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Post by moonstone2 on Jul 26, 2014 18:42:02 GMT -5
I don't understand Keith Law's logic on this one. How in the hell is Peavy, a guy who is for better or worse a bottom 10-15 starter in the league to date, going to land you a better haul than what we got. I don't see it. Keith Law is just salty he hasn't ever been offered a GM spot. This isn't the first time I've seen him criticizing a trade for seemingly no reason at all. If your only defense is untrue ad-hominim you have no point. The guy was offered a very important role with the Astros and turned it down because he wanted to see his daughter grow up. I thought a better point was that the Sox should have preferred higher upside arms that are further from the majors. Escobar seems most likely to be a reliever or a back end guy and they have plenty of those. It's almost as if they acquired players who could appear on NESN in September to boost ratings.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 26, 2014 18:48:11 GMT -5
It's really OK to disagree with Law and not call him an idiot, or worse, Yankee homer. If he thinks neither Escobar or Hembree will be worth anything in the future then he is right that the return wasn't good. I happen to disagree. Peavy is worth nothing even this year to the Sox, so ok.
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ianrs
Veteran
Posts: 2,414
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Post by ianrs on Jul 26, 2014 18:54:25 GMT -5
Fixed. As a pointed out elsewhere, he's been better, and in more innings, than Wakefield was in 1995. And Wakefield had a better ERA+ in MLB after his recall than he had had in AAA. (That doesn't prove anything, but it's part of a pattern of the best knuckleball pitchers having an MLE ratio of close to 1.0, as you'd expect from the fact that nobody can hit a good knuckleball, except by luck). Edit: yeah, Webster is starting Sunday, but if they don't give Wright a shot at Lester's slot, objects should be hurled. And that's the guy I'm excited about. Don't get me wrong, I wasn't trying to slight Wright at all by not mentioning him -- I'm a huge fan of a few of the guys in Pawtucket, especially being an RI native and growing up rooting for that team (figures when I leave the state, the upper minors gets an explosion of talent). I would like to see Wright as the guy who gets next crack at the rotation. I think Wright is extremely underrated and can be considered as somewhat of an outlier in terms of the scouting. I think people treat him as an outlier on the other side of the distribution, though - a guy that will implode in the majors, or cause more trouble than he's worth, just due to his nature as a knuckleballer. However I see him as someone who seems to have figured it out and would enjoy an uncanny amount of success if given another chance in the MLB. Especially since Vazquez has experience catching him, which is important, too. A bit more back on topic, here's an interesting Fangraphs piece by Tony Blengino, explaining how Escobar's age-advancement compares favorably to some other pitchers who have enjoyed recent success in the majors, including Jake Odorizzi, Yordano Ventura, Ricky Nolasco, Jon Niese and Matt Garza.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jul 26, 2014 18:58:08 GMT -5
I don't like his personality, but Law is impartial. I don't think he gives biased ratings on anybody really besides being stubborn with his opinions occasionally. All that you can really ask from a writer is that they defend their opinions with facts and clear baseball knowledge. I mean Dan Shaughnassy writes countless articles where he makes claims based on little factual information or that make it clear he has no clue what he's talking about. When challenged he throws up his hands and says it's just my opinion. Law, Callis, Parks, and even our own Chris Hatfield do a good job with that. 20 years ago writers like them were non existant. We should thank our lucky stars they are around as opposed to personally attacking them when they don't think the home team is perfect. Or perhaps you would prefer to be stuck with what Nick Cafardo thinks.
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Post by bjb406 on Jul 26, 2014 19:11:16 GMT -5
well, he might be one of the 10-15 worst among pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, but that constitutes only 93 of the 150 rotation slots in the league. He hasn't been great, but he still has value. That being said, I agree Kieth Law is an idiot and always has been. And to the person who said he is smart for going to Harvard, I wonder how many people you have met who went to Harvard, they are not all as smart as you think.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 26, 2014 19:38:05 GMT -5
The uninformed people are the ones suggesting Jake Peavy was anything better than one of the worst 10-15 pitchers in the league this year.[/quote] well, he might be one of the 10-15 worst among pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, but that constitutes only 93 of the 150 rotation slots in the league. He hasn't been great, but he still has value. That being said, I agree Kieth Law is an idiot and always has been. And to the person who said he is smart for going to Harvard, I wonder how many people you have met who went to Harvard, they are not all as smart as you think.[/quote] C'mon man! I have heard that Law is a Yankee fan (anti Red Sox) forever! Let's see what happens. My 'feeling' is that we have average pitchers in return but may have a chance at unexpected upside. That is probably more than we could expect.
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Post by Gwell55 on Jul 26, 2014 19:43:31 GMT -5
The uninformed people are the ones suggesting Jake Peavy was anything better than one of the worst 10-15 pitchers in the league this year.[/quote] well, he might be one of the 10-15 worst among pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, but that constitutes only 93 of the 150 rotation slots in the league. He hasn't been great, but he still has value. That being said, I agree Kieth Law is an idiot and always has been. And to the person who said he is smart for going to Harvard, I wonder how many people you have met who went to Harvard, they are not all as smart as you think.[/quote] When you add in his 14.5 million salary he is approaching a disastrous flop for this year and that is what counts in the real world. After all would you rather have that cost or a arb eligible for a mill or so. And your right about Harvard there have been a few disasters that graduated from there like both obamas.
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Post by jclmontana on Jul 26, 2014 19:46:23 GMT -5
It's almost as if they acquired players who could appear on NESN in September to boost ratings. What? In what universe are Escobar and Hembree potential draws on NESN? Outside of prospect-land, they are nobodies.
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Post by jmei on Jul 26, 2014 19:50:21 GMT -5
This tangent has gone on long enough. Let's keep this thread on-topic. I will be deleting any future posts about Keith Law. Feel free to start a topic about it in the Off-Topic or Throwdown forums if you feel you really must continue this line of discussion.
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Post by pedey on Jul 26, 2014 20:49:02 GMT -5
Impossible to argue with this trade. Peavy was barely mediocre at best. The Giants did the Sox a favor with this trade. Opens a rotation spot for a young guy, and two decent arms with upside are coming to Boston. I think this was a great trade on Cherington's part.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 26, 2014 22:55:33 GMT -5
I think the Sox did as well as they could. They got at worst two relievers or a back end starter and a reliever with a chance to be an 8th inning guy or even a closer, so they got something of value for a declining starter they had no need for and were going to lose in a month and half (and not want back anyways).
I'll admit, I was more excited about the possibility of getting that Rowan Wick kid from St. Louis who has been hitting a bunch of home runs, but I can't blame St. Louis for not wanting to give up a kid with chance of being a power hitter in the majors for Peavy.
Given those circumstances the Sox got some pieces. I imagine Escobar will be another guy in the Webster/De La Rosa/Ranaudo/Barnes grouping that they throw on the wall and see what sticks.
With Miller, Badenhop, Breslow, and Uehara most likely gone next year, the Sox will have room for Hembree who can yoyo back and forth between Pawtucket and Boston next year.
Meanwhile I wish Jake Peavy good luck. He seemed like a good teammate, a class act, and a guy who I'm happy got to experience, enjoy, and seemingly appreciate very much, a World Championship in Boston. The Giants' ballpark will suit his style better and his long fly balls might stay in the park a little more often, and he won't have a DH to face, and he might actually have an offense capable of actually scoring a run for him. And he goes from last to first.
I'll be rooting for Jake Peavy's Giants to beat Adrian Gonzalez's and Carl Crawford's Dodgers.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jul 27, 2014 10:15:17 GMT -5
This tangent has gone on long enough. Let's keep this thread on-topic. I will be deleting any future posts about Keith Law. Feel free to start a topic about it in the Off-Topic or Throwdown forums if you feel you really must continue this line of discussion. Okay but I would like to discuss one of the better points he made in the article....which no one seems to want to address thus far. Escobar is a low upside guy, though one who has a good chance to help the major league team next year. I think's it's reasonable to ask if they could have replaced Escobar with a riskier prospect who was further away from the majors but has higher upside. The Red Sox have a lot of pitchers like Escobar at the upper levels of the minors. What they system really cries out for is more higher upside arms in the lower minors. Players who wouldn't be able to help in 2015 but at least have a chance to be stars for you by the end of the decade. Added reasons to do this were that it would free up a 40 man roster spot over the winter and would have cleared a path for Owens to go to AAA. Law specifically mentioned Keury Mella and Luis Ysila. Mella is a work in progress and has the highest ceiling in the organization. Already sits at 94 and has a good curve throws a changeup too. Video below. Ysila is older, less refined and comes with less of a pedigree than Mella. But he has still been the Greenjackets best pitcher this year and reportedly can get it up to 97. Both guys are obviously riskier than Escobar who could probably do Craig Breslow's job today. Plus they won't be in Fenway in 2015 unless they buy a ticket. But they both have higher upsides which you could argue fill an organizational need more than Escobar does.
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Post by kman22 on Jul 27, 2014 10:19:46 GMT -5
This tangent has gone on long enough. Let's keep this thread on-topic. I will be deleting any future posts about Keith Law. Feel free to start a topic about it in the Off-Topic or Throwdown forums if you feel you really must continue this line of discussion. Okay but I would like to discuss one of the better points he made in the article....which no one seems to want to address thus far. Escobar is a low upside guy, though one who has a good chance to help the major league team next year. I think's it's reasonable to ask if they could have replaced Escobar with a riskier prospect who was further away from the majors but has higher upside. The Red Sox have a lot of pitchers like Escobar at the upper levels of the minors. What they system really cries out for is more higher upside arms in the lower minors. Players who wouldn't be able to help in 2015 but at least have a chance to be stars for you by the end of the decade. Added reasons to do this were that it would free up a 40 man roster spot over the winter and would have cleared a path for Owens to go to AAA. Law specifically mentioned Keury Mella and Luis Ysila. Mella is a work in progress and has the highest ceiling in the organization. Already sits at 94 and has a good curve throws a changeup too. Video below. Ysila is older, less refined and comes with less of a pedigree than Mella. But he has still been the Greenjackets best pitcher this year and reportedly can get it up to 97. Both guys are obviously riskier than Escobar who could probably do Craig Breslow's job today. Plus they won't be in Fenway in 2015 unless they buy a ticket. But they both have higher upsides which you could argue fill an organizational need more than Escobar does. If you want to label these two prospects as safer options, couldn't that allow them to seek higher risk, higher reward options in other trades?
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Post by oleary25 on Jul 27, 2014 11:30:59 GMT -5
It seems like most of you are gamblers by nature. I'd rather have the more proven talent than a lottery ticket. The job of a GM is to get Big league players to help the Red Sox wether it's through trade, draft, or free agency. These guys seem fairly safe to make it to the majors. Also whose to say Escobar, and Hembree couldn't end up as part of a bigger deal, or be contributors to the club? Anytime you can get young cost controlled assets to the majors it's a great thing. My hats off to Ben great job as always.
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Post by michael on Jul 27, 2014 12:41:10 GMT -5
IMNSHO the Sox accomplished the following: Saved $2.5M Opened a spot in the rotation for another AAA prospect Accrued 2 AAA pitchers of reasonable quality. Maybe ML Ability or not. Had to make no drops to accommodate the 40 man roster Gave a genuinly good guy a chance at a ring.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jul 27, 2014 15:46:07 GMT -5
This tangent has gone on long enough. Let's keep this thread on-topic. I will be deleting any future posts about Keith Law. Feel free to start a topic about it in the Off-Topic or Throwdown forums if you feel you really must continue this line of discussion. Okay but I would like to discuss one of the better points he made in the article....which no one seems to want to address thus far. Escobar is a low upside guy, though one who has a good chance to help the major league team next year. I think's it's reasonable to ask if they could have replaced Escobar with a riskier prospect who was further away from the majors but has higher upside. The Red Sox have a lot of pitchers like Escobar at the upper levels of the minors. What they system really cries out for is more higher upside arms in the lower minors. Players who wouldn't be able to help in 2015 but at least have a chance to be stars for you by the end of the decade. Added reasons to do this were that it would free up a 40 man roster spot over the winter and would have cleared a path for Owens to go to AAA. Law specifically mentioned Keury Mella and Luis Ysila. Mella is a work in progress and has the highest ceiling in the organization. Already sits at 94 and has a good curve throws a changeup too. Video below. Ysila is older, less refined and comes with less of a pedigree than Mella. But he has still been the Greenjackets best pitcher this year and reportedly can get it up to 97. Both guys are obviously riskier than Escobar who could probably do Craig Breslow's job today. Plus they won't be in Fenway in 2015 unless they buy a ticket. But they both have higher upsides which you could argue fill an organizational need more than Escobar does. This whole post, and Law bringing those two names up ignores the fact that they may not have been available for someone as bad as Jake Peavy.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jul 27, 2014 15:55:31 GMT -5
Cherington said they are retooling as fast as they can for 2015. This trade seems to confirm that. I have no problem at all with Law's contention but that is not what Cherington intends to do. They want to contend next year. They are the Redsox dammit!
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 27, 2014 16:06:44 GMT -5
how are they going to fit the relievers on their Pawsox roster? Guess it only adds one player net.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 27, 2014 16:21:06 GMT -5
This trade makes a lot of sense for everyone involved. Peavy has had success in the NL, he still strikes people out, and is going to a park that will suppress the home runs. He's probably a #4 starter right now, but the Giants are a pretty legit contender and need an arm.
The Red Sox got two prospects who move into their top 20 for a pitcher who isn't having a great season and wasn't in the 2015 plan.
Peavy earned a ring in Boston and gets to pitch for a chance for another. He's also in a better spot to finish the year strong before he hits free agency.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 27, 2014 17:38:58 GMT -5
Video of Hembree from three years ago, pitching for San Jose the Giants' A+ affiliate...
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Post by moonstone2 on Jul 27, 2014 23:13:48 GMT -5
You know as I was writing the post I thought to myself, some guy is going to say that we don't know "for sure" that Mella or Ysila could have replaced Escobar in the trade.
There are some posters on this board who get all up in arms if you attempt to infer anything at all and quite frankly I am tired of it. Look this is a message board about sports. Not a Supreme Court brief. It's fair to infer things that we don't know "for sure" based upon already known facts.
In this case Cherrington made it clear that they are pursuing players who might be able to help the team in 2015. It's fair to assume that they are doing so at the expense of higher upside players who wouldn't be able to help in 2015, but might help in 2017 or 2018. It's also safe to assume that they could have replaced Escobar in the trade with such a player who isn't as highly ranked today as Escobar is. Can't we just assume for the purposes of the message board that either player was available? I mean seriously do we need absolute proof for every single assumption made on a sports message board
The Red Sox already have 7 or 8 pitchers at AA and AAA who most project as #3 starters at best. How does having one more really help? Meanwhile they have just one starter in full season ball whom you can dream on being at the top of a major league rotation and he's not having a good year. Mella or Ysila would be the Red Sox best pitcher in Greenville by far.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jul 28, 2014 0:04:20 GMT -5
You know as I was writing the post I thought to myself, some guy is going to say that we don't know "for sure" that Mella or Ysila could have replaced Escobar in the trade. There are some posters on this board who get all up in arms if you attempt to infer anything at all and quite frankly I am tired of it. Look this is a message board about sports. Not a Supreme Court brief. It's fair to infer things that we don't know "for sure" based upon already known facts. In this case Cherrington made it clear that they are pursuing players who might be able to help the team in 2015. It's fair to assume that they are doing so at the expense of higher upside players who wouldn't be able to help in 2015, but might help in 2017 or 2018. It's also safe to assume that they could have replaced Escobar in the trade with such a player who isn't as highly ranked today as Escobar is. Can't we just assume for the purposes of the message board that either player was available? I mean seriously do we need absolute proof for every single assumption made on a sports message board The Red Sox already have 7 or 8 pitchers at AA and AAA who most project as #3 starters at best. How does having one more really help? Meanwhile they have just one starter in full season ball whom you can dream on being at the top of a major league rotation and he's not having a good year. Mella or Ysila would be the Red Sox best pitcher in Greenville by far. It's also fair to infer that Jake Peavy sucks. It's also fair to infer that a team probably doesn't open up it's wallet and say here take what you want. It's also fair to infer that teams don't trade high ceiling arms, even if they are lottery tickets in the low minors for shitty pitchers with 2 months left on their contract. Wake up and smell the damn coffee. But go ahead and assume whatever the hell you want to assume. It doesn't matter to me. I'll assume what I want to assume too. That the Red Sox were just happy to get something for their garbage.
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Post by sammo420 on Jul 28, 2014 3:57:59 GMT -5
Instead of going with the low minors lottery tickets I think they're buying low on two players that could turn it around, the odds aren't much different. I think it's as simple as buying low and hopefully selling high.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Jul 28, 2014 5:40:31 GMT -5
I think the interest in Escobar was likely as a relief arm or as a trade chip. I have my doubts Hembree will develop into much of anything. Escobar is probably a chip used for Stanton. I think Ben keeps Hembree though. To be honest I think he's going to turn into something better than Matt Albers. We will probably see him in August so the wait shouldn't be long.
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Post by jmei on Jul 28, 2014 7:18:41 GMT -5
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