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nomar
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Posts: 10,700
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Sam Travis
Jul 26, 2014 15:11:02 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by nomar on Jul 26, 2014 15:11:02 GMT -5
I think Kukuk will at least be a good reliever (hello Andrew Miller). Always have loved his potential. Good to see him pounding the zone, but I'll be more convinced when he does it more a few months straight. Travis is hardly even a prospect. Lack of walks and power from a corner infielder.He's a 2nd rounder with 130 at bats in which he hasn't looked bad. I wouldn't quite go there yet. He is still absolutely a prospect. How about we give him more than a month and a half before we go saying this... As for Kukuk, he was my favorite pick in the draft year. Gotta love projectable lefties with a nice fastball! Hopefully his newly discovered control is a permanent thing, that would sure be something. He can feel free to prove me wrong. I don't see much potential in him at all though.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 27, 2014 7:31:51 GMT -5
I think Kukuk will at least be a good reliever (hello Andrew Miller). Always have loved his potential. Good to see him pounding the zone, but I'll be more convinced when he does it more a few months straight. Travis is hardly even a prospect. Lack of walks and power from a corner infielder. LOL, research much ??
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,700
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Post by nomar on Jul 27, 2014 18:47:00 GMT -5
I think Kukuk will at least be a good reliever (hello Andrew Miller). Always have loved his potential. Good to see him pounding the zone, but I'll be more convinced when he does it more a few months straight. Travis is hardly even a prospect. Lack of walks and power from a corner infielder. LOL, research much ?? Ok genius please show me anything that suggests we should be hopeful of him as a 1B. Most people thought he'd play 3B. He doesn't profile to have the bat for 1B. I don't care that he was drafted in the 2nd round, that's meaningless. Strictly looking at Travis as a player. His approach hasn't been great, scouting reports say he has a level swing (not power-friendly) and he hasn't hit for power while being pretty old for a prospect in Lowell.
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Post by Don Caballero on Jul 27, 2014 19:11:31 GMT -5
Ok genius please show me anything that suggests we should be hopeful of him as a 1B. Most people thought he'd play 3B. He doesn't profile to have the bat for 1B. I don't care that he was drafted in the 2nd round, that's meaningless. Strictly looking at Travis as a player. His approach hasn't been great, scouting reports say he has a level swing (not power-friendly) and he hasn't hit for power while being pretty old for a prospect in Lowell. So let me get this straight: it doesn't matter where he was drafted or his pre-draft scouting reports and the fact that he was quite decently ranked by BA amongst all available prospect, but instead what matters is what you think about his approach and what he's done thus far in his debut in pro ball. Gotcha.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jul 27, 2014 19:20:41 GMT -5
Ok genius please show me anything that suggests we should be hopeful of him as a 1B. Most people thought he'd play 3B. He doesn't profile to have the bat for 1B. I don't care that he was drafted in the 2nd round, that's meaningless. Strictly looking at Travis as a player. His approach hasn't been great, scouting reports say he has a level swing (not power-friendly) and he hasn't hit for power while being pretty old for a prospect in Lowell. Most people thought he would play 3B? Who? Perhaps someone mentioned it as a possibility, but he's always been viewed as 1B since he was drafted. He doesn't profile as a 1B? Just the fact that he was drafted a month ago with a high pick shows the Red Sox organization disagrees with you. His approach hasn't been great? Based on what exactly? One month in the NY-Penn league? Old? He's not yet 21, which means he's younger than average for the NY-Penn league.
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Post by trotsdirtyhat on Jul 27, 2014 19:50:40 GMT -5
Edit: nevermind. I thought there was a disconnect because Sam Travis and Travis Shaw were being confused, but I just re-read more closely.
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Post by jmei on Jul 27, 2014 19:52:56 GMT -5
Ok genius please show me anything that suggests we should be hopeful of him as a 1B. Most people thought he'd play 3B. He doesn't profile to have the bat for 1B. I don't care that he was drafted in the 2nd round, that's meaningless. Strictly looking at Travis as a player. His approach hasn't been great, scouting reports say he has a level swing (not power-friendly) and he hasn't hit for power while being pretty old for a prospect in Lowell. This is even worse than the Trey Ball/bust stuff. Travis hasn't even hit poorly; he has a .294/.331/.406 (115 wRC+) line with a super-low strikeout rate (11.2%) in 152 plate appearances, and he was one of the youngest college draft picks in this year's class. There's also literally only one post-draft scouting report on Travis, from Chris Mellen at BP, and it's not even that negative. Here's an excerpt of his report: It's fair to personally think that he's not a major leaguer-- that's a perfectly defensible opinion considering the high offensive bar at first base (where he'll likely end up). But to call him not a prospect is going too far IMO.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 27, 2014 20:16:22 GMT -5
In that piece on Longhi that was around a week or two ago, there was a mention of Travis as being one of the real power guys on the Lowell team. I got the impression that he is very highly regarded by the manager and players there.
It is silly to be making any judgments of players this early in their careers. Baseball is always a game of streaks. If you look at any player you will see they hit very well and very poorly in bunches. A guy may hit .450 for a few games and .050 for a few games. Everything is new for these players. The adjustments they have to make I think are astounding.
Also, the competition is very uneven. They are playing against players just like themselves, sometimes confused, sometimes feeling overwhelmed, and sometimes feeling like they are on top of the world. The perfect example of not judging a player this early is Moookie Betts. He had an OPS of .658 with no HRs at Lowell.
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Post by jmei on Jul 27, 2014 20:57:51 GMT -5
My issue is with the level of certainty implicit in your first post. You're declaring a guy "hardly even a prospect" a month after he was drafted in the second round. He signed for slot, and all the pre-draft publications ranked him around where he was drafted, so he's certainly not a draft-high-and-save-money kind of pick. It's just too early to make even semi-definitive proclamations about his future.
More substantively, I don't get why you're knocking his bat that much. He's flashed well above-average contact ability and is reported to have a mature approach (despite the lack of walks). He hasn't flashed much power in his 150-odd plate appearances so far, but was reported to have above-average raw power that he had occasionally flashed in-game. For me, he projects to be something like Travis Shaw-- probably not a first-division starter, but maybe a second-division guy, and certainly a legit prospect worth following.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,700
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Post by nomar on Jul 28, 2014 0:02:56 GMT -5
When I said "prospect" I didn't mean literally. I just don't think he's one to keep tabs on daily. It's a phrase that I see Law use ("not a prospect"), but admittedly I know it sounds harsh and I'm not big on Law to begin with.
I didn't think he was promising at the time he was drafted either though, so I'm not basing this off of one bad month. His approach has been worse than advertised and he's likely making hard contact but not for power. Aside from an impressive contact rate, he's been pretty unimpressive. He's a guy with college experience and a filled out frame and he's posting close to average 1B offensive numbers in A- ball. Given the fact that his bat is going to have to carry him to the big leagues, it doesn't look good for him right now.
Obviously anything can happen, he could be the next great Boston 1B. I'm not saying we shouldn't have taken him either. He's just not one to get excited about at this point.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jul 28, 2014 0:09:41 GMT -5
When I said "prospect" I didn't mean literally. I just don't think he's one to keep tabs on daily. It's a phrase that I see Law use ("not a prospect"), but admittedly I know it sounds harsh and I'm not big on Law to begin with. I didn't think he was promising at the time he was drafted either though, so I'm not basing this off of one bad month. His approach has been worse than advertised and he's likely making hard contact but not for power. Aside from an impressive contact rate, he's been pretty unimpressive. He's a guy with college experience and a filled out frame and he's posting close to average 1B offensive numbers in A- ball. Given the fact that his bat is going to have to carry him to the big leagues, it doesn't look good for him right now. Obviously anything can happen, he could be the next great Boston 1B. I'm not saying we shouldn't have taken him either. He's just not one to get excited about at this point. I take it you are one of the many scouts who watch the Lowell Spinners night in and night out? That's the only justification I can see for some of these outrageous claims.
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Post by mattpicard on Jul 28, 2014 0:46:35 GMT -5
When I said "prospect" I didn't mean literally. I just don't think he's one to keep tabs on daily. It's a phrase that I see Law use ("not a prospect"), but admittedly I know it sounds harsh and I'm not big on Law to begin with. I didn't think he was promising at the time he was drafted either though, so I'm not basing this off of one bad month. His approach has been worse than advertised and he's likely making hard contact but not for power. Aside from an impressive contact rate, he's been pretty unimpressive. He's a guy with college experience and a filled out frame and he's posting close to average 1B offensive numbers in A- ball. Given the fact that his bat is going to have to carry him to the big leagues, it doesn't look good for him right now. Obviously anything can happen, he could be the next great Boston 1B. I'm not saying we shouldn't have taken him either. He's just not one to get excited about at this point. You're really jumping the gun here -- the guy's barely had any time to get his feet wet, so there's hardly any real evaluation to be made (from a just looking at his stats perspective) after just 152 PA. Not trying to draw anything substantive here, as I'm just arbitrarily choosing a starting point, but let's say that he deserves a few games to adjust to his first ever experience playing in pro ball: If we cut out Travis' first 7 games (.167/.167/.200, 0/4 BB/K, 1 XBH), and looked only at his line in 27 games since (121 PA) -- .327/.372/.460, 4/13 BB/K, 7 XBH -- I wonder if you'd be a bit more reserved with your sharp skepticism of considering him a legitimate prospect?
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Post by sdiaz1 on Jul 28, 2014 1:09:31 GMT -5
When I said "prospect" I didn't mean literally. I just don't think he's one to keep tabs on daily. It's a phrase that I see Law use ("not a prospect"), but admittedly I know it sounds harsh and I'm not big on Law to begin with. I didn't think he was promising at the time he was drafted either though, so I'm not basing this off of one bad month. His approach has been worse than advertised and he's likely making hard contact but not for power. Aside from an impressive contact rate, he's been pretty unimpressive. He's a guy with college experience and a filled out frame and he's posting close to average 1B offensive numbers in A- ball. Given the fact that his bat is going to have to carry him to the big leagues, it doesn't look good for him right now. Obviously anything can happen, he could be the next great Boston 1B. I'm not saying we shouldn't have taken him either. He's just not one to get excited about at this point. Let me get this straight: So other than the fact that he has shown an ability to make frequent hard contact, he has been pretty disappointing. You do realize that A) an offense first prospect's most important tool is their hit skill, which you just rated as plus and B) that as 20 year old in short season ball both his power and plate discipline should be in need of further development and projection. Honestly, I do not know a whole lot about Sam Travis other than reports about him prior to the draft, scouting reports filed by the staff here and his stat page, all of which is limited seeing as how he has only about a month of playing time in affiliated ball. Because of this I would be foolish to label him as anything rather than an interesting guy with a solid pedigree and skills that made him a consensus top 100 draft prospect. I know we all love to have opinions and such, but unless one is major league scout assigned the NYPL, then any opinion you have is incredibly limited and imperfect. Is it cool to express concern that he is drawing so few walks? Of course. But to substantively label him as a non-prospect is cockamamie drivel.
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Post by jchang on Jul 28, 2014 6:31:55 GMT -5
I think it is a seriously bad approach to dismiss any prospect who does not project to be great, presumably all-star or perhaps grade 6.5 and above. Of the newly released MLB Top 100, only 4 have grade 7+, 18 6.5+, 39 6+, and that (mostly) comprises draft classes 2010-2013. Only two members of the 2013 draft are in the top 20(?) and the top two members of 14 are #24 & 27. For every All-Star or better, there are 14 other players on 25-man and 24 players on the 40-man rosters. Getting two players good enough to make the 25-man roster is good plus a few more guys who can hang around AAA is a reasonable success. Few prospects get a grade 6+ at draft time, it is more likely prospects rise up to grade 6.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,700
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Sam Travis
Jul 28, 2014 10:08:16 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by nomar on Jul 28, 2014 10:08:16 GMT -5
I don't consider it dismissing him. I think someone nailed it when they compared him to Shaw. He'll like be right on par with Shaw in terms of importance to the system. This was the case the second he got drafted too IMO. His performance this year hasn't made me think less of him, but it hasn't given me more faith in him. Kick him to the curb? Obviously not. But he's not someone with a great shot to contribute to the big league club at this point. Hopefully that changes.
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Post by jchang on Jul 28, 2014 10:25:11 GMT -5
I don't think TS and ST are comparable at all. TS was scouted from the beginning as having average bat speed that would get tested at the upper levels. His great stats in A and A+ did not get him into the top 20, and after sub-par 2012 and 13 in AA, he might have dropped out of the top 60. Even now with his great year, his ceiling is still 5, average MLB player, perhaps a 2nd div starter. ST started out rated at 20 and has a ceiling grade of 7.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 1, 2014 7:30:20 GMT -5
In between the most recent post in this thread and today, Travis went 12 for 18 and got promoted to Greenville.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 1, 2014 8:08:54 GMT -5
His low number of walks kind of surprised me for a college player. I asked Ian Cundall on twitter about him and he said that Sam has pitch recognition skills. Is able to work the count until he gets his pitch to hit and attacks it. That's a relief. The low strikeouts are a good sign too. Maybe, another Allen Craig:)
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Post by sibbysisti on Aug 1, 2014 9:18:29 GMT -5
First base used to be a barren waste in this org. Now, with Travis, the other Travis, Witte and Chester there appears to be a little hope.
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 1, 2014 9:20:43 GMT -5
He's a prospect now! Yay!
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Post by suttree on Aug 1, 2014 10:43:40 GMT -5
Oh Rizzo, how I miss you.
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Post by ibsmith85 on Aug 1, 2014 11:30:01 GMT -5
In between the most recent post in this thread and today, Travis went 12 for 18 and got promoted to Greenville. Is this true? I cant find it anywhere.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 1, 2014 11:39:44 GMT -5
It was posted in yesterday's game thread FYI. Also,
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,700
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Post by nomar on Aug 1, 2014 11:51:49 GMT -5
His lack of walks and power is going to catch up with him still. I'm more impressed by Witte than him at this point. Well see if those areas kick into gear in Greenville.
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Post by Jonathan Singer on Aug 1, 2014 12:03:16 GMT -5
His lack of walks and power is going to catch up with him still. I'm more impressed by Witte than him at this point. Well see if those areas kick into gear in Greenville. I'm not. I'd take Travis over him and believe he will pass him pretty quickly in the system.
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