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Post by Jonathan Singer on Jul 21, 2014 8:07:49 GMT -5
7/21 Red Sox (RHP John Lackey 10-6 3.79) @ Blue Jays (RHP Drew Hutchinson 6-8 4.16) 7:07 pm ET, NESN/WEEI7/22 Red Sox (RHP Jake Peavy 1-8 4.59) @ Blue Jays (LHP J.A. Happ 7-5 4.91) 7:07 pm ET, NESN/WEEI7/23 Red Sox (RHP Clay Buchholz 5-5 5.46) @ Blue Jays (RHP R.A. Dickey 7-10 3.95) 7:07 pm ET, NESN/WEEI7/24 Red Sox (RHP Rubby De La Rosa 3-2 2.64) @ Blue Jays (RHP Marcus Stroman 5-2 3.58) 12:37 pm ET, NESN/WEEIMLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsWeatherSeries Thread Disclaimer: The SoxProspects Moderators will be somewhat liberal in policing the Red Sox "Series" Threads. Some of the Ground Rules are applied loosely in here, as we understand that there is a tendency to want to react (or overreact) to every play of a Sox game with one line reactionary posts. Those posts are okay in the Red Sox Series threads to a point - we certainly appreciate the passion. Just try not to overdo it, and try to maintain some semblance of reason. In addition, please don't let those type of posts spill over to other more substantive threads, where they may be deleted. -The Management
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Post by soxfanatic on Jul 21, 2014 8:22:49 GMT -5
Don't look now but JBJ is fourth in WAR among Red Sox position players.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,915
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 21, 2014 8:26:28 GMT -5
Might as well put this here, as folks have been mentioning Papi's struggles in these threads.
You remember back in mid-May, when he went all Godlike on the Twins with 4 homers in two days? He's been awful ever since.
In the pitch breakdowns, I've combined sinkers with two-seamers (FT), knuckle curves with curves, and forkballs with splitters (FS). The second set of pitch numbers is linear weight runs per 100 pitches.
Date -5/14 since PA 164 244 BA .305 .211 OBP .396 .316 SA .596 .392 GDP 2 10 wOBA .416 .303 wRC+ 164 87 K% .166 .140 UBB% .089 .098 HRC .095 .051 BABIP .305 .207 XB% .250 .314 LD% .190 .163 GB% .353 .388 FB% .457 .449 IFFB% .075 .063 HR/FB .208 .113 IFH% .049 .014 FA% .322 .318 FT% .204 .174 FC% .034 .070 SL% .181 .130 CU% .079 .130 CH% .104 .113 FS% .037 .036 wFA/C 4.09 -0.60 wFT/C 1.42 -0.97 wFC/C -4.20 -3.95 wSL/C 0.79 2.63 wCU/C 0.22 0.44 wCH/C 4.02 -2.34 wFS/C -0.26 0.03 P/PA 3.95 3.89 O-Sw% .253 .277 Z-Sw% .628 .704 Swing% .425 .464 O-Con% .647 .657 Z-Con% .877 .926 Con% .803 .836 Zone% .459 .437 Str% .576 .581
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Post by jmei on Jul 21, 2014 8:35:13 GMT -5
He might have had awful results, but I don't see any sustainable red flags there. Looks like he's lost a bunch of singles (big drop in BABIP) and had some home runs turn into doubles. I read that as luck-driven small sample size fluctuation and not a skill decline. If his luck changes and he gets it going, this offense can be one of the better ones in the league, especially if Xander starts producing like he should. This is a very talented offensive club; they just haven't shown it so far.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,915
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 21, 2014 9:01:09 GMT -5
He might have had awful results, but I don't see any sustainable red flags there. Looks like he's lost a bunch of singles (big drop in BABIP) and had some home runs turn into doubles. I read that as luck-driven small sample size fluctuation and not a skill decline. If his luck changes and he gets it going, this offense can be one of the better ones in the league, especially if Xander starts producing like he should. This is a very talented offensive club; they just haven't shown it so far. I see some alteration of approach, but agree that there's little evidence of a skill decline. He's swinging at some fastballs in the zone that he'd normally take, and making weak contact on them. I think his mechanics have been slightly off at times as well, so he's fouling off some pitches he would hit hard and hit a handful of balls to the warning track that he might have ordinarily hit out. But he's also hit some balls to deep center that he might have pulled a bit more for homers, and there's a lot of luck in that.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 21, 2014 9:26:55 GMT -5
Can't wait to see another Peavy start.
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Post by godot on Jul 21, 2014 9:33:46 GMT -5
Second Eric's observations, something noted awhile back but did not know what to make of it other than timing seemed off. There is a remote chance that it could suggest declining skills as reaction time (timing) can be the first to go followed by "slow swing", but he was hitting many balls hard but to no avail. The shift and being the only real hitting threat hasn't helped him this year. Still, he is what... 38
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 21, 2014 9:37:07 GMT -5
Don't look now but JBJ is fourth in WAR among Red Sox position players. I don't know if this has been posted elsewhere but, worth a look, not many CFers can do this: Bradley Throw
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Post by okin15 on Jul 21, 2014 9:38:25 GMT -5
Not only is keeping Peavy bad for this year, it's bad for next. They're looking at going into the off-season with Rubby as the easiest to project member of the rotation; Lester's a FA, Lackey might retire, Buch can't stay on the field, Doubie is really a BP arm, Workman has shown to be little better than Doubront on average (Mi and MLB career), Ranaudo, Webster and Wright have no recent/relevant MLB track record. Much better to get W, W, W and R some more reps to see if any can show more than 5th starter.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 21, 2014 9:44:40 GMT -5
Yeah, does anyone have any certainty that Peavy is a better option than Workman, Webster, Ranaudo, or Wright at this point? If not, he should be gone yesterday. I don't think the bidding war is going to be that extravagant and I'd rather that someone else just take the other starts than to worry about squeezing out another Z- prospect.
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Post by klostrophobic on Jul 21, 2014 11:22:06 GMT -5
I would imagine at most he has this and one more start for the Red Sox anyway. How much difference is two starts by Peavy relative to any of the guys in Pawtucket?
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 21, 2014 11:28:08 GMT -5
I would imagine at most he has this and one more start for the Red Sox anyway. How much difference is two starts by Peavy relative to any of the guys in Pawtucket? Probably about 25%. (Increase in sample size on that prospect, that is.)
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Post by jmei on Jul 21, 2014 12:19:37 GMT -5
I would imagine at most he has this and one more start for the Red Sox anyway. How much difference is two starts by Peavy relative to any of the guys in Pawtucket? Probably about 25%. (Increase in sample size on that prospect, that is.) Even assuming that Webster or Wright would get the start instead of Workman (which is pretty unlikely), one or two starts isn't going to tell us much. The difference between DFAing Peavy now and moving him in two weeks could well be that other team takes on $2m of his contract or offers a C/C- prospect in return; that's well worth it for one or two additional starts.
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Post by okin15 on Jul 21, 2014 13:18:38 GMT -5
Sucks though, cause it's not just the next two starts, it's the last two as well. And again, it's not just the value to the team this year (which might be pretty small) it's also the value of evaluating and comfortizing (new word) the replacement prospect.
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Post by jmei on Jul 21, 2014 13:45:24 GMT -5
Sucks though, cause it's not just the next two starts, it's the last two as well. And again, it's not just the value to the team this year (which might be pretty small) it's also the value of evaluating and comfortizing (new word) the replacement prospect. Still, you weigh the benefits of giving four starts to a prospect against the improved return you get for Peavy at the deadline. It's a defensible position to think that those four starts don't matter much, while a desperate team might give up something of value or take on more of his contract. You might disagree, but I hope you'll concede that it's at least a judgment call.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 21, 2014 14:10:14 GMT -5
Victorino sitting tonight.
Holt - RF Pedey - 2B Ortiz - DH Napoli - 1B Nava - LF Drew - SS Bogaerts - 3B JBJ - CF Vazquez - C
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Post by okin15 on Jul 21, 2014 14:15:47 GMT -5
Sucks though, cause it's not just the next two starts, it's the last two as well. And again, it's not just the value to the team this year (which might be pretty small) it's also the value of evaluating and comfortizing (new word) the replacement prospect. Still, you weigh the benefits of giving four starts to a prospect against the improved return you get for Peavy at the deadline. It's a defensible position to think that those four starts don't matter much, while a desperate team might give up something of value or take on more of his contract. You might disagree, but I hope you'll concede that it's at least a judgment call. Yes, absolutely. Sorry that I didn't make it clear this was a whine/opinion.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 21, 2014 15:40:42 GMT -5
Probably about 25%. (Increase in sample size on that prospect, that is.) Even assuming that Webster or Wright would get the start instead of Workman (which is pretty unlikely), one or two starts isn't going to tell us much. The difference between DFAing Peavy now and moving him in two weeks could well be that other team takes on $2m of his contract or offers a C/C- prospect in return; that's well worth it for one or two additional starts. God, I wish Bowden was a GM somewhere so Cherrington could fleece him. He just stated that Piscotty for Peavy straight-up would probably get done if StL decides it really wants Peavy.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 21, 2014 15:44:23 GMT -5
Even assuming that Webster or Wright would get the start instead of Workman (which is pretty unlikely), one or two starts isn't going to tell us much. The difference between DFAing Peavy now and moving him in two weeks could well be that other team takes on $2m of his contract or offers a C/C- prospect in return; that's well worth it for one or two additional starts. God, I wish Bowden was a GM somewhere so Cherrington could fleece him. He just stated that Piscotty for Peavy straight-up would probably get done if StL decides it really wants Peavy. If that happens, I take back about what I've said re: Ben holding onto guys too long.
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Post by jmei on Jul 21, 2014 15:48:49 GMT -5
As I said in the other thread, there's a reason Jim Bowden is not a GM anymore.
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Post by godot on Jul 21, 2014 15:54:42 GMT -5
Nice to see Sizemore get off to a good start with the Phils. Hit safely in 8 of his first 10 games, with 7 hits in his first three games.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 21, 2014 18:23:24 GMT -5
God, I wish Bowden was a GM somewhere so Cherrington could fleece him. He just stated that Piscotty for Peavy straight-up would probably get done if StL decides it really wants Peavy. If that happens, I take back about what I've said re: Ben holding onto guys too long. How can you claim Cherington holds on to prospects too long without knowing what we were offered? What prospects have stagnated that we could have gotten something for?
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ianrs
Veteran
Posts: 2,409
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Post by ianrs on Jul 21, 2014 18:44:59 GMT -5
I cannot get enough of Christian Vazquez (and BABIP).
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 21, 2014 18:48:26 GMT -5
I cannot get enough of Christian Vazquez (and BABIP). The boxscore will show he got a clutch hit. And, Xander got nothing out of an ab with runners on 1st and 2nd with nobody on. Xander rifles a shot to the third baseman. Meanwhile, Vazquez dribbles a ball 45-50 feet
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 21, 2014 18:53:53 GMT -5
Looking good so far... let's make the lead such that we don't need to test whether Taz and Koji really have a Rogers Center problem.
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