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Post by lennsakata on Jul 31, 2014 9:27:32 GMT -5
Just seems less relevant, doesn't it? You see his .767 OPS this year and you look back at last year's .737 and say that's a good, sizeable and the most recent sample. Besides it becomes a little easier to exploit a guy after you get a book on him. Would you really argue his last 900 at bats is not a large enough sample? Oh okay, I see we are just arbitrarily manipulating the stats to back up your own point. That's cool. I'll end the conversation that. Not really worth discussing if that is what we are doing. 900 at bats is a considerable trend...is it manipulating the stats to look at someone's last 900 consecutive at bats over a clean start to a season, see a .750 OPS and not be impressed with the player? If it makes you feel better....not psyhced about getting one year of player control for an outfielder with a .788 Career OPS (which is trending down after a spectacular rookie season at age 26)
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,966
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Post by jimoh on Jul 31, 2014 9:27:40 GMT -5
One online source www.parkfactors.com/OAK lists their park factor as 86 (93R, 78HR), while Fenway is 105. People have mentioned the foul territory: do we have the least and they the most? I'd like to hear from people smarter than I on this (ample supply!)
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Post by wildcardwillie on Jul 31, 2014 9:29:44 GMT -5
Cespedes + Lackey + _________ (fill in blank) for Stanton?
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 31, 2014 9:29:48 GMT -5
I'm not excited with the return, but I'm slowly warming to it. Honestly I'm more excited about the draft pick than Cespedes, but unless we were going to get a Bundy, Pederson/Peterson, Seager, Walker type, which we clearly weren't or else we'd have pulled the trigger on it, then this is a better return than keeping Lester and getting the draft pick, or keeping Lester and resigning him. (Assuming that we can resign him after we traded him)
Therefore I'll be happy with this trade if we resign Lester and extend (or trade) Cespedes. The added benefit of this deal that I'm not sure anyone has mentioned is that losing Lester allows us to suck even harder (pause) so that we can really earn a protected pick in the draft, allowing us to sign a qualified offer free agent, or further increase our draft pool and have fewer teams picking in front of us.
In a vacuum, I'm not happy with the deal, but if you think about the alternatives and what was likely available, I think that Ben made a good move. It's more about other GM's not caving in than it is about Ben making a mistake.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,966
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Post by jimoh on Jul 31, 2014 9:30:06 GMT -5
Nice to grab this guy the day before our private workout with Rusney Castillo.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jul 31, 2014 9:30:29 GMT -5
Cespedes + Lackey + _________ (fill in blank) for Stanton? Swihart and Owens
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Post by trotnixonforever on Jul 31, 2014 9:30:31 GMT -5
Cespedes has hit more HRs this year then all Red Sox OFs combined. Just wanted to make sure that was clear to the people who say we need to get a bat still.
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Post by theburn on Jul 31, 2014 9:30:45 GMT -5
Rotoworld calls Oakland the most pitcher friendly park in baseball. Lester should be one happy camper with this move and it's not like they will re sign him. Gotta belive Cespede's numbers go up in Fenway. 2014 Cespedes Home: OBP .309/SLG .481/OPS .790 Away: .298 /.448 /.746
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Post by elguapo on Jul 31, 2014 9:31:23 GMT -5
900 at bats is a considerable trend...is it manipulating the stats to look at someone's last 900 consecutive at bats over a clean start to a season, see a .750 OPS and not be impressed with the player? Obviously that's a fine sample to look at. But I think to fairly assess Cespedes we need to go beyond OPS. I love it as a shorthand metric but for any kind of robust analysis we need to look at park-adjusted metrics relative to league-wide production. Plus defensive value.
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Post by buffs4444 on Jul 31, 2014 9:31:46 GMT -5
Wonder why the rush, with six hours to go before the deadline? Most likely BC wants to focus on the other deals (Lackey, Miller) and knew he wasn't going to bring back a Bundy-type prospect. Also, Cespedes is a perfect piece for the offseason. Henceforth, all posts in the Stanton/Trade Subforum thread should include Cespedes (+cash), WMB, + ...... See you this winter, Giancarlo....
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 31, 2014 9:33:28 GMT -5
Warming to this deal. Cespedes is a good player at a position of need who seems tailor-made for Fenway. Optimistic about our chances of signing him beyond 2015 if we choose to do so. The draft pick is a decent little throw-in. Also, we put Lester in a place where he's very unlikely to resign, so the chance to grab him back up in the offseason is as alive as it was ever going to be.That's really the key here. If Lester signs elsewhere, this is a reasonable trade. But if the Red Sox can bring him back, then that's just ridiculous. You're getting a good, established player at a position of need basically for free, plus the draft pick/money.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jul 31, 2014 9:34:02 GMT -5
Oh okay, I see we are just arbitrarily manipulating the stats to back up your own point. That's cool. I'll end the conversation that. Not really worth discussing if that is what we are doing. 900 at bats is a considerable trend...is it manipulating the stats to look at someone's last 900 consecutive at bats over a clean start to a season, see a .750 OPS and not be impressed with the player? If it makes you feel better....not psyhced about getting one year of player control for an outfielder with a .788 Career OPS (which is trending down after a spectacular rookie season at age 26) It is absolutely manipulating the stats, because 900 ABs or 2 seasons is just completely arbitrary. There is no reason for you to select that as the cut off date for looking at his stats other than the fact that his only other year in the MLB skews the stats to not fit your argument.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 31, 2014 9:34:03 GMT -5
Wonder why the rush, with six hours to go before the deadline? Most likely BC wants to focus on the other deals (Lackey, Miller) and knew he wasn't going to bring back a Bundy-type prospect. Also, Cespedes is a perfect piece for the offseason. Henceforth, all posts in the Stanton/Trade Subforum thread should include Cespedes (+cash), WMB, + ...... See you this winter, Giancarlo.... I think it's pretty clear that the Red Sox asked for teams' best and final offers last night. They spent the night sifting through the offers, spoke with ownership this morning and pushed the button on the deal.
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Post by trotnixonforever on Jul 31, 2014 9:35:10 GMT -5
LOLing at all the people with the hypothetical Stanton trades. You might as well work on your hypothetical Trout trades because they are just as likely to happen.
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Post by britalb on Jul 31, 2014 9:35:13 GMT -5
I had the feeling the market was starting to collapse. Too many GMs were saying they didn't want to trade their best prospects for Lester.
Also, Beane made a good point recently - we undervalue current production. They Sox don't want to rebuild. Even the return for Peavy was close to major league ready.
They want to develop their AAA prospects while Ortiz is still part of the team. They took advantage of a lost season to get a bat they needed without selling off the farm.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jul 31, 2014 9:36:20 GMT -5
Maybe Beane was one of the few GMs with the guts to pull the trigger. I'd rather do this than go to the deadline holding out for a joc petersen and end up with nothing. And we still have some more pieces to move.
Cespedes is a legitimate 30 HR threat in Boston and there is no reason why they can't extend that guy. He's also good defensively in his prime and healthy. He's exactly the kind of player the Redsox should covet with their philosophy. He is another plus player who does not require top dollar to have on the team. He's another Napoli only potentially better. Good defensively. Good offensively. Decent baserunner.
I get Guidas's position but my bet is that they do think they can extend this guy and he is truly the type of player they want. Capable of performing on the big stage. Good RH power. I also think the value of top prospects has skyrocketed in the last year. They are just worth significantly more now than they were even 1-2 years ago. Top guys are hard to get in trades and that 2nd round pick is decent.
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Post by pedey on Jul 31, 2014 9:36:35 GMT -5
Cespedes + Lackey + _________ (fill in blank) for Stanton? Middlebrooks and Barnes
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Post by soxfan06 on Jul 31, 2014 9:37:11 GMT -5
Just for the record, most of twitter and fans of other teams are universally panning this as a great trade for the Red Sox.
But then again, this is a Red Sox prospect forum who complains about almost everything, so it's not surprising people are complain about the fact that we added a RH power OF bat who is already a proven good MLB player rather than a top prospect.
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Post by wildcardwillie on Jul 31, 2014 9:38:05 GMT -5
LOLing at all the people with the hypothetical Stanton trades. You might as well work on your hypothetical Trout trades because they are just as likely to happen. Angels will pay up for Trout, Marlins have a history of wheeling and dealing.
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Post by Gwell55 on Jul 31, 2014 9:38:13 GMT -5
Warming to this deal. Cespedes is a good player at a position of need who seems tailor-made for Fenway. Optimistic about our chances of signing him beyond 2015 if we choose to do so. The draft pick is a decent little throw-in. Also, we put Lester in a place where he's very unlikely to resign, so the chance to grab him back up in the offseason is as alive as it was ever going to be. Yea I agree except with all earlier excitement maybe Oakland has a handshake deal with Ben to sign Lester (with a new hometown discount) and trade him back to us this spring!
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Post by glassox on Jul 31, 2014 9:38:41 GMT -5
LOL i really don't get Sox fans. All year long we begged for a power bat in the outfield and we just got one. Most rumors i saw said that the prospects we wanted wouldn't be available in a trade. I'm not the biggest Cespedes fan but i think its good value trade for a rental.
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Post by wildcardwillie on Jul 31, 2014 9:39:03 GMT -5
Cespedes + Lackey + _________ (fill in blank) for Stanton? Middlebrooks and Barnes why isn't this done? ?
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 31, 2014 9:40:13 GMT -5
you can look at the trade in the way of WAR (Fangraphs)
Lester was worth 4.6 WAR over half the season, we traded him for half a season in a year that Oakland needed him
Cespedes was worth 2.3 WAR over half the season, we traded for a full season of him in a year that we need him.
4.6 over half a season = 2.3 x2 for full season...
Or maybe that is just how Beane sold it.
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Post by vashon on Jul 31, 2014 9:40:33 GMT -5
Céspedes career Home/Away numbers
Home .278/.344/.494/.838 Away .248/.293/.447/.740
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Post by suttree on Jul 31, 2014 9:40:38 GMT -5
So a 3 WAR player is a good return for the best arm on the market?
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