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Draft order (Red Sox will pick #7)
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Post by jmei on Sept 9, 2012 21:10:46 GMT -5
FYI: Speier is not penning that series, Christopher Benvie is. Doesn't mean the series won't be useful, but proper attribution is important. Seems awfully early to start a draft watch to me, but you gotta write about something I guess.
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Post by jdb on Sept 9, 2012 21:52:26 GMT -5
1.Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford 2.Austin Meadows, OF, Grayson HS (GA) 3.Clinton Hollon, RHP, Woodford County HS (KY) 4.Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville, GA 5.Ryne Stanek, RHP, Arkansas 6.Kris Bryant, 3B, San Diego 7.Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana State 8.Stephen Gonsalves, LHP, Cathedral Catholic HS (CA) 9.Austin Wilson, OF, Stanford10.Oscar Mercado, SS, Gaither HS (FL) Bobby Wahl, RHP, Ole Miss Jeremy Martinez, C, Mater Dei HS (CA) Is this your list? What's your take on the college bats? Wilson and Bryant. I like Stanek a good bit.
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Post by templeusox on Sept 9, 2012 22:10:36 GMT -5
By the way, Paco Rodriguez appeared for the Dodgers tonight. He was drafted this season and it was plain as day to anyone that watched UF that he was the best pitcher on the staff. The Sox response? Take the two most overrated pitchers on the staff. Symptoms of a widespread problem.
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Post by gatortough on Sept 9, 2012 22:22:39 GMT -5
Punting this year's draft was ill-conceived. I’ll assume this is in reference to my post. I feel it begs explanation. First of all, I’m not suggesting a straight punt. I’m suggesting a lowball offer to our first pick. This has two outcomes, both of which would seem to work to the benefit of the Red Sox. If the offer is accepted, it frees cash to spend on other picks. If it is not, then it secures us a high draft pick in the 2014 draft. While I noted that I am no expert on the strength of a draft class, it seems awfully clear even at this early stage that the 2014 class looks to be much stronger than this year’s crop. The class is headlined by Carlos Rodon, and is accompanied by the left-overs from the 2011 class, which I already mentioned as one of the strongest in recent history. That group includes Tyler Beede, Derek Fisher, and Kevin Cron (as well as our old friend Senquez Golson). Not to mention the inevitable high school talent that arises before next year, it is safe to say that at this point the 2014 draft looks to be a treasure-trove of talent in comparison to what the Red Sox will have to choose from this year. Given the fact that it seems a certainty that the Red Sox will go out and acquire enough talent either through trade or free agency in this off-season, combined with the near major league talent of De la Rosa and Webster, the odds are great that the Red Sox will not enjoy the same draft position in 2014 as they do in 2013. The question therefore comes into clear picture: would you rather have two picks, including one very high pick in the 2014 draft, or one high pick in the far weaker 2013 draft? Unless I am missing something that logic irrefutably points toward choosing the former. The prospecting game is won by those that are able to look at the big picture, not trapped by the pitfalls of immediate gratification. If that is the case then certainly it would be worth the wait of an extra year to acquire far higher upside talent. Ill-conceived? I don’t see that. In fact, it seems to be a rather sound win-win approach to take. If you still find it ill-conceived I would be very receptive to further explanation. I posted that as a hypothetical scenario which I thought was worthwhile of at least entertaining its plausibility. I’m not even saying that I necessarily feel that is the correct course of action. What I am saying is that both sides to the argument have merit, and I would be fascinated to know why you dismiss the scenario so readily. Let me finish by offering an anecdote. In 2010 the Diamondbacks drafted Barret Loux with the 6th overall pick. They did not sign him due to injury concerns and were subsequently awarded the 7th pick in the 2011 draft. With that pick they selected Archie Bradley, who is now a top 25 prospect according to BA and Keith Law. Loux, on the other hand, while working his way back to being a good prospect, is on neither list. I believe the Diamondbacks would do it all over again the same way. Luckily for them, they also were able to pick 3rd in the 2011 draft. I’m not sure the Red Sox can count on that level of play next year.
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Post by templeusox on Sept 9, 2012 22:27:01 GMT -5
Sorry man. Could have saved you a lot of time. It wasn't a reference to your post. I was talking about punting on the 2012 draft.
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Post by gatortough on Sept 9, 2012 23:12:51 GMT -5
Sorry man. Could have saved you a lot of time. It wasn't a reference to your post. I was talking about punting on the 2012 draft. Hah! That would have saved me a lot of time. I wasn't sure if it was directed at me but it seemed like the only post I could tell it corresponded with. Anyways, in defending the legitimacy of my first post I think I went from proposing a total hypothetical to convincing myself that that should be our draft strategy, so there's that...
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 9, 2012 23:25:04 GMT -5
By the way, Paco Rodriguez appeared for the Dodgers tonight. He was drafted this season and it was plain as day to anyone that watched UF that he was the best pitcher on the staff. The Sox response? Take the two most overrated pitchers on the staff. Symptoms of a widespread problem. That problem being what? That they take overrated players? It's not clear from your post at all.
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Post by templeusox on Sept 9, 2012 23:35:50 GMT -5
That they were willing to overlook incredible flaws in deference to pedigree because the new slotting system scared the shit out of them. The Draft gets much tougher when you can't bully the system.
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Post by jioh on Sept 10, 2012 5:41:08 GMT -5
Pick #6? When's the last time we picked higher than 7 (Nixon)? Was it 67 or earlier?
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Post by amfox1 on Sept 10, 2012 8:30:34 GMT -5
Yes, 1967 (Mike Garman, #3), They also had top 5 picks in 1966 (Ken Brett, #4) and 1965 (Billy Conigliaro, #5). These three picks and the Nixon pick are the only top 11 picks for the Red Sox since the first-year player draft began in 1965.
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badfishnbc
Veteran
Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 406
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Post by badfishnbc on Sept 10, 2012 11:09:15 GMT -5
Once again, everyone plays checkers while Speier plays chess - he's always a step ahead of everyone else in the market. Question - were the new draft rules regarding FA compensation changed with regards to Top 10's? I can honestly say I wasn't paying attention since this scenario seemed so improbable...
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Post by bighead on Sept 10, 2012 12:08:55 GMT -5
That they were willing to overlook incredible flaws in deference to pedigree because the new slotting system scared the shit out of them. The Draft gets much tougher when you can't bully the system. I'll take your word on this because I am by no means an expert on the draft pool each year but why do the Sox consistently get good reviews on their drafts then? Serious question since I would guess Law/Baseball America would be pretty objective and they seem to praise the Sox each year?
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Post by jioh on Sept 10, 2012 17:50:21 GMT -5
By the way, Paco Rodriguez appeared for the Dodgers tonight. He was drafted this season and it was plain as day to anyone that watched UF that he was the best pitcher on the staff. The Sox response? Take the two most overrated pitchers on the staff. Symptoms of a widespread problem. I'm surprised no one has refuted this. You think the fact that a LHRP, with what some call a quirky motion, chosen by the Dodgers at #82, makes the majors quickly is proof that we should have taken him in the first round? And you think that what this team needs is a LHRP?
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Post by chavopepe2 on Sept 10, 2012 18:12:49 GMT -5
He didn't say that was proof. In fact he said it was "plain as day to anyone that watched UF". This indicates he felt Rodriguez was better regardless of what he is doing now. We'll find out in the long run, but templeusox has been consistently critical of the Johnson pick.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 10, 2012 21:34:18 GMT -5
First time we're going to get a high pick in eons and not a single pitcher who reasonably projects to be more than a #3 starter to be found. Not seeing any Trout, Stanton, Braun or Manny clones out there at this point, either. Say I've got an idea, how about another light-hitting shortstop. Oh wait...
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Post by charliezink16 on Sept 10, 2012 21:45:26 GMT -5
First time we're going to get a high pick in eons and not a single pitcher who reasonably projects to be more than a #3 starter to be found. Not seeing any Trout, Stanton, Braun or Manny clones out there at this point, either. Say I've got an idea, how about another light-hitting shortstop. Oh wait... Oscar Mercado, get used to the name. I'm already scared.
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 10, 2012 21:50:46 GMT -5
First time we're going to get a high pick in eons and not a single pitcher who reasonably projects to be more than a #3 starter to be found. Not seeing any Trout, Stanton, Braun or Manny clones out there at this point, either. Say I've got an idea, how about another light-hitting shortstop. Oh wait... Trout was drafted 25th....... So you don't really know who will become the next "one"
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 11, 2012 7:02:55 GMT -5
First time we're going to get a high pick in eons and not a single pitcher who reasonably projects to be more than a #3 starter to be found. Not seeing any Trout, Stanton, Braun or Manny clones out there at this point, either. Say I've got an idea, how about another light-hitting shortstop. Oh wait... Trout was drafted 25th....... So you don't really know who will become the next "one" But we do know who the previous "one" was -- Ellsbury. How fortunes can fluctuate. Think about this: If the O's somehow find a way to get past the Yankees and win the division, it is conceivable that the last place team could have a better RS - RA than the first place team. That would be an astounding happenstance, I would think. Of course, the Sox are catching up rapidly.
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Post by templeusox on Sept 11, 2012 7:44:47 GMT -5
That they were willing to overlook incredible flaws in deference to pedigree because the new slotting system scared the shit out of them. The Draft gets much tougher when you can't bully the system. I'll take your word on this because I am by no means an expert on the draft pool each year but why do the Sox consistently get good reviews on their drafts then? Serious question since I would guess Law/Baseball America would be pretty objective and they seem to praise the Sox each year? Because they've been good at drafting up until this year?
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Post by gatortough on Sept 11, 2012 8:11:34 GMT -5
]Because they've been good at drafting up until this year? Law just praised the 2012 draft pretty heavily on his appearance on down on the farm FWIW. Did you have other problems with the draft besides the UF picks?
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Post by bighead on Sept 11, 2012 11:06:22 GMT -5
]Because they've been good at drafting up until this year? Law just praised the 2012 draft pretty heavily on his appearance on down on the farm FWIW. Did you have other problems with the draft besides the UF picks? I can't find a link but I swear I read Callis and Manuel, who usually seems to criticize the Sox, both signed off on it as a good haul.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 11, 2012 11:55:05 GMT -5
If the Sox get the top 7 pick, with a high slot value, do they draft the #15 player to a below slot deal and then spread out the rest? Or do they take one of the top 7 guys who will include sliders like Appell who want an above slot?
Edit: last year's #7 slot was $3 million NO. TEAM % VALUE 1 Astros 100% $7,200,000 2 Twins 86% $6,200,000 3 Mariners 72% $5,200,000 4 Orioles 58% $4,200,000 5 Royals 49% $3,500,000 6 Cubs 45% $3,250,000 7 Padres 42% $3,000,000 8 Pirates 40% $2,900,000 9 Marlins 39% $2,800,000 10 Rockies 38% $2,700,000
Appell will be the most interesting, because his $ numbers only fall in the top 3 or 4. After that, its a matter of betting whether he'll budge as a senior.
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Post by amfox1 on Sept 11, 2012 12:38:46 GMT -5
If the Sox get the top 7 pick, with a high slot value, do they draft the #15 player to a below slot deal and then spread out the rest? Or do they take one of the top 7 guys who will include sliders like Appell who want an above slot? Way too early to answer, but I believe it is much more likely for the Red Sox to draft the highest upside player likely to sign for slot or just above slot than to either draft an above-slot guy or a below-slot guy. Because there will be much less comp. picks, the teams need to optimize their top picks without sacrificing the rest of the draft. Assume the Red Sox get the #7 pick and no supp pick for Ortiz (because they re-sign him). Given the new system (and assuming no comp picks other than the competitive comp picks), the Red Sox would end up with #7, then #44 (remember, there are six Round A competitive comp picks, plus the pick for Appel) and then #81 (remember, there are six Round B competitive comp picks, plus the pick for Stankiewicz (#76)).
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Post by remember04 on Sept 12, 2012 3:05:26 GMT -5
If the Sox get the top 7 pick, with a high slot value, do they draft the #15 player to a below slot deal and then spread out the rest? Or do they take one of the top 7 guys who will include sliders like Appell who want an above slot? Edit: last year's #7 slot was $3 million NO. TEAM % VALUE 1 Astros 100% $7,200,000 2 Twins 86% $6,200,000 3 Mariners 72% $5,200,000 4 Orioles 58% $4,200,000 5 Royals 49% $3,500,000 6 Cubs 45% $3,250,000 7 Padres 42% $3,000,000 8 Pirates 40% $2,900,000 9 Marlins 39% $2,800,000 10 Rockies 38% $2,700,000 Appell will be the most interesting, because his $ numbers only fall in the top 3 or 4. After that, its a matter of betting whether he'll budge as a senior. If Appel does somehow drop to us I think they should make the pick and just offer him whatever they think he's worth and not a penny more. He doesn't exactly have much leverage this year and if he doesn't sign the comp pick for next year will be at least as good but probably better. I don't think the sox have the grapes to do that but its what I wish they'd do.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 14, 2012 8:37:41 GMT -5
We're almost a mortal lock to get that top 10 pick. That is protected. The 11th and 12th teams are already up to 69 wins. We have 64. Would have to finish 6-12 to finish at 70. I don't even see that. I guess one of the questions is. Now that we have a protected pick. Is there a free agent out there worth signing?
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