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badfishnbc
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Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 410
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Post by badfishnbc on Oct 5, 2012 14:03:13 GMT -5
He's over now (along with the Sands Man).
What's next for him? Does he qualify as post-prospect? Is he in need of Triple A seasoning, or is he immediately penciled in for the 2013 rotation?
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Post by welovewally on Oct 5, 2012 14:13:10 GMT -5
I would think he comes into spring training ready to compete for a spot on the 25 man roster as a Starting Pitcher wouldn't he?
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Post by elguapo on Oct 5, 2012 14:30:41 GMT -5
If past is prologue, the Sox will plan on having 5 starters and placing De La Rosa in AAA to begin the season. He hasn't logged too many innings the last few years so it may be helpful in a tune-up sense as well.
On the other hand, there's no reason he couldn't start the season in the rotation. Considering that next year really is a bridge year, it's more important that we develop our starting pitching appropriately than worry about hoarding depth -- if working through issues at the major league level is the best way, then they should do that.
Either way, ideally, God willing an' the creek don't rise, he will get around 20 major league starts.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 5, 2012 14:34:54 GMT -5
Any idea what the immediate plans are for him? Play winter ball?
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 5, 2012 14:42:17 GMT -5
Rubby.....what a great name!
I'm also interested in how the Sox proceed with him. He has pitched so little since Tommy John that I'm sure they want to get a look at where he is arm wise before making the appropriate decisions. Exciting to have several young power arms getting close to competing for a job. I would hope he can come into Spring Training at win the #5 spot in the rotation.
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soxin8
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Post by soxin8 on Oct 5, 2012 22:15:29 GMT -5
The Sox used 25 pitchers (not counting McDonald) and 9 different starters this year. Sometimes building depth takes precedent. I could see DLR being one of the top 5 in spring training but being optioned anyway. Having DLR being the first man up might be more valueable to the Sox than him winning a rotation spot. We all know what happened when Cook and Stewart were called on this year.
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Post by jmei on Oct 6, 2012 14:14:49 GMT -5
Speier has an article on on De La Rosa ( link). Here's an excerpt: De La Rosa underwent Tommy John surgery on Aug. 9, 2011, and he just got his feet wet in his return this year. He pitched a total of 13 2/3 innings in the big leagues and minors, and so while his arsenal -- when healthy -- is big-league ready, the Sox will likely open the year with him in the minors next year to manage his innings and build up the 24-year-old’s workload gradually.
Moreover, because there is some uncertainty about precisely where in his rehab progression De La Rosa will be, the Sox are in a position where it makes more sense to build their 2013 rotation this offseason on the assumption that he won’t be a part of it to start the year, and then adjust once they get a better read on where he is. For now, there are no plans for De La Rosa either to join the Sox in the Fall Instructional League or to pitch in winter ball. There's also a hyperbolic scouting report from a former manager and another good scouting report from an unnamed scout. Seems like he has very good stuff and just needs to harness it.
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Post by brendan98 on Oct 6, 2012 14:42:27 GMT -5
In the Speier article, Rubby's changeup is said to be an 80 (on the 20-80 scouting scale), but on his Sox Prospects profile it is said to be a fringe pitch. Anybody have any info to clarify this?
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Post by Chris Mellen on Oct 6, 2012 14:58:55 GMT -5
I'm working on getting a couple of scouting reports on Rubby De La Rosa and will have his SoxProspects scouting report updated very soon. I like to see the player first, but because that's not going to happen until next spring and there is a lot of interest I have been reaching out.
The changeup has been mentioned as "60+" or plus-to-better so far.
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Post by jmei on Oct 6, 2012 15:27:27 GMT -5
In the Speier article, Rubby's changeup is said to be an 80 (on the 20-80 scouting scale), but on his Sox Prospects profile it is said to be a fringe pitch. Anybody have any info to clarify this? Keep in mind that the individual who said that was Chuck Chim, De La Rosa's pitching coach for AA Chattanooga. Not exactly a neutral evaluator, and it is certainly not a true 80 pitch (as Chris can attest, those are exceedingly rare-- would have to be in the top four or five changeups in the game), but a good changeup will play well off his fastball and help him stick as a starter.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Oct 6, 2012 15:58:04 GMT -5
Here's a basic question I've never really seen an answer to: how likely is it for a guy to "harness his control"? It's talked about often, and it clearly happens ... Pedro Martinez had a 3.7 BB rate over his minor league career, for instance (in fact, the hyperbolic Pedro/Rubby comparison Rubby's AA coach made actually does play out in minor league stats; they're really similar).
But it's one thing I've never looked at in any systemic way. Is it common? More common for some types of pitchers than others? I've certainly seen plenty of guys who were wild and just stayed wild ...
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Post by remember04 on Oct 6, 2012 16:44:04 GMT -5
Here's a basic question I've never really seen an answer to: how likely is it for a guy to "harness his control"? It's talked about often, and it clearly happens ... Pedro Martinez had a 3.7 BB rate over his minor league career, for instance (in fact, the hyperbolic Pedro/Rubby comparison Rubby's AA coach made actually does play out in minor league stats; they're really similar). But it's one thing I've never looked at in any systemic way. Is it common? More common for some types of pitchers than others? I've certainly seen plenty of guys who were wild and just stayed wild ... As much info as I can give you on this is that the taller a person is the harder it is/longer it can take. Not that it applies here and it doesn't even make any sense to me but lefties are supposed to have a tougher time with it too. Basing this on stuff I read about Randy Johnson that was linked on this site many years ago.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 6, 2012 16:51:13 GMT -5
I'm working on getting a couple of scouting reports on Rubby De La Rosa and will have his SoxProspects scouting report updated very soon. I like to see the player first, but because that's not going to happen until next spring and there is a lot of interest I have been reaching out. The changeup has been mentioned as "60+" or plus-to-better so far. If the changeup is really at that level, do you think the potential to be a #2 starter is there for De La Rosa? I know the breaking ball will still be a question.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 6, 2012 17:08:21 GMT -5
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redsox04071318champs
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Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 6, 2012 17:18:48 GMT -5
I read/heard somewhere that Pedro Martinez will be taking a role in the Sox organization, hopefully working with young pitchers. If so, the Sox should send De La Rosa to meet Pedro immediately as there is much Pedro can teach this kid to help him out. He's got the ability - it he needs the mentality, maturity, and ability to harness it, Pedro is a guy who can help him immensely. I had also heard that Pedro was a favorite of De La Rosa. This guy has the capability of being an ace pitcher. The Sox need to tap the potential. This could be huge down the road.
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Post by mredsox89 on Oct 7, 2012 0:59:03 GMT -5
It's pretty funny at the lack of publicity De La Rosa and Webster are getting in the Boston media/general fans. They only bring up the dump of $260M, which is great, no doubt. But they got two legit pitching prospects back, who become top 5 team prospects, in a position where the upper minors were the Sox had little to nothing of SP
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Post by jioh on Oct 7, 2012 6:35:53 GMT -5
Here's a basic question I've never really seen an answer to: how likely is it for a guy to "harness his control"? It's talked about often, and it clearly happens ... Pedro Martinez had a 3.7 BB rate over his minor league career, for instance (in fact, the hyperbolic Pedro/Rubby comparison Rubby's AA coach made actually does play out in minor league stats; they're really similar). ... ... Pedro as a 21YO reliever for the Dodges walked 57 in 107 ip, or 4.8 per nine. Then he was 2.5-3.1 for the next five years, before his second year in Boston was the first of the 4 amazing years under 2.
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Post by jioh on Oct 7, 2012 6:45:41 GMT -5
Here's a basic question I've never really seen an answer to: how likely is it for a guy to "harness his control"? It's talked about often, and it clearly happens ... Pedro Martinez had a 3.7 BB rate over his minor league career, for instance (in fact, the hyperbolic Pedro/Rubby comparison Rubby's AA coach made actually does play out in minor league stats; they're really similar). But it's one thing I've never looked at in any systemic way. Is it common? More common for some types of pitchers than others? I've certainly seen plenty of guys who were wild and just stayed wild ... anecdotal evidence and scattered stats: www.azcentral.com/members/Blog/NickPiecoro/167480[selections] “Trevor Bauer: 4.6 Archie Bradley: 5.6 Andrew Chafin: 5.3 Anthony Meo: 4.4” “Cliff Lee ….walked 7.3 batters per nine innings as a 21-year-old in the Sally League. "Randy Johnson? Too easy." "CC Sabathia? …..4.7 in his first full season in 1999." “Clayton Kershaw walked 4.9 per nine between the Midwest League and the Southern League in 2007.” “Ubaldo Jimenez? Also too easy.” “Matt Cain walked 4.5 per nine in Triple-A at age 20.” “Felix Hernandez walked 4.9 per nine in Triple-A in 2005. Chris Carpenter walked a ton of guys in the first four years of his pro career.”
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Post by jioh on Oct 7, 2012 6:48:38 GMT -5
Here's a basic question I've never really seen an answer to: how likely is it for a guy to "harness his control"? It's talked about often, and it clearly happens ... Pedro Martinez had a 3.7 BB rate over his minor league career, for instance (in fact, the hyperbolic Pedro/Rubby comparison Rubby's AA coach made actually does play out in minor league stats; they're really similar). But it's one thing I've never looked at in any systemic way. Is it common? More common for some types of pitchers than others? I've certainly seen plenty of guys who were wild and just stayed wild ... Another guy is more systematic, and pessimistic, though he he does say that "stuff"provides the exceptions: seedlingstostars.com/2012/09/05/minor-league-walk-rates-and-starting-pitchers/"I decided to take a look at any active, qualified pitcher with an adjusted ERA+ at or over 100 (or at or over league average). " "fifty pitchers" "The results were nearly staggering. The average minor league walk rate per nine innings for all pitchers on this list was just 3.172 (the median walk rate was just three walks per nine innings). Only 10 pitchers on the list had a walk rate at or over 4.0, and a number of them have elite, plus-plus stuff (Kerry Wood at 6.2 BB/9, C.C. Sabathia at 4.3 BB/9) while others really changed their careers with the development of new pitches (Tim Hudson at 4 BB/9, Cliff Lee at 4.2 BB/9). In other words, unless you have life-changing stuff or are in the minors for long enough to develop a new pitch, it’s extremely unlikely that a pitcher with an above average walk rate is going to make it as an above-average starting pitcher in the majors."
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Post by jioh on Oct 7, 2012 9:33:40 GMT -5
It's pretty funny at the lack of publicity De La Rosa and Webster are getting in the Boston media/general fans. They only bring up the dump of $260M, which is great, no doubt. But they got two legit pitching prospects back, who become top 5 team prospects..... How can de la Rosa be in the Top 10 prospects when he's pitched 61 innings for the Dodgers and has exhausted his rookie eligibility?
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Post by brianthetaoist on Oct 7, 2012 9:53:45 GMT -5
Another guy is more systematic, and pessimistic, though he he does say that "stuff"provides the exceptions: seedlingstostars.com/2012/09/05/minor-league-walk-rates-and-starting-pitchers/"I decided to take a look at any active, qualified pitcher with an adjusted ERA+ at or over 100 (or at or over league average). " "fifty pitchers" "The results were nearly staggering. The average minor league walk rate per nine innings for all pitchers on this list was just 3.172 (the median walk rate was just three walks per nine innings). Only 10 pitchers on the list had a walk rate at or over 4.0, and a number of them have elite, plus-plus stuff (Kerry Wood at 6.2 BB/9, C.C. Sabathia at 4.3 BB/9) while others really changed their careers with the development of new pitches (Tim Hudson at 4 BB/9, Cliff Lee at 4.2 BB/9). In other words, unless you have life-changing stuff or are in the minors for long enough to develop a new pitch, it’s extremely unlikely that a pitcher with an above average walk rate is going to make it as an above-average starting pitcher in the majors." Thanks jioh! That's pretty good, although I disagree with his conclusions. That doesn't really seem like a distribution that screams, "you must have above-average control in the minors to make it!" Fully 20% of the people on his list have a walk rate at or above 4.0. And clearly, Rubby has the "elite, plus-plus stuff" to do it.
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Post by jmei on Oct 7, 2012 14:43:57 GMT -5
It's pretty funny at the lack of publicity De La Rosa and Webster are getting in the Boston media/general fans. They only bring up the dump of $260M, which is great, no doubt. But they got two legit pitching prospects back, who become top 5 team prospects..... How can de la Rosa be in the Top 10 prospects when he's pitched 61 innings for the Dodgers and has exhausted his rookie eligibility? SoxProspects allows for case-by-case exceptions in terms of prospect eligibility, especially for players coming off significant injuries and likely to start in the minor leagues. For instance, Ryan Kalish was ranked on the site entering 2012 even though he had exhausted his rookie eligibility by that point. Here is the relevant excerpt from the "About this Site" page: A player will generally graduate from prospect status once he exhausts his MLB "rookie" status." Rookie status is exhausted once a player: (1) has more than 130 at-bats in the majors; (2) has pitched more than 50 innings in the majors; (3) has been on an active major league roster for more than 45 days (not including September call-ups). The SoxProspects Staff will use discretion if these limits are close at the end of each season. Previously, we also considered a prospect graduated from eligibility once that player turned 26 years old. That rule was changed in September 2010.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 7, 2012 19:51:16 GMT -5
I'm working on getting a couple of scouting reports on Rubby De La Rosa and will have his SoxProspects scouting report updated very soon. I like to see the player first, but because that's not going to happen until next spring and there is a lot of interest I have been reaching out. The changeup has been mentioned as "60+" or plus-to-better so far. I did watch De la Rosa pitch, though it was only a Dodgers game on TV. His stuff is electric, though he was only working with two pitches, the absolutely killer fastball and a change-up that was very good and contrasted starkly with the heat. He used it to great effect, and he was devastating in the two inning I watched, enough so that I looked him up on BR just to get an idea who he was and where he'd come from. So yes, there is hope taoist. He does have that amazing stuff that justifies patience. I'm very pleased that the Sox got both he and Webster - as well as Sands and De Jesus - as "payment" for dumping a quarter billion in salary. It may end up being the steal of the century (one that has a way to go yet). Even with that first-hand look, I'm still not convinced that De la Rosa promises more than Webster. Guys with three usable pitches and a 96-97 mph sinker as the go-to offering are a rare breed.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 7, 2012 22:29:50 GMT -5
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Post by mredsox89 on Oct 8, 2012 13:15:36 GMT -5
It's pretty funny at the lack of publicity De La Rosa and Webster are getting in the Boston media/general fans. They only bring up the dump of $260M, which is great, no doubt. But they got two legit pitching prospects back, who become top 5 team prospects..... How can de la Rosa be in the Top 10 prospects when he's pitched 61 innings for the Dodgers and has exhausted his rookie eligibility? He's listed at #5 on SP, so it was a statement made on that
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