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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 3, 2015 10:44:52 GMT -5
I love that Guerra trusts his arm so much. He knows he has it, but also only uses it when he knows he needs to.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 3, 2015 10:47:42 GMT -5
Jose who?
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Post by soxfanatic on Jun 3, 2015 10:56:02 GMT -5
I love that Guerra trusts his arm so much. He knows he has it, but also only uses it when he knows he needs to. Andrelton Simmons' style
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 4, 2015 14:04:51 GMT -5
It's great to hear the good reports on his defense. Because, he's putting up a heck of a slash line for anyone in the Sally, let alone a 19yr old shortstop. 295/354/510/864. A .510 Slug pct is an eye opener. I think he'll finish the year as our 4th best positional prospect behind; Moncada, Devers and Margot. Right now he's behind Marrero and Chavis. Swihart won't be eligible. Buster Olney will have traded him by next year's Future Games.
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Post by m1keyboots on Jun 4, 2015 15:19:02 GMT -5
I love that Guerra trusts his arm so much. He knows he has it, but also only uses it when he knows he needs to. I'll admit I've only seen him a couple of times, but with that, highlights, etc I like how quick his release is too, from different angles as well. If that bat continues and dubon stays duboning...and Yoan aybar. Yeesh.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 6, 2015 10:13:40 GMT -5
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 6, 2015 10:45:06 GMT -5
Does the write-up from an amateur enthusiast qualify as a "review"?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 6, 2015 11:10:40 GMT -5
Does the write-up from an amateur enthusiast qualify as a "review"? Well review isn't even a baseball term, so I opted for that rather than "scouting report".
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Post by okin15 on Jul 6, 2015 12:15:12 GMT -5
Even if he never learns to hit LHP, a LHH IF bench bat is a very intriguing thing to have. I am certainly still worried about the BB/K%
Following might be a better term than "worried"
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 6, 2015 15:30:44 GMT -5
At some point in the next couple of years one of the Sox minor league teams might have a middle infield of De La Guerra and Guerra.
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Post by brnichols19873 on Jul 10, 2015 17:09:50 GMT -5
heres his write-up from the BP "helium" watch BP top50 midseason "just missed" section:
"If he’s not the best defensive shortstop in the minors, the low Class A Greenville standout certainly is in the discussion. He’s got excellent range, hands and arm strength, and the keen instincts and reaction time required to compensate for above-average—not plus—foot speed."
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Jul 13, 2015 11:01:05 GMT -5
I am very surprised he has 11 homers for the year. It appears by his numbers/slash line, that his offense is above average as well.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 13, 2015 11:30:21 GMT -5
You know..... Addy-Tran brings up some good points. I'm also very pleased with Javier Guerra.
But seriously for a prospect that is suppose to be glove first he's putting up some numbers that would be impressive even if he wasn't age advanced. Even if we're to trust the scouting over the numbers I would be encouraged and hopeful that he might be able to hit at least well enough with his glove to be an everyday MLB short stop. Can't wait to see him in Portland in 2017, maybe even by the end of next year.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 13, 2015 12:31:48 GMT -5
BP's Tucker Blair with a scouting report on Guerra: www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=26319He praises his defense but is notably down on his power potential (" might run into five home runs a year"). A 50/55 projection is nothing to sneeze at, but Blair seems much less enthusiastic about his ceiling that most. Safe to say for me that he's wrong on that one. Anyone who is age advanced and has 11 HR in about a half season probably has more than a 5 HRs at most ceiling in the majors.
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Post by sibbysisti on Jul 13, 2015 12:48:13 GMT -5
At some point in the next couple of years one of the Sox minor league teams might have a middle infield of De La Guerra and Guerra. You might say the Sox would go to war with that duo. The Sox look well stocked at the SS position with Marco Hernandez, Dubon, Lin and Guerrra for the future. With X-man a fixture for a long time at the position, the team will have lots of options available.
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Post by brnichols19873 on Jul 13, 2015 13:08:35 GMT -5
BP's Tucker Blair with a scouting report on Guerra: www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=26319He praises his defense but is notably down on his power potential (" might run into five home runs a year"). A 50/55 projection is nothing to sneeze at, but Blair seems much less enthusiastic about his ceiling that most. Safe to say for me that he's wrong on that one. Anyone who is age advanced and has 11 HR in about a half season probably has more than a 5 HRs at most ceiling in the majors. You have to take into account that this scouting report is from very early in the season may 2/3rd to be exact and thus less than four weeks into greenvilles season at which point guerra had just two home runs and therefore its plausible to assume that much of the report on his power/hit rools were heavily based on past mediocre results in those categories up to that point in guerra`s young career. To this end, given his progression in the hit/power department one would think those projections will rise as more scouts take note, I could easily see his power grade which Blair gave a future grade of 30 upped to the 40 to 45 range and his hit tool which he put a 40 future grade on rise up to the 50 range come this offseason and with his 60+ feild and 70 arm that 50 hit could propel him to a 65 future grade making him a comparable prospect to margot, devers ect...for those questioning that future upside consider a few quotes from inside the organization that appeared in recent articles and which state that his ceiling is higher than that of any player in Greenville (that includes Moncada/Devers) Boston globe>The left-handed-hitting shortstop entered the season with a glove-first profile. GCL Red Sox manager Tom Kotchman called Guerra "the best shortstop I've worked with in 35 years" when the club won the championship last summer, and MLB.com pegged him with above-average 60 grades for both his glove and arm in the offseason." Milb.com>>Hitting coach Nelson Paulino suggested that Guerra might develop 20-homer power, and the Sox have witnessed him making rapid leaps in his selectivity. milb.com>>(Speaking about the talent in Greenville which includes Devers and Moncada) “He might have the highest ceiling of the group, because in addition to physical tools, he has instincts that are incredibly hard to teach,” said (Greenville manager) Fenster.
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Post by jchang on Jul 13, 2015 13:20:44 GMT -5
Guerra is listed as 5'11", 165lb, compare with Mookie at 5-9, 156lb. I assume these are when they signed (presumably ht is same) So it is not surprising that both added weight and strength between years 18 - 19 (- 20 Mookie) so what where flyouts now might be HRs. Mookie got his power burst at age 20, Guerra is doing it at age 19. Somewhere one of the articles on Nava said he couldn't hit out of the infield at 20 or so, but apparently he had good contact skills?
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 13, 2015 13:58:08 GMT -5
Safe to say for me that he's wrong on that one. Anyone who is age advanced and has 11 HR in about a half season probably has more than a 5 HRs at most ceiling in the majors. You have to take into account that this scouting report is from very early in the season may 2/3rd to be exact and thus less than four weeks into greenvilles season at which point guerra had just two home runs and therefore its plausible to assume that much of the report on his power/hit rools were heavily based on past mediocre results in those categories up to that point in guerra`s young career. A .139 ISO in 2014 indicated more than the almost no power he was predicting. I bet Joe Kelly would be graded a 30 if he were a hitter.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 13, 2015 14:29:05 GMT -5
Yeah I think Guerra has played his way out of that 30-35 power territory, that's for sure.
Showing off some exceptional power for an alleged glove-first teenage middle infielder. Not too shabby at all.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Jul 14, 2015 10:10:17 GMT -5
The mighty Guerra I believe leads our minors in homers.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 14, 2015 15:45:51 GMT -5
12:38 Comment From Mike Javier Guerra now has 11 HRs…do the grades on his power need to be upgraded or is he just running into a couple?
12:39 Kiley McDaniel: Fringy raw power if I recall my notes from earlier this year correctly, plays to 12-15 per year or so in a good scenario, could easily be a tick less.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 14, 2015 15:50:52 GMT -5
12:38 Comment From Mike Javier Guerra now has 11 HRs…do the grades on his power need to be upgraded or is he just running into a couple? 12:39 Kiley McDaniel: Fringy raw power if I recall my notes from earlier this year correctly, plays to 12-15 per year or so in a good scenario, could easily be a tick less. Fringy raw power is 40-45 right? Not the 30 that Tucker Blair (BP) has. And what is really strange, is that he labeled it average raw power and slapped a 30 on it: It's just totally contradicting himself. 30 is well below average, not average. And I really don't see how he could grade raw power so much higher than game power, if that's what he's doing.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 14, 2015 16:00:01 GMT -5
Raw power is not the same as game power. He's giving him a 30 on game power and saying he has average raw that his swing and profile won't allow him to tap into.
Also, this wouldn't be the first time two different scouts had a difference of opinion on a player they've seen only a few times. It's not like either has sat on him for a month or something.
Sorry to repeat myself, but this REALLY does feel a lot like when Cecchini stole 50 bags in Greenville and everyone was like "how can you say he's not going to steal bases when he stole 50!!!"
I'm not coming down either way on this, but I'm just saying it's not crazy to think that his power won't play in the majors to the degree it has been in Low A.
EDIT: Another example I just thought of is Carlos Asuaje, who we pretty much literally went through this with last year. Had 11 at this point and went up to Salem. Hit 4 in half a season there and has 4 in Portland this year. Yes, different age advancement profile, but the point is that you can hit home runs in A ball and not project to do that in the majors.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jul 14, 2015 19:45:54 GMT -5
Sorry to repeat myself, but this REALLY does feel a lot like when Cecchini stole 50 bags in Greenville and everyone was like "how can you say he's not going to steal bases when he stole 50!!!" Sorry, but this is a bad example: I mean in A ball pitchers aren't working on how to hold runners and catchers haven't fully developped their throwing runners skills so someone with Cecchini polish (he's the son of two baseball coaches after all) can steal a high number of bags without the plus plus speed. I remember that Speier wrote last year that after a year where he showed some strike zone judgement (2013), Guerra showed "intriguing" power in 2014...so I'm not gonna think that those numbers are an exception...He deserved the skeptisism about those reports slaping his power as fringy. Also, Asuaje was 22 last year and Guerra is 19 with more physical growth coming.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 14, 2015 20:45:45 GMT -5
Maybe, but he won't be getting nearly as many mistake pitches as he goes up the ladder either. He could be hitting a ton of HR's of mistakes. The coming scouting reports from Chris and Ian will help.
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