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Discussion of 2014 and 2015 pitching rotations
nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 5, 2014 16:15:26 GMT -5
Obviously we already have an impressive stockpile of arms in the high minors, but apparently the Miami Marlins just DFA'd a 23 year old former first round draft pick who in 78 MLB innings this season posted a FIP of 4 and an XFIP just under. I think that its safe to say that the future ace Jacob Turner train has been derailed, but there is a lot of talent there that is backed up by some moderate recent success. Would it make sense to attempt to acquire him for ptbnl and add him in the mix for the rest of the season? I'd do that but I would think that the Cubs or Phillies are going to end up with him. Worst case scenario you cut him over the winter if he's no good. Probably worth sending either Workman or Webster back for. I would send Workman for Turner. Turners two years younger and he would be just as good in relief if he doesn't stick in the rotation. Doubt Hoyer and Theo let him slip past them
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 5, 2014 16:41:17 GMT -5
I'd take a Lester/Shields combo. At what point do we get off the Buchholz roller coaster? At least a kid offers the potential to establish himself as a consistent starter. I think we know Clay will never maintain his level now. I'd rather go with this: 1) FA (Lester/Scherzer) 2) FA (Shields/ ) 3) Kelly 4) De La Rosa 5) Ranaudo/Webster/Workman/Wright than this: 1) FA (Lester/Scherzer) 2) FA (Shields/ ) 3) Buchholz 4) Kelly 5) De La Rosa Rumors have the Reds looking to move Matt Latos. I would go after him hard. While not an ace, he a solid number 2. If you could get Lester to resign and trade for Latos along with all our young pitching, the Sox might just have enough pitching to compete for a title. Sure hope a few of our young pitchers step forward by the end of the year.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 5, 2014 17:49:17 GMT -5
He's Jeckyl/hyde. I caught a couple of his games this year.. LAD, Oakland also think it was and he would melt on the mound with trouble. His stuff looked ok, same with velocity. No loss from previous seasons. IMO, he needs a change of scenery. I'd have liked to seen some kind of Doubrant for Turner swap worked out, but doubt the marlins would have gone for that even. Turner still has way more upside.
Last of all his relief appearances, but based on his amount of quality starts. 3/3 in 2013 (all sterling btw) and 3/9 in 2014, though he only allowed over 3ER in 2 games. THAT is what a team is looking for in any starting rotation.
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Post by jdb on Sept 25, 2014 20:19:27 GMT -5
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 25, 2014 20:25:42 GMT -5
Webster is starting to string some starts together recently.....just sayin', as much flak as he gets he has been looking very solid lately.
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Post by jdb on Sept 26, 2014 9:17:51 GMT -5
Webster is starting to string some starts together recently.....just sayin', as much flak as he gets he has been looking very solid lately. He really has. He had three stinkers in 11 starts that skewed the stats but in 8 of 11 starts he pitched well enough for us to win which for a 4th or 5th starter is good. I'd definitely feel better today putting him in the rotation (with pencil not pen) than I did a month ago. After thinking about it and the Rays approach maybe we sign a top starter and trade for someone in a salary dump like Colon and let one of our young arms push him out the rotation by the break. 1 FA 2 Colon 3Buch 4 Kelly 5 RDL / Webster Then see who steps up in AAA. Also what FAs are out there that the QO might cost them? Santana probably gets one and he didn't sign until spring. With a protected pick maybe they decide to wait these qualifying guys out and when the price drops jump on them. Webster Game logs www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=webstal01&t=p&year=2014
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Post by kman22 on Sept 26, 2014 9:29:25 GMT -5
I wouldn't want to go into a season (especially one where I was expecting to compete for a championship) relying on Bartolo Colon as a #2 starter.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 26, 2014 12:21:06 GMT -5
I'm interested to hear how people would specifically assign roles to the grouping of De La Rosa, Webster, Workman, Ranaudo, Barnes and Wright for next year based on what you saw this year. Of course, how these guys show up to spring training and perform will be a huge factor, but since we don't know yet, lets make some predictions/analysis off what we do know.
For me, I'd be okay with assigning one to a SP role with the big club, 2 converted to relief for the big club, leaving 3 to be traded or starting the year in the Paw Sox rotation alongside Owens, Johnson, and Rodriguez (its getting crowded especially if you consider Escobar, but I'd probably convert him to relief in favor of starting the other guys). Based on what we saw this year I'd give those roles to the following with a brief justification:
Bos SP - De La Rosa: This was a no brainer a little while ago, but boy did he hit a wall that makes me pause. That said, my hope would be that he starts fresh next year and resembles the pitcher from the first half of this year. Bos RP - Workman: I think its time to convert him to relief. Its hard envisioning him securing a SP role ahead of the mentioned guys plus the wave of LHPs in Pawtucket. He's shown some success in an RP role before and I think its time for him to be a permanent fixture in our bullpen. Bos RP - Barnes: This is a tough one for me. There is a part of me that likes his upside of a starter if the secondaries play up. We know how important fastball command is for starting, and he seems to have the best of this group. I could be talked into letting him start, but I just see a dominant reliever in him waiting to happen and I think it would be nice to identify our next closer sooner than later.
As for the rest....I'd be very tempted to swap Webster and De La Rosa given the way Webster has finished. I still love his upside and in reality, I think I'd be focused on a De La Rosa vs. Webster competition in spring training for a starting spot. As for Wright, I'm intrigued by him as well. I'd likely have him in Pawtucket as the next guy in line for a starting role. As for Ranaudo, he'd be the first guy that I'd try to trade. Hopefully there is a team that buys into his AAA success and places some value in him (maybe as the 2nd piece for a big name, or the 1st piece for mid range trade target). Otherwise, I'd probably convert him to the bullpen sooner than later.
One last point, given the lack of success for rookies this year, I'd bet that only 1 SP slot will be open for this group when the year begins. I personally wouldn't be too upset if there were two spots available though. Something like Lester (or Shields), Buch, Kelly, RDLR, & Webster (or Wright). I'm even more okay with this given my confidence in one of Owens, Johnson, and Rodriguez being able to help the big club by June or July. To an extent, I fear that the failures of Bradley, Middlebrooks, and Bogaerts are going to work against the current crop of prospects (extending to Cecchini as well). I hope the successes of Betts and Vazquez offset that bias a bit.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 26, 2014 12:36:04 GMT -5
I'd do that but I would think that the Cubs or Phillies are going to end up with him. Worst case scenario you cut him over the winter if he's no good. Probably worth sending either Workman or Webster back for. I would send Workman for Turner. Turners two years younger and he would be just as good in relief if he doesn't stick in the rotation. Doubt Hoyer and Theo let him slip past them Sorry for dragging this up, want to bring up an interesting point regarding Turner that people who may still be interested in him may not realize.. Actually a couple. He's out of options, so Epstein is going to have to try to get him through waivers over the winter.. Why? He's got Andrew Miller syndrome from/at Miami. The guy has really lost all sense of his mechanics. They just continued to regress this season after beginning to last season. I don't know if the Cubs are planning on attempting a fix at the MLB level next year, or hoping they can redo them during ST, but they have a LOT of work ahead. He cannot repeat his delivery. Then losing Fernandez, along with Turner's ills was why they had to go out and acquire Cosart. I'd still like to try and get him, then stash him at Pawtucket for the Miller cure if possible.
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 26, 2014 13:32:32 GMT -5
My choices for starting rotations: 2014: Renaudo Webster Wright Kelly Buccholz 2015: Lester (or Sale) Cueto Buccholz Kelly Webster
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Post by charliezink16 on Sept 27, 2014 0:48:33 GMT -5
I'd say the most realistic scenario is:
(Lester/Cueto/Hamels/Scherzer/Shields) Buchholz Kelly De La Rosa Barnes/Wright/Webster/Ranaudo/Workman
I think it's entirely possible that we bring in 2 starting pitchers, the 2nd being maybe Liriano/Masterson/Wandy, I dunno. But I think the front offices is only eying 1 SP, due to the likelihood of one of the 4 listed above separating himself, and the potential emergence of Owens/Rodriguez/Johnson.
ADD: Workman
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 27, 2014 1:13:51 GMT -5
I'd say the most realistic scenario is: (Lester/Cueto/Hamels/Scherzer/Shields) Buchholz Kelly De La Rosa Barnes/Wright/Webster/Ranaudo I think it's entirely possible that we bring in 2 starting pitchers, the 2nd being maybe Liriano/Masterson/Wandy, I dunno. But I think the front offices is only eying 1 SP, due to the likelihood of one of the 4 listed above separating himself, and the potential emergence of Owens/Rodriguez/Johnson. I see it that way, too, with the addendum that Ranaudo is the longshot of the 5th starter group and an excellent candidate to be dealt to a club with a thin rotation and big park. He has nothing left to prove in AAA but is very unlikely to ever be the 5th best starter in this organization; I think Webster and Wright have already passed him, and Barnes is on the verge. I think that Wright will be either the 5th starter or, more likely, long reliever / spot starter. He has nothing to prove in AAA and clearly throws a high enough percentage of good knucklers to be an asset to the MLB team. Webster versus Barnes for the 5th starter (with Wright as the dark horse) will be very interesting, and whichever guy loses will join Owens, Johnson, Rodriguez, and Escobar in an epic PawSox rotation to accompany the insane Swihart, Shaw, Coyle, Marrero, Cecchini, Brentz, Bradley, Hassan, Middlebrooks (I bet) starting lineup: perhaps the most prospect-heavy starting lineup in recent AAA history. That leaves Workman as a short man in the MLB pen where he belongs (if he's not traded because some team values him as a back-of-rotation starter). The other 5 guys in the pen would be re-signed Uehara, a LHR acquisition, Tazawa, Mujica, and Layne. Now, the one alternative scenario is where Wright is the 5th starter, both Webster and Barnes are in the PawSox rotation (perhaps bumping Escobar to the pen to start the season), and the last bullpen spot goes to an acquisition (an upside guy like Badenhop), Britton, Wilson, or Hembree. But the latter two seem better suited to ride the shuttle for now. Of course, injuries or trades may thin all of this. By midseason or the deadline, you're looking for the best of that formidable PawSox rotation to supplant Rubby. There's no question in my mind that he can be an above MLB average, #3 starter, but the hope is that he's the 6th or 7th best starter or this team, because he should be at the least an outstanding 8th-inning guy, if not a closer.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 27, 2014 9:05:09 GMT -5
People seem pretty hung up on what the actual rotation will be. We just need 5 starters, they'll figure out what the order is themselves.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 28, 2014 8:23:59 GMT -5
All still living under the delusional fantasy that Lester and the Sox have a secret (wink-wink) handshake deal for him to come back may want to read the recent Bradford interview with him. This quote is particularly revealing: "Absolutely," he said regarding feeling an excitement heading into the coming days...I have to worry about my next start. That's what I have to focus on, and then once everything is said and done I can sit down with [agent] Seth [Levinson] and my family and we can evaluate. Then we can start getting into the excitement of free agency and all the possibilities and what-ifs and wondering what's going to happen. That stuff will come when it's time and when we get there, yeah, I'm sure it will be an exciting time. But right now we're focused on trying to win and hopefully carrying that over into the postseason."This isn't to say the Sox won't resign him, but if they do it will be at full market dollars and years. Good luck with that.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 28, 2014 9:12:55 GMT -5
All still living under the delusional fantasy that Lester and the Sox have a secret (wink-wink) handshake deal for him to come back may want to read the recent Bradford interview with him. This quote is particularly revealing: "Absolutely," he said regarding feeling an excitement heading into the coming days...I have to worry about my next start. That's what I have to focus on, and then once everything is said and done I can sit down with [agent] Seth [Levinson] and my family and we can evaluate. Then we can start getting into the excitement of free agency and all the possibilities and what-ifs and wondering what's going to happen. That stuff will come when it's time and when we get there, yeah, I'm sure it will be an exciting time. But right now we're focused on trying to win and hopefully carrying that over into the postseason."This isn't to say the Sox won't resign him, but if they do it will be at full market dollars and years. Good luck with that. Well this is what one would expect him to say publicly, no? I think that the Boston connection (and perhaps what he sees unfold here) will be a strong factor for him. Still, he has found life after Boston so we are going to have to up the ante no doubt. People should not forget about Rodriguez for the rotation either. He has as much stuff as any of our younger pitchers and he is LH. Given that the Sox feel they rushed some guys this season, he will likely pitch half a year in AAA, but I could see him on the staff next season. To me RDLR serves better in relief. Kelly has been a revelation....Geez a starter who threw a pitch at 99??!!! Where have you been all my life?
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Post by tonyc on Sept 28, 2014 11:43:34 GMT -5
I'm pretty much in line with Eric, Ram, Sarasoxer in terms of best starting candidates. I've always felt some people here have been too impatient with Webster, I really like Wright, and Eric like you said, I think long relief and spot start may work well given his versatility, and control and he may do so well it could force a spot in the rotation? Also agree Ranaudo appears a cut below the others, but lets see if there's an uptick with rest. Definitely want Barnes to have more opportunity as a starter before converting him.
Guidas, I agree with your cynicism about Lester- players years later have admitted "it's always about the money"- they are greedy mercenaries- now Cespedes won't commit- and as much as I love baseball I now look forward to hockey because as Brick puts it, that is the ultimate team sport, and even though contracts are getting bigger,staying with the same group is still important to them.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 28, 2014 12:56:03 GMT -5
All still living under the delusional fantasy that Lester and the Sox have a secret (wink-wink) handshake deal for him to come back may want to read the recent Bradford interview with him. This quote is particularly revealing: "Absolutely," he said regarding feeling an excitement heading into the coming days...I have to worry about my next start. That's what I have to focus on, and then once everything is said and done I can sit down with [agent] Seth [Levinson] and my family and we can evaluate. Then we can start getting into the excitement of free agency and all the possibilities and what-ifs and wondering what's going to happen. That stuff will come when it's time and when we get there, yeah, I'm sure it will be an exciting time. But right now we're focused on trying to win and hopefully carrying that over into the postseason."This isn't to say the Sox won't resign him, but if they do it will be at full market dollars and years. Good luck with that. There is really nothing else to spend money on so I'm not sure why they wouldn't. He deserves it more than guys like Carl Crawford.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 28, 2014 14:12:40 GMT -5
All still living under the delusional fantasy that Lester and the Sox have a secret (wink-wink) handshake deal for him to come back may want to read the recent Bradford interview with him. This quote is particularly revealing: ... Yes, if a player feels that he would be more comfortable in one city than in any other, we can certainly rely on him to say this in all his interviews, regardless of whether the statement costs him millions of dollars.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 28, 2014 14:16:05 GMT -5
All still living under the delusional fantasy that Lester and the Sox have a secret (wink-wink) handshake deal for him to come back may want to read the recent Bradford interview with him. This quote is particularly revealing: "Absolutely," he said regarding feeling an excitement heading into the coming days...I have to worry about my next start. That's what I have to focus on, and then once everything is said and done I can sit down with [agent] Seth [Levinson] and my family and we can evaluate. Then we can start getting into the excitement of free agency and all the possibilities and what-ifs and wondering what's going to happen. That stuff will come when it's time and when we get there, yeah, I'm sure it will be an exciting time. But right now we're focused on trying to win and hopefully carrying that over into the postseason."This isn't to say the Sox won't resign him, but if they do it will be at full market dollars and years. Good luck with that. Well this is what one would expect him to say publicly, no? I think that the Boston connection (and perhaps what he sees unfold here) will be a strong factor for him. Still, he has found life after Boston so we are going to have to up the ante no doubt. People should not forget about Rodriguez for the rotation either. He has as much stuff as any of our younger pitchers and he is LH. Given that the Sox feel they rushed some guys this season, he will likely pitch half a year in AAA, but I could see him on the staff next season. To me RDLR serves better in relief. Kelly has been a revelation....Geez a starter who threw a pitch at 99??!!! Where have you been all my life? If there was a deal in place I don't think he'd profess excitement about the free agency. That particular choice of words and going to it twice says, at least to me, that he's wide open to hear what teams will do for him. Also, don't discount the fact that they traded him, which in a lot of guys builds resentment the more they get distance from the trade. Also remember he described John Henry coming out to thank him while he was leaving as an uncomfortable moment. That doesn't sound like any handshake deal sentiment to me. But more than anything, the fact that the Sox let him go speaks volumes. Unless getting a legit top 10, pitching or everyday player prospect in return in the trade (i.e. not a one year rental) there is almost zero reason to risk releasing a pitcher you want to retain - who is also one of the two top pitchers available in free agency - into the open market where he almost certainly will receive offers in years and dollars that you will not be willing to meet. What will be interesting is to see if the ownership group will cave to the public outcry and now pay full market value and years. Because that's what Lester will be offered by the Cubs, Yankees, Dodgers, Seattle, and perhaps three to six other teams who either just want him or who believe they are a #2 starter away from the playoffs/World Series.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 28, 2014 14:24:03 GMT -5
Lester is not coming back to boston. The cubs and Yankees will slug it out for him.
Our best move is to sign shields, four years if need be, and then trade for either hamel, darvish, or sale.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 28, 2014 14:24:33 GMT -5
Is there any point in trying to figure out what people are thinking?
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 28, 2014 14:25:48 GMT -5
Lester is not coming back to boston. The cubs and Yankees will slug it out for him. Our best move is to sign shields, four years if need be, and then trade for either hamel, darvish, or sale. Do you honestly think it's more likely that we trade for Darvish or Sale than it is we sign Lester?
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 28, 2014 14:45:57 GMT -5
All still living under the delusional fantasy that Lester and the Sox have a secret (wink-wink) handshake deal for him to come back may want to read the recent Bradford interview with him. This quote is particularly revealing: "Absolutely," he said regarding feeling an excitement heading into the coming days...I have to worry about my next start. That's what I have to focus on, and then once everything is said and done I can sit down with [agent] Seth [Levinson] and my family and we can evaluate. Then we can start getting into the excitement of free agency and all the possibilities and what-ifs and wondering what's going to happen. That stuff will come when it's time and when we get there, yeah, I'm sure it will be an exciting time. But right now we're focused on trying to win and hopefully carrying that over into the postseason."This isn't to say the Sox won't resign him, but if they do it will be at full market dollars and years. Good luck with that. what else would he say? If he said anything else the MLBPA would be pissed beyond belief at him
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Post by okin15 on Sept 28, 2014 15:02:46 GMT -5
All still living under the delusional fantasy that Lester and the Sox have a secret (wink-wink) handshake deal for him to come back: Then we can start getting into the excitement of free agency and all the possibilities and what-ifs and wondering what's going to happen. That stuff will come when it's time and when we get there, yeah, I'm sure it will be an exciting time. But right now we're focused on trying to win and hopefully carrying that over into the postseason."This isn't to say the Sox won't resign him, but if they do it will be at full market dollars and years. Good luck with that. what else would he say? If he said anything else the MLBPA would be pissed beyond belief at him He's not simply denying there's a secret deal, he's talking about how much fun free agency will be. Why would he have a deal in place other than "Sure John, we'll definitely give it our best shot to bring you back". "Great Ben, I like it here and would love to play here on a market deal."
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 28, 2014 15:03:56 GMT -5
what else would he say? If he said anything else the MLBPA would be pissed beyond belief at him He's not simply denying there's a secret deal, he's talking about how much fun free agency will be. Why would he have a deal in place other than "Sure John, we'll definitely give it our best shot to bring you back". "Great Henry, I like it here and would love to play here on a market deal." So what? I bet the Red Sox would gladly pay a market deal to him. They got excess value in Cespedes and the draft pick in the bank. Maybe that was the plan all along?
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