Per StatCorner, Vazquez has now been the best pitch framer this year on a per-game basis of any catcher who has caught at least 4 pitches. He already has stolen more strikes this year than Ryan Hanigan who the Rays target for his framing abilities.
Don't tell Lester or he'll blow up John Farrell's world.
You can put your boots in the oven, but that don't make 'em biscuits.
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 23, 2014 1:35:06 GMT -5
This Pete Abraham article ties in well with the topic: TORONTO — The Red Sox won the first five games rookie Christian Vazquez played, something no catcher in team history had done. It’s an unusual little bit of trivia but indicative at the same time.
Vazquez, 23, arrived in the majors with uncommon defensive ability and that has translated into success. Red Sox pitchers have a 1.80 earned run average in those five games.
“It’s been fun,” Vazquez said Tuesday. “The team is doing well right now and that’s the biggest thing. It’s a lot different because everything matters here. It’s all about winning. It’s not like the minors.”
Vazquez twice has caught John Lackey, including seven strong innings Monday night.
“It’s a hard position for a rookie being a catcher, especially when you have a bunch of veteran starters like we do. But he has a real good feel,” Lackey said.
“He’s easy to talk to about what you want to do and incorporate the game plan. Plus his physical tools are awesome.”
Manager John Farrell was impressed with how well Vazquez communicated with Lackey on Monday, going to the mound when needed and making sure both were in synch.
“To hear the conversation in-between innings and then see it play out the following innings, it was a great moment by John to take Christian under his wing a little bit,” Farrell said.
Farrell said Vazquez has been “exceptional” at framing pitches and blocking balls in the dirt. Farrell and bullpen coach Dana LeVangie said Vazquez has dropped one pitch in his five games. That’s a vast difference from A.J. Pierzynski, the catcher dumped to make room for Vazquez.
“Christian has been schooled well along the way,” LeVangie said. “He has the right technique, the way he sets up and stays low. He also has strong hands and trusts his hands. He is so athletic and plays under control.”
LeVangie said Vazquez has the ability to let the ball come to him in his crouch and not reach to stab it. That leads to more strike calls by umpires. He also can hold onto low pitches, even fastballs, with little movement.
“I’ll throw him anything and I know he can stop it,” Lackey said.
For Vazquez, the biggest challenge has been utilizing the mountain of scouting and statistical information available.
“We didn’t have that in the minors, there’s so much more. You get everything,” he said. “[David] Ross helps me figure it out quickly, so I can help the pitchers. It’ll take me a little time to get to know everybody in the league, but I’ll get there.”
Farrell said the Red Sox are judicious in how much information they give Vazquez. More will be added over time as he learns how best to utilize the data.
Proud survivor of a hole in the ozone layer, an ice age, a complete polar cap meltdown, a worldwide millennium computer shutdown, and multiple; solar storms, Mayan calendar dates, Nostradamus quatrains and Apocalypses.
Vazquez's first back-to-back game is his first mediocre performance, dropping his WAR rate per 120 games to a mere 4.1. Which raises a question: is this a general tendency for catchers, and hence a reason why Ross, who has usually been a backup, ranks so high? I'll track the differential between games after a day off and games after a game and see if there's any statistical significance.
(Incidentally, he did have a day off between his last AAA game and his MLB debut.)
"You either need some medication or you're an a******." -- David Ortiz correctly diagnosing Bobby Valentine
Vazquez's first back-to-back game is his first mediocre performance, dropping his WAR rate per 120 games to a mere 4.1. Which raises a question: is this a general tendency for catchers, and hence a reason why Ross, who has usually been a backup, ranks so high? I'll track the differential between games after a day off and games after a game and see if there's any statistical significance.
(Incidentally, he did have a day off between his last AAA game and his MLB debut.)
Could this have more to do with De La Rosa tossing pumpkins out there than anything else?
Vazquez's first back-to-back game is his first mediocre performance, dropping his WAR rate per 120 games to a mere 4.1. Which raises a question: is this a general tendency for catchers, and hence a reason why Ross, who has usually been a backup, ranks so high? I'll track the differential between games after a day off and games after a game and see if there's any statistical significance.
(Incidentally, he did have a day off between his last AAA game and his MLB debut.)
Could this have more to do with De La Rosa tossing pumpkins out there than anything else?
No, he had a great game when Buchholz was lousy, so I'm not yet ready to look for correlations to pitcher performance.
To clarify the comment, obviously I'm saying nothing about a one game sample except that it's given me something worth looking at (following), to see if there's anything meaningful. You can't discover anything without first making observations.
"You either need some medication or you're an a******." -- David Ortiz correctly diagnosing Bobby Valentine
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 25, 2014 19:10:53 GMT -5
Are there no publicly available game logs of any catcher anyplace to study or, on the other hand, are there game logs of the raw information to generate that ?
Great stuff, very interesting. I'm guessing your answer lies more in the difference between the pitches delivered by Buchholz and the pitches delivered by RDLR on a bad day for them.
Proud survivor of a hole in the ozone layer, an ice age, a complete polar cap meltdown, a worldwide millennium computer shutdown, and multiple; solar storms, Mayan calendar dates, Nostradamus quatrains and Apocalypses.
Eric, do you really think that the command of the pitcher has no effect on pitch framing? Seems easier to frame a well-placed fastball than a breaking ball that misses the spot.
Are there no publicly available game logs of any catcher anyplace to study or, on the other hand, are there game logs of the raw information to generate that ?
Great stuff, very interesting. I'm guessing your answer lies more in the difference between the pitches delivered by Buchholz and the pitches delivered by RDLR on a bad day for them.
Right now I'm leaning towards grabbing the BP year-to-date data, the whole page, every day for the rest of the season. Simple to generate game logs for each catcher thereafter, and answer a lot of these questions. (Much more work to grab the stat lines of the starting pitchers worked with, however.)
No guarantee that I'll ever do the study, as in theory it's a very low priority. But it will be nice to have the data.
"You either need some medication or you're an a******." -- David Ortiz correctly diagnosing Bobby Valentine
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 25, 2014 23:16:39 GMT -5
Could also be related to the specific umpire behind the dish, lots of variables.
It also probably wouldn't take all that many days of grabbing the entire page to come up with a set of standard deviations broken down by class, good framers, average framers, bad framers, for example.
Last Edit: Jul 25, 2014 23:23:00 GMT -5 by philsbosoxfan
Proud survivor of a hole in the ozone layer, an ice age, a complete polar cap meltdown, a worldwide millennium computer shutdown, and multiple; solar storms, Mayan calendar dates, Nostradamus quatrains and Apocalypses.
Vazquez is settling in at 4.0 - 4.1 WAR per 125 games.* That figure would place him second in "history" (since 2008) to Jose Molina's insane 5.4, ahead of David Ross and Greg Zaun at 3.9.
*Using a new formula of .715 * Theoretical + .285 Actual, which is the ratio of the factors that predict next year's actual framing from the data from the current year.
Last Edit: Jul 31, 2014 0:20:51 GMT -5 by ericmvan
"You either need some medication or you're an a******." -- David Ortiz correctly diagnosing Bobby Valentine
Just when I declare Vazquez to be settling in at 4.0 - 4.1 WAR per season (125 games), he throws up his best game yet and boosts his annual rate to 4.6. The standard deviation of his per-game rate is 3.1, which is high.
I've added the identity of the starting pitcher to the log. No pattern yet.
"You either need some medication or you're an a******." -- David Ortiz correctly diagnosing Bobby Valentine
BTW, I haven't been neglecting this: there was no change to Vazquez's line in BP's report after either his 3 innings catching after Ross's injury or after Saturday's game. Presumably, the next update will cover several games.
"You either need some medication or you're an a******." -- David Ortiz correctly diagnosing Bobby Valentine
"heatmap picture" Add: The .gifs that accompany that article are fantastic. Everyone should go take a look.
That really is ridiculous, the black box is just an estimate, but still. High strikes are almost impossible to steal.
Another thing to note is he really hasn't lost that many strikes. It is more common than you think, and is usually the pitchers fault. I.E. Vazquez sets up outside but the pitch comes in inside, him reaching across makes a strike called a ball, but he is able to still take the mislocated pitch as a strike.
Thing was is I thought his arm was really his calling card and the rest of his skills lagged behind (pre 2014), he truly is the complete defensive package at catcher. He is also getting praise from pitchers with his ability to work with them.
Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 5, 2014 12:49:22 GMT -5
Christian Vazquez's catching skills are amazing. Those shots of him framing pitches that have no right to be called a strike are absolute highway robbery. It's amazing how quick yet subtle his arm snapping the ball back toward the strike zone is.
The Red Sox will eventually have a tough, tough decision to make ahead of them. I know everybody is wisely saying keep both catchers and see how it plays out, which makes a ton of sense, but when the Sox have both catchers on the roster, unless they split 162 games, in which case both catchers would be about 40 starts below where they should be as regulars, the Sox will have to decide between Vazquez's otherworldly defense and his potentially capable bat versus the strong arm and strong all around all-star caliber bat of Blake Swihart.
There's no way, barring an unfortunate injury, that this doesn't end in a trade. I think both Swihart and Vazquez are going to wind up being fantastic catchers.
A young all-star caliber catcher is a very strong trade chip down the road.
This will be very interesting to see how it plays out.
The Red Sox will eventually have a tough, tough decision to make ahead of them. I know everybody is wisely saying keep both catchers and see how it plays out, which makes a ton of sense, but when the Sox have both catchers on the roster, unless they split 162 games, in which case both catchers would be about 40 starts below where they should be as regulars, the Sox will have to decide between Vazquez's otherworldly defense and his potentially capable bat versus the strong arm and strong all around all-star caliber bat of Blake Swihart.
There's no way, barring an unfortunate injury, that this doesn't end in a trade. I think both Swihart and Vazquez are going to wind up being fantastic catchers.
If this were any other position than catcher, the Sox would have to make a decision a bit sooner (although at another position, they'd have the option to slide someone over). But since they're only giving up 40 starts -- and those 40 starts are being evaluated by another team -- they really aren't giving up TOO much value. If you have one or two minor injuries, account for breaking each of them in, and allow Swihart to get some time in as a PH, DH, or 1B, then you're really only talking about 10-15 starts in 2016. Which means you really need to make the decision some time during the 2017 season... which is such a long way off.
"heatmap picture" Add: The .gifs that accompany that article are fantastic. Everyone should go take a look.
That really is ridiculous, the black box is just an estimate, but still. High strikes are almost impossible to steal.
Another thing to note is he really hasn't lost that many strikes. It is more common than you think, and is usually the pitchers fault. I.E. Vazquez sets up outside but the pitch comes in inside, him reaching across makes a strike called a ball, but he is able to still take the mislocated pitch as a strike.
Thing was is I thought his arm was really his calling card and the rest of his skills lagged behind (pre 2014), he truly is the complete defensive package at catcher. He is also getting praise from pitchers with his ability to work with them.
Not quite true; he appears to be entirely average at blocking pitches in the dirt, based on both BP's data and eyeballs. (Hey, something to work on!) But when you are probably the best pitch-framer and (according to scouts) the best thrower in the game, that does make you the best defensive catcher. Easily.
I e-mailed BP and they spotted a bug in their report algorithm, and today's update (which I'm about to do) will reflect his last 2 1/3 games. He drops from 4.4 to 4.3 WAR -- still an easy second-best "ever."
Last Edit: Aug 5, 2014 14:08:14 GMT -5 by ericmvan
"You either need some medication or you're an a******." -- David Ortiz correctly diagnosing Bobby Valentine
The Red Sox will eventually have a tough, tough decision to make ahead of them. I know everybody is wisely saying keep both catchers and see how it plays out, which makes a ton of sense, but when the Sox have both catchers on the roster, unless they split 162 games, in which case both catchers would be about 40 starts below where they should be as regulars, the Sox will have to decide between Vazquez's otherworldly defense and his potentially capable bat versus the strong arm and strong all around all-star caliber bat of Blake Swihart.
There's no way, barring an unfortunate injury, that this doesn't end in a trade. I think both Swihart and Vazquez are going to wind up being fantastic catchers.
If this were any other position than catcher, the Sox would have to make a decision a bit sooner (although at another position, they'd have the option to slide someone over). But since they're only giving up 40 starts -- and those 40 starts are being evaluated by another team -- they really aren't giving up TOO much value. If you have one or two minor injuries, account for breaking each of them in, and allow Swihart to get some time in as a PH, DH, or 1B, then you're really only talking about 10-15 starts in 2016. Which means you really need to make the decision some time during the 2017 season... which is such a long way off.
That only works if DH or 1B is a relatively open position. If DH is manned by Ortiz and say he's only down to 30 HRs per year by then, there won't be many DH starts and if 1b is manned by a middle of the order presence there wouldn't be too many starts available at 1b, so you're talking about both guys getting roughly 250 - 300 plate appearances which isn't many especially is Swihart swings a pretty good bat by then.
Again, we're picking at a lot conjecture. We don't know what 1b or DH will look line then. We don't know how fast Swihart will adjust to major league pitching by then and we don't know if Vazquez is going to continue to take offensive steps forward, so all this is a ton of premature conjecture, and it certainly isn't a problem. I just think sooner or later it has to go one way or the other. That day of reckoning isn't here. It might be if a deal for an ace pitcher or a cleanup hitter gets made this winter (in that case it would most likely be Swihart getting dealt).
Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 6, 2014 3:02:04 GMT -5
Just saw this. It's such stark contrast to Vazquez that it's worth looking at.
Sorry a gif that doesn't imbed.
Last Edit: Aug 6, 2014 3:06:40 GMT -5 by philsbosoxfan
Proud survivor of a hole in the ozone layer, an ice age, a complete polar cap meltdown, a worldwide millennium computer shutdown, and multiple; solar storms, Mayan calendar dates, Nostradamus quatrains and Apocalypses.
Vazquez is still listed as projecting to a 5 on the main page. With 4 or 5 WAR of defense and a bat that is clearly better than replacement level, he's already a 6, with 7 upside. At least.
BTW, of 72 catchers with 100+ innings caught, Vazquez is virtually tied for 3rd in fewest SB attempts per inning, with Wilin Rosario, after Yadier Molina and the Brewers' Martin Maldonado.
"You either need some medication or you're an a******." -- David Ortiz correctly diagnosing Bobby Valentine