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2015 Draft Discussion
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Mar 27, 2015 7:03:58 GMT -5
You take him period! He is even relatively young for HS graduation. Every time I watch him on a YouTube video he looks way ahead with respect to polish and his secondary. Smooth mechanics, lefty with good velo, and a great idea about pitching.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 27, 2015 7:06:06 GMT -5
Regarding Aiken, I think you will start to see stories about who conducted the surgery, why it was conducted so quickly after his last start, and whether he is open to his medicals being looked over by MLB Teams. Right or not he is going to be scrutinized by a lot of people. He left his last start a little over a week ago and then broke the news himself (post-surgery) that he had his arm worked on. I thought that was a mistake when I just read this thread. There's no way he already had it!
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Post by soxfanatic on Mar 27, 2015 7:08:18 GMT -5
You take him. It's not like any of the college pitchers are safe bets when it comes to arm health.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Mar 27, 2015 10:40:59 GMT -5
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 27, 2015 11:21:17 GMT -5
I'd have to think Aiken would be thought of more favorably than Hoffman, who went #9 last year with TJ surgery. Fuzzy comparisons that probably don't mean anything, but Hoffman was ranked behind Rodon before injury, and Rodon went behind Aiken in 2014. Aiken is also younger, which I'm guessing would be more favorable coming off a surgery in comparison.
Maybe it is my biased towards a familiar face or ignorance of the MLB draft, but I'd be ecstatic if we got Aiken, injury or not. What really sells it for me is such a young kid who not only has 3 good pitches, but has a 60 control rating (2014 MLB.com draft list).
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Post by Guidas on Mar 27, 2015 11:34:01 GMT -5
I'm a little more cautious if only because you don't know who else may be available, and because as prevalent as it is, there is still a significant poor recovery rate from TJ surgery. Some guys come back fine or with even 1-3 more MPH. There is still a double digit fail rate though. Now if the Sox were picking in the bottom third of the draft I'd be all over this. But at 7, I'd prefer to wait and see who else is there.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 27, 2015 12:27:24 GMT -5
They won't make the decision in March so yeah they'll wait.
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Post by moonstone2 on Mar 27, 2015 13:07:04 GMT -5
I'm a little more cautious if only because you don't know who else may be available, and because as prevalent as it is, there is still a significant poor recovery rate from TJ surgery. Some guys come back fine or with even 1-3 more MPH. There is still a double digit fail rate though. Now if the Sox were picking in the bottom third of the draft I'd be all over this. But at 7, I'd prefer to wait and see who else is there. The fail rate is roughly 20% and that's just for major league pitchers who have Tommy John and return to pitch in at least one major league game. Of those that do return roughly 40% will see their careers end after less than 100 more major league innings. The chance that a player both returns, AND returns to their previous form? About half. Also in a draft pick's case, you have to consider the lost year of development time, especially for a player who has already missed a year.
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Post by jmei on Mar 27, 2015 13:09:25 GMT -5
because as prevalent as it is, there is still a significant poor recovery rate from TJ surgery. Some guys come back fine or with even 1-3 more MPH. There is still a double digit fail rate though. Here's the thing, though: most of the studies which have backed double-digit failure rates defined failure as never again pitching in the major leagues. I've never found that to be great definition for failure, since if you take any population of major-league pitchers, a small but significant chunk of them won't pitch in the majors again a year later solely due to performance issues. For instance, guys like Pedro Figueroa and Cory Gearrin are counted as "failures" even though those guys, even had they stayed healthy and avoided TJ, probably weren't going to be major leaguers anyways. Those guys slightly inflate the rate of "failures." Almost everyone comes back and at least pitches competitively again ( this article cites 97%).
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Post by jmei on Mar 27, 2015 13:11:56 GMT -5
I'm a little more cautious if only because you don't know who else may be available, and because as prevalent as it is, there is still a significant poor recovery rate from TJ surgery. Some guys come back fine or with even 1-3 more MPH. There is still a double digit fail rate though. Now if the Sox were picking in the bottom third of the draft I'd be all over this. But at 7, I'd prefer to wait and see who else is there. The fail rate is roughly 20%. Also in a draft pick's case, you have to consider the lost year of development time, especially for a player who has already missed a year. It's closer to 10% with more recent data and including minor leaguers (which is really the pool of comparables for Aiken): www.hardballtimes.com/an-analysis-of-available-tommy-john-surgery-data/ADD: I'll note that in particular, the return rate for younger players is considerably higher than the overall return rate.
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 27, 2015 13:25:37 GMT -5
They won't make the decision in March so yeah they'll wait. I'm not sure how my post was read to suggest anything about a decision already being made or should be made. Aiken is an very interesting prospect, and not much will change from his value standpoint between now and then, but of course we don't know if he/other's will be available on draft day. Most of the analysis that will push players up and down draft boards will be done over he next 3 months. I thought this went without saying, or was already covered in the thread. Anyways color me intrigued. I think the recent news would suggest a better chance that he would be available than before he had surgery. Unless we hear about complications, I can't imagine many scenarios where getting Aiken at #7 is a bad pick.
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Post by moonstone2 on Mar 27, 2015 13:35:01 GMT -5
The fail rate is roughly 20%. Also in a draft pick's case, you have to consider the lost year of development time, especially for a player who has already missed a year. It's closer to 10% with more recent data and including minor leaguers (which is really the pool of comparables for Aiken): www.hardballtimes.com/an-analysis-of-available-tommy-john-surgery-data/ADD: I'll note that in particular, the return rate for younger players is considerably higher than the overall return rate. Both of these studies are highly flawed for this situation. First off the study you linked includes in the numerator all pitchers who returned to pitch at their previous level of play regardless of how they performed when they returned. Hence a huge AAA prospect who pitched one game in the GCL would be categorized as a success while a journeyman major league player who pitched one game in the GCL would not. Obviously if you include players for whom the bar is much lower, there will be a much higher success rate. Neither study, factors in time of recovery, number of innings pitched after recover, or success after the surgery all of which are important factors. For the #7 pick in the draft should have a higher bar. You are taking him on the idea that he recovers within 12-18 months to a previous level of stuff. The chances that Brady Aiken ever pitches with stuff again worthy of a #1 draft pick are significantly lower than 90 percent. If Aiken five years from now throws 85 in Lowell, that's not a successful outcome. It's misleading studies such as these that cause kids with otherwise healthy arms to walk into a Doctor's office to have a risky elective surgery they don't need.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 27, 2015 18:34:20 GMT -5
I'm a little more cautious if only because you don't know who else may be available, and because as prevalent as it is, there is still a significant poor recovery rate from TJ surgery. Some guys come back fine or with even 1-3 more MPH. There is still a double digit fail rate though. Now if the Sox were picking in the bottom third of the draft I'd be all over this. But at 7, I'd prefer to wait and see who else is there. The fail rate is roughly 20% and that's just for major league pitchers who have Tommy John and return to pitch in at least one major league game. Of those that do return roughly 40% will see their careers end after less than 100 more major league innings. The chance that a player both returns, AND returns to their previous form? About half. Also in a draft pick's case, you have to consider the lost year of development time, especially for a player who has already missed a year. The medical literature quotes between 95-98% success. Most orthopedist a I know consider it as close to a sure thing as there is. Failures tend to be tied to choice in corrective technique or anatomical issues (it used to be, say, congenital lack of a palmaris longus) that led to modification of the standard technique. Also, meta-analyses and the large-scale studies they're derived from include patients obviously NOT at the elite performance levels, and surgeries performed by, say, orthopedists working with residents or fellows who are much less experienced. That the fail rate is so low under those circumstances is a good predictor of success rates when surgeries are performed by expert surgeons under ideal conditions. Aiken's surgeon is an excellent one. And the 20% fail rate you mention, as Jmei noted, has an inherent fallacy built into it's end-point. Attrition rates for pitchers are high anyway, and the AAAA guys outnumber solid MLBers probably 2-3 to one, if not more. So I'm much more inclined to say it's probably more like a 2-3% "true" fail rate. Expecting a 27-y/o who's pitched 13 MLB innings to get back to MLB after a year and a half off **without** injury (even healthy in the minors) is unrealistic. Guys quit, hurt other body parts, just aren't that good, etc. A more appropriate cohort is almost impossible to come up with, but looking at guys like Hoffman or Giolito is a pretty good indicator. I would love to see them take Aiken. People are fretting over the extra year off, but he's not 19 until August, meaning he'll be back as a full-timer at 19 next summer, the same age Trey Ball was last year. With his polish, he could still easily be in MLB within a couple of years, at 22.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 27, 2015 18:37:02 GMT -5
Back to healthy draft prospects....
Funkhouser vs. Georgia Tech: 7 IP 4 H 1 ER 2 BB 7 K
Tate vs. Long Beach State: 9 IP 3 H 0 ER 1 BB 10 K
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 27, 2015 22:13:43 GMT -5
Tate is earning himself some money.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 27, 2015 22:35:47 GMT -5
Tate is earning himself some money. Seriously. I'd say the conversion to starting is going allright.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 28, 2015 1:18:43 GMT -5
Both of these studies are highly flawed for this situation. First off the study you linked includes in the numerator all pitchers who returned to pitch at their previous level of play regardless of how they performed when they returned. Hence a huge AAA prospect who pitched one game in the GCL would be categorized as a success while a journeyman major league player who pitched one game in the GCL would not. Obviously if you include players for whom the bar is much lower, there will be a much higher success rate. Neither study, factors in time of recovery, number of innings pitched after recover, or success after the surgery all of which are important factors. For the #7 pick in the draft should have a higher bar. You are taking him on the idea that he recovers within 12-18 months to a previous level of stuff. The chances that Brady Aiken ever pitches with stuff again worthy of a #1 draft pick are significantly lower than 90 percent. If Aiken five years from now throws 85 in Lowell, that's not a successful outcome. It's misleading studies such as these that cause kids with otherwise healthy arms to walk into a Doctor's office to have a risky elective surgery they don't need. I've never heard of any orthopedic surgeon performing ulnar collateral ligament replacement on a healthy patient. That's absurd, totally unethical medically, and completely unjustifiable not just for the surgeon, but for the anesthesiologist who's doing the nerve block and providing the general anesthetic, or at least heavy sedation, both of which carry the risk of airway compromise and death...not to mention potential nerve injury from the brachial plexus block, laryngospasm during emergence, or circulatory collapse from induction. I would be *astounded* to hear of any physician willing to open themselves up to astronomical malpractice awards and criminal charges by performing elective TJ surgery. Sorry, but you'd have to show me an instance of it. I see NO way that happens in this country, with a 1 in 20 chance of failure and getting slapped with a million-dollar lawsuit? Uh-uh.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 28, 2015 12:23:34 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel ?@kileymcd Saw Daz Cameron last night. I was kinda eh on him over the summer relative to the hype. Scouts are eh on him this spring. I continue with eh
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Post by Guidas on Mar 29, 2015 12:59:55 GMT -5
Update from Keith Law on Brendan Rodgers Juan Hillman (ESPN Insider insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/post?id=3743). Upbeat on both, with him tagging Rodgers as Top Prep Hitter and Hillman a late 1st, early 2nd round guy. Excerpts: Rodgers has a simple right-handed swing that produces hard contact, both line-drive and power, thanks to strong hands and moderate hip rotation, and he projects to be a plus hitter with at least average home-run power down the road. In the field he has everything you'd want to see in a shortstop except speed, with soft hands, great footwork, and a 65 or 70 arm. He's a below-average runner, which is often used as a proxy for a shortstop's potential range, but I have never seen him unable to get to a ball that an above-average major league defender would field.Hillman's delivery is very easy and simple, with little effort in his arm action, and that deception is outstanding. Hitters just don't see the ball coming out of his hand, and as he fills out -- there's some projection here to end up in the 90-94 mph range.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 31, 2015 11:54:21 GMT -5
Obviously no info but something to look forward to when it comes out.
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 31, 2015 14:10:08 GMT -5
Obviously no info but something to look forward to when it comes out. Is he being sarcastic here? I really can't tell. I'd venture a guess that any reliable information in early April on who a team would pick at #7 wouldn't be all that reliable, and this post was in the midst of a couple sarcastic answers.
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Post by taftreign on Mar 31, 2015 14:24:25 GMT -5
Obviously no info but something to look forward to when it comes out. How can he have reliable information as to who the Red Sox will pick at #7 unless you know which six prospects are going to be drafted ahead of them? My answer to this question allows for two main possibilities. One being they will select Aiken because they believe his injury will drop him to the 7 pick within a fairly significant probability. The second being they will look to make a deal with a prospect that may otherwise not be a top 10 pick to save money and target specific players in round 3 or later. Generally speaking when you have a high pick you want a premium prospect ( my thoughts as well), but I think you could make an argument that the premium prospects are very limited in this draft. It is logical if they see a top tier of 4 or 5 players (Rogers, Tate, Kirby, Aiken etc . .) and a very large second tier of say 10 to 15 players it would be wise to select the player that they believe gives them as much upside while saving the money for others. Under this rationale it would be quite plausible for their to be true reliable information as to who the front office and scouting department has their site set on. Just for giggles outside of the normal Aiken, Kirby, Tate, Funkhouser type of players being discussed on this board who would be that prospect you would be most willing to make a predraft moneysaving deal with? For me I could see C Chris Betts, Wilson HS of Calif, as one target. From the pitching perspective I look towards RHP Mike Nikorak, Stroudsburg HS of PA.
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Post by borisman on Mar 31, 2015 14:28:06 GMT -5
The only reliable info is that other than Tate, if Aiken is there the Sox would pick him.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 31, 2015 14:50:53 GMT -5
Come on guys it's obviously speculation but Kiley has shown that he does have reliable sources so it's interesting to hear what he's hearing. It's better than just throwing your hands up and say who the heck knows what's gonna happen.
The last time the Red Sox pick 7th he connected them to Clint Frazier very early on. It obviously didn't happen but it turnout pretty reliable as even Frazier thought he was going to the Red Sox.
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Post by kman22 on Mar 31, 2015 15:01:03 GMT -5
Obviously no info but something to look forward to when it comes out. Is he being sarcastic here? I really can't tell. I'd venture a guess that any reliable information in early April on who a team would pick at #7 wouldn't be all that reliable, and this post was in the midst of a couple sarcastic answers. Sarcasm or Aiken was my take on that response.
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