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2014 All-Star Voting - Shortstop
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Post by jmei on Sept 8, 2014 9:21:02 GMT -5
It's time to vote for our annual SoxProspects All-Stars! Please place your vote for the player that you feel had the best season in 2014. Please do not vote based on who you think is the best prospect or who you think may perform better in the future, and please only consider minor league performance. Note that positional eligibility was determined by the SoxProspects Staff, primarily based on the number of games played per position. If there is a player you wanted to vote for but who is not listed, it's likely that they were nominated at a different position. Full stats available here: www.soxprospects.com/stats/hitting.phpPartial stats leaderboard: Ryan Dent* (SAL/POR) 376 ABs, .245/.335/.372, 4 HR, 43/89 BB/K, 15 SB Mauricio Dubon* (LOW) 256 ABs, .320/.337/.395, 3 HR, 9/26 BB/K, 7 SB Javier Guerra* (GCL) 201 ABs, .269/.286/.408, 2 HR, 5/42 BB/K, 1 SB Deven Marrero* (POR/PAW) 454 ABs, .258/.327/.372, 6 HR, 46/94 BB/K, 16 SB Mike Miller* (SAL/POR) 285 ABs, .305/.363/.379, 3 HR, 21/39 BB/K, 10 SB
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 10, 2014 23:26:17 GMT -5
The first close race (as I go around the infield), and I think folks are getting it wrong. Dubon had the better season at the plate, but not by that much (.003 in the Davenport Peak Projections). And when you add in Marrero's defense and the huge extra amount of PT, he's the choice.
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Post by jmei on Sept 11, 2014 7:42:28 GMT -5
If we're looking for the player who had the best season, I don't see much reason to look at adjusted translations (which are concerned about how good a player will be, not how good he has been) rather than raw wOBA, and Dubon has a decently sized edge there (.337 to .328). Dubon's also not a terrible defender, so I can see folks preferring Dubon. At any rate, it's a close race.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Sept 11, 2014 19:28:15 GMT -5
I also think it is appropriate to discount the PA difference since Dubon played the full season at Lowell.
Its close, and it should be.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 12, 2014 7:19:57 GMT -5
One of two close ones. Intriguing.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 12, 2014 16:01:16 GMT -5
If we're looking for the player who had the best season, I don't see much reason to look at adjusted translations (which are concerned about how good a player will be, not how good he has been) rather than raw wOBA, and Dubon has a decently sized edge there (.337 to .328). Dubon's also not a terrible defender, so I can see folks preferring Dubon. At any rate, it's a close race. You do want, however, to adjust for league offensive level and for park. TAv does that and throws in first-order quality of opposition as frosting. Dubon was .266, Marrero was .250. But that was .290, which earned him a promotion to a tougher league, where he was .190. If he stays in Portland, he's probably close to Dubon ... which is precisely what's reflected in the Peak Translations. We're getting into a grey area here: it's very common for players to struggle after a promotion, so being good enough to get promoted needs to be factored in, not just the total stat line for the season. Let's say you had a rule of thumb that said promotions follow a TAv of .275 or better. The guy who puts up .280 gets promoted, the guy who puts up .270 doesn't, and the better hitter ends up with a lower overall TAv because .280 at one level will get you .260 at the next. While there's no such rule of thumb, the general principle applies: arguing that Dubson had a decent edge at the plate on Marrero, rather than a slight one, is quite possibly penalizing Marrero for being so good at Portland that he got promoted when the season was just 60% over. Ultimately I think the stellar Marrero defense wins the day.
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Post by jmei on Sept 12, 2014 16:15:26 GMT -5
I don't disagree with any of that, but they all go to the question of who was the better prospect, not who had the better season, and it's the latter question we're voting on. Yeah, it's an artificial/arbitrary question, but if you just wanted to know who was the better prospect, well that's what the rankings are for.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 13, 2014 8:05:49 GMT -5
I don't disagree with any of that, but they all go to the question of who was the better prospect, not who had the better season, and it's the latter question we're voting on. Yeah, it's an artificial/arbitrary question, but if you just wanted to know who was the better prospect, well that's what the rankings are for. I don't see that. Discounting a slump because you know the guy made an adjustment, a la Barnes -- that's judging the prospect, not the season. But adjusting for park, league offense level, opposition quality -- obviously season. Player A getting promoted a level, while B didn't? I think that's part of the season. I mean, two guys start in high-A, one gets promoted to AA and one doesn't, they end up with absolutely identical stat lines -- the guy who got promoted had the better season, didn't he? It was the same season, plus a promotion. So a promotion is worth something when you evaluate a season, and therefore it might be worth enough to offset a worse stat line.
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Post by jmei on Sept 13, 2014 9:34:45 GMT -5
I have no issue with the TAv adjustments. But giving a prospect a bump up because he got promoted seems to go too far, IMO. It delves into counterfactuals by assuming that prospect A would not have slumped if he hadn't been promoted and that prospect B wouldn't have performed just as well had he been promoted. Promotion decisions are also out of these guys' hands, and I don't want to penalize them or reward them for things they can't control. Sure, if two prospects are effectively tied, maybe you give the tie to the promoted one. But Dubon had a sixteen point edge in TAv, and he's also an above-average defender (though Marrero still has a solid edge). It's close, but I went with Dubon, and I think that's a defensible position.
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