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Brandon Workman: reliever or starter?
alnipper
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Living the dream
Posts: 618
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Post by alnipper on Aug 13, 2014 9:40:04 GMT -5
The question to ask, is will we start or relieve in 2015? So far this year from what I've seen is that he's a better starter than a reliever. I think the front office is probably grooming him as a reliever or limiting his innings this year. Coming out of spring training, and early in the year the Red Sox were preparing him as a starter, which could be why I think he is better as a starter.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,881
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 13, 2014 10:04:10 GMT -5
The question to ask, is will we start or relieve in 2015? So far this year from what I've seen is that he's a better starter than a reliever.I think the front office is probably grooming him as a reliever or limiting his innings this year. Coming out of spring training, and early in the year the Red Sox were preparing him as a starter, which could be why I think he is better as a starter. Baseball has this thing called statistics. It's really pretty useful. They actually count the number of times that various things happen on the field; in fact, they keep track of almost everything. You can use these statistics to answer questions like the one that you sort of admit you're guessing about. In fact, that's what people usually do. For instance, as a starter, Workman has struck out 1.7 hitters for every hitter he has walked. As a reliever, it is 7.0 times as many.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 13, 2014 10:04:41 GMT -5
Workman hasn't had a very good season. Between Triple-A and the majors, he's given up 18 home runs in 117.1 innings. That's way, way too many. As a starter this season, he has a K/BB of only 1.71, a 4.63 ERA, and he's allowed a home run once every 30 batters.
I think it's the right decision to move him to the bullpen for 2014. It might be beneficial for Workman's career to have him work more innings as a starter. But from the Red Sox standpoint, they pretty much know what they have with him, right? Does it make sense to continue to evaluate Workman at the expense of evaluating Webster and Ranaudo first-hand? My opinion is, no.
As far as 2015 goes, there are a lot of variables. But, as of right now, I don't think Workman is a starter for the Red Sox, and I will work through why I think that. 1. Buchholz, Kelly and De La Rosa have cemented, barring injury or trade, a spot in the 2015 rotation. 2. The Red Sox will almost certainly add a pitcher. There's a good chance it comes via trade, and if that happens then it's almost certain at least one of the near-ready starters will be going in the other direction. 3. Here's the tricky part. At the point following a trade for starter #1, the Red Sox have only one rotation spot open. If Webster and Ranaudo don't impress the Red Sox more than Workman has, it's hard for me to see the Red Sox not adding another second-tier type starter. So basically, I can see Webster or Ranaudo pitching well enough in the next seven weeks to convince the Red Sox not to add another starter. I could also see both of them pitching poorly and remaining behind Workman on the depth chart - but in doing so, showing the Red Sox that they don't have enough arms heading into '15 and pushing them to aggressively pursue a second arm.
WILD CARD: There is a chance that De La Rosa is dealt for a true frontline starter (Cueto or Hamels, for example). In that case, it would open up yet another rotation spot, and one that I could see being filled internally, because the cost of adding three pitchers in one offseason is probably prohibitive. In THAT case, then I could see Workman getting that #5 role. But we're basically threading the needle here - an unlikely but not impossible combination of events where De La Rosa is dealt and Webster and Ranaudo both are still behind Workman.
Additionally, isn't Workman's bullpen work in the 2013 playoffs the reason we're all so high on him? I'm always wary of relievers who give up too many homers, but his upside is probably an ace reliever there. So sending him to the 'pen isn't the worst thing, I don't think.
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Post by godot on Aug 13, 2014 10:04:58 GMT -5
Until he regains the control and command he showed earlier he is neither.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Aug 13, 2014 10:32:59 GMT -5
I think Workman's pitch repertoire plays better in the bullpen. He has a fastball that cannot be consistently relied upon to get through an order 3 times, but can be very successful in his first or second time through a lineup. I like his curveball and see some progress with his other secondary stuff (the cutter, specifically) but still don't see the quality of depth in his secondary pitches to put him in the rotation ahead of other guys in the system. For some smaller market clubs, I think he has the ability to pitch out of the rotation. For the 2015 and future Boston Red Sox, I think Workman's most useful role is in the pen, where his stuff seems to play up in shorter outings and he has less of a need to rely on his secondary arsenal.
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Post by jmei on Aug 13, 2014 10:41:54 GMT -5
The question to ask, is will we start or relieve in 2015? So far this year from what I've seen is that he's a better starter than a reliever.I think the front office is probably grooming him as a reliever or limiting his innings this year. Coming out of spring training, and early in the year the Red Sox were preparing him as a starter, which could be why I think he is better as a starter. Baseball has this thing called statistics. It's really pretty useful. They actually count the number of times that various things happen on the field; in fact, they keep track of almost everything. You can use these statistics to answer questions like the one that you sort of admit you're guessing about. In fact, that's what people usually do. For instance, as a starter, Workman has struck out 1.7 hitters for every hitter he has walked. As a reliever, it is 7.0 times as many. You could really stand to tone down the condescension here, especially since you're the one citing his starter/reliever splits from 2014 only, a season in which he has all of 6.1 IP as a reliever. As recently as last year, he had indeed pitched much better as a starter than as a reliever (2.45 ERA, 2.45 FIP, and 4.50 K/BB as a starter; 6.94 ERA, 4.21 FIP and 2.64 K/BB as a reliever). The numbers you're citing above are just his 2014 splits; if you look at his career numbers, they're still somewhat ambiguous (4.10 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 2.11 K/BB as a starter; a 6.07 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 3.00 K/BB as a reliever (though with drastic xFIP splits-- 4.31 as a starter, 2.94 as a reliever)). Like most pitchers, he'd probably be better as a reliever. It's still a question of whether you want to foreclose the possibility of him being a decent enough back-of-the-rotation type by moving him permanently to the bullpen at this juncture of his career.
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Post by Jonathan Singer on Aug 13, 2014 10:44:58 GMT -5
I always liked him as reliever and he should have started the year in the Boston bullpen had the Red Sox not thrown away money on Chris Capuano. Workman pitched big innings in the World Series last season. To me he could have done the same job Capuano did at a fraction of the price.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 13, 2014 11:00:59 GMT -5
I always liked him as reliever and he should have started the year in the Boston bullpen had the Red Sox not thrown away money on Chris Capuano. Workman pitched big innings in the World Series last season. To me he could have done the same job Capuano did at a fraction of the price. Same here.
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 13, 2014 11:02:37 GMT -5
I'm going to vote reliever. Assuming there are no blockbuster trades, I think three spots of the rotation are locked down to start 2015, Buchholz, Kelly, and DLR. I also think they bring in at least 1 starter externally to fill at least a spot. That leaves Workman fighting for the 5th spot with Ranaudo and Webster, with wildcards also competing, like Wright, Barnes, Sanchez, Owens. I am not sure Workman brings anything to the table that we can't get from one of these guys. Also at this point the only two starting relievers we have under contract are Tazawa and Mujica (Layne is making a case for a Breslow replacement) so I think it is easy to slide Workman back into the bullpen.
BTW, I'm guessing conservatively with my predictions. A rotation of Buchholz, Kelly, DLR, Acquistion, Ranaudo, is pretty risky, but I'm just working with the knowledge I have now, and am not drastically changing the roster in my prediction.
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Post by jmei on Aug 13, 2014 11:04:31 GMT -5
Capuano only cost the Red Sox $1.75m and allowed Workman (as opposed to Webster or De La Rosa, both of which were less sure things) to be the 6th starter at the start of the year. I still think that's a totally defensible decision.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 13, 2014 11:15:45 GMT -5
Capuano only cost the Red Sox $1.75m and allowed Workman (as opposed to Webster or De La Rosa, both of which were less sure things) to be the 6th starter at the start of the year. I still think that's a totally defensible decision. Except with how it turned out...
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Post by jmei on Aug 13, 2014 11:21:03 GMT -5
Capuano only cost the Red Sox $1.75m and allowed Workman (as opposed to Webster or De La Rosa, both of which were less sure things) to be the 6th starter at the start of the year. I still think that's a totally defensible decision. Except with how it turned out... I'm not sure what you're implying here. Capuano gave them great production for a month and then two months of awfulness. Subbing him out for Workman would have had next-to-no effect on the team's performance or Workman's development.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 13, 2014 11:25:43 GMT -5
Except with how it turned out... I'm not sure what you're implying here. Capuano gave them great production for a month and then two months of awfulness. Subbing him out for Workman would have had next-to-no effect on the team's performance or Workman's development. Pretty much no single decision would have changed the season. But that's not really an argument. Maybe a few more RDLR starts and a few less Workman starts plus the likely overall upgrade of Workman over Capuano could have been an extra win. Plus we would have had a relief pitcher with options allowing for more flexibility.
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 13, 2014 11:38:29 GMT -5
Workman is a starter. For another team.
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Post by jmei on Aug 13, 2014 11:42:19 GMT -5
I'm not sure what you're implying here. Capuano gave them great production for a month and then two months of awfulness. Subbing him out for Workman would have had next-to-no effect on the team's performance or Workman's development. Pretty much no single decision would have changed the season. But that's not really an argument. Maybe a few more RDLR starts and a few less Workman starts plus the likely overall upgrade of Workman over Capuano could have been an extra win. Plus we would have had a relief pitcher with options allowing for more flexibility. I never said anything about turning the season around. But even with the power of hindsight, it's a really minor, negligible difference.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 13, 2014 11:46:49 GMT -5
Even if the signing of Capuano was questionable, Workman was better off getting those innings as a sterter in the minors. If he'd been in the bullpen for the first three months of the season, we wouldn't even be having a conversation about his future as a starter. Capuano really has no place in this discussion.
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 13, 2014 12:32:57 GMT -5
If he moves to the pen for the remainder of the year, maybe he'll be spending more time with Koji and he can learn Koji's splitter - a la Schilling-Papelbon (not so simple, I understand). If he could add a devastating splitter, we might have our set up guy next and future closer.
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 13, 2014 12:53:20 GMT -5
I don't know Workman's splits well, and frankly there are too many variables and not enough samples to really get a call on it. I do know his 1st/2nd/3rd time through the lineup stats aren't significantly worse than DLR.
The problem is that I saw him as a RP pitching in some important game in a World Series. So I feel like I know he can be a good reliever. I don't know that he can be a good starter. Too much other depth to let him figure that out at the MLB level.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 13, 2014 13:05:48 GMT -5
Workman's secondary stuff isn't strong enough for his fastball to only be hitting 89-90 with so-so command. In the bullpen, he ticks up to 93-94 so I think he'd be more effective.
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Post by okin15 on Aug 13, 2014 14:45:27 GMT -5
IMO Workman is a swingman who will end up in the bullpen when he runs out of options and/or upside (ie. when he's no longer young). In 2015, I expect the Sox will start him in spring training no matter what, because at worst, he's the 7th starter, and then if everyone is healthy, he'll be in the bullpen, because he's probably too good to play another season in Pawtucket.
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Post by jclmontana on Aug 13, 2014 15:10:37 GMT -5
With Farrell citing fatigue as a reason to skip Workman today, it may be that Workman is simply tired this year, especially in the last few starts that have been so awful. Of course, Farrell might just be covering to preserve Workman's ego or trade value, but taking that statement at face value, it is hard to use 2014 results as a predictor moving forward.
Where Workman ends up may be just a pragmatic decision, based on team needs and not entirely reflective of Workman's skills. I don't think he is going to be good enough (compared to other Sox pitchers) to force his way into the rotation, and while he does have value, Workman does seem pretty fungible, at least given the current status of the SP depth. If any of the AAA SP show up strong next spring, I could see Workman getting tracked into a reliever role, even if Workman is doing pretty well as a SP.
I would love to see him develop into a go-to high-leverage reliever, he certainly seems to have the personality for it (based on past articles citing his fearless strike throwing, bull-dog demeanor, blah, blah). The Sox have other options for SP but it seems as if the RP depth can always be better, no matter what. So put him where the team needs him and hopefully he blossoms.
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Post by ray88h66 on Aug 13, 2014 16:19:12 GMT -5
The question to ask, is will we start or relieve in 2015? So far this year from what I've seen is that he's a better starter than a reliever.I think the front office is probably grooming him as a reliever or limiting his innings this year. Coming out of spring training, and early in the year the Red Sox were preparing him as a starter, which could be why I think he is better as a starter. Baseball has this thing called statistics. It's really pretty useful. They actually count the number of times that various things happen on the field; in fact, they keep track of almost everything. You can use these statistics to answer questions like the one that you sort of admit you're guessing about. In fact, that's what people usually do. For instance, as a starter, Workman has struck out 1.7 hitters for every hitter he has walked. As a reliever, it is 7.0 times as many. This is being right and wrong at the same time.
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Post by redsox1534 on Aug 13, 2014 16:48:48 GMT -5
Hes a starter for my money. He needs to shapren up his secondary offerings and mybe add another pitch but most importanly just get those secondary pitches to improve. We have so much talent at SP that he may get thrown to the bullpen next year if we add a couple SPs in the offseason.
He is likely to end up trade bait as well.
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Post by MLBDreams on Aug 13, 2014 16:54:55 GMT -5
Brandon Workman is mystery pitcher just like Clay Buchholz. We don't know which game he shows up good or ugly. Clay have 3 good & 4 ugly seasons. Jmei pointed out that Brandon had good last season as starter and awful as the reliever but he performed best as reliever in the WS playoffs. That's why we all wanted him in bullpen spot next year since he's awful this year as starter for most of time.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 13, 2014 21:11:38 GMT -5
With the overabundance of #3/4/5 type starters the Sox system has it's more likely that Workman (perhaps along with Barnes and Escobar) winds up in the bullpen or he winds up on another team.
He's gopherball prone, but he could be a pretty durable reliever and given the Sox logjam of starters and the loss of Miller, and the potential loss of Badenhop and Breslow, there should be room in the pen for Workman.
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