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2014 Trade Deadline Thread - Discussion Only
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 23, 2014 7:46:09 GMT -5
What I'm saying is if the reason that you don't trade Lester is to try and make the playoffs, and then you don't make the playoffs, what you've accomplished is simply to worsen your draft position. I hear what you're saying, and a protected pick would be nice if we aren't making the playoffs. Still, on July 31st, it's often hard to say what is possible. I don't think this recent run is a fluke. We have better health, players performing more towards the norm expected vs. way below (regression to the mean?), and no AJP. Contrary to popular opinion, the Sox as an organization are trying to make the playoffs every year. If their chances are slim, but they are playing better and getting closer to the playoffs, they aren't likely to make the decision to sell off every last piece to stock the farm system as much possible and they aren't worried so much about where they're drafting. Exactly. Organizational meeting at 11am. Subject: How do we become one of the worst 9 teams in MLB this year? Lucchino will love that. Put the tin foil hat down. Seriously doubt that we sign a big-name free agent this winter anyway. What's the difference if we're picking 10th or 14th??
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Post by godot on Jul 23, 2014 8:50:26 GMT -5
Seems many teams are waiting until the last moment. Reports are that Sox are looking at an outfielder in the Card's system that has upside but also a gamble. Seems like this is what they are willing to accept for Peavy.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 23, 2014 9:00:43 GMT -5
The only gamble regarding Peavy is not deciding that they are sellers and continuing to trot him out there for loss after loss.
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Post by sammo420 on Jul 23, 2014 10:40:04 GMT -5
Seems many teams are waiting until the last moment. Reports are that Sox are looking at an outfielder in the Card's system that has upside but also a gamble. Seems like this is what they are willing to accept for Peavy. I'd be happy with that return. Regardless of where we pick in the draft I think it's time to see we have in Pawtucket anyway.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 23, 2014 10:43:19 GMT -5
The only gamble regarding Peavy is not deciding that they are sellers and continuing to trot him out there for loss after loss. Every five days they wait to trade Peavy costs the team $400k and does not improve their return.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jul 23, 2014 11:27:13 GMT -5
Things can change. A contending team may need a starter in a week which doesn't need one now. If Peavy pitches well they may be able to pick up a quality prospect. It depends upon starter demand at the deadline, which is to a degree unknowable right now. So far reports are we can't get anything other than salary relief for Peavy. I think waiting until the last minute might bear some fruit.
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Post by tonyc on Jul 23, 2014 12:31:04 GMT -5
I agree with both of you. I don't believe the improvement the Sox have recently shown is an outlier, however the odds are greatly in favor of them falling short, and Gammons is usually a good prognosticator, so I favor getting something more substantial for Lester this month. However, particularly being in Boston, how much does public pressure motivate the decision to not do that- to not go all out when there is a chance at the playoffs, and also to be the ones to "bail' out on Lester when he said the right words about interest in coming back, and lastly to bail on the veteran core of this team, which granted will be replaced soon enough by the young players. However, as we've read players are increasingly unified and appearances of how an organization treats it's players, and goes for it, ect. do have an effect on how likely prospective free agents are to sign on.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 23, 2014 12:38:14 GMT -5
Things can change. A contending team may need a starter in a week which doesn't need one now. If Peavy pitches well they may be able to pick up a quality prospect. It depends upon starter demand at the deadline, which is to a degree unknowable right now. So far reports are we can't get anything other than salary relief for Peavy. I think waiting until the last minute might bear some fruit. Or maybe there are fewer teams contending, Wacha comes back for the Cardinals and every other contending team is pleased with their starters.
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Post by jmei on Jul 23, 2014 12:59:26 GMT -5
Or maybe there are fewer teams contending, Wacha comes back for the Cardinals and every other contending team is pleased with their starters. There are no teams who were contenders three weeks ago but aren't contenders now, and there is very rarely surprise good news that pitchers can deliver in the span of three weeks. It is just a fact that GMs will often wait until right before the trade deadline to offer the best possible trade packages. Three weeks ago, we were praying that we could find a team willing to take on just a little bit of Peavy's salary, but now, Boston might actually get a real prospect for him. We'll see soon enough whether the front office's patience will be rewarded.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jul 23, 2014 13:03:49 GMT -5
In my opinion a great deal. There are some decision makers who seem to want to run the team based upon what talk radio show caller and hosts say.
The most logical thing to do would be to trade Lester and others to get the young impact bat and/or starting pitching prospect that they desperately need to round out their core for several years. But they won't do that because Michael Felger and Dan Shaughnassy might not like that. Not that they even know or care who Josh Bell, Dylan Bundy, and Hunter Harvey are!
But you can bet that no one will be traded and even worse yet they might even give up prospects in an attempt to get the second wild card and get into a one game playoff. Never mind that their chances of reaching this goal are already slim and if they do reach it, the odds are against actually winning the World Series from that spot.
All reports point to the idea that they won't even take calls on Lester because they want to sign him. It's a mistake. I don't buy that trading him means you can't sign him in the off-season. What benefit is there to keeping him in this lost season.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 23, 2014 13:28:42 GMT -5
I feel the Sox should listen to offers for Lackey . Peavy definitely. I think if we don't resign Lester ,I don't feel LAckey can anchor the rotation next year. He isn't a leader especially with those young kids coming up . They still have Buch.
I wish they got Lester done when they could of but I picture the MFY going after maybe 2 pitchers next year.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 23, 2014 13:37:23 GMT -5
The only gamble regarding Peavy is not deciding that they are sellers and continuing to trot him out there for loss after loss. Every five days they wait to trade Peavy costs the team $400k and does not improve their return. Agreed. It's like the FO won't accept taking nothing back in return, except for taking over his salary after giving up Iglesias. Enough is enough. Peavy did his job last year and they need to see more of Workman and Ranaudo, other than the aforementioned 400k per game each of his consecutive losses are costing the team. Get over the pride thing and unload him. Both Cherrington and Farrell are showing big flaws this season.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,961
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Post by cdj on Jul 23, 2014 13:51:29 GMT -5
I don't see it as a "pride" thing, I see it as a "get some value" for him thing which I don't blame them for. You don't give away an asset just because you have other assets behind him. Peavy has value as an experienced pitcher who is probably slightly above league average in the National League. You don't just hand him away for nothing.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 23, 2014 14:08:25 GMT -5
Cherington should call up Cashman and say "I'll give you Peavy for JR Murphy, [insert insult/cuss word here]" In seriousness Peavy would of been traded already if it was acceptable for the Red Sox and Yankees to trade players. (obviously not for Murphy)
It's been fun to watch the Red Sox winning lately, and I really really really want them to continue to win and make a push for the playoffs, but the realistic side of me thinks it's time to start ramping up for 2015. I'd rather focus on the good shot we have in 2015 than the lightning in the bottle shot we have this year. There's a business side to this that the Red Sox can't sell because of the large and active fan base. People like us who follow prospects and try to involve ourselves with the total picture of running a baseball team would understand a sell more than the average fans who just see the 7.5 games back number.
For me, I would make anyone who's contract is expiring this year available, along with Lackey, Doubrount, and Buchholz, although to trade any of those three I would have to feel certain I got back more value than they were worth. I feel anyone we want to keep we should resign before the trade deadline, if we can't get that done than we trade them and join the fray to sign them in the offseason. I am well aware of the documentation that players traded typically don't resign, but it does not change my opinion.
Unfortunately I believe the ship has sailed on Lester. I was against going after McCann, Beltran, Hamilton, Greinke, Ellsbury, Shoo, Bourn, .... Basically any big name recent free agent (excluding Tanaka because of age, although my max offer wouldn't be close to what NY gave him)... because these players generally don't live up to their contracts. It is much better to build the team in aggregate than to focus on what one person brings to the table. Earlier I was for resigning him (now I think he is too expensive), but I said the biggest mistake would be to let him walk. Either sign him or trade him. This is a mistake I believe the Red Sox are going to knowingly make.
It's not just the cost of Lester's contract, it is the total opportunity cost associated with it. Right now, Lester's replacement would be Ranaudo or Webster. There is an obvious difference between Lester and his replacement, but is it a 25M difference? No. You can't look at the Punto trade and focus just on the players swapped, you have to also consider the signing of Napoli, Victorino, Drew, Gomes, Dempster, Ross, and Uehara. You have to build team in aggregate, and I take Ranaudo, trade return, and 25M cap space over Lester, and that is not factoring in the long term part of his contract.
This last comment is mostly sarcastic with a hint of truth to it. We might increase our chances of signing him by trading him. Crawford comes to mind. He only played in Tampa his entire career and he hated playing in Boston. As Lester likes playing here it might benefit him some to play for another team, so he has something to compare his time in Boston too, although the same concept might work against us and give him more confidence in playing for another team.
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Post by artfuldodger on Jul 23, 2014 15:08:02 GMT -5
I would trade Lester or Lackey or Peavy whoever we can trade for fair value. I would not trade more than 1 as the pressure on the young pitchers may become too great and that could stunt their development.
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Post by jclmontana on Jul 23, 2014 15:09:26 GMT -5
In my opinion a great deal. There are some decision makers who seem to want to run the team based upon what talk radio show caller and hosts say. Utter garbage. Give me one piece of real evidence that this is the case (and no, using the qualifier "seem" doesn't let you off the hook). You often chide others to stay real in threads about Henry Owens, the strength of the system, and elsewhere all over the board, yet you then post this speculative, completely unsupported, inflammatory, troll-ish dreck. Based on the reluctance to sign big-name free agents alone, it is quite clear that the front office is not run according to the whims of WEEI callers. Add in their patience with this season, the continued faith that the team should be better in the 2nd half, and sticking with Farrell, then you really cannot support your claim.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 23, 2014 15:10:50 GMT -5
If Lester is gone, we might want to mail it in next year. Imagine him in N.Y. with Tanaka, Nova, Pineda.... and that 7th-9th inning bullpen? Oops! No one we have is going to replace him as a horse. I am glad that Rubby is developing but Webster, Barnes & Ranaudo currently leave me a bit limp. Each could use the application of some Compound W. Owens...is the Great Unknown and some distance away in any case. On top of that we have no up-and-coming reliable power and what we do have is cruising in the right lane on the Jeter highway.
I would trade Lackey and Koji as each will have more short-term value to others.
But still, I hope that we re-sign Lester and live with the kids. Even if we are pretenders for a few years, watching homegrown talent ascend provides enough excitement for me.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 23, 2014 15:15:12 GMT -5
If Lester is gone, we might want to mail it in next year. Imagine him in N.Y. with Tanaka, Nova, Pineda.... and that 7th-9th inning bullpen? Oops! No one we have is going to replace him as a horse. I am glad that Rubby is developing but Webster, Barnes & Ranaudo currently leave me a bit limp. Each could use the application of some Compound W. Owens...is the Great Unknown and some distance away in any case. On top of that we have no up-and-coming reliable power and what we do have is cruising in the right lane on the Jeter highway. You expect Lester to miss most of the season?
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 23, 2014 17:09:51 GMT -5
If Lester is gone, we might want to mail it in next year. Imagine him in N.Y. with Tanaka, Nova, Pineda.... and that 7th-9th inning bullpen? Oops! No one we have is going to replace him as a horse. I am glad that Rubby is developing but Webster, Barnes & Ranaudo curre ntly leave me a bit limp. Each could use the application of some Compound W. Owens...is the Great Unknown and some distance away in any case. On top of that we have no up-and-coming reliable power and what we do have is cruising in the right lane on the Jeter highway. You expect Lester to miss most of the season? Yup, it's probably too early to tell for sure but I hear that he felt a twinge.... Obviously a good point....lots of ifs there and I thank you for removing the smudges from my lenses......but eventually these young studs will likely rise and be damned formidable. With your permission could I substitute Phelps and McCarthy? No good huh?...ok. ...... Yankees suck!...thhhhaAAAHHHHH Yankees SUCK!
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Post by jdb on Jul 23, 2014 17:13:06 GMT -5
Competitive Balance Round A
Marlins Rockies Cardinals Brewers Padres Indians Competitive Balance Round B
Reds Athletics Mariners Twins Orioles Diamondbacks
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,961
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Post by cdj on Jul 23, 2014 17:29:37 GMT -5
Semi off topic, but kinda related to the post above:
It is absolutely preposterous that a "competitive" balance pick goes to a team that was in the WS last year, yet the lowest and third lowest payrolls get shutout.
So broken for something so new.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 23, 2014 17:30:21 GMT -5
I wonder if the Sox could get the Cardinal's Round A pick for Peavy?
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Jul 23, 2014 17:31:27 GMT -5
why are the Cards there?
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,961
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Post by cdj on Jul 23, 2014 17:38:53 GMT -5
No clue, it's ridiculous. 13th highest payroll coupled with a large fan base. Not to mention they are consistently a successful franchise. But yeah, it would be interesting if we could pull that pick for Peavy.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 23, 2014 17:54:17 GMT -5
I would trade Lester or Lackey or Peavy whoever we can trade for fair value. I would not trade more than 1 as the pressure on the young pitchers may become too great and that could stunt their development. I understand your point but regardless, the Darwinian principle ultimately rules. Sure we don't want our young eaten but at some point..........For me, let's see what we got. Peavy is persona non grata/Mr.Unlucky and Lackey has been a late-middle age resurgent. Peavy has little value except maybe as a #4, 5 in the NL but Lackey would be in high demand to many contenders. I'm sure his salary for next year gets restructured but maybe that helps us now in the trade market too. Our team appears to be running on an old, talent-empty tank. The latest improvement in play has been against less formidable opponents and is, to me, like the "dead-cat bounce".....a mirage....Let's discard colored lenses, display courage, stay the organizational course, cut bait, and re-cast. See you in 2-3 years with a trophy!! I don't want a sub or .500 team making the playoffs "because anything can happen". There is not enough patience in baseball IMO and if management did not succumb to the pressure of "winning now" every year, how different could the future be?
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