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Post by burythehammer on Oct 23, 2012 22:39:57 GMT -5
You see the videos, do you think he has non-existent command? I know it's only one or two looks, and I'm no scout, but that seems like a stretch. And btw, if Stetson Allie had been a free agent, he probably would have gotten as much if not more than Otani ends up getting, the new penalties notwithstanding.
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Post by nexus on Oct 24, 2012 8:51:52 GMT -5
Are you asking if I am forming an opinion based on 3 FBs? No.
I am happy to hear of Cherington's involvement, but the few first hand reports we have lead me to believe he's a cultivation project. Nothing wrong with that, but I can see this snowballing out of control until the board is ready to proclaim him as the mystical foreign savior who also happens to be Katsumoto's great great grandson.
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Post by dewey1972 on Oct 24, 2012 20:42:07 GMT -5
Nexus - yes, if people start thinking he's a savior, then they're overdoing it. But this is a player who, it seems from Callis's piece, would go in the top ten, if not top five, of the draft. This year notwithstanding, we don't get a chance to get those guys. So I don't see how it wouldn't be exciting to get a guy like that.
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Post by jmei on Oct 25, 2012 10:19:37 GMT -5
Otani was drafted in the first round of the NPB draft today by the Nippon Ham Fighters, but issued a statement indicating his continued desire to play for an MLB team.
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badfishnbc
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Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
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Post by badfishnbc on Oct 25, 2012 10:29:55 GMT -5
Nothing wrong with that, but I can see this snowballing out of control until the board is ready to proclaim him as the mystical foreign savior who also happens to be Katsumoto's great great grandson. My research tells me that Katsumoto was a fantastic baseball player. This may not be not common knowledge, but it was actually his pitch repertoire that was known as the Seven Spears of Shizugatake.
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 25, 2012 15:02:35 GMT -5
Ben Badler @benbadler The Japanese draft doesn't stop anything. Shohei Otani can still sign with an MLB team any time bit.ly/PSWqWw
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Post by fisterroboto on Oct 25, 2012 16:20:34 GMT -5
KLAW mentioned in his chat today, the NPB team might have drafted him just so they can post him. Ham Fighters get some money out of it, NPB kind of saves face, the MLB team doesn't piss off Selig, and gentleman's agreement re: Japanese amateurs isn't technically violated.
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 25, 2012 16:21:30 GMT -5
KLAW mentioned in his chat today, the NPB team might have drafted him just so they can post him. Ham Fighters get some money out of it, NPB kind of saves face, the MLB team doesn't piss off Selig, and gentleman's agreement re: Japanese amateurs isn't technically violated. unless he signs with the NPB team, he cant be posted...
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Post by fisterroboto on Oct 25, 2012 19:53:42 GMT -5
I think he was implying one of two options:
1) He signs with the Ham Fighters on the condition that he is immediately posted, and possibly avoids a ban from returning to NPB should it not work out in the US. If this happens, Otani isn't guaranteed to go to the team he prefers but also has some of the risk removed.
or
2) NPB tells Selig that if Otani signs with a team, all sorts of restrictions on scouts and access will be implemented against all teams, Selig in turn tells teams not to sign the guy or just doesn't approve the deal.
I don't know how likely either option is but it seems to make the most sense to me anyway.
Also, if he signs and is posted right away, does the bonus limit on IFA apply to him?
Edit: Apparently he is subject to bonus pool even if he signs and is posted per Ben Badler
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 25, 2012 20:11:39 GMT -5
Option 2 would be unlikely, since that's basically collusion.
Since Japan has a structured high school system that is similar to North America's (at least in a general sense, I'm not looking to get into an ed. policy discussion here), I could see a time in the not too distant future (i.e. the next CBA) where players like Otani would be subject to the amateur draft. It's a little bit silly that they aren't.
Also, your username is awesome.
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Post by elguapo on Oct 25, 2012 21:50:23 GMT -5
Abolish the draft.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 26, 2012 8:17:50 GMT -5
While it's fine here, last time there was no draft? The Brooklyn, later on early LAD and NYY had more talent in their farm systems than half of the other teams playing MLB..
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badfishnbc
Veteran
Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 390
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Post by badfishnbc on Oct 26, 2012 10:45:45 GMT -5
While it's fine here, last time there was no draft? The Brooklyn, later on early LAD and NYY had more talent in their farm systems than half of the other teams playing MLB.. And 70 percent of the league scouted only regionally and with particular insight like, "Well, he just looks like a ballplayer should."
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Post by jdb on Oct 28, 2012 14:29:32 GMT -5
This was in the link in the 1B thread www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2012/2614229.htmlThree teams—the Dodgers, Rangers and Red Sox—have met with Otani in Japan, and he said yesterday that he plans on signing with one of them. We don't have access to how much money clubs have remaining in their international bonus pools, but Texas appears to have the most among those three teams. (The Rangers' $4.5 million signing of Beras doesn't count against the pool because it happened in February.) Boston, which spent a combined $1.36 million on Dominican righthander Jose Almonte, Dominican shortstop Wendell Rijo and Venezuelan lefty Dedgar Jimenez, has the least money among the three clubs.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 28, 2012 17:43:28 GMT -5
So the Red Sox spend up to 1.6 m limit as a bonus to Otani. But other teams have more money to spend on International bonuses. Can't the Sox just offer a higher annual contract to him to beat the other interested teams? This way they're in compliance with league Int'l bonus limits and offer enough Yen to satisfy the player.
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Post by jmei on Oct 28, 2012 18:46:35 GMT -5
Please read the whole thread. The BA article was linked earlier and there was discussion about why the $1.6m left in the Red Sox international free agent pool was not a hard limit ( see here). The penalties for exceeding that limit aren't harsh and there is every reason to believe that Otani will want a bonus in excess of the $2.9m "cap." I also think offering a major league contract (which you'd have to do to give him a larger base contract) to an 18-year-old Japanese amateur is a bad idea because it means you have to add him to your 40-man roster immediately and you'll start burning options. Would Otani be ready for full-time MLB play in three years or less? I'd rather just spend the extra bonus and incur the tax and inability to sign a $250K+ international FA in 2013. But I probable value roster flexibility more and am less confident in high-priced int'l FAs than most folks.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 28, 2012 18:57:23 GMT -5
Didn't we do that with Tazawa? He burned a year with his injury.
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Post by jmei on Oct 28, 2012 20:26:20 GMT -5
Tazawa was 22 when he was signed and was initially assigned to Portland. He was much more polished (four average to better pitches, solid command) and reached the major leagues in August of his first professional season.
Otani, on the other hand, is 18 years old and just graduated high school. He has solid raw stuff but below-average command and limited secondary stuff. At best, he's comparable to a high school draftee, but might be even further behind considering he has to adjust to the slightly different MLB ball and American culture.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 29, 2012 8:09:43 GMT -5
If reports on Otani are true, it may be worth burning three option years to get him on a ML roster at age 21.
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Post by remember04 on Oct 29, 2012 10:58:24 GMT -5
If reports on Otani are true, it may be worth burning three option years to get him on a ML roster at age 21. No its not. Besides the penalties for going over other than an extra percentage being charged for every dollar over are that you can't sign anybody next year for more than 250,000. We can still pay him whatever he wants in theory this way and next year we target specifically every player we think would/could sign for 250,000 and move on. People can and have argued that with IFAs being such a crap shoot avoiding high priced ones and collecting a bunch of lower teir ones may be the better approach anyways. As far as posterchild for not giving a young kid a MLB contract I give you swing and miss Wily Mo Pena. Just pay him what he wants as long as its within reason, pay the penalties and take what might be the better approach next year anyway and let him develop at his own pace.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 29, 2012 14:42:27 GMT -5
I may be mistaken, but I thought the Sox gave Iglesias a ML contract. If so, at least in one case it worked out as he's knocking on the door. There are probably others.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 29, 2012 14:58:59 GMT -5
Iglesias, like Tazawa, debuted in Double-A, and because of his defense could've played in the majors in an emergency without hurting the team too badly. Otani, as an 18-year-old with the equivalent stuff of a high to mid first rounder with the extra issue of having to make a cultural adjustment, would likely begin in Greenville if the Red Sox were to sign him.
Putting Otani on the 40-man would be the equivalent of drafting a HS pitcher with the #7 pick and putting him on the 40-man.
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Post by tjb21 on Oct 29, 2012 15:01:12 GMT -5
I may be mistaken, but I thought the Sox gave Iglesias a ML contract. If so, at least in one case it worked out as he's knocking on the door. There are probably others. This has been mentioned before, but the reason the Iglesias situation shouldn’t be compared to this is: Iglesias was a much more refined prospect than Otani is at the time of their signing.
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Post by nexus on Oct 29, 2012 15:09:29 GMT -5
I may be mistaken, but I thought the Sox gave Iglesias a ML contract. If so, at least in one case it worked out as he's knocking on the door. There are probably others. Except Iglesias has been knocking since the day he signed. His floor was utility infielder on a MLB club (and still is). Minimal risk. Edit: I'm too slow... what the others said.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 29, 2012 15:15:15 GMT -5
I agree that putting Otani on the 40 man is not the ideal situation. I would prefer to have him start his professional career at an entry level.
I was only looking at it from a competitive point of view considering reports have the Rangers and Dodgers very interested in him. If they have more bonus money to offer an international signee, the Red Sox may have to be creative to overcome other teams' advantages.
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