Discussion of 2014 and 2015 pitching rotations

There are two reasons for guys to be in the starting rotation the rest of the way: to get a better idea of how good they are, and to give them experience that will improve them.

The three guys who can be justified both ways are Webster, Ranaudo, and to a slightly lesser degree in terms of gaining experience (because he really attacks hitters just one way), Wright.

We've got a pretty good idea that Rubby will be in the rotation next year, so he gets his four more starts to gain experience and then is basically shut down on 9/1.

We can really use the two months to evaluate Kelly.

Buchholz is hard to get a handle on. I don't think anything he does the rest of the way is going to move the needle on what we expect of him next year more than a little. Right now, we have no idea whether he'll be great or awful, and if he's great or awful for the next two months, we'll only have a moderate inclination to think he'll be more likely to be one or the other next year. So it comes down to how much his 2015 performance might benefit from his continuing to pitch this year.

Workman, as others have opined, belongs in the pen unless we need him as a 5th starter in September, or because of an injury.

The easy thing to do would be to go with Buchholz, Kelly, De La Rosa, Webster, and Ranaudo in August, and replace RDLR with Wright in September. But it might make more sense to put Buchholz back on the DL and call up Wright now, and then in September choose between Buchholz, Workman, and dark horse Edwin Escobar (if he has a first-rate July) for the 5th starter. If Webster indeed hits an innings limit in mid-September, then you'd see two of those three.

Olney mentioned the Reds have been discussing the possibility of trading Matt Latos. (I've put a thread up in the other forum. ) he may be someone to keep an eye on.

I bet we will be all in on Masterson this winter for many reasons. But the one that is the strongest.....no draft pick.

I'm hoping we find two guys out of the auditioners. Rubby has had 3 absolutely dominant outings. I feel he has the best stuff. I think he'll be solid next year. Not great. Not terrible. Just solid as he builds on his command. I've always felt Workman was a bullpen arm. And, a good one. He'll probably pick up a few ticks on his fastball too when he's pitching less innings. The second one will come down to Ranaudo and Webster. Both walk way too many hitters to be successful in MLB. Whichever one starts to throw strikes and doesn't get tagged wins the job. If not, Brian Johnson and Henry Owens are lurking.

Of 4 potential "aces" becoming available over the next 14 months (counting Price here), Scherzer is probably the least likely. Sadly, with Price being traded to the Tigers we will probably never see him available because they will probably extend him. I'd agree Lester coming back in 2015 would be a great thing, but I would not be surprised if they sign Shields instead because of less years.

They will probably sign two veteran starters this winter, and I would guess Shields and Masterson. Shields WILL have a qualifying offer hung on him and Masterson can't. Perfect? No. But a couple of these kids getting this amazing opportunity to audition these last 2 months of 2014 will be, at least, average. Funny that we started 2014 with 2 lefty starters, and there is a good chance we will have none next season.

Being down here in the Ray's area, I have had many opportunities to watch Shields pitch and I think his stuff, command, and attitude will work well in Boston and for 2 to 4 years. I have my doubts the Sox will go to 5 or more years for any starter over 30, but who knows. Shields on a 3 year contract may be worth exploring.

Other pitchers heading into the final year of their contract to watch:

Jordan Zimmerman - his contract jumps from $7.5M this year to $16.5M next year
Doug Fister - Arb3. Made $7.2 this year.
Jeff Samardzjia - Arb3. Made $5.35 this year.
Scott Kazmir - $11M.
Yovanni Gallardo - $13M club option.
Johnny Cueto - $10M club option.
Hiyashi Iwakuma - $7M club option.
Kyle Lohse - $11M.

The thing about Webster is his body language. I don't know if it's his confidence or is he just the way he is. I look at Anthony last night and I say now I can see this kid in the rotation. I guess that s what is good about these 2 months they finally can look at these pitchers.

If they have Webster start 6 more times they won't be giving up a draft pick.

I wonder though if a guy's body language isn't partly the result of how he's doing.  I also wonder if how we interpret the body language is partly the result of how he's doing.

I was watching Koji closely last night with this in mind.  If seemed to me that it would have been easy to view his demeanor as being that of the proverbial "deer in the headlights".

This is all pretty subjective I think.

 

Layne will be the LH. I am fairly high on him. I would rather have Workman in the rotation and the Sox to resign Miller along with Uehara. BC likes depth at relief as well.
I see our rotation in 2015 like this:
1. FA/trade
2. Kelly
3. Buch
4. Work
5. RDLR

Our pen will need more depth over the off season.

Barnes' strike 3s in the embedding video The FB looks a little flat but the curveball is just filthy and seems to have two speeds (or at least went between a hard break and a looping break).

The FB looks very nasty when he spots it up and in about letter high and down and away. The curve looked like his outpitch yesterday and was virtually unhittable when he spotted it away, which he did on a few of the Ks. The FB is straight enough where he will need to spot it in the lower 3rd of the zone or up by the letters, but he was hitting the mitt on those strike 3s. Impressive compared to what I saw last year. He does throw a slider as well, right?. Wasn't seeing that in this clip.

www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140802&content_id=87706232&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb

I strongly believe that we are all in with solutions around Buch and
Webster but we all know that if you want to win every year or least being very competitive You must invest heavely in proven aces. Remenber when FO passed on CC? Greynke? Darvish? Tanaka? In the AL EAST you will not win unless you play like Tampa Bay (low pay roll).
Webster is a great kid but should be better fit in other place. Workman is most probably a bullpen arm. Buch will surely goes to DL. What I am saying is we should be strong in PROVEN ACES at least two ( Leste has to be one ) and the others 3 spots the best of Ranaudo,Wright,De la Rosa,Barnes,Owens & Kelly.