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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 19, 2014 12:37:53 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel at Fangraphs has given tool grades to all 2014 first rounders. He gives Chavis future tools of 50 hit, 55 game power, 60 raw power, 50 speed, 50+ field, 60 throw, and a 50 Future Value. It's hard not be happy with that given where we were picking. Interesting, given that Nick Faleris of BP thought he had the best hit tool in the class.
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Post by moonstone2 on Sept 19, 2014 15:29:15 GMT -5
Between the "amazing athlete, huge raw power, maybe we can teach him how to hit" class of prospect and the "less than ideal physical profile, but has a natural ability to spray line drives all over the place" types, I have a strong bias towards the latter. Obviously it's very early with Chavis, but when I look at his SP profile and see him listed at 5-10 and "may have best hit tool in the draft"... oh hell yeah. That's my guy. I think you need both types of players in your system. There are guys in that second class, like Matt Kemp, that have gone on to become valuable major leaguers. Pick too many of the first type, you'll end up with a lot of utility infielders, pick too many of the later you'll end up with a lot of busts. That said I think it's instructive to try to tear down even the prospects we like so we can get a better understanding of their weaknesses. His main weakness is that he's not that projectable so he's probably not going to be a SS and probably not going to hit for a ton of power. Hence the further down the defensive spectrum he goes, the more he's going to have to rely on his hit tool and that's the hardest tool to develop into a skill and hence to project going forward. I think the Red Sox in this draft did a good job of diversifying between the two types of players you are talking about. Koppech is more of the raw talent type who overall has more major league upside than Chavis but isn't as safe a bet to make the majors.
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Post by moonstone2 on Sept 19, 2014 15:35:58 GMT -5
Just realized that he and Devers are basically going to be on the same developmental time table at the same position..... Awkwaaaarrd. Initially at least I would imagine that Chavis will be the SS in Greenville to start 2015. Javier Guerrera is very promising but I think that putting him in full season ball would be too much for where his skill level is at the moment.
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Post by azblue on Sept 19, 2014 17:05:31 GMT -5
Chavis's slow start likely impacted the rating.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Oct 28, 2014 13:12:31 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 28, 2014 13:27:21 GMT -5
Not surprising. He basically made the move midway through the GCL, although he still played a little bit of shortstop to make the at-bats work with Guerra and Devers. The interesting thing is still how they figure out the playing time issue with he and Devers next year. Lowell and Greenville are in play for both. Easiest way to do it would be one in each spot, but if both are ready for the same level (whichever that is), you don't really want to move one around to accommodate the other.
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Post by ramireja on Oct 28, 2014 13:55:32 GMT -5
Not surprising. He basically made the move midway through the GCL, although he still played a little bit of shortstop to make the at-bats work with Guerra and Devers. The interesting thing is still how they figure out the playing time issue with he and Devers next year. Lowell and Greenville are in play for both. Easiest way to do it would be one in each spot, but if both are ready for the same level (whichever that is), you don't really want to move one around to accommodate the other. Yeah, this is an interesting dilemma. Bast on past players of similar status, I would imagine both Chavis and Devers could handle a ticket to Greenville. If they do decide to send both to the same team, I would imagine they might consider Chavis at 2nd base, but the fact that he exclusively saw time at 3B during instructs doesn't really line up with that plan.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 28, 2014 14:33:55 GMT -5
Not surprising. He basically made the move midway through the GCL, although he still played a little bit of shortstop to make the at-bats work with Guerra and Devers. The interesting thing is still how they figure out the playing time issue with he and Devers next year. Lowell and Greenville are in play for both. Easiest way to do it would be one in each spot, but if both are ready for the same level (whichever that is), you don't really want to move one around to accommodate the other. Yeah, this is an interesting dilemma. Bast on past players of similar status, I would imagine both Chavis and Devers could handle a ticket to Greenville. If they do decide to send both to the same team, I would imagine they might consider Chavis at 2nd base, but the fact that he exclusively saw time at 3B during instructs doesn't really line up with that plan. Had the same thought and dismissed it for the same reason.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 9, 2015 16:41:41 GMT -5
Does Chavis repeat Greenville?
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 9, 2015 17:07:48 GMT -5
Does Chavis repeat Greenville? I would say he should. A .277 OBP isn't very worthy of promotion.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 9, 2015 17:09:17 GMT -5
Does Chavis repeat Greenville? Absolutely. I think they'd like to see him post a K rate in the 22-24% range, with a BA much closer to .300 and an OPS in .850 territory. He's still a bit young for the level. I think they're going to want to see him keep the power but dramatically improve the contact and pitch recognition/selectivity.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 9, 2015 17:17:57 GMT -5
Does Chavis repeat Greenville? Absolutely. I think they'd like to see him post a K rate in the 22-24% range, with a BA much closer to .300 and an OPS in .850 territory. He's still a bit young for the level. I think they're going to want to see him keep the power but dramatically improve the contact and pitch recognition/selectivity. And it would be good to get both he and Devers more games in the field.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 9, 2015 18:03:44 GMT -5
Absolutely. I think they'd like to see him post a K rate in the 22-24% range, with a BA much closer to .300 and an OPS in .850 territory. He's still a bit young for the level. I think they're going to want to see him keep the power but dramatically improve the contact and pitch recognition/selectivity. And it would be good to get both he and Devers more games in the field. THAT is the most important thing. I want Chavis to show up everyday with his named posted. He needs to play everyday and get his 4 at bats. This will be a big year for him. He could stay on the same path and become quickly dismissed, or he could come up with a 2-strike plan that allows him to be more productive. I was deeply disappointed in his performance this year in low A. He needs to become a hitter and not a slugger. Yes he may hit 20+ homers in the majors some day, but he will never get there with his present approach. Few teams find 20+ homers and 150+ K's acceptable. Yes he should be in Greenville next year!
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 9, 2015 19:12:59 GMT -5
Steve, if you saw him play what was your impression of his defensive skills? Sounds as if those were raw also, but improving.
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Post by beany24 on Nov 9, 2015 21:25:19 GMT -5
I've seen him play several times down here in FLA., both GCL and instructs. His body type, lack of height(maybe 5-10), and lack of range pretty much limit him to 3b. I can't see him playing 2b. He's solid on balls hit at him and has an average arm but if he doesn't make better contact and really hit, I doubt he'll get past AA.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 9, 2015 22:23:58 GMT -5
Chavis had a .453 slugging percentage from 7/1 onward, which is really impressive for a 19-year-old in the SAL. Drafting the next Pedro Feliz isn't the most exciting outcome but it's generally a positive one. Matching Feliz's modest 5.6 career bWAR would make Chavis the fourth-best #26 pick of all time.
Whether he should be in Salem or Greenville really depends more on how the organization thinks he will respond to wherever he's placed. If he's someone they want to get some sustained success then it probably makes sense to keep him in Greenville. If they think he's someone whose development will thrive by being challenged, Salem may make more sense.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 10, 2015 7:20:53 GMT -5
Steve, if you saw him play what was your impression of his defensive skills? Sounds as if those were raw also, but improving. Sorry about getting back so slowly Norm. That part of his game was thought to be behind his hitting, and it is really no better than average (if that). He showed decent hands and a pretty solid arm when I saw him. I think he is somewhat limited in what he will become defensively....no matter where he is placed. His bat is what will get him to the majors (or not). Seems to me he has got "power" happy, and that alone with his other skills being no more than average will kill his chances. IMO he has to greatly improve his ability of putting the ball in play. He really has some good bat speed and when he does connect it is usually hard contact, but his strike-outs are of great concern in low-A. He plays the game hard and his teammates seem to gravitate towards him. Lets hope that darn light bulb comes on this year!
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Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 10, 2015 9:24:04 GMT -5
Absolutely. I think they'd like to see him post a K rate in the 22-24% range, with a BA much closer to .300 and an OPS in .850 territory. He's still a bit young for the level. I think they're going to want to see him keep the power but dramatically improve the contact and pitch recognition/selectivity. And it would be good to get both he and Devers more games in the field. Agree on that. Seems as even in Salem they will have to already be using a DH rotation with Moncada, Devers, Guerra, Longhi (probably), Dubon all on the the roster. Dubon may be moved up though. Catchers Rei & Ben Moore will prob be there as well. Will be beneficial to him to be simply the everyday 3B @ Greenville.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 10, 2015 9:31:12 GMT -5
And it would be good to get both he and Devers more games in the field. Agree on that. Seems as even in Salem they will have to already be using a DH rotation with Moncada, Devers, Guerra, Longhi (probably), Dubon all on the the roster. Dubon may be moved up though. Catchers Rei & Ben Moore will prob be there as well. Will be beneficial to him to be simply the everyday 3B @ Greenville. Well Longhi, as a 1B/RF, doesn't really factor in. Consider that Moncada-Devers-Guerra-Dubon was what they already had for a month or so in Greenville, and that was with Chavis there too. Seems pretty clear they can start 2B Moncada/SS Guerra/3B Devers, with Dubon moving between the three positions, if need be, and it wouldn't be horrible. The complicating issue to me is whether Wendell Rijo is ready for Portland (Dubon is definitely NOT ready for Portland). If he isn't, they almost have to trade one of those guys just to free up the at-bats. Also, given how awful he was in Lowell, I'd be stunned if Rei was in Salem to start the year. FYI, there are projected rosters here: www.soxprospects.com/2016.htm
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Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 10, 2015 10:02:45 GMT -5
Agree on that. Seems as even in Salem they will have to already be using a DH rotation with Moncada, Devers, Guerra, Longhi (probably), Dubon all on the the roster. Dubon may be moved up though. Catchers Rei & Ben Moore will prob be there as well. Will be beneficial to him to be simply the everyday 3B @ Greenville. Well Longhi, as a 1B/RF, doesn't really factor in. Consider that Moncada-Devers-Guerra-Dubon was what they already had for a month or so in Greenville, and that was with Chavis there too. Seems pretty clear they can start 2B Moncada/SS Guerra/3B Devers, with Dubon moving between the three positions, if need be, and it wouldn't be horrible. The complicating issue to me is whether Wendell Rijo is ready for Portland (Dubon is definitely NOT ready for Portland). If he isn't, they almost have to trade one of those guys just to free up the at-bats. Also, given how awful he was in Lowell, I'd be stunned if Rei was in Salem to start the year. FYI, there are projected rosters here: www.soxprospects.com/2016.htmThanks for the link...Looking at Rei though, he is a 22 yr old somewhat polished college catcher (albeit defensively), just seemed a bit old for Greenville. He did come on late in the year after a torn thumb ligament was healed.
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Post by iakovos11 on Nov 10, 2015 10:16:03 GMT -5
Rei is not starting in Salem!
Decisions aren't made by age. They're made based on readiness to compete. Performance. Maybe a small amount determined by need, that's one reason why ml systems need org guys. There are plenty of guys that are old for the leagues they play in.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 10, 2015 10:24:58 GMT -5
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 10, 2015 10:24:50 GMT -5
I really hope Chavis shortens his swing. His hit tool used to be his bread and butter coming out of HS. Seems like he's become too much of a hacker. I think Chavis' power is easier than he suspects. Cutting down on K's and focusing on driving the ball into gaps instead of over the fence would do him a lot of good.
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Post by Smittyw on Nov 10, 2015 11:21:03 GMT -5
Was he as painful to watch as that scouting report was to read?
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 10, 2015 11:23:53 GMT -5
I really hope Chavis shortens his swing. His hit tool used to be his bread and butter coming out of HS. Seems like he's become too much of a hacker. I think Chavis' power is easier than he suspects. Cutting down on K's and focusing on driving the ball into gaps instead of over the fence would do him a lot of good. BIG TIME AGREE!
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