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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jul 31, 2014 13:18:54 GMT -5
Craig was the best and only cards hitter I was afraid of in the ws.
Kelly looks like an innings eater at 4/5 potentially at about the same age as the bucket brigade with post season experience.
Qq
So we go
Holt(somedaymookie)
Petey
cespedes
Papi
Napoli
Craig
Xander
Vasquez
Jbj
That's a lot of runs, strong Fenway lineup from the right side.
We'll over 100 hr from 3/4/5/6/7
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Post by mattpicard on Jul 31, 2014 13:19:51 GMT -5
Hm, I thought it was much worse than that. He certainly looks like a bad outfield defender, as he has very limited footspeed and has been one of the worst baserunners in the league in the last couple years. But maybe that's just my prejudice showing. He's probably about equivalent to Carp in the outfield. I really don't know where he's going to play. That is not true at all. Craig may not be a good defender, but he's far better than Carp and Gomes. |
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Post by joshv02 on Jul 31, 2014 13:20:31 GMT -5
I've seen this posted elsewhere: his UZR for the OF is basically zero. Why is he considered a bad defensive player? Hm, I thought it was much worse than that. He certainly looks like a bad outfield defender, as he has very limited footspeed and has been one of the worst baserunners in the league in the last couple years. But maybe that's just my prejudice showing. I think of him as having bad range (but not horrible -- after all, they were willing to use him in CF in a pinch), and very sure hands, with an adequate arm. In other words, he gets to less than normal, but gets to everything he should. That probably is a below average RF for Fenway, now that I write it out. Hard to see how he plays with Cespedes, but figure that out later. |
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 31, 2014 13:21:22 GMT -5
I was on a Cardinals site and pretty much everyone said Joe Kelly is a whole lot of fun to have on the team. They weren't big on his potential though. Gets a lot of ground balls which is good for Fenway.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jul 31, 2014 13:22:13 GMT -5
Craig is an old fashioned Fenway left field thumper
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Post by suttree on Jul 31, 2014 13:23:28 GMT -5
This trade is even worse than the Lester one.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 31, 2014 13:23:56 GMT -5
He's probably about equivalent to Carp in the outfield. I really don't know where he's going to play. That is not true at all. Craig may not be a good defender, but he's far better than Carp and Gomes. Not as good as Nava. Again, I don't know where he's going to play. |
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Post by brendan98 on Jul 31, 2014 13:24:44 GMT -5
Craig was the best and only cards hitter I was afraid of in the ws. Kelly looks like an innings eater at 4/5 potentially at about the same age as the bucket brigade with post season experience. Qq So we go Holt(somedaymookie) Petey cespedes Papi Napoli Craig Xander Vasquez Jbj That's a lot of runs, strong Fenway lineup from the right side. We'll over 100 hr from 3/4/5/6/7 What happened to Victorino? |
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Post by jmei on Jul 31, 2014 13:33:07 GMT -5
Using a mix of Steamer/ZiPS projections, Craig is projected to be a 1.8 win player and Kelly is projected to be a 0.2 win player, Assuming Craig is hurt, and will return to being basically healthy (as you have to think the Red Sox believe, as they have been in talks to acquire him for some time now), an automated projection for him has zero validity. As for Kelly, let's not tempt eric to rant about fWAR for pitchers yet again. He has 1.5 career fWAR vs 3.1 career bWAR, and he, too, has been hurt this season. Has he been hurt this year? I've read speculation about it, but no real confirmation by any reputable source. Most articles suggest the issue has been more that his timing has been off. I'd previously posted some analysis of his year here. Even if he is injured, you can't just assume you'll get the 2011-13 version Craig next year. His significantly down 2014 should inform his 2015 projection, and automatic projection systems are a fine enough starting point for back-of-the-envelope math like this. At any rate, with confirmation that Lackey will indeed honor his contract (something he likely would have done as well had he stayed in Boston), there's a considerable margin for error here. Even if you think Craig is a 2.5 win player and Kelly is a 1 win player (pretty optimistic projections on both), there's still a strong argument to be made that you'd rather have Lackey (who projects to be a 3 win player) plus $5.5m (Craig's 2015 salary) in spending money. |
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jul 31, 2014 13:34:40 GMT -5
From MLB:
Kelly has made just three starts this season after missing nearly three months of action with a left hamstring strain sustained while he was running the bases.
Splitting the 2013 season between the rotation and the bullpen, Kelly was a key contributor for a team that won the pennant, going 10-5 with a 2.69 ERA in 37 games. In his 15 starts last season, Kelly was 9-3 with a 2.28 ERA.
In this disjointed season, the righty hasn't been as effective, going 2-2 with a 4.37 ERA.
We are not giving Kelly enough credit. This kid throws hard, throws strikes, and gets ground balls.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jul 31, 2014 13:34:44 GMT -5
Doesn't the .2 win projection for Kelly seem low to you? Kelly has been injured this year but has a career FIP of 4. That seems to match with what I have seen and read about him, athletic with good stuff but inconsistent. He's not really been injury prone as his problem this year was a pulled hamstring which occurred running the bases, and will be less of a factor in the AL.
So yeah if Kelly is basically a replacement level guy next year you are trading Lackey for Craig and that's not a good trade. But I have to think that he's likely to be better than that.
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Post by jmei on Jul 31, 2014 13:38:30 GMT -5
Doesn't the .2 win projection for Kelly seem low to you? Kelly has been injured this year but has a career FIP of 4. That seems to match with what I have seen and read about him, athletic with good stuff but inconsistent. He's not really been injury prone as his problem this year was a pulled hamstring which occurred running the bases, and will be less of a factor in the AL. So yeah if Kelly is basically a replacement level guy next year you are trading Lackey for Craig and that's not a good trade. But I have to think that he's likely to be better than that. Yeah, I guess I'm just pretty down on Kelly. I think he's going to be a bullpen guy, and bullpen guys just aren't that valuable. It changes things if you think he's a league-average starter going forward. |
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Post by trotnixonforever on Jul 31, 2014 13:40:22 GMT -5
What happened to Victorino? Just assume he's injured. |
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Post by moonstone2 on Jul 31, 2014 13:42:32 GMT -5
That is not true at all. Craig may not be a good defender, but he's far better than Carp and Gomes. Not as good as Nava. Again, I don't know where he's going to play. I think this goes back to what we learned from Carl Crawford. If you play half your games at Fenway park it's tough to add or lose defensive value in LF. So many balls that a good LF would have a chance at end up on the wall and out of reach. It's not that tough to learn how to play the caroms off the wall and doesn't require anything more than willingness to put in the time. |
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,531
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Post by nomar on Jul 31, 2014 13:42:48 GMT -5
I too think he's a bullpen guy. But I think Workman is too. Not sure what the rotation looks like from here on out.
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Post by sammo420 on Jul 31, 2014 13:45:11 GMT -5
Craig was the best and only cards hitter I was afraid of in the ws. Kelly looks like an innings eater at 4/5 potentially at about the same age as the bucket brigade with post season experience. Qq So we go Holt(somedaymookie) Petey cespedes Papi Napoli Craig Xander Vasquez Jbj That's a lot of runs, strong Fenway lineup from the right side. We'll over 100 hr from 3/4/5/6/7 What happened to Victorino? He's injured already  |
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 31, 2014 13:45:45 GMT -5
Craig makes zero sense until I see a Napoli trade, TBH. Zero sense at all.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 31, 2014 13:46:22 GMT -5
Not as good as Nava. Again, I don't know where he's going to play. I think this goes back to what we learned from Carl Crawford. If you play half your games at Fenway park it's tough to add or lose defensive value in LF. So many balls that a good LF would have a chance at end up on the wall and out of reach. It's not that tough to learn how to play the caroms off the wall and doesn't require anything more than willingness to put in the time. That's fine, but Cespedes is there. |
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Post by moonstone2 on Jul 31, 2014 13:46:36 GMT -5
Oh absolutely if you think that he's a bullpen guy no way you make this trade. Obviously the Red Sox think that Kelly will likely be decent starter and if they are right, I think you would agree this is the right move. But if your evaluation is right, then this was a terrible move.
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Post by okin15 on Jul 31, 2014 13:47:14 GMT -5
This trade is a gamble. I'm optimistic that Kelly will be OK, and that Craig will fit in well in LF (that's definitely his position IMO), but I understand there's a TON of downside risk here. Of course, Lackey has his own downside. I think Craig gets most of the reps in LF next year, with Nava getting his share there, plus 1B. Carp really has no position on this team now (JimEd says "did he ever?".)
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 31, 2014 13:48:10 GMT -5
It's like we just traded for a $10 million Mike Carp. There's no room for him on this roster.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 31, 2014 13:49:57 GMT -5
This was a big upside bet, but too risky for me. I'm still surprised Pirates didn't come in and beat it. Let's hope Red Sox see something in Kelly that I just am not picking up on, besides his age.
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Post by jmei on Jul 31, 2014 13:51:09 GMT -5
It's like we just traded for a $10 million Mike Carp. There's no room for him on this roster. Craig is a lot better than Carp. What is wrong with a Cespedes/Bradley/Craig outfield, with Victorino and Nava as the 4th/5th outfielders? |
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 31, 2014 13:53:15 GMT -5
It's like we just traded for a $10 million Mike Carp. There's no room for him on this roster. Craig is a lot better than Carp. What is wrong with a Cespedes/Bradley/Craig outfield, with Victorino and Nava as the 4th/5th outfielders? Neither Craig nor Cespedes belong in RF. |
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 31, 2014 13:55:46 GMT -5
I am on the record as hating acquiring Craig as much as I hated the Carl Crawford signing. (wasn't here then, so you'll have to take my word for it)
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