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Post by bluechip on Jun 5, 2013 20:21:08 GMT -5
Peter Gammons @pgammo Draft is so unpredictable that it appears the 'Stros and Cubs @1-2 are in quandaries, and teams think the Rockies @3 go 1B Dominic Smith. that would classify as a woah If Bryant somehow fell I us I'd be ecstatic. I bet he would not fall beyond Twins.
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Post by rider on Jun 5, 2013 20:26:46 GMT -5
If Bryant somehow fell I us I'd be ecstatic. I bet he would not fall beyond Twins. It would already take a crazy scenario to get him passed 3 but it's possible if the recent tweet was true. Something like 1. Gray 2. Appel 3. Smith 4. Stewart 5. Shipley/ Frazier/ Moran 6. Meadows/ Peterson (underslot) 7. Bryant Don't see Cleveland passing but crazier things can happen, although I still expect him to go #3
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Post by mainesox on Jun 5, 2013 20:28:40 GMT -5
If Bryant somehow fell I us I'd be ecstatic. I bet he would not fall beyond Twins. Which would likely cause Stewart to fall to the Sox, which I would also be ecstatic about. I say go for it Colorado...
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Post by templeusox on Jun 5, 2013 21:03:27 GMT -5
Brian MacPherson @brianmacp The message from Cherington, Sawdaye was consistent: Line up the board, take the best player left when No. 7 (and No. 45, No. 81) comes up.2 Thats what I like to hear At least it's good to see they changed their strategy from last season.
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Post by bluechip on Jun 5, 2013 21:10:24 GMT -5
I bet he would not fall beyond Twins. Which would likely cause Stewart to fall to the Sox, which I would also be ecstatic about. I say go for it Colorado...
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Post by awokennightmare on Jun 5, 2013 21:24:12 GMT -5
I really believe all of these crazy last minute scenarios are just posturing by the clubs to try to get the players they want at a lower cost. The teams can easily leak false information knowing full well that the respected sources will report it which makes us all start believing its true. I know Correia was a surprise last year, but I doubt that teams are this in doubt at this point leading up to the draft that names are being paired with teams we've never heard in those spots before. My gut is telling me that this draft will pretty much go as we all expect. I am prepared to eat my words tomorrow, but i'm sticking with the consensus for now.
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Post by bluechip on Jun 5, 2013 21:28:46 GMT -5
I really believe all of these crazy last minute scenarios are just posturing by the clubs to try to get the players they want at a lower cost. The teams can easily leak false information knowing full well that the respected sources will report it which makes us all start believing its true. I know Correia was a surprise last year, but I doubt that teams are this in doubt at this point leading up to the draft that names are being paired with teams we've never heard in those spots before. My gut is telling me that this draft will pretty much go as we all expect. I am prepared to eat my words tomorrow, but i'm sticking with the consensus for now. It just takes one team who has a different draft board than others to throw a wrench into the process. Then again, Callis also had one year where he predicted the first 14 picks exactly right. Either way, it should be fun.
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Post by njsox on Jun 5, 2013 21:30:19 GMT -5
Just watched some Clint Frazier hitting videos and I cam away impressed. He has a vicious right-handed swing reminiscent of Gary Sheffield. He should be able to turn around just about any fastball from day one. I know there is a lot of talk about him not being able to hit a curve etc., but that is ridiculous to say about a guy coming out of high school, no? How much could Mike Trout have really shown coming out of NJ where the competition is nowhere near as advanced as Georgia? It's all about projection and I would definitely take Frazier and his vicious bat speed in the hopes that he can be taught to recognize pitches, use the whole field, etc. Out of the players possibly available to the Sox at 7 I think I am finally firmly locked in on Stewart first, then Frazier. If both are gone I will be disappointed initially and will just have to hope that Sox scouting can come up with the Savoy Special! Again, the concern deals with his ability to hit the crappy high school he currently faces, nevermind the more advanced breaking stuff he will see as he progress through the minors. How much trouble is he actually having hitting the current "crappy" HS breaking balls? He is hitting close to .500 with a ton of home runs. He has no reason to change anything he is doing right now. The challenge will come when he sees advanced pitching just like the challenge that faces all prospects. His ridiculous bat speed says that if he can make the mental adjustment and keep his hands back then he will be able to hit breaking stuff as well as top end velocity. I bet if he were a lefty he would be called the best natural hitter in the draft.
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Post by mainesox on Jun 5, 2013 21:37:51 GMT -5
Again, the concern deals with his ability to hit the crappy high school he currently faces, nevermind the more advanced breaking stuff he will see as he progress through the minors. How much trouble is he actually having hitting the current "crappy" HS breaking balls? He is hitting close to .500 with a ton of home runs. He has no reason to change anything he is doing right now. The challenge will come when he sees advanced pitching just like the challenge that faces all prospects. His ridiculous bat speed says that if he can make the mental adjustment and keep his hands back then he will be able to hit breaking stuff as well as top end velocity. I bet if he were a lefty he would be called the best natural hitter in the draft. This is my question too, and I haven't seen a good answer to it yet. He's crushing HS pitching as it is, presumably by looking for fastballs, so is it really that he's having a hard time hitting breaking stuff, or is it that he's not even looking for it and just sitting fastball?
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 5, 2013 22:38:52 GMT -5
keithlaw ?@keithlaw 9m I've heard this too. RT @r_mack: @keithlaw Any truth to rumor of Rockies taking Dominic Smith at # 3? (Peter Gammons tweeted earlier)
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Post by bluechip on Jun 5, 2013 22:58:16 GMT -5
keithlaw ?@keithlaw 9m I've heard this too. RT @r_mack: @keithlaw Any truth to rumor of Rockies taking Dominic Smith at # 3? (Peter Gammons tweeted earlier) I am guessing this might be a smoke screen. If not...
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Post by bluechip on Jun 5, 2013 23:03:29 GMT -5
Here is a nice under slot rumor mock:
1-Astros-Moran 2-Cubs-Gray 3-Rockies-Smith 4-Twins-McGuire 5-Indians-Bryant 6-Marlins-Shipley 7-Red Sox-Appel
Edit: BTW, if several other teams are also going below slot early, the advantage has to decrease because those other teams will be competing for the limited supply of players who fall.
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Post by mainesox on Jun 5, 2013 23:10:21 GMT -5
I don't think you'll see multiple high teams going under slot. If the Astros really do go with Moran that bumps either Appel or Gray to the Rockies at which point they probably abandon the idea of going under slot for Smith.
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Post by bluechip on Jun 5, 2013 23:15:18 GMT -5
I don't think you'll see multiple high teams going under slot. If the Astros really do go with Moran that bumps either Appel or Gray to the Rockies at which point they probably abandon the idea of going under slot for Smith. I agree. I do not see it happening.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Jun 5, 2013 23:20:25 GMT -5
Let's say the Cubs pass on Gray and that Colorado goes with Smith, I could see this happening:
1. Houston - Mark Appel 2. Chicago - Kris Bryant 3. Colorado - Dominic Smith 4. Minnesota - Jonathan Gray 5. Cleveland - Colin Moran 6. Miami - Meadows/Shipley 7. Boston - Kohl Stewart 8. Kansas City - Shipley/Ball 9. Pittsburgh - Clint Frazier
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Post by bluechip on Jun 5, 2013 23:33:50 GMT -5
What could happen is that Rockies take Smith, Twins take Stewart, Indians take Bryant. That could drop Moran to the Red Sox.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 5, 2013 23:36:27 GMT -5
What could happen is that Rockies take Smith, Twins take Stewart, Indians take Bryant. That could drop Moran to the Red Sox. But it seems that people aren't as interested in that one. You can "mock" the draft to fit your interest however you want really.
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Post by widewordofsport on Jun 6, 2013 0:08:49 GMT -5
I'm more suggesting this as a question for discussion, than to argue.
I've seen a bunch of people talk about Frazier's bat speed over Meadows'. I get that bad speed is correlated (but not 100%) to strength, and so it really plays a large factor in power, but wouldn't both swing mechanics and strength play a role, also, somewhat independent of bat speed?
There is obviously a difference between momentum (bat speed*mass of bat) and force (producing acceleration to alter the velocity of a baseball). (You could swing a feather 200 mph at a ball and not get very far). Is the strength required to produce bat speed and the strength required to produce acceleration of the bat through the ball close enough to the same thing that they don't matter? Or are there examples of players with high bat speed who don't maximize their power (independent of swing plane).
Feel free to ignore if it's too dumb a question... I've been working late all week.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 6, 2013 1:10:10 GMT -5
I'm more suggesting this as a question for discussion, than to argue. I've seen a bunch of people talk about Frazier's bat speed over Meadows'. I get that bad speed is correlated (but not 100%) to strength, and so it really plays a large factor in power, but wouldn't both swing mechanics and strength play a role, also, somewhat independent of bat speed? There is obviously a difference between momentum (bat speed*mass of bat) and force (producing acceleration to alter the velocity of a baseball). (You could swing a feather 200 mph at a ball and not get very far). Is the strength required to produce bat speed and the strength required to produce acceleration of the bat through the ball close enough to the same thing that they don't matter? Or are there examples of players with high bat speed who don't maximize their power (independent of swing plane). Feel free to ignore if it's too dumb a question... I've been working late all week. Bat speed is probably more about wrist strength than any other kind of strength. And I don't think that it can be improved that much by lifting weights. But yeah definitely maintaining bat speed with a heavier bat is affected by all kinds of strength. I think there's a limit. There's also agility involved. The science of hitting is pretty complicated.
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Post by mainesox on Jun 6, 2013 6:55:09 GMT -5
What could happen is that Rockies take Smith, Twins take Stewart, Indians take Bryant. That could drop Moran to the Red Sox. Possible, but I really doubt the Twins would pass on Bryant.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jun 6, 2013 7:35:16 GMT -5
If you watch Frazier's videos, it seems like he is just waiting for a pitch to drive. He is so confident that he will hit a HR that he just waits for that grooved pitch and BAMM! I'm not sure if this is totally a good thing but what would an intelligent player do in that situation, with his bat speed? He is a man among boys on several levels.
If I remember correctly, he hit twice as many HR this year than Brandon Moss did at the same school. My concern is that he is a 1 trick pony as he doesn't look good in the field defensively but of all the realistic picks we might get, I'd take Stewart...then Frazier and I don't think there is much chance we get either of them. The total package I see tells me Frazier will be as advertised.
If Meadows has 4 HR as has been noted above, I think he might well just look the part and be living off Frazier's coat tails to a degree. I'd rather they didn't pick Meadows. I find it unlikely that the Sox will pick Meadows. If I had to bet right now, I think we end up with Shipley as I don't see why Cleveland, the Marlins or the Twins would all pass up on Stewart and Frazier.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jun 6, 2013 7:40:04 GMT -5
Assuming Shipley is next on the draft board, which is a huge assumption. I'm just saying I don't see how we can expect Frazier or Stewart to drop to us. Realistically, we are assuming some of these teams are dummies. I guess statistically, the likelihood of 1 or 2 teams having a much different projection than the other teams is absolutely possible. I'm just hoping. Frazier or Stewart would be huge hits for us, on top of a tremendous farm already in place. What we get from this year's draft is to a larger degree than normal tied into that top pick.
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Post by bluechip on Jun 6, 2013 7:47:20 GMT -5
Assuming Shipley is next on the draft board, which is a huge assumption. I'm just saying I don't see how we can expect Frazier or Stewart to drop to us. Realistically, we are assuming some of these teams are dummies. I guess statistically, the likelihood of 1 or 2 teams having a much different projection than the other teams is absolutely possible. I'm just hoping. Frazier or Stewart would be huge hits for us, on top of a tremendous farm already in place. What we get from this year's draft is to a larger degree than normal tied into that top pick. There is a very good chance that Frazier falls this far, if not further. Besides the top four picks. Moran is reportedly higher on Cleveland's draft board and could be higher on Marlins. Shipley and Peterson have been linked to Miami for a while.
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Post by jmei on Jun 6, 2013 7:48:03 GMT -5
I'm more suggesting this as a question for discussion, than to argue. I've seen a bunch of people talk about Frazier's bat speed over Meadows'. I get that bad speed is correlated (but not 100%) to strength, and so it really plays a large factor in power, but wouldn't both swing mechanics and strength play a role, also, somewhat independent of bat speed? There is obviously a difference between momentum (bat speed*mass of bat) and force (producing acceleration to alter the velocity of a baseball). (You could swing a feather 200 mph at a ball and not get very far). Is the strength required to produce bat speed and the strength required to produce acceleration of the bat through the ball close enough to the same thing that they don't matter? Or are there examples of players with high bat speed who don't maximize their power (independent of swing plane). Feel free to ignore if it's too dumb a question... I've been working late all week. Really, all that matters in terms of power is the speed of the bat at contact (i.e. bat speed), the weight of the bat, and the angle of the ball off the bat. Swing mechanics and strength are the major components of bat speed, and they don't have much effect on power outside of that if we're ignoring swing plane.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 6, 2013 8:05:39 GMT -5
Great point. In fact I think I remember reading some study a couple years ago that specifically looked at the angle of the bat in the swing path. Basically said that the optimum swing path to generate loft to make balls carry had to include a path that rose in a 37 to 45 degree angle. When you hear "flat swing" or a guy has no loft in his swing (Lars Anderson, Sweeney) it is often because he is not generating this strike angle at the point of contact. All else could be perfect, but the result will be ground balls or line drives that do not rise as opposed to rising line drives or arcing fly balls.
If I can find the study, I'll pass it along, but I think this was also cover in that book "The Physics of Baseball" - which, btw, has a great quote in it regarding bat size vs. bat speed. The basic assertion was bat speed was much more important to hitting home runs or long drives than bat size. So the question is asked,:
"Then why do these power guys try to swing the biggest bat they can handle?"
the researcher's answer:
"Because they're stupid."
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