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Post by amfox1 on Aug 21, 2014 15:14:38 GMT -5
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Post by quintanariffic on Aug 21, 2014 16:02:42 GMT -5
Completely agree with the last statement. That said, at least for the Red Sox in particular, I'd happily settle for just offensive competence as opposed to the automatic out status that our major prospects have represented this year. I don't know if it health issues at the position or what, but the Sox need to take a long hard look at their major league level hitting instruction. There's an extensive body of evidence to support the notion that ml performance is a reasonably good predictor of ML output. Bogaerts, Bradley and Middlebrooks (even when healthy) have all been massive disappointments by any reasonable set of expectations. Unfortunate coincidence? Perhaps. But if this level of performance is the new normal for even the best prospects, then the Red Sox, with the enormous pressure to compete for the post-season every year, are going to have a very hard time breaking rookies in.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 21, 2014 16:16:20 GMT -5
Wow, I wrote most of what was in that Gammons column yesterday in a couple of different posts - about the harder adjustment from AAA and all the pitchers in the majors who can throw 95 and harder.
If you saw JBJ recently you saw a hitter who has no idea what he is doing at the plate, and is completely unprepared for what is coming at him. He didn't look like that when he first came up. His batting stance is all screwed up. He can't possibly get around on a good fastball, and the pitchers know it. He needs time and he needs work with a good instructor. Bogaerts looks like he isn't adjusting to the adjustments made on him. Middlebrooks has never been the hitter he was before he was hurt last year.
I do think the hitting instruction on the Sox has not been good, at least not good for these players. But that cannot be blamed for everything. The players have to be able to recognize pitches and know how to adjust.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Aug 21, 2014 16:20:21 GMT -5
I think the video preparations point is a very good one, and I wonder if it's more true when a team is facing the World Series Champion Boston Red Sox than when they are facing the Houston Astros. I mean, logic would tell you that it wouldn't, that a win is a win and teams prepare roughly the same for different teams, but human nature probably doesn't work that way ... just like a player gets up a little bit more to face the Red Sox or Yankees, the video prep guys probably do, as well. I dunno, maybe a marginal difference ...
But I think the video preparations have just eviscerated JBJ. He has a swing that can be attacked in pretty specific ways, and teams are just ruthlessly attacking him. Maybe 20 years ago, he hits .250-.260 or something like that.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 21, 2014 18:55:21 GMT -5
Klaw chat today
Chis (Yay) Since the calendar hit June, Bogaerts is hitting .160/.204/.253 and striking out in over 25% of his plate appearances. I thought you said he's the next Tulo? Klaw At X's current age, Tulo was still in AA, and about to hit .240/.318/.292 in his first major-league callup (in Coors Field, no less).
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Post by terriblehondo on Aug 21, 2014 21:19:55 GMT -5
I am amazed at all the back pedaling. Most of the people who now are saying oh yeah of course he is struggling after all he is only 21 were the ones saying he was going to rake and win rookie of the year. Some prospects hit from day one some don't and some never do. It has been that way forever. The Shifts do make an impact but most of that is on pull hitting lefties. Word always got out on guys holes it is just quicker now. The hitter has to adjust the guys who can without creating other holes are stars. So far I have not seen much adjusting from the younger guys they still look bad on the same pitches. Maybe hunting some fastballs earlier in the counts might help. Instead of flailing or looking at sliders with 2 strikes.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 22, 2014 3:16:58 GMT -5
I'm wondering, as a whole, how young pitching is generally handling the changes as a comparison. It doesn't appear that industry wide there is as much of a problem making the adjustments.
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Post by cologneredsox on Aug 22, 2014 4:32:29 GMT -5
I am amazed at all the back pedaling. Most of the people who now are saying oh yeah of course he is struggling after all he is only 21 were the ones saying he was going to rake and win rookie of the year. Some prospects hit from day one some don't and some never do. It has been that way forever. The Shifts do make an impact but most of that is on pull hitting lefties. Word always got out on guys holes it is just quicker now. The hitter has to adjust the guys who can without creating other holes are stars. So far I have not seen much adjusting from the younger guys they still look bad on the same pitches. Maybe hunting some fastballs earlier in the counts might help. Instead of flailing or looking at sliders with 2 strikes. Let's call it the "Trout"-effect. And by a lesser degree Machado, Harper and the young pitchers (Fernandez, Gray for example) led to the feeling, the young players would be successful immediatly. For every Trout there are 4 Alex Gordons, it just takes time i guess...
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 22, 2014 5:47:08 GMT -5
I am amazed at all the back pedaling. Most of the people who now are saying oh yeah of course he is struggling after all he is only 21 were the ones saying he was going to rake and win rookie of the year. Some prospects hit from day one some don't and some never do. It has been that way forever. The Shifts do make an impact but most of that is on pull hitting lefties. Word always got out on guys holes it is just quicker now. The hitter has to adjust the guys who can without creating other holes are stars. So far I have not seen much adjusting from the younger guys they still look bad on the same pitches. Maybe hunting some fastballs earlier in the counts might help. Instead of flailing or looking at sliders with 2 strikes. "I think he is going to rake and win ROY" and "it's no big deal that he's struggling; he'll be fine long-term" are both reasonable statements. It's like when the weatherman says 60% chance of rain and it doesn't rain.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 22, 2014 8:07:46 GMT -5
Suddenly the meme is that that Sox in particular rushed Bogaerts, Bradley, Middlebrooks (and by implication, Betts) and as some of us have been saying, skipped some all important AAA experience for all three (and the Glob article points out Mookie has had less than 60 AAA ABs). After Gammo's article yesterday that looked at the struggle of some MLB rookies this year (which was interesting but lacked more extensive comparison numbers on past rookies of the same pre-season ranking, say, over the last 10 years). Today, Scott Lauber has a column, and Pete Abraham has a pretty extensive article that in large part focuses on the lack of AAA at bats by Middlebrooks, Bogaerts and Bradley. Some of this was forced by injuries, but Cherrington admits some errors in retrospect, as well. I've been lucky enough to meet some GMs, assistant GMs, MLB coaches and managers over the years and they all said pretty much what Pedroia and Nomar say in these pieces: significant time in AAA is invaluable for player development. Theo was a big proponent of 1,000 minor league at bats as a minimum. One manager, who is now managing a 1st place team in the AL once told me that, unless a guy is brought up in an emergency to cover an injury, he doesn't want to see a rookie who hasn't had at least 400 at bats in AAA, if not more no matter how talented he is. When I asked him why he said, "Because hitting major league pitching is the hardest thing to do in the most difficult game in the world." Read and decide for yourself.
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Post by okin15 on Aug 22, 2014 9:11:53 GMT -5
I'm wondering, as a whole, how young pitching is generally handling the changes as a comparison. It doesn't appear that industry wide there is as much of a problem making the adjustments. Pitching is better (or the numbers are at least) league-wide right now, so a pitcher can break in and look good to anyone who has been following baseball for more than 5 years. Furthermore, guys like Rubby and Webster have clearly taken a while to become established. The difference is that they can get their cups of coffee in a much more sporadic, managed way because of the nature of a) pitching every 5 days, and b) having no expectations except to be the 5th best guy on the staff (or 6th, 7th, etc.)
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Aug 22, 2014 9:34:46 GMT -5
And meanwhile, Cecchini, who has struggled most of the time at AAA this season, is just starting to emerge from an extended slump -- which has kept him basically at AAA accumulating PA and experience, and caused some on the board to write him off to one extent or another.
Might Cecchini better adapt to ML pitching given his struggles in AAA than the other ballyhooed prospects who have basically pooped the bed in their rookie seasons? (Betts too SSS to say anything yet). Stay tuned. And the real $64K question is, might Cecchini turn out to be a better overall offensive talent than any of the other top-grade prospects?
This certainly gives a persuasive argument for leaving Swihart at AAA at least until Sept. 2015 callups under almost any circumstances.
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Post by terriblehondo on Aug 22, 2014 9:47:51 GMT -5
I am amazed at all the back pedaling. Most of the people who now are saying oh yeah of course he is struggling after all he is only 21 were the ones saying he was going to rake and win rookie of the year. Some prospects hit from day one some don't and some never do. It has been that way forever. The Shifts do make an impact but most of that is on pull hitting lefties. Word always got out on guys holes it is just quicker now. The hitter has to adjust the guys who can without creating other holes are stars. So far I have not seen much adjusting from the younger guys they still look bad on the same pitches. Maybe hunting some fastballs earlier in the counts might help. Instead of flailing or looking at sliders with 2 strikes. "I think he is going to rake and win ROY" and "it's no big deal that he's struggling; he'll be fine long-term" are both reasonable statements. It's like when the weatherman says 60% chance of rain and it doesn't rain. They are both reasonable statements. But X may also never make the adjustment and not hit or make the adjustment and open another hole that he cannot close. I knew JBJ was a great center fielder from watching him in college and I thought he would hit enough. On defense if a guy is a plus fielder he can field in the Majors. Hitting does not translate as well. I have seen to many hitters who were supposed to be all that fail or be mediocre through the years. I think X will hit also but I get worried when you keep getting beat the same way for a long period of time. I thought watching him at the end of last year he would take the pitch away to right and I have not seen that this year. In X the bat has to play up to carry the glove. Hanley as much as I hated watching him play short after Gonzo at least he hit.
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Post by terriblehondo on Aug 22, 2014 9:51:23 GMT -5
As I have said before I want to trade all the top prospects we have that aren't going to pan out in the Majors and keep the one's that will. Now if we can just find the crystal ball that will predict which is which things will be great.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,948
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Post by jimoh on Aug 22, 2014 9:55:56 GMT -5
"I think he is going to rake and win ROY" and "it's no big deal that he's struggling; he'll be fine long-term" are both reasonable statements. It's like when the weatherman says 60% chance of rain and it doesn't rain. They are both reasonable statements. But X may also never make the adjustment and not hit or make the adjustment and open another hole that he cannot close. I knew JBJ was a great center fielder from watching him in college and I thought he would hit enough. On defense if a guy is a plus fielder he can field in the Majors. Hitting does not translate as well. I have seen to many hitters who were supposed to be all that fail or be mediocre through the years. I think X will hit also but I get worried when you keep getting beat the same way for a long period of time. I thought watching him at the end of last year he would take the pitch away to right and I have not seen that this year. In X the bat has to play up to carry the glove. Hanley as much as I hated watching him play short after Gonzo at least he hit. He "may" not make the adjustment, just as he "may" get hit by a bus tomorrow. But not hitting well as a 21YO does not suggest it is likely that he will not hit well. JBJ is another story.
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Post by terriblehondo on Aug 22, 2014 11:45:11 GMT -5
Not hitting well at 21 does also not suggest that he "will" hit well either. It also does not show a timeline on if he is going to hit when it will be. Next week, next spring or 4 years from now. If it takes 3/4 years are you willing to put up with that defense at SS. Look at Moustakas for the Royals his 25 now and still not hitting what everyone thought he would.
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Post by jmei on Aug 23, 2014 5:59:11 GMT -5
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Post by suttree on Aug 23, 2014 9:29:45 GMT -5
You don't want to overreact or ignore the results. Most prospects fail. Bad hitting is bad hitting.
My biggest concern is that none of our rookies have established a reasonable baseline of performance going into next season. Building a team around several unknowns is risky.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 23, 2014 14:51:33 GMT -5
The phillies Schmidt struggled in his first year, but went in to have a huge career.
Bogey is a future all star. He is just currently struggling in a pull happy phase.
Bogey is a keeper.
Bradley is at least another year from being the hitter we think he is, but I am not sure we can wait that long.
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Post by Gwell55 on Aug 23, 2014 15:21:47 GMT -5
The phillies Schmidt struggled in his first year, but went in to have a huge career. Bogey is a future all star. He is just currently struggling in a pull happy phase. Bogey is a keeper. Bradley is at least another year from being the hitter we think he is, but I am not sure we can wait that long. Most likely we won't need him until 16 unless we want him up late for defense.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 23, 2014 17:21:43 GMT -5
Bradley's defense is huge and I think he becomes a decent hitter, but he has hitting issues to work out and he needs to learn how to adjust when pitchers adjust how they pitch him.
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 23, 2014 18:22:40 GMT -5
I like the topic... I'll go to my grave swearing (right or wrong) that if the Sox FO had done the right thing and not promote him so early, he'd be a much different hitter now.
Someone suggested that with the Castillo signing, JBJ/Betts/Cecchini (since they have Holt not playing OF) could play all of 2015 more or less at Pawtucket. I would love that, and think it's a great long term view. Unfortunately, I think there will be trades this fall which would be selling low on those players.
Even someone like Brentz (600 PAs at AAA) hasn't had a full healthy season. This year he has better K/BB numbers and may hit well next year. The question is do the Sox take the long view for themselves, or let it be someone else's problem, and bring in a SP.
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 23, 2014 18:23:47 GMT -5
I'll also repeat that I'm buying JBJ and selling Cecchini, but I'll never be shocked to see a guy with great work ethic and attitude (Xander, Betts, Cecchini, JBJ all by varying accounts) do what it takes to adjust and succeed.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 23, 2014 19:56:10 GMT -5
I'll also repeat that I'm buying JBJ and selling Cecchini, but I'll never be shocked to see a guy with great work ethic and attitude (Xander, Betts, Cecchini, JBJ all by varying accounts) do what it takes to adjust and succeed. I think we did see Bradley adjust by opening up his stance to be able to turn on the inside pitches, but now he can't cover the outside of the plate. Unfortunately Bradley struggles to adjust when pitchers adjust to him. He just need more mlb at bats to figure it out.
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Post by bjb406 on Aug 23, 2014 23:01:49 GMT -5
Part of the beauty about Bradley is that he should make the team with his defensive ability alone. Even if you don't play him every day he at least has value as a defensive replacement. I think you count on him being on the roster most of the season even if he isn't starting, and maybe being an up and down guy for parts of it, but don't necessarily plan on him starting, just be happy if he wins a spot. Betts has similar value in that he can play solid defensively basically anywhere on the field.
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