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Peavy traded to SF for LHP Escobar and RHP Hembree
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 26, 2014 13:05:19 GMT -5
I feel I can comment because I wasn't one of these people. How can you say this with any degree of certainty? We don't know that Ben didn't pull the trigger because the price started to drop. Waiting until the deadline or closer to it does not necessarily mean more desperate teams will give up more. We don't know anything. You can draw a conclusion because we are happy with the package but it's just speculative. There were folks demanding Peavy be DFAed immediately as far back as June. However low you are on Escobar and Hembree, getting that package was well worth keeping Peavy another half-dozen starts. Plus, while it is mostly speculation, I still think it's fair to think that this package was not on the table a few weeks ago. Matt Cain has gone on the DL in the meantime-- I don't think Sabean makes this trade if that injury doesn't open up a rotation spot (the other four are ably handled by Bumgarner, Hudson, Lincecum, and Vogelsong). You are taking this too far Jmei. This is already the 3rd or 4th post you made on the last 2 pages of this topic going over the exact same thing and has others trumpeting the same misconceptions, only now it has taken it to a step worse. I remember seeing people wanting Peavy moved, but not DFA'd, just moved in some kind of deal. Maybe I am wrong. Drew? Maybe there. He hasn't performed and salary will have to be eaten (some). Peavy it was rumored the Cards were willing to pay the entirety of his salary, just not give up anything for his services. Some of us (incl. myself) were wanting Pavy moved a few weeks back so Workman could stick in the rotation, 'tis true. Each start would save the team 400k, give Workman (or Ranaudo) more experience at the MLB level at the same time and -0- guarantees either of these kids ever amount to anything they just got. One just blocks either Owens/Johnson from being promoted regardless. It's a good haul, yes. Would have been better to have happened several weeks ago and even then. Is it better than not taking the other 2.5m the Cards offered?
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Jul 26, 2014 13:05:58 GMT -5
I don't understand Keith Law's logic on this one. How in the hell is Peavy, a guy who is for better or worse a bottom 10-15 starter in the league to date, going to land you a better haul than what we got. I don't see it. Keith Law isn't what you'd call smart.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 26, 2014 13:14:43 GMT -5
New post for Insiders - thoughts on the Giants acquiring Jake Peavy for two fringy pitching prospects: t.co/miovdbYOorSummary please? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Escobar: Low ceiling starter, just in futures game, misleading PCL numbers due to parks and BABIP, Change isnt good enough against righties who haveve hit him hard this year (334/.395/.603) FB: 88-91 lacks too much movement, slider 74-77 very good against lefties, could be a lefty specialist now, Hembree: Fastball is down this year, slider flashes plus. Leaves fastball up too much, homerun prone. Law somehow believes we couldve gotten crick or susac and thinks that SFG did well in the trade. Sounds like a Doubront, Workman/Wilson combo....fringy types depending on who you talk to. S.F. minor league system is not strong. What a glut of pitching we now have. Both assigned to AAA. This is, IMO, the forerunner to moving a lot of pitching in bigger deals. I think that the wick has been lit. ...Sox fireworks not Celtics.
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Post by tomhouse on Jul 26, 2014 13:15:29 GMT -5
Mfl pipeline has Escobar at 7 and Hembree at 17 as Sox prospects.
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Post by jbberlo on Jul 26, 2014 13:19:43 GMT -5
This sounds about right to me, give or take a spot. Hembree seems to be significantly better than britton since he has late inning potential while Britton is more likely to be a 6th or 7th inning guy. Seems like theyd be quite a few spots away from eachother.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 26, 2014 13:21:51 GMT -5
I don't understand Keith Law's logic on this one. How in the hell is Peavy, a guy who is for better or worse a bottom 10-15 starter in the league to date, going to land you a better haul than what we got. I don't see it. Keith Law isn't what you'd call smart. Well, he graduated from Harvard so he isn't what you'd call stupid.......
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 26, 2014 13:23:12 GMT -5
I don't understand Keith Law's logic on this one. How in the hell is Peavy, a guy who is for better or worse a bottom 10-15 starter in the league to date, going to land you a better haul than what we got. I don't see it. Keith Law isn't what you'd call smart. Yeah, apparently huh? Really, really like that we got some value for Peavy- he is probably going to be useful as a starter pitching in the NL West, but we simply have better options here.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 26, 2014 13:23:50 GMT -5
This sounds about right to me, give or take a spot. Hembree seems to be significantly better than britton since he has late inning potential while Britton is more likely to be a 6th or 7th inning guy. Seems like theyd be quite a few spots away from eachother. Britton has looked terrible this year. He has been throwing a ton a beach balls this year.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 26, 2014 13:25:35 GMT -5
Both pitchers are on the 40-man roster also. so does this demand another trade quickly? Or who is a candidate to fall of the Sox 40? We're at 40 now, with 6 to 9 guys left to trade. As long as we get back fewer 40-man guys than we give up, we'll be OK for the time being. We are, however, creating a squeeze for the winter roster.
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Post by artfuldodger on Jul 26, 2014 13:25:38 GMT -5
What was the high point for jose Iglesias on the soxprospects websites?
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,882
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 26, 2014 13:28:04 GMT -5
Escobar: Low ceiling starter, just in futures game, misleading PCL numbers due to parks and BABIP, Change isnt good enough against righties who haveve hit him hard this year (334/.395/.603) FB: 88-91 lacks too much movement, slider 74-77 very good against lefties, could be a lefty specialist now, Hembree: Fastball is down this year, slider flashes plus. Leaves fastball up too much, homerun prone. Law somehow believes we couldve gotten crick or susac and thinks that SFG did well in the trade. Sounds like a Doubront, Workman/Wilson combo....fringy types depending on who you talk to. S.F. minor league system is not strong. What a glut of pitching we now have. Both assigned to AAA. This is, IMO, the forerunner to moving a lot of pitching in bigger deals. I think that the wick has been lit. ...Sox fireworks not Celtics. I thought of Doubront as a comp for Escobar, too. I think KLaw is overthinking the trade: he's saying that he expected Sabean to overpay even more than he did.
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atzar
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Posts: 1,817
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Post by atzar on Jul 26, 2014 13:29:31 GMT -5
What was the high point for jose Iglesias on the soxprospects websites? According to the Rankings History page, he was ranked #2 as of April 1, 2011.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 26, 2014 13:30:15 GMT -5
Keith Law isn't what you'd call smart. Well, he graduated from Harvard so he isn't what you'd call stupid....... I'll reserve judgement on that since it's where a lot of the jokers who helped blow up Wall Street, and then compounded the mistake with shoddy research and bad advice, learned their craft. But I digress.
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Post by jbberlo on Jul 26, 2014 13:31:20 GMT -5
Sounds like a Doubront, Workman/Wilson combo....fringy types depending on who you talk to. S.F. minor league system is not strong. What a glut of pitching we now have. Both assigned to AAA. This is, IMO, the forerunner to moving a lot of pitching in bigger deals. I think that the wick has been lit. ...Sox fireworks not Celtics. I thought of Doubront as a comp for Escobar, too. I think KLaw is overthinking the trade: he's saying that he expected Sabean to overpay even more than he did. Stuff wise Johnson seems like a good comp especially since both did very well in AA.
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Post by redsox4242 on Jul 26, 2014 13:40:42 GMT -5
Man, i love the trade. but would of loved to see the Sox trade Peavy for Kyle Crick. that would of been sweet.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jul 26, 2014 13:42:24 GMT -5
I'm not sure how anyone can be down on this, but it's not surprising coming from a guy like Keith Law.
We got a legit starter prospect (no he isn't a top prospect, but he is still a 3, 4, 5 starter prospect and that has value) and a average floor, average ceiling relief prospect for a guy who was overpaid, terrible and gone in 2 months.
Great return.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 26, 2014 13:49:36 GMT -5
Completely shocked Law tried to be controversial. He is the definition of pretentious.
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Post by 1mpaz10 on Jul 26, 2014 13:59:41 GMT -5
I don't understand Keith Law's logic on this one. How in the hell is Peavy, a guy who is for better or worse a bottom 10-15 starter in the league to date, going to land you a better haul than what we got. I don't see it. Keith Law isn't what you'd call smart. Guys, Keith Law has been known to have opinions different of other experts and talent evaluators, but I think some people are discrediting him a little because you can't see his line of thinking. To be honest about these two prospects they are both future relievers. Escobar can certainly develop into the next Andrew Miller given his splits, but as of now Hembree is nothing to write home about. I see him as being average. Anyway, the true reason for Law making these comments is not the strength of these two prospects, but rather the strength of Peavy. He had a 3.18 ERA in August last year pitching in the AL East ballparks. Imagine how much better he could be in those spacious NL West ballparks. He's very reliable and has had some bad luck this year. He is not a #2-3 starter, but there is still tremendous value to be had in a starter who rarely gets roughed up and mostly kept the Red Sox in a lot of the games he pitched.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 26, 2014 14:03:18 GMT -5
I'll reserve judgement on that since it's where a lot of the jokers who helped blow up Wall Street, and then compounded the mistake with shoddy research and bad advice, learned their craft. But I digress. This is kinda like saying that a baseball owner is a bad owner because his team is losing season after season while he's making huge revenues. But I think I;m getting a bit off topic. Great trade.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 26, 2014 14:03:38 GMT -5
I like the trade, but I understand Law's position, at least I think I do. Peavy is likely to help the Giants more than the two players the Sox got will help the Sox,or would have helped the Giants. The stakes are huge for the Giants and Sabean might have paid more to fill a dire need that he had. And by filling that need he probably gets the Giants into the post-season. That is huge and worth paying a lot for. But he didn't have to pay a lot. In my estimation, he paid a decent value. This is where I disagree with Law a little.
Escobar has had a down season in AAA, his first season in AAA, and in a hitter's league. But not very long ago, they were writing about him being added to the SF rotation. It really will be interesting to see how he does at Pawtucket. I am willing to bet that he does better. From what I have read his ceiling probably is middle of the rotation at best, but that's really good, considering what the Sox had to give up.
Hembree is a crap shoot. He used to throw close to 100 but had trouble getting it over the plate. He has lowered his FB speed to get better control, but his command is not great and so he gives up HRs. He apparently doesn't have a decent second or third pitch, but is said to be developing a slider. He may be Alex Wilson, but there is a chance he is better, and probably a chance worth taking.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 26, 2014 14:07:56 GMT -5
Completely shocked Law tried to be controversial. He is the definition of pretentious. If Law thought that we cleaned up, all the bashers would be saying that he is a sage. It appears to this point that he is something of an outlier and let's hope so. If one looked only at BA pre-season, it would seem that we maxed on Peavy....no real help for us and 2 months to go. But as we know, prospects rise and fall. It appears that we got these 2 because with Hembree, his velocity dropped and with Escobar his performance has not been too good statistically this year. Some reports say that Hembree has one reliable pitch (FB) while others indicate that he also has a sharp slider. Escobar was noted in BA as having a 92-93 FB but as reported above, he was 88-91 without a lot of movement in the Futures game. It would seem that Hembree could help in the BP and Escobar as a back-end starter. Not a mouth-watering haul perhaps but two potentially serviceable pitchers if they aren't traded elsewhere. Don't blink.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jul 26, 2014 14:13:48 GMT -5
Completely shocked Law tried to be controversial. He is the definition of pretentious. If Law thought that we cleaned up, all the bashers would be saying that he is a sage. It appears to this point that he is something of an outlier and let's hope so. If one looked only at BA pre-season, it would seem that we maxed on Peavy....no real help for us and 2 months to go. But as we know, prospects rise and fall. It appears that we got these 2 because with Hembree, his velocity dropped and with Escobar his performance has not been too good statistically this year. Some reports say that Hembree has one reliable pitch (FB) while others indicate that he also has a sharp slider. Escobar was noted in BA as having a 92-93 FB but as reported above, he was 88-91 without a lot of movement in the Futures game. It would seem that Hembree could help in the BP and Escobar as a back-end starter. Not a mouth-watering haul perhaps but two potentially serviceable pitchers if they aren't traded elsewhere. Don't blink. No one has called them a mouth-watering haul. And people aren't calling out Law for his evaluation of the prospects. People are calling out Law because Jake Peavy sucks. Period. He has been one of the worst pitchers in the league this year. Just horrible. The fact that we got ANYTHING for him is insanity, especially since we were going to lose him for nothing in two months anyway. It's a freaking brilliant haul by Cherington because he was able to use the money at his disposal and get something out of nothing.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jul 26, 2014 14:15:07 GMT -5
There were several people here saying dfa Peavy, trade him for nothing for the past month. This was a decent haul for Peavy and hopefully a harbinger of things to come. Imagine what we could get for Lester. Koji.
One would think that there is a good chance we can move some more arms in the right deal. Doubront for example. Or some of these guys in AAA or AA who might be able to help get us some serious hitting prospects. We certainly have pitching depth in the minors.
Man, look at the Phillies situation. The contracts of Lee, Howard, Papelbon, Hamels etc... those guys are in fire sale mode. We did well to get this haul for Peavy but I doubt either of these guys pan out to much. Probable relief talent but for a lot of teams those are cheap free agent signs. Such options are really not of that much value but sometimes a club can be wrong and a guy can turn things around with a new club. Develop a cutter, change knuckle curve or something which sets them apart from where they are now.
I'm happy with this trade. Now what's next? Don't stop now.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 26, 2014 14:22:10 GMT -5
Hembree is a crap shoot. He used to throw close to 100 but had trouble getting it over the plate. He has lowered his FB speed to get better control, but his command is not great and so he gives up HRs. He apparently doesn't have a decent second or third pitch, but is said to be developing a slider. He may be Alex Wilson, but there is a chance he is better, and probably a chance worth taking. (I'm looking up (2013) park factors as I type this, so I don't yet know what conclusion I'm going to draw.) He's given up 0 at home (94 park factor for HR). He's given up 1 each at: Reno (109) Las Vegas (116) New Orleans (94) Round Rock (104) Alburquerque (122) And the HR/PA rate in the PCL this year is 25% higher than in the IL to begin with. And of course these park factors need to be doubled to get the rate in the given park (as opposed to the multiplier to adjust for the player playing half of their games there). So, he's given up his HRs in parks where they are roughly 47%, 65%, 10%, 35%, and 80% more common than in the average IL park.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 26, 2014 14:23:22 GMT -5
My take on Hembree from the reports: - He had one reliable pitch, that killer fastball that came in at 98+
- He got hurt and realized he needed a better breaking stuff
- He developed the slider and it looks like it can be a very good offering also
- He doesn't currently have the command of the secondary offerings to make them effective
So he may in fact have a very good slider, but that's only part of the formula to make it a useful piece. He does, from most of the reports, seem to have good control of his hard stuff. As a side note, after the injury, he's only recently started to tick it back up to 95. We'll see what that means going forward.
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