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Trade for Cole Hamels
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 19, 2015 13:59:46 GMT -5
Jerry Crasnick @jcrasnick 33s34 seconds ago Cole Hamels picked a bad time to have back-to-back horrendous starts. #phillies *** Adds to my theory than Hamels won't be moved until the offseason, which gives McPhail more time to self-scout his new team. I wouldn't put too much stock in his last 2 starts. He's pitching for a terrible team and even though we'd all like to think that has no effect, or that he should be motivated by a possible change of scenery, I am sure he is sick of it and that could have an effect on his performance. Your second point has validity.
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Post by arzjake on Jul 19, 2015 14:27:44 GMT -5
Its a catch 22 my friends. Your all right. Margot Devers Owens could be elite, in the same breathe how many good years would Hamels have left. The problem is, it takes so much time to develop these prospects if and when they ever become elite. Your always in a win now mode here in Boston. i don't know what the deals should be. I will say this, if Boston becomes buyers, I would target smaller deals as a Kimbrell or Chapman or perhaps a 1B or OF moving towards 16. I would sell high on Holt, Koji, Bradley and to a lesser extent Victorino and explore the market for sandoval. Honestly, how high of a value do you really anticipate with those guys you mentioned? And who would want Sandoval's bloated contract? Doubtful that selling "high" is a realistic possiblity. IF you listen to the mlb media it's becoming pertinent to find offense.In the grand scheme of things Sandoval deal is not that bad. For god sakes, you want to see a bad contract look at DWright or Votto's deal? 17 18 per for 4 yrs of panda is not that bad. Why does everybody get scared about his deal.. I move Koji tommorrow. It's only a matter of time before swing and miss become HR
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Post by jmei on Jul 19, 2015 14:42:33 GMT -5
Why are you limiting a large part of Hamel's value to the next 3 months? A large part of the value of any pitcher entering his 30s is near-term production. Ignore aging curves at your own risk. Injuries and velo decline are the reality of aging pitchers, and just about every elite pitcher succumbs to it. Halladay, Lee, Verlander, Sabathia, etc. You just hope you get enough value on the front end to offset the inevitable decline. The Red Sox have three fewer months to get that value on the front end than most teams.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 19, 2015 15:16:32 GMT -5
Trying to envision a Hamels trade that works for both teams at this point. Personally, I don't think he's being traded until the offseason and I don't think he's being traded to BOS. I'm thinking the parameters would be Johnson, Castillo, Marrero and an A-ball lottery ticket (thinking Callahan, not a top-100 prospect). I think we have enough depth at OF, LHSP and SS to give up all three. Castillo could be given a real chance to shine in the majors and his contract effectively offsets some of the financial risk for Hamels. Johnson slots into Hamels' spot in the rotation and Marrero can take over 2B in the majors or be PHI's utility man. Also, I would want PHI to pick up enough of Hamels' contract to make it dollar neutral (Hamels vs. Castillo) this year. Hamels will be owed approx $9mm for the rest of the year, plus $23.5mm in 2016-2018, plus his $20mm option/$6mm buyout in 2019 (assuming 400IP option is not triggered). I would consider upgrading the deal to Margot, but I would want PHI to kick in more luxury tax relief this year. I would still rather trade Johnson than Owens, due to upside. I'm not advocating for a Hamels trade, but just thinking about the parameters. I still think the Red Sox should sell off tradeable pieces to get under the luxury tax this year. Johnson, Castillo, Marrero and an A ball prospect like Callahan for Cole Hamels would be a steal for the Sox and there's no way Philly would do that deal. Philly would have to have Margot or Devers come back in that deal and they'd also probably prefer Owens to Johnson. Castillo is a 28 year old and it's questionable how good a major leaguer he could be. Johnson's ceiling is lower than Owens. Yes his floor is higher, but why should the Phils want a guy who has no chance of being better than a 3, and is more likely a back-end starter. At best Marrero is a good field, no hit SS, but with Crawford in the system, would getting Marrero be a priority for them? I just think that package is tilted way too in favor of the Red Sox and if the Phils GM made that deal, whoever he may be in the offseason, I'd be ticked if I were a Phillies fan. If I were Philly I would demand Owens and Margot plus a better A prospect. If not I'd look elsewhere to deal.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 19, 2015 15:18:05 GMT -5
Jerry Crasnick @jcrasnick 33s34 seconds ago Cole Hamels picked a bad time to have back-to-back horrendous starts. #phillies *** Adds to my theory than Hamels won't be moved until the offseason, which gives McPhail more time to self-scout his new team. Surprise, surprise. Maybe they can wait until 2017 or 2018 to trade him because no team will offer enough.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 19, 2015 15:20:12 GMT -5
If I am Philly, I would keep demanding one of bogey, betts or swihart.
I do not see them backing off their initial demands.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 19, 2015 15:20:11 GMT -5
Honestly, how high of a value do you really anticipate with those guys you mentioned? And who would want Sandoval's bloated contract? Doubtful that selling "high" is a realistic possiblity. IF you listen to the mlb media it's becoming pertinent to find offense.In the grand scheme of things Sandoval deal is not that bad. For god sakes, you want to see a bad contract look at DWright or Votto's deal? 17 18 per for 4 yrs of panda is not that bad. Why does everybody get scared about his deal.. I move Koji tommorrow. It's only a matter of time before swing and miss become HR I don't listen to mlb media, but it's not difficult to look at Panda's stat line and see the guy is regressing. If you're looking for offense, I'd look elsewhere. Speaking of bad deals, at least Votto gets on-base pretty well. What does Panda do? If you think it's only a matter of time before Koji becomes Mr. Gopher ball, then do you really think other teams don't think the same thing? That 2016 contract could scare away some teams, and/or lower what they'd want to give back in return. Koji's location has to be perfect, and for the most part it is, but if he misses his spots, something he didn't really do much in 2013, then it's a HR waiting to happen.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 19, 2015 15:21:45 GMT -5
If I am Philly, I would keep demanding one of bogey, betts or swihart. I do not see them backing off their initial demands. That would be dumb on their part. The Sox aren't surrendering their starting SS or their starting CF, both all-star caliber players. Swihart or Vazquez would be a reasonable target for them and the Sox already said no on Swihart. Vazquez, Owens, and Margot with some variability would be a deal I would be looking for if I were the Phillies GM.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 19, 2015 15:22:51 GMT -5
If I am Philly, I would keep demanding one of bogey, betts or swihart. I do not see them backing off their initial demands. Well that's why Hamels will remain in Philly until Amaro retires/is fired. Easiest way to screw up a rebuild is to never trade anyone until they lose all value.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 19, 2015 16:21:52 GMT -5
If I am Philly, I would keep demanding one of bogey, betts or swihart. I do not see them backing off their initial demands. They brought in McPhail to run things, so it is likely that PHI will change their negotiating strategy in the off-season, although perhaps not sooner.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 19, 2015 16:22:49 GMT -5
Buster Olney @buster_ESPN 6m6 minutes ago It's not good for the Phillies that right now, one of the most asked questions in the industry is: Is there something wrong with Hamels?
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 19, 2015 17:34:48 GMT -5
ANAHEIM, Calif. -- Twelve days before the July 31 trading deadline, Boston Red Sox vice president Allard Baird, one of general manager Ben Cherington's top lieutenants, was in Philadelphia Sunday afternoon, his visit coinciding with a start by Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels. Hamels has been prominently linked to the Red Sox ever since Jon Lester chose free agency and signed with the Chicago Cubs. The Phillies have heavily scouted the Red Sox system, but the Phillies' desire to acquire either catcher Blake Swihart in return for the 31-year-old left-hander was a nonstarter. But with a deep farm system, the Red Sox could potentially package other prospects (Manuel Margot, Rafael Devers, Jackie Bradley Jr., Henry Owens) in a bid to acquire Hamels, if he indeed remains on their wish list. Hamels is owed roughly $8 million in salary this season, and a guaranteed $70.5 million over the next three years, plus a $20 million team option or $24 million vesting option in 2019. The Red Sox have expressed a reluctance to make that kind of long-term financial commitment to a pitcher past the age of 30, but with the club's staff ERA at a league-worst 4.39 ERA and Clay Buchholz out with a strained flexor muscle in his right arm, they may be revisiting that position. Hamels, of course, will have a large number of suitors, many of them better positioned to contend for a playoff spot than the Red Sox and thus likely to make offers competitive with anything the Sox put on the table. Hamels did not have a good outing Sunday against the Miami Marlins, allowing eight hits and five runs in three innings. His last start just before the break was even worse—12 hits and 9 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings. His overall ERA is 3.91. espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/45478/red-sox-vp-allard-baird-in-philly-sees-lefty-cole-hamels
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 19, 2015 17:48:01 GMT -5
I'd be so completely pissed off if the Red Sox traded Margot, Devers, JBJ and Owens for Hamels.
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Post by basbal24 on Jul 19, 2015 18:22:06 GMT -5
unless sony gray is the pitcher the one only 1 I would trade is bradley
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Post by arzjake on Jul 19, 2015 18:59:54 GMT -5
IF you listen to the mlb media it's becoming pertinent to find offense.In the grand scheme of things Sandoval deal is not that bad. For god sakes, you want to see a bad contract look at DWright or Votto's deal? 17 18 per for 4 yrs of panda is not that bad. Why does everybody get scared about his deal.. I move Koji tommorrow. It's only a matter of time before swing and miss become HR I don't listen to mlb media, but it's not difficult to look at Panda's stat line and see the guy is regressing. If you're looking for offense, I'd look elsewhere. Speaking of bad deals, at least Votto gets on-base pretty well. What does Panda do? If you think it's only a matter of time before Koji becomes Mr. Gopher ball, then do you really think other teams don't think the same thing? That 2016 contract could scare away some teams, and/or lower what they'd want to give back in return. Koji's location has to be perfect, and for the most part it is, but if he misses his spots, something he didn't really do much in 2013, then it's a HR waiting to happen. You make a valid point. I still say a Team will overpay for a Holt or Koji because there in the moment. Several teams in the hunt and much like last season you find a Team like the O's willing to deal a legit prospect. I disagree on Sandoval. i believe he has value, not to Pitt or KC but to a team with payroll and lets not forget the Panda's playoff track record..
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 19, 2015 19:00:28 GMT -5
I'd be so completely pissed off if the Red Sox traded Margot, Devers, JBJ and Owens for Hamels. I think he was just listing potential chips not suggesting those four as a package.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 19, 2015 20:04:48 GMT -5
I still say a Team will overpay for a Holt or Koji because there in the moment. Several teams in the hunt and much like last season you find a Team like the O's willing to deal a legit prospect. And that's why you trade sell-high guys when you get the chance.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 19, 2015 22:09:12 GMT -5
Holt could probably be of interest to Philly as a young, cost controlled "all star" who could slide into Utley's spot once he's done or fully any hold they wish. I would have no problem having him be part of a Hamels package.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 20, 2015 13:54:01 GMT -5
Holt could probably be of interest to Philly as a young, cost controlled "all star" who could slide into Utley's spot once he's done or fully any hold they wish. I would have no problem having him be part of a Hamels package. "when Utley's done" has already happened, with 25YO switch-hitter Cesar Hernandez playing 2b for the Phillies, stealing bases, and OPSing .715 (down from a high of .771)
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 20, 2015 14:00:47 GMT -5
Holt could probably be of interest to Philly as a young, cost controlled "all star" who could slide into Utley's spot once he's done or fully any hold they wish. I would have no problem having him be part of a Hamels package. "when Utley's done" has already happened, with 25YO switch-hitter Cesar Hernandez playing 2b for the Phillies, stealing bases, and OPSing .715 (down from a high of .771) Doesn't mean Holt wouldn't be an upgrade, especially taking into account his versatility. I don't think any of this is relevant now though, I think Hamels probably goes somewhere else at the deadline and we can stop talking about it hopefully, unless teams are turned off by the past few starts and we can steal him
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 20, 2015 14:30:50 GMT -5
I am really not going to enjoy a full year of Cole Hamels rumors. It's been 10 months... how ya feeling? I really hope this ends in 11 days, I don't think I have enough brain cells to survive another year of this.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 20, 2015 14:48:44 GMT -5
I really hope this ends in 11 days, I don't think I have enough brain cells to survive another year of this. STOP!!!! HAMEL TIME!
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 20, 2015 18:13:43 GMT -5
I think we could still try to go for Hamels so Cherrington can say he did something to make us competitive for 2016. He has to be questioning his job security at this point.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 21, 2015 8:46:12 GMT -5
I think we could still try to go for Hamels so Cherrington can say he did something to make us competitive for 2016. He has to be questioning his job security at this point. I don't think Cherington would be authorized to do that deal just to save his job- it would probably have luxury tax implications, so I'm pretty sure Henry or someone would have to sign off on it. I don't even think he's really on the hot seat from everything that's been said
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 21, 2015 8:59:16 GMT -5
The Sox ownership seem to be involved in the major decisions, and have bought into the develop from within mentality. The ownership essentially signed Moncada with the "go to 31" quote. I doubt they would let BC make a rash move like that to try to save his job. I really don't see his job in jeopardy for at least another year.
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