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Post by Guidas on Aug 1, 2014 13:03:44 GMT -5
Agreed and that is basically predicated on the Red Sox being convinced that Castillo is a starting CF with ave to above ave defense and about a 3.6-3.8 WAR player (depending on how you want to extrapolate "additional pop." The stat line for Davis the year he cited was:
.305/.360./.423
I extrapolated this out the added pop to put him in the 13-15HR range, which gave me a rough WAR (did it in my head) of the 3.6/3.8ish - I kept the other numbers constant but give or take .010 from AVE and OBP for the comp and add in the HRs and ensuing doubles (especially at Fenway) for the increase SLG.
Anyway, if they do see him as Davis in his prime with more pop, that's a starting CF for most MLB teams.
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Post by jmei on Aug 1, 2014 13:10:45 GMT -5
That year is by far Davis' best one, though. I guess I didn't think Badler meant just that one outlier year, and Davis as a whole is very fringy. I'm not comfortable projecting anyone to hit .300, so I don't think .300/.360/.420 is a realistic median projection.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 1, 2014 13:22:33 GMT -5
Here's a bit fuller excerpt (which still doesn't compromise the integrity of the piece as it's several paragraph's long):
Davis, now 33, was another similarly-built speedster who could play center field with an aggressive hitting approach, a solid bat and occasional power, with an underappreciated skill set for a player who was often thought of as a fourth outfielder himself.
Davis might not be the flashiest comp, but during his age 27-29 seasons, Davis amassed 6.5 Wins Above Replacement (per Baseball-Reference.com), with a peak of 3.3 WAR (Fangraphs has him at 3.7) for Oakland as a 28-year-old in 2009. That’s an average of a little over 2 WAR per season at the same age as Castillo, which is a league-average player.
That, however, was before Castillo increased his raw power. If Castillo can give teams comparable production to Davis at the same age with a little extra pop, he might not be a star like Yoenis Cespedes or Jose Abreu, but that’s a very solid everyday player, with no draft picks or prospects to surrender to acquire him.
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Post by jmei on Aug 1, 2014 13:36:13 GMT -5
Yeah, I read the piece, and I took Badler to mean that Castillo is maybe a two-and-a-half win player. That's valuable, but not 4/$70m valuable (though it'd imply 4/$60m or so).
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 2, 2014 11:22:16 GMT -5
Ken Rosenthal ?@ken_Rosenthal 5m
Sources: Cuban OF Rusney Castillo already has his Office of Foreign Assets Control license, enabling him to sign with a club at any time.
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Post by bjb406 on Aug 2, 2014 17:52:32 GMT -5
need i point out that Bradley has for the year WAR of 1.7? And he is his rookie, its very reasonable to expect improvement. Jacoby has only 2.2. I was all for signing Abreu last year, but this looks like neither a need, nor an obvious upgrade.
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Post by jdb on Aug 2, 2014 17:58:40 GMT -5
If you think he's an elite talent and the cost isn't crazy you sign him and worry about JBJ later. I love watching JBJ but Betts could easily surpass him too if his bat doesn't come around. He's 0 for his last 19 with 9 Ks.
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Aug 2, 2014 18:00:16 GMT -5
Some teams have said to view him at SS or 2B not that we need anymore of those. Maybe he can play 3B don't really know what his scouting report is though.
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Post by godot on Aug 2, 2014 18:20:00 GMT -5
Do we have any kids in the minors that could be good outfielders. If not and this guy has promise, can they afford to pass?
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Post by godot on Aug 2, 2014 18:55:35 GMT -5
Do we have any kids in the minors that could be good outfielders. If not and this guy has promise, can they afford to pass? Outside of Hassan, Brentz and Ramos (none of whom are likely to be anything more than fourth outfielders), the cupboard is bare in the high minors. Ugh, thought so, and our pitching prospects at AAA that were so highly touted may not be that great. But we have a great farm system. Never mind. Sign him. |
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Post by arzjake on Aug 2, 2014 20:19:51 GMT -5
They lost Abreu by 5million.
Better do better here. Lot of scouts say remind them of Pendleton or Puckett. Power bat, most of the cuban players who have signed the last few years are pretty damn good.
Pony up
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,780 
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Post by cdj on Aug 2, 2014 20:51:24 GMT -5
They lost Abreu by 5million. Better do better here. Lot of scouts say remind them of Pendleton or Puckett. Power bat, most of the cuban players who have signed the last few years are pretty damn good. Pony up Everything I've read suggests he is not a power bat and more of a speed guy. But who knows. |
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Aug 2, 2014 21:44:50 GMT -5
It is all about adding as many assets as you can. I am all for signing the guy if he'll improve our organizational talent.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 3, 2014 7:06:45 GMT -5
It is all about adding as many assets as you can. I am all for signing the guy if he'll improve our organizational talent. This... |
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Post by godot on Aug 3, 2014 7:18:43 GMT -5
Just saw a video of him. Hell, sign him just to have him when there is a brawl.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 3, 2014 7:21:23 GMT -5
It is all about adding as many assets as you can. I am all for signing the guy if he'll improve our organizational talent. Depends what it takes to sign him. You can't give 10m+ to a guy whom you don't think will start for you. I'm not saying he is able to or not. That's up to the front office to decide. |
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Post by godot on Aug 3, 2014 7:48:39 GMT -5
That is rather scary, considering their recent track record.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Aug 3, 2014 7:54:09 GMT -5
Where's Castillo going to play. I would also be some what suspicious about the recent addition of 20 lbs that he added, particularly given that he is only 5'9" and those extra lbs increased his body weight by 10% which is a lot for some who is at least 27 years old.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 3, 2014 11:09:25 GMT -5
Ben Badler ?@benbadler 8m Didn't mention before their big trade, but one team with a strong presence at Rusney Castillo's showcase? The Tigers: bit.ly/1xpPcZP |
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Post by oilcansman on Aug 3, 2014 12:00:26 GMT -5
Ben Badler ?@benbadler 8m Didn't mention before their big trade, but one team with a strong presence at Rusney Castillo's showcase? The Tigers: bit.ly/1xpPcZPTigers traded Austin Jackson at deadline so there's an open spot for Castillo in center in Comerica. |
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Aug 3, 2014 12:17:37 GMT -5
Lets sign another asset in Castillo.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 3, 2014 13:46:48 GMT -5
Where's Castillo going to play. I would also be some what suspicious about the recent addition of 20 lbs that he added, particularly given that he is only 5'9" and those extra lbs increased his body weight by 10% which is a lot for some who is at least 27 years old. Watch this video from his workout in Miami before suggesting that Castillo's fat or out of shape.
forum.soxprospects.com/post/101457/quote/2101?page=2
I don't think he's saying he's out of shape. I believe he's hinting that your boy might have gotten a little artificial help in putting 20lb of muscle on |
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 3, 2014 13:58:22 GMT -5
It is all about adding as many assets as you can. I am all for signing the guy if he'll improve our organizational talent. Everybody wants to sign him, but at what price? This team, as currently constructed, is expected to have approx. $55mm to rebuild its pitching staff and stay under the cap. If you spend $10-12mm/yr on Castillo, that's $10-12mm less you can spend on pitching. Miller is likely going to cost $7-8mm/year, so now you're down to $47-48mm to spend for 1-2 starters and whatever else is on your shopping list. Half of that will go to Lester, if he resigns, or slightly less if they go in a James Shields direction. Castillo - $11mm Miller - $8mm Lester - $24mm That leaves approx. $12mm for whatever other holes (#2 starter?) are left. |
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 3, 2014 14:14:20 GMT -5
Where's Castillo going to play. I would also be some what suspicious about the recent addition of 20 lbs that he added, particularly given that he is only 5'9" and those extra lbs increased his body weight by 10% which is a lot for some who is at least 27 years old. If we get him, we could field the all-Lilliputian team. |
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Post by Don Caballero on Aug 3, 2014 14:33:10 GMT -5
Everybody wants to sign him, but at what price? This team, as currently constructed, is expected to have approx. $55mm to rebuild its pitching staff and stay under the cap. If you spend $10-12mm/yr on Castillo, that's $10-12mm less you can spend on pitching. Miller is likely going to cost $7-8mm/year, so now you're down to $47-48mm to spend for 1-2 starters and whatever else is on your shopping list. Half of that will go to Lester, if he resigns, or slightly less if they go in a James Shields direction. Castillo - $11mm Miller - $8mm Lester - $24mm That leaves approx. $12mm for whatever other holes (#2 starter?) are left. And how would your calculations change were we to trade Napoli (either at the waiver wire or during the offseason) and plug Craig in at first? Sure, let's create a hole so we can use the money saved by the process to fix it with likely lesser parts. |
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