Post by darkmatter1989 on Aug 9, 2014 8:27:27 GMT -5
We all wan't to get ever closer to solving the issue of placing a batters/pitchers true value based on their production. "Is this hitter/pitcher getting 'lucky' or is it skill? Will they perform better or worse next year?" etc. Until Hit f/x data becomes public, we won't know... but I'm working on a way to partially solve this issue. Even when and or if Hit f/x data does become public, what I am working on should still be usable for when there is no Hit f/x data available (minor league games, High School, etc). That's where Contact Grade comes in (working title... any other suggestions are welcome)
It comes in the form of a seemingly wishy/washy system that many statisticians fear... JUDGEMENT. Wait, don't leave just yet! There are specific guidelines to help out (akin to a scorers judgement of errors)!
Below is the 'What is Contact Grade' information/grading procedure (work in progress)
Here is an example image of how a contact grade sheet would look like (shortened so the image can fit):
Once data is collected, you can then make a formula that gives a percentage of contact quality based (aka, contact grade.) Other formulas can also be devised as you likely can see in the picture. I'm still working on the weight values that should be applied. Using the slugging percentage formula isn't very helpful since obviously a Grade 4 groundball shouldn't be of the same value as a Grade 4 linedrive (or even a grade 3).
I Know UZR exists however it's purpose is slightly different of course. However if a similar and or better system exists already, then I apologize for wasting everyone's time. If not, then if anyone has any suggestions of how the values should be weighted please let me know! Any other suggestions and or questions are welcome as well.
Note: Perhaps isn't the best place to showcase this. If not, I apologize.
~Joseph A.
It comes in the form of a seemingly wishy/washy system that many statisticians fear... JUDGEMENT. Wait, don't leave just yet! There are specific guidelines to help out (akin to a scorers judgement of errors)!
Below is the 'What is Contact Grade' information/grading procedure (work in progress)
What is Contact Grade?
Contact grade is a sabermetric that uses the judgement of a scorekeeper to give a more accurate interpretation of the quality of contact the hitter made/pitcher had hit for hit and out for out. With Hit f/x not being available to the public (at the time of this glossary was made), this system tries to at least provide a more clear picture of the types of contact a hitter is making or a pitcher is giving up. Also, due to the nature of this system, even when Hit f/x data becomes public, many amateur scouts and coaches all the way down to little league will be able to use this as an alternative. Why? It’s just as easy as filling in a single on a statsheet.
What are the criteria?
There are 8 criteria and 4 grades for each criteria.
They are the following:
Flyball outs (FBO#)
Flyball Hits (FBH#)
Linedrive outs (LDO#)
Linedrive hits (LDH#)
Groundball outs (GBO#)
Groundball hits (GBH#)
Popfly outs (PFO)
Popfly hits (PFH)
All flyballs, linedrives, and groundballs have grades with the exception of popflys. When a batter makes contact on a pitch, whichever catergory it belongs to is added just by 1 (just as a hit would add to the total).
How do you grade the contact?
As stated prior, each criteria has 4 grades. When judging contact quality, you do not judge it JUST based off of it’s speed. Contact quality should also take location in consideration as well. However it is still not as simple as that because not all hard hit balls carry the same through the air due to rotation, wind, and other factors. This can also apply to certain groundballs.
Grading is of course up to interpretation as well though there are guidelines. If a hitter for example slaps a groundball through the shortstop and the 3rd baseman with average speed, and you conclude that is what the hitter was trying to do, the grade for that hit would be a GBO3. It being average contact with extremely good location gives it a bonus. Be sure to try to keep this in mind when judging.
The other aspects of judging are not as subjective though and the example used above would be only ever happen sparingly. So what are the 4 grades and how to you judge them? It’s pretty simple.
4 = Amazing location + amazing speed or amazing location + good speed or vice versa. Practically a guaranteed hit.
3 = Good location + good speed/amazing location or average speed or vice versa. Very good chance to be a hit.
2 = Average location + average speed/good location + mediocre speed or vise versa. Average chance to be a hit.
1 = Poor location + poor speed/ average location + very poor speed or vice versa. Has no right to be a hit.
This system applies to flyballs, linedrives, and groundballs and not popfly’s. Popfly’s are of course always bad contact so they get their own category. Some popfly’s might run the risk of being counted as FBO1/FBH1 so to discern the difference, be aware of the trajectory. Most FBO1/FBH1 contact should be judged as ball’s with 'carry/loft'. Popfly’s should generally only be reserved for the infield (or foul territory).
Lastly, errors should also be graded as well (filed as an out obviously). This is because we are grading contact quality and NOT the result of what happens on the field. We are more or less trying to see how influential contact grade in regards to outs vs. hits.
Follow these guidelines and grading should be relatively easy.
Contact grade is a sabermetric that uses the judgement of a scorekeeper to give a more accurate interpretation of the quality of contact the hitter made/pitcher had hit for hit and out for out. With Hit f/x not being available to the public (at the time of this glossary was made), this system tries to at least provide a more clear picture of the types of contact a hitter is making or a pitcher is giving up. Also, due to the nature of this system, even when Hit f/x data becomes public, many amateur scouts and coaches all the way down to little league will be able to use this as an alternative. Why? It’s just as easy as filling in a single on a statsheet.
What are the criteria?
There are 8 criteria and 4 grades for each criteria.
They are the following:
Flyball outs (FBO#)
Flyball Hits (FBH#)
Linedrive outs (LDO#)
Linedrive hits (LDH#)
Groundball outs (GBO#)
Groundball hits (GBH#)
Popfly outs (PFO)
Popfly hits (PFH)
All flyballs, linedrives, and groundballs have grades with the exception of popflys. When a batter makes contact on a pitch, whichever catergory it belongs to is added just by 1 (just as a hit would add to the total).
How do you grade the contact?
As stated prior, each criteria has 4 grades. When judging contact quality, you do not judge it JUST based off of it’s speed. Contact quality should also take location in consideration as well. However it is still not as simple as that because not all hard hit balls carry the same through the air due to rotation, wind, and other factors. This can also apply to certain groundballs.
Grading is of course up to interpretation as well though there are guidelines. If a hitter for example slaps a groundball through the shortstop and the 3rd baseman with average speed, and you conclude that is what the hitter was trying to do, the grade for that hit would be a GBO3. It being average contact with extremely good location gives it a bonus. Be sure to try to keep this in mind when judging.
The other aspects of judging are not as subjective though and the example used above would be only ever happen sparingly. So what are the 4 grades and how to you judge them? It’s pretty simple.
4 = Amazing location + amazing speed or amazing location + good speed or vice versa. Practically a guaranteed hit.
3 = Good location + good speed/amazing location or average speed or vice versa. Very good chance to be a hit.
2 = Average location + average speed/good location + mediocre speed or vise versa. Average chance to be a hit.
1 = Poor location + poor speed/ average location + very poor speed or vice versa. Has no right to be a hit.
This system applies to flyballs, linedrives, and groundballs and not popfly’s. Popfly’s are of course always bad contact so they get their own category. Some popfly’s might run the risk of being counted as FBO1/FBH1 so to discern the difference, be aware of the trajectory. Most FBO1/FBH1 contact should be judged as ball’s with 'carry/loft'. Popfly’s should generally only be reserved for the infield (or foul territory).
Lastly, errors should also be graded as well (filed as an out obviously). This is because we are grading contact quality and NOT the result of what happens on the field. We are more or less trying to see how influential contact grade in regards to outs vs. hits.
Follow these guidelines and grading should be relatively easy.
Once data is collected, you can then make a formula that gives a percentage of contact quality based (aka, contact grade.) Other formulas can also be devised as you likely can see in the picture. I'm still working on the weight values that should be applied. Using the slugging percentage formula isn't very helpful since obviously a Grade 4 groundball shouldn't be of the same value as a Grade 4 linedrive (or even a grade 3).
I Know UZR exists however it's purpose is slightly different of course. However if a similar and or better system exists already, then I apologize for wasting everyone's time. If not, then if anyone has any suggestions of how the values should be weighted please let me know! Any other suggestions and or questions are welcome as well.
Note: Perhaps isn't the best place to showcase this. If not, I apologize.
~Joseph A.
