can read the spin. But I think we've all seen elite hitters crush a great curve ball that was in the exact spot where they were looking for it. Lesser hitters have no such chance, Middle-ground curveball: the spin is either read and the arc judged correctly or it's misread to some degree, depending on the skill of the hitter in combination with the above factors. Hanging curveball: the spin is so low that it's very easy for the brain to calculate the precise (and mild arc), and the pitch is hit hard very often (although the above factors, and the hitter's skill, still enter into it). I'll do the slider next ...
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 29, 2015 7:36:23 GMT -5
Hit me up in a week when you get to the knuckleball... Jokes just jokes
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 29, 2015 8:22:39 GMT -5
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Post by iakovos11 on Mar 29, 2015 8:45:32 GMT -5
I see you have a lot to say this morning, jimed.
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 618
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Post by alnipper on Mar 29, 2015 11:16:14 GMT -5
It was a great trade for us. I think Wright is under ranked and under appreciated. He is no ace, but has more tools than Wakefield. He just needs more control like any knuckleballer.
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Post by iakovos11 on Mar 29, 2015 13:12:44 GMT -5
Looking at today, I will stand by my statement earlier in this thread. Give me Brian Johnson before Wright if we are looking for starter #6. Did you see Johnson today? Still think he's a better option than Wright? I like Johnson, but he needs more seasoning. He's only had a couple starts in AAA.
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Post by johnmark on Mar 29, 2015 15:51:01 GMT -5
Looking at today, I will stand by my statement earlier in this thread. Give me Brian Johnson before Wright if we are looking for starter #6. Did you see Johnson today? Still think he's a better option than Wright? I like Johnson, but he needs more seasoning. He's only had a couple starts in AAA. Johnson got through the 4th with 2 runs. A little out of rhythm, but not expected given the lack of experience. I still believe Brian has more potential as a SP both now and in the future. So, yes...I do prefer him as an option over Wright, although I also think he would benefit from time in AAA.
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Post by sarasoxer on Mar 29, 2015 18:06:21 GMT -5
Did you see Johnson today? Still think he's a better option than Wright? I like Johnson, but he needs more seasoning. He's only had a couple starts in AAA. Johnson got through the 4th with 2 runs. A little out of rhythm, but not expected given the lack of experience. I still believe Brian has more potential as a SP both now and in the future. So, yes...I do prefer him as an option over Wright, although I also think he would benefit from time in AAA. The jury is out on Wright. But, in contrast to another poster above, I think that he has better control than Wakefield. Yesterday the winds no doubt had a negative effect on accuracy. What seems common between the two is when they lose the feeling, they lose it boom. I view Wright as a potential 5th starter and Johnson perhaps a 4. I like Johnson better than Owens despite Owens' prototype stature. Johnson seems to have a tighter curve and better overall command. Today I thought that he was really squeezed but was very consistently around the plate. He will be a nibbler. Owens looks the part but I suspect that MLB hitters will ignore the FB and tee off on his, by far best pitch, the change....as happened (from memory) with Clay Buchholz when he first arrived. Owens may have more upside and someday surpass Johnson but seems farther away at this point. I think that Rodriguez is the true prize here and, unless traded, will be a member of next year's rotation.
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Post by johnmark on Apr 1, 2015 22:04:51 GMT -5
Looking at today, I will stand by my statement earlier in this thread. Give me Brian Johnson before Wright if we are looking for starter #6. Did you see Johnson today? Still think he's a better option than Wright? I like Johnson, but he needs more seasoning. He's only had a couple starts in AAA. I didn't change my mind last week and certainly today didn't change it either.
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Post by mgoetze on May 31, 2015 8:29:20 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 22, 2015 0:11:27 GMT -5
I think it's Wright's -.2 WAR. Had he been able to pitch more innings he could have increased that. FIP and hence fWAR is meaningless for knuckleball pitchers. He was jerked around in and out of the rotation and put up 1.6 or 1.7 bWAR when pro-rated to Miley's innings. The post-knuckleball effect is worth about 1.0 WAR (3 innings per each of his starts, 9 innings for about 20 of them, more if you try to use the effect by avoiding having him pitch the last game of the series). Miley had 2.5 bWAR, and can be counted to do it again. So Wright doesn't have to gain anything by being used more consistently to be a more valuable SP than Miley; he just has to pitch like he has for the past two seasons. But evidence suggests he will very likely benefit. He made 8 starts last year on regular rest last year and had a 3.23 ERA and 3.99 RA9 in 47.1 IP. He had 6 relief appearances on less than 5 days rest and had a 4.29 ERA and 4.91 RA9 in 14.2 IP. That difference may or may not be random, but we don't actually need to consider it for this argument; if any of it is real, it's gravy. Because he also pitched twice after a long layoff, both after being recalled from Pawtucket and sitting, and he had a 7.59 ERA and RA9 in 10.2 IP. In other words, those were the two games where he was hammered. Does anyone doubt the fact that going a week without pitching might mess up the knuckleball? Do folks really think it's random that he had a 3.48 ERA and 4.21 RA9 in all but 2 of his games, but 7.59 when he hadn't pitched for a week? Miley's RA9 was 4.55, and Wright's was 4.71. Even if most of that split is random, Wright is matching Miley even without the knuckleball hangover (and even if all of his unearned runs were actually his fault rather than bad luck). Summing it up: everything included, Wright's run prevention was nearly as good as Miley's (the bigger gap in WAR is, I think, due to a chunk of Wright's innings being in lower leverage, but I'll look at it more closely later, I hope). But there's 1) the post-knuckleball effect, 2) the distortion of Wright's record by two games with a long layoff, 3) the fact that we're crediting Miley with only allowing 2 UER runs all year when some of that was almost certainly luck, while charging Wright with all of his UER, ditto, and 4) the possibility that Wright actually pitches better as a starter than as a reliever. It's just hard to see how the existing evidence says that Miley is the more valuable starting pitcher. (It's worth noting that not all knuckle-ballers have shown the hangover effect; Wakefield and Dickey have, and Wright has had a huge one in the minors. Maybe the Sox have studied it more deeply and don't think he'll have one. But like I say, it might be gravy.) We'll have to see but I've seen nothing from Mr. Wright that indicates he isn't another decent minor league knuckleball pitcher that fails at the major league level. This millennium in spite a long list of the next great knuckleballers, we've had one and only one emerge, Dickey. Make whatever excuses you wish but bottom line is that he has yet to perform at the major league level and the clock is ticking. I also seem to recall several studies of the post knuckleball effect over Wake's career that indicated the opposite, that there's no reason to believe it exists. You should study the effect of the sum of all the league's #5's, I'll be willing to bet that the following games or two the opponents production decreased significantly. A better guide would be to compare the innings of the pitchers that relieved him that day compared to the results of those same pitchers when they relieved other non-Knuckle starters. I'm guessing he's more likely to be DFA'd prior to the spring than make either the rotation or the pen. If that happened I'd think he'd likely clear waivers.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 22, 2015 1:17:03 GMT -5
FIP and hence fWAR is meaningless for knuckleball pitchers. He was jerked around in and out of the rotation and put up 1.6 or 1.7 bWAR when pro-rated to Miley's innings. The post-knuckleball effect is worth about 1.0 WAR (3 innings per each of his starts, 9 innings for about 20 of them, more if you try to use the effect by avoiding having him pitch the last game of the series). Miley had 2.5 bWAR, and can be counted to do it again. So Wright doesn't have to gain anything by being used more consistently to be a more valuable SP than Miley; he just has to pitch like he has for the past two seasons. But evidence suggests he will very likely benefit. He made 8 starts last year on regular rest last year and had a 3.23 ERA and 3.99 RA9 in 47.1 IP. He had 6 relief appearances on less than 5 days rest and had a 4.29 ERA and 4.91 RA9 in 14.2 IP. That difference may or may not be random, but we don't actually need to consider it for this argument; if any of it is real, it's gravy. Because he also pitched twice after a long layoff, both after being recalled from Pawtucket and sitting, and he had a 7.59 ERA and RA9 in 10.2 IP. In other words, those were the two games where he was hammered. Does anyone doubt the fact that going a week without pitching might mess up the knuckleball? Do folks really think it's random that he had a 3.48 ERA and 4.21 RA9 in all but 2 of his games, but 7.59 when he hadn't pitched for a week? Miley's RA9 was 4.55, and Wright's was 4.71. Even if most of that split is random, Wright is matching Miley even without the knuckleball hangover (and even if all of his unearned runs were actually his fault rather than bad luck). Summing it up: everything included, Wright's run prevention was nearly as good as Miley's (the bigger gap in WAR is, I think, due to a chunk of Wright's innings being in lower leverage, but I'll look at it more closely later, I hope). But there's 1) the post-knuckleball effect, 2) the distortion of Wright's record by two games with a long layoff, 3) the fact that we're crediting Miley with only allowing 2 UER runs all year when some of that was almost certainly luck, while charging Wright with all of his UER, ditto, and 4) the possibility that Wright actually pitches better as a starter than as a reliever. It's just hard to see how the existing evidence says that Miley is the more valuable starting pitcher. (It's worth noting that not all knuckle-ballers have shown the hangover effect; Wakefield and Dickey have, and Wright has had a huge one in the minors. Maybe the Sox have studied it more deeply and don't think he'll have one. But like I say, it might be gravy.) We'll have to see but I've seen nothing from Mr. Wright that indicates he isn't another decent minor league knuckleball pitcher that fails at the major league level. This millennium in spite a long list of the next great knuckleballers, we've had one and only one emerge, Dickey. Make whatever excuses you wish but bottom line is that he has yet to perform at the major league level and the clock is ticking. I also seem to recall several studies of the post knuckleball effect over Wake's career that indicated the opposite, that there's no reason to believe it exists. You should study the effect of the sum of all the league's #5's, I'll be willing to bet that the following games or two the opponents production decreased significantly. A better guide would be to compare the innings of the pitchers that relieved him that day compared to the results of those same pitchers when they relieved other non-Knuckle starters. I'm guessing he's more likely to be DFA'd prior to the spring than make either the rotation or the pen. If that happened I'd think he'd likely clear waivers. Which reality are you talking about? Certainly not ours. In Mid-May we needed him for 4 starts, and he put up a 3.91 ERA (4.30 if you score a passed ball as a WP) while holding opponents to .225 / .250 / .404. In his second stint in the rotation, he was hit hard in his first recall start, as previously noted. He then put up a 2.59 ERA (3.30 scoring PB as WP) in four starts while holding batters to .217 / .301 / .348. That's really good pitching. Period. Even if you include the start on a week's rest, he held opponent hitters to a .291 OBP and .401 SA. The league had .318 and .412. Since when does better than average constitute failure? At the time he got concussed, he was becoming a genuine breakout story. It's amazing how the Wright skeptics have erased that from their memory.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 22, 2015 2:14:34 GMT -5
And you view him as a better pitcher than Miley who produced 190 innings of 96 FIP- because he had 4 good starts in the middle of a year in which he added no wins to the team compared to a replacement level pitcher ?
If he was cut in spring by the Sox, do you think it likely that another GM would put him on their 25 man ?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 22, 2015 2:39:22 GMT -5
In those 4 starts, @sea, LAA, @tex, MIN, He pitched 23 innings gave up 20 hits, 12 runs (10 earned) 12K's 3BB.
That's what you are basing your observations on ?? Did you happen to notice the .240 BABIP as a starter ?
As I said, I have yet to see where he has done anything to make me want to pencil him into the 5th slot and clearly not over Miley. Our mileage is definitely going to differ here. I could buy into a case for Hill but I just don't see one for Wright.
ADD: Miley produced 25% more wins above replacement this year than Dickey.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,962
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Post by jimoh on Nov 22, 2015 7:31:20 GMT -5
I think it's Wright's -.2 WAR. Had he been able to pitch more innings he could have increased that. FIP and hence fWAR is meaningless for knuckleball pitchers. He was jerked around in and out of the rotation and put up 1.6 or 1.7 bWAR when pro-rated to Miley's innings. The post-knuckleball effect is worth about 1.0 WAR (3 innings per each of his starts, 9 innings for about 20 of them, more if you try to use the effect by avoiding having him pitch the last game of the series). Miley had 2.5 bWAR, and can be counted to do it again. So Wright doesn't have to gain anything by being used more consistently to be a more valuable SP than Miley; he just has to pitch like he has for the past two seasons. [..] Of course it's a fair move to pro-rate Wright to Miley's innings. Very often guys in their early 30s suddenly pitch 200 innings despite never going more than about 150 before.
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Post by blizzards39 on Nov 22, 2015 10:02:59 GMT -5
FIP and hence fWAR is meaningless for knuckleball pitchers. He was jerked around in and out of the rotation and put up 1.6 or 1.7 bWAR when pro-rated to Miley's innings. The post-knuckleball effect is worth about 1.0 WAR (3 innings per each of his starts, 9 innings for about 20 of them, more if you try to use the effect by avoiding having him pitch the last game of the series). Miley had 2.5 bWAR, and can be counted to do it again. So Wright doesn't have to gain anything by being used more consistently to be a more valuable SP than Miley; he just has to pitch like he has for the past two seasons. [..] Of course it's a fair move to pro-rate Wright to Miley's innings. Very often guys in their early 30s suddenly pitch 200 innings despite never going more than about 150 before. Wright will never be the pitcher Miley is. Can't believe the lack of credit Wade Miley gets around here. It's almost unbelievable. Note saying wright won't have a breakout season, buts he's more than likely a AAAA type pitcher. I'd go out and say the chances of him lasting the season (maybe even starting the season) on this roster is 50% at best.
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Post by jmei on Nov 22, 2015 10:20:44 GMT -5
I'll note that since he converted to the knuckleball in 2011, Steven Wright has a .290 BABIP in 582.2 minor league IP. He probably has a true-talent BABIP skill, but one limited in magnitude.
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Post by jmei on Nov 22, 2015 10:34:35 GMT -5
I'll also add that if you think Wright and Kelly are better than Miley's 2.5 bWAR, there doesn't seem to be much reason to sign or trade for another starting pitcher. In such a scenario, they already have four 2.5+ WAR starters, plus Buchholz as a wild card and Owens/Johnson in AAA. That'd be one of the five or so best rotations in the league, and your cash would likely be better spent elsewhere (e.g., replacing Castillo in the outfield).
Of course, I think there's really no way you could reasonably argue that Wright and Kelly are better than Miley. The argument Eric has made for both Wright and Kelly being better than Miley relies on cherrypicking only their best starts based on reasons I'm skeptical about and then extrapolating out that performance over the course of a whole season. It's typical small sample size theater.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 22, 2015 11:12:31 GMT -5
Of course, I think there's really no way you could reasonably argue that Wright and Kelly are better than Miley. The argument Eric has made for both Wright and Kelly being better than Miley relies on cherrypicking only their best starts based on reasons I'm skeptical about and then extrapolating out that performance over the course of a whole season. It's typical small sample size theater. By the Eric Van methodology I'm pretty sure I could show conclusively that David Murphy is going to hit 173 home runs next season. Or at least I could have before the World Series.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 22, 2015 11:18:22 GMT -5
I'll note that since he converted to the knuckleball in 2011, Steven Wright has a .290 BABIP in 582.2 minor league IP. He probably has a true-talent BABIP skill, but one limited in magnitude. That may be true but his three season SSS limited innings major's BABIPs are .308, .328 & .252. There's pretty much no way he's going to sustain that .252. If you add in a reasonable .040 to his 2015 numbers and stretch him out to Miley's innings you are still going to end up with a sub-replacement level pitcher. Of his 9 starts, he went longer than 6.1 innings only twice (5.2 median), his two best games. Those games were followed by a 5 inning clunker at a time when he should have been rotation acclimated.
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Post by deepjohn on Nov 22, 2015 11:44:57 GMT -5
illegitimi non carborundum.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 22, 2015 11:56:00 GMT -5
If Steven Wright makes regular starts for us next year it means something has went extremely poorly
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ericmvan
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Posts: 8,911
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Post by ericmvan on May 16, 2016 13:32:36 GMT -5
Wright is still not in my zone of trust yet (I am increasingly confident that he is a major-league-caliber starter, but it's still only been six really good starts and I'm skeptical that he's more than a mid-/back-end rotation option). It's 15 starts (*) over two+ seasons with the equivalent of a 3.27 ERA, adding 1.9 runs for good inherited runner support and using a league average percentage of UER. That's half a season of average or better than average #2 starter pitching. Plus there's the argument I made for about two years that his AAA performance projected him as a better-than-average MLB pitcher. I'm not convinced he's actually a #2 either, but I'm more convinced than ever that he is above MLB average, a guy you'd be delighted to send out as the #4 starter in a playoff series. Whether he's good enough to start the 2nd or 3rd game is still unclear. *Excluding his early 2013 emergency start, and his start last year on very long rest -- which I argued was desirable last winter, and which in fact yielded a hugely better projection for this year.
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Post by jmei on May 16, 2016 13:56:34 GMT -5
Wright is still not in my zone of trust yet (I am increasingly confident that he is a major-league-caliber starter, but it's still only been six really good starts and I'm skeptical that he's more than a mid-/back-end rotation option). It's 15 starts (*) over two+ seasons with the equivalent of a 3.27 ERA, adding 1.9 runs for good inherited runner support and using a league average percentage of UER. That's half a season of average or better than average #2 starter pitching. Plus there's the argument I made for about two years that his AAA performance projected him as a better-than-average MLB pitcher. I'm not convinced he's actually a #2 either, but I'm more convinced than ever that he is above MLB average, a guy you'd be delighted to send out as the #4 starter in a playoff series. Whether he's good enough to start the 2nd or 3rd game is still unclear. *Excluding his early 2013 emergency start, and his start last year on very long rest -- which I argued was desirable last winter, and which in fact yielded a hugely better projection for this year. ...and if you don't intentionally omit his two worst starts, over the last two years, he has a 4.44 SIERA (which should capture at least some of his ability to generate weak batted balls) in 118.1 IP. We'll see, but, at the very least, there's significant uncertainty in his profile, and I'm not terribly content if he's their third best starting pitcher.
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Post by mgoetze on May 16, 2016 15:38:22 GMT -5
he has a 4.44 SIERA (which should capture at least some of his ability to generate weak batted balls) Eh... how so? I'm a huge fan of SIERA for evaluating conventional pitchers but there's no way it's going to do Wright justice. Wright has the batted-ball profile that SIERA likes least: almost no IFFB and a fairly even mix of FB to GB. However, in his career, Wright has allowed a .135 AVG and .365 SLG on fly balls, which is drastically below normal and completely unaccounted for by SIERA (for comparison: Price .185/.513, Porcello .227/.598, Buchholz .237/.602, Kelly .184/.494). Furthermore, you seem to be including his relief appearances. It is evident to me that he is better as a starter, and I recall Eric showing drastic splits for Wright on pitches 1-15 vs. 16+. (He seems to have solved that problem this year with his warm-up routine but I wouldn't be surprised if it came back were he shifted to the pen.) You want to include all that to make your point, go ahead, but you certainly won't convince me of anything.
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