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Post by ikonos on Jun 6, 2013 11:49:34 GMT -5
It's outsie the box, but is there anything that presents the Sox from lowballing their first round pick, using the extra money to sign tough signs later in the draft (like Manaea) and then getting the 8th pick in the 2014 draft (which is supposed to be better) if the first rounder doesn't sign? UGH.. we have already talked about this at length.. If you don't sign your first pick, your lose that money, it can't be reallocated. The Red Sox are not picking a player at #7 with intentions of not signing them to get a pick next year period. You are right you cant use the money to sign later picks in the draft but if 2-3 of the players they are targeting for that pick are gone they might as well employ this scenario and take tougher signs later in the draft. If it works out they get a player for cheap at the top and probably a better player later in the draft. If it doesn't you step down one spot and lose having the player in your system a year early but Sox will get 8th pick next year in a deeper draft and the pool money associated with that pick. Teams usually dont do that as they value having the player in their system early more and if they dont negotiate in good faith it ruins their reputation and am sure teams dont like that up to some extent.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 6, 2013 11:51:10 GMT -5
Just got these evals from a college baseball head coach I know well:
Colin Moran – Think he'll hit better than Bryant Braden Shipley – Great arm action, great athlete Clint Frazier – Great bat speed Dominic Smith – Barry Bonds is his hitting coach! Really like him.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 6, 2013 11:55:46 GMT -5
I guess I didn't read all 65 pages. Apologies......I will duck out and read from here on out. Nah its ok he probably didn't realize that was you 1st post. Can they low ball the players and risk them not signing? yes they can do it. Will they? Most certainly not they will try to do everything they can to sign whomever they pick. They don't usually pick this high so they probably will try to take advantage of the opportunity. The 2014 draft is looking enticing with high ceiling HS guys and a strong College crop but a lot can happen between here and June 6 2014 plus punting a draft(If they don't sign the 1st round pick they lose almost half their bonus pool) can leave a glaring hole in the organization.
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Post by ikonos on Jun 6, 2013 11:56:38 GMT -5
Great point. In fact I think I remember reading some study a couple years ago that specifically looked at the angle of the bat in the swing path. Basically said that the optimum swing path to generate loft to make balls carry had to include a path that rose in a 37 to 45 degree angle. When you hear "flat swing" or a guy has no loft in his swing (Lars Anderson, Sweeney) it is often because he is not generating this strike angle at the point of contact. All else could be perfect, but the result will be ground balls or line drives that do not rise as opposed to rising line drives or arcing fly balls. If I can find the study, I'll pass it along, but I think this was also cover in that book "The Physics of Baseball" - which, btw, has a great quote in it regarding bat size vs. bat speed. The basic assertion was bat speed was much more important to hitting home runs or long drives than bat size. So the question is asked,: "Then why do these power guys try to swing the biggest bat they can handle?" the researcher's answer: "Because they're stupid." There is something to be said for Physics by itself and Physics with a human psyche attached to it. Its possible a heavier stronger guy may not be able (or feel) to control the lighter bat to his optimum comfort level to generate the same bat speed while he could do it with a slightly heavier bat. With lighter bat he might be getting ahead of the ball? It may not be as simple as them being stupid but if I were the researcher I will also think the same of those "stupid under-educated jock" ball players.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 6, 2013 12:02:13 GMT -5
Also got this from my college baseball coach buddy:
"I don't like Kohl Stewart – bad arm action and a major injury waiting to happen."
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Post by charliezink16 on Jun 6, 2013 12:02:54 GMT -5
Before the NFL Draft every year, I usually make "bold predictions" with others on draft boards. So I want to hear people go out on a limb and make one for tonight. Ill start:
One of Appel/Stewart will fall to Boston.
The consensus on this board, and throughout the industry, has been that the top 6 will go like this: 1) Appel/Gray 2) Appel/Gray 3) Bryant 4) Stewart 5) Moran 6) Meadows/Pederson
I just don't understand why everyone seems so certain that this will occur. For one, the MLB draft seems to be the most unpredictable, simply because teams rarely draft for need (as players will be stashed in the minors for a couple of years). Especially under the new CBA, we've only witnessed one draft year, and none of us know which teams will stick with last years philosophy, and which teams will abandon it. Secondly, the first pick is still not set in stone. Houston surprised most of everyone last year after selecting Correa #1 overall, so maybe they do it again, and go with Moran, which in turn would change draft boards. No one knows. Finally, I don't buy everything that I hear from the media. I just don't see what incentives teams would have to report who they're interested in, etc. We don't always know what is a smoke screen and what isn't. This is just my opinion, but well see how it works out.
Oh and FWIW, if Appel, Gray, Bryant, Frazier, and Stewart are gone, I'd be very very happy with Dom Smith.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 6, 2013 12:06:48 GMT -5
I have a small favor for everyone. Can we not always fall back to Kolbrin Vitek as our example of a college hitter and compare Moran to him? Dustin Pedroia was a college hitter too. He's doing ok. So were Kevin Youkilis, Jed Lowrie, Jacoby Ellsbury, David Murphy, Jackie Bradley... The Red Sox hit rate on college hitters they'd drafted this century is significantly higher than every other position. Vitek looks like he might have been a miss, but Colin Moran has put up much better numbers against much better competition, and is a consensus top 10. Moran is not Vitek. I keep seeing the reference, and it's making me want to yell at my computer.
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Post by foleyli on Jun 6, 2013 12:11:20 GMT -5
nomah316 et al: there has been no talk of the Red Sox purposely not signing their pick and hoping for a better player next year for the previously given reasons (which I agree with, it would not be smart to do it) but there has been talk of Toronto drafting Bickford at #10 and "tell him to take less money or go to school" (per Law's mock). But basically, while it is likely a bad move, some teams consider it, that being said, the Sox have not been linked to this strategy so I doubt it will happen. Guidas I agree with you and your college friend about Stewart's arm action but the industry seems to believe that it is fixable once he is under the supervision of a professional pitching coach, I would not be too scared off by Stewarts arm action because the industry realizes, that at this point, it is not very clean but still believe he is a top pick. Stewart is either 4th or 5th on my board (behind the big 3 and maybe Meadows, i like meadows)
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Post by foleyli on Jun 6, 2013 12:14:52 GMT -5
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 6, 2013 12:17:14 GMT -5
Plus your sample size of 1 (Vitek) is just a wee bit of cherry picking.
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Post by njsox on Jun 6, 2013 12:21:18 GMT -5
Also got this from my college baseball coach buddy: "I don't like Kohl Stewart – bad arm action and a major injury waiting to happen." Did he say what the "bad arm action" is? Watching video without the benefit of slow motion is tough really see anything major, but for me Stewart's arm action is very short in the back. The first guy with a similar arm motion that comes to mind for me is Michael Bowden. If I am correct in that fact of a short-in-the-back arm motion then he is definitely not worthy of #7. These types of guys don't usually have superstar careers.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 6, 2013 12:23:32 GMT -5
For me the knock against the Vitek pick is not "college hitter" but pre-draft helium. The competition he faced was never very good yet by draft week people were talking about him like he was a two-time All-SEC player.
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Post by njsox on Jun 6, 2013 12:24:24 GMT -5
Unfortunately this is how I see the draft going and 2 guys I really like in Frazier and Shipley will never be available to us.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 6, 2013 12:41:58 GMT -5
@keithlaw Of the 33 players in my latest mock, the only ones I've never seen live at all are Jagielo, Serrano, and Devon Williams.
So there's that.
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Post by lennsakata on Jun 6, 2013 12:48:34 GMT -5
What is the basis of the Bickford/Weaver comparisons? Bickford already throws harder and has little to no secondary offerings presently. Weaver has decent/good velocity but has always had a nice repotoire of off-speed pitches and has always known how to pitch. What really makes me wonder if this is a lazy comparison is going to google images and looking at a picture of Phil Bickford...both proto-typical looking CA kids with the same hair. Or maybe one scout really meant that he literally reminds him of Jered Weaver and that was misinterperted and the comp just took-off? Be kind of funny...or does Bickford replicate Weaver's mechanics somehow in addition to the look?
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Post by mjammz on Jun 6, 2013 13:09:03 GMT -5
Peter Gammons @pgammo Other clubs believe Royals have 1sr round deal with RHP Phil Bickford of Westlake Village, Cal., with 8th pick
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 6, 2013 13:12:48 GMT -5
I agree the Vitek/Moran comparisons are just lazy. He compares much better with Dustin Ackely, Brett Wallace, Zack Cox, Yonder Alonso. Yes I randomly picked names that came to mind.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 6, 2013 13:25:14 GMT -5
Peter Gammons @pgammo Other clubs believe Royals have 1sr round deal with RHP Phil Bickford of Westlake Village, Cal., with 8th pick I'm hearing the same, if they can come to agreement on dollars. (edit: should add that I'm hearing that he's asking for top 5 money)
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Post by Guidas on Jun 6, 2013 13:39:44 GMT -5
Also got this from my college baseball coach buddy: "I don't like Kohl Stewart – bad arm action and a major injury waiting to happen." Did he say what the "bad arm action" is? Watching video without the benefit of slow motion is tough really see anything major, but for me Stewart's arm action is very short in the back. The first guy with a similar arm motion that comes to mind for me is Michael Bowden. If I am correct in that fact of a short-in-the-back arm motion then he is definitely not worthy of #7. These types of guys don't usually have superstar careers. He did not. He gave me more comprehensive stuff last couple years, but this year I didn't get the chance to catch up with him on the draft until yesterday. He usually is pretty good with this stuff, and knows his HS guys exceptionally well. FWIW he thinks Gray may actually end up as a closer rather than a starter. Haven't been able to talk with him about that one yet either.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 6, 2013 13:44:39 GMT -5
FWIW he thinks Gray may actually end up as a closer rather than a starter. Haven't been able to talk with him about that one yet either. If Gray cannot develop an above-average third pitch, it makes a lot of sense. (See Chamberlain, Joba)
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Jun 6, 2013 13:46:24 GMT -5
Darren Wolfson @darrenwolfson Advisor via text just now w/ a stake in the #MNTwins draft: "Stewart is going 4." Me: "What if he goes 1 to hometown?" Advisor: "He's not."
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Post by widewordofsport on Jun 6, 2013 13:50:55 GMT -5
I agree the Vitek/Moran comparisons are just lazy. He compares much better with Dustin Ackely, Brett Wallace, Zack Cox, Yonder Alonso.
I'm with that... based on James' reaction my point wasn't clear. Though I still get nervous with college hitters.
My point was that Vitek was supposed to be a good college hitter, with a good profile, but never had more BBs than Ks. Marrero did. Pedroia had amazing BB/K numbers, so maybe that isn't the comparison.
The scouting report I pasted was more for amusement.
#settledown
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Post by bluechip on Jun 6, 2013 14:25:06 GMT -5
Darren Wolfson @darrenwolfson Advisor via text just now w/ a stake in the #MNTwins draft: "Stewart is going 4." Me: "What if he goes 1 to hometown?" Advisor: "He's not." Boo
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Jun 6, 2013 14:29:08 GMT -5
Darren Wolfson @darrenwolfson Advisor via text just now w/ a stake in the #MNTwins draft: "Stewart is going 4." Me: "What if he goes 1 to hometown?" Advisor: "He's not." Boo They also said that they would jump on Gray or Bryant if they slipped to #4. So there is still a chance, a small one, but better than no chance at all.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 6, 2013 14:32:05 GMT -5
What is the basis of the Bickford/Weaver comparisons? Bickford already throws harder and has little to no secondary offerings presently. Weaver has decent/good velocity but has always had a nice repotoire of off-speed pitches and has always known how to pitch. What really makes me wonder if this is a lazy comparison is going to google images and looking at a picture of Phil Bickford...both proto-typical looking CA kids with the same hair. Or maybe one scout really meant that he literally reminds him of Jered Weaver and that was misinterperted and the comp just took-off? Be kind of funny...or does Bickford replicate Weaver's mechanics somehow in addition to the look? The best comparison I've seen is Jeff Samardzija.
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