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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 21, 2016 9:12:20 GMT -5
Assuming health (which is dangerous), Sox go into next year with the rotation of Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright and then Pomeranz. That's a hell of a rotation. Maybe Buchholz as a spare, too. I'd love to determine the average number of total starts made by the 5 starters by teams with 5 good ones, or the average number of starts by the 6th starter on teams with 6 good ones (smaller sample, but it includes the overlapping injury factor which will reduce the number of opportunities for the 6 guy). The problem is that you'll miss teams that lost a projected starter for most or all of the season. Folks often cite the 2004 Sox as a team that got a ridiculous 157 starts from their rotation, but the intended 5th starter on that team was not Bronson Arroyo (29 GS) but Byung-Hyun Kim (3). Just looking at the average number of GS of pitchers who had 40 IP as a starter and ERA- of 115 or less, it seems very likely that you get 15 or 20 starts from Buchholz if you keep him as the 6th starter. Meanwhile, if you look at metrics for: -- E-Rod since his DL return -- Buchholz in his last 5 starts since his rotation return (the first was on 2 days rest and a short pitch count) -- Pomeranz since his acquisition, excluding his first start ... then E-Rod has pretty clearly established himself as the post-season #3 starter. Clay has the edge for 4, and the brilliant thing you can do is lift him after an inning or two and bring in Pomeranz if the bad version shows up like it did against the Blue Jays. But that's just happened once in 5 starts.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 21, 2016 9:12:44 GMT -5
ERod's a little inconsistent, but that's expected from someone so young. But when he's on, he's pretty dominating. He looks like a guy who could be an ace in a couple years.
And, yeah, next year's rotation is pretty good. And there's no one in that rotation signed for less than two more years ...
Price (opt-out): 2018 Pomeranz (FA eligible): 2018 Porcello (contract expires): 2019 Wright (FA eligible): 2021 Rodriguez (FA eligible): 2022
That's pretty solid.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Sept 21, 2016 9:32:22 GMT -5
It is looking more and more that Buchholz' 13 mil option will be picked up. He would be the 6th starter/long man. That being said, a normal #6 should get plenty of starts and it would be his walk year.
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Post by brendan98 on Sept 21, 2016 13:31:42 GMT -5
It is looking more and more that Buchholz' 13 mil option will be picked up. He would be the 6th starter/long man. That being said, a normal #6 should get plenty of starts and it would be his walk year. I've always felt like the 6th starter/longman was a perfect role for a knuckleballer, so maybe Clay as the 5th starter with Wright in the pen until injury and/or performance dictates a switch. Then again, if Wright can do what he did in the 1st half this year, I guess he has to be a starter out of the gate. Tim Wakefield began his Red Sox career much the same way Wright did in terms of performance, and had separate stretches of dominance during his time with the Sox, but I don't think we can assume that Wrights 1st half will be the norm for his career.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 21, 2016 22:30:44 GMT -5
It is looking more and more that Buchholz' 13 mil option will be picked up. He would be the 6th starter/long man. That being said, a normal #6 should get plenty of starts and it would be his walk year. I've always felt like the 6th starter/longman was a perfect role for a knuckleballer, so maybe Clay as the 5th starter with Wright in the pen until injury and/or performance dictates a switch. Then again, if Wright can do what he did in the 1st half this year, I guess he has to be a starter out of the gate. Tim Wakefield began his Red Sox career much the same way Wright did in terms of performance, and had separate stretches of dominance during his time with the Sox, but I don't think we can assume that Wrights 1st half will be the norm for his career. I think Wright's earned a fixed rotation spot, probably 4 next year (I see L-R-L-R-L with E-Rod having more upside and a solid second half). But I agree that, looking at his stats in any depth (especially his xFIP, but also K-BB, exit velo, etc.) it's probably a mistake to expect any consistent presence of first-half Wright. He'll probably settle in as a high-3/low-4 ERA guy who has records roughly reflective of the team record (hopefully .550-.600 for the next several years) and serves as a high-quality 4 by putting up #3 lines. That's plenty good if Price has a little luck in the future, Porcello's emergence is real, and Rodriguez takes the step forward a lot of us expect, and becomes a 1a-2 performer in the #3 slot. I don't see Pomeranz continuing to be as bad as he has been since his acquisition (and he did have a very nice stretch, sandwiched by awfulness). That makes for an excellent rotation, particularly if Clay is who has been the past month. He may actually build real trade value. For me, Rodriguez as the biggest question is the biggest key. If he puts it all together, he very easily could have the year Porcello is having. Despite the time off, he looks to be evolving before our eyes.
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Post by tjb21 on Sept 22, 2016 15:08:06 GMT -5
Clay is who he is at this point.
Dominating when right. Frustrating when not.
I don't see why his option isn't picked up. Good for him and good for Boston to have 6 starting options going into next year (I think Clay will be traded FWIW).
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Post by ryan24 on Sept 23, 2016 10:16:40 GMT -5
I've always felt like the 6th starter/longman was a perfect role for a knuckleballer, so maybe Clay as the 5th starter with Wright in the pen until injury and/or performance dictates a switch. Then again, if Wright can do what he did in the 1st half this year, I guess he has to be a starter out of the gate. Tim Wakefield began his Red Sox career much the same way Wright did in terms of performance, and had separate stretches of dominance during his time with the Sox, but I don't think we can assume that Wrights 1st half will be the norm for his career. I think Wright's earned a fixed rotation spot, probably 4 next year (I see L-R-L-R-L with E-Rod having more upside and a solid second half). But I agree that, looking at his stats in any depth (especially his xFIP, but also K-BB, exit velo, etc.) it's probably a mistake to expect any consistent presence of first-half Wright. He'll probably settle in as a high-3/low-4 ERA guy who has records roughly reflective of the team record (hopefully .550-.600 for the next several years) and serves as a high-quality 4 by putting up #3 lines. That's plenty good if Price has a little luck in the future, Porcello's emergence is real, and Rodriguez takes the step forward a lot of us expect, and becomes a 1a-2 performer in the #3 slot. I don't see Pomeranz continuing to be as bad as he has been since his acquisition (and he did have a very nice stretch, sandwiched by awfulness). That makes for an excellent rotation, particularly if Clay is who has been the past month. He may actually build real trade value. For me, Rodriguez as the biggest question is the biggest key. If he puts it all together, he very easily could have the year Porcello is having. Despite the time off, he looks to be evolving before our eyes. It seems that most all think that the sox pick up clay's option. Then trade over the winter,during spring training or before july deadline. Picking up the option I think is a given. I think the sox for next season have 8 potential starting pitchers. They fall into 3 tiers. Tier one is price and porcello. Rock solid given. Tier two is drew, erod, and wright. Each one is considered questionable to me. erod is young and developing. Not very consistent YET. Looks like a potential ace, but when? Drew does he develop and consistently go back to the pitcher he was with the padres or does he continue to be mediocre like he has been with the sox. Not to say he hasn't had some very good games. Wright, how does he perform next spring after the injury? He certainly will help the rotation big time if he is close to where he was in the first half of the season. Eat up innings and be quite a change of pace to the rest of the starters. None of the three really proven yet. Tier three is clay, owens and Johnson. Clay is clay, but he has proven streaks where he can be dominating. If owens can throw strikes and spot his fastball to make his curve be effective then he could be an option. The throwing strikes is a BIG question mark. Johnson while not overpowering has shown that he can get big league hitters out. But a small sample. Does he continue to make progress from his personal issues? Interesting puzzle. With injuries and rainouts you definitely need a 6th starter. Kopech and groome are at least 2 yrs away. I think this is an excellent problem to have. But, I am not so sure the sox get rid of clay until/if tier 2 straightens itself out and whether the other 2 tier 3 pitchers make or break it. Even though he is the most marketable I am not so sure I would get rid of clay next year. Of course depends on what you get back in a trade.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 23, 2016 15:54:56 GMT -5
I think Wright's earned a fixed rotation spot, probably 4 next year (I see L-R-L-R-L with E-Rod having more upside and a solid second half). But I agree that, looking at his stats in any depth (especially his xFIP, but also K-BB, exit velo, etc.) it's probably a mistake to expect any consistent presence of first-half Wright. He'll probably settle in as a high-3/low-4 ERA guy who has records roughly reflective of the team record (hopefully .550-.600 for the next several years) and serves as a high-quality 4 by putting up #3 lines. That's plenty good if Price has a little luck in the future, Porcello's emergence is real, and Rodriguez takes the step forward a lot of us expect, and becomes a 1a-2 performer in the #3 slot. I don't see Pomeranz continuing to be as bad as he has been since his acquisition (and he did have a very nice stretch, sandwiched by awfulness). That makes for an excellent rotation, particularly if Clay is who has been the past month. He may actually build real trade value. For me, Rodriguez as the biggest question is the biggest key. If he puts it all together, he very easily could have the year Porcello is having. Despite the time off, he looks to be evolving before our eyes. It seems that most all think that the sox pick up clay's option. Then trade over the winter,during spring training or before july deadline. Picking up the option I think is a given. I think the sox for next season have 8 potential starting pitchers. They fall into 3 tiers. Tier one is price and porcello. Rock solid given. Tier two is drew, erod, and wright. Each one is considered questionable to me. erod is young and developing. Not very consistent YET. Looks like a potential ace, but when? Drew does he develop and consistently go back to the pitcher he was with the padres or does he continue to be mediocre like he has been with the sox. Not to say he hasn't had some very good games. Wright, how does he perform next spring after the injury? He certainly will help the rotation big time if he is close to where he was in the first half of the season. Eat up innings and be quite a change of pace to the rest of the starters. None of the three really proven yet. Tier three is clay, owens and Johnson. Clay is clay, but he has proven streaks where he can be dominating. If owens can throw strikes and spot his fastball to make his curve be effective then he could be an option. The throwing strikes is a BIG question mark. Johnson while not overpowering has shown that he can get big league hitters out. But a small sample. Does he continue to make progress from his personal issues? Interesting puzzle. With injuries and rainouts you definitely need a 6th starter. Kopech and groome are at least 2 yrs away. I think this is an excellent problem to have. But, I am not so sure the sox get rid of clay until/if tier 2 straightens itself out and whether the other 2 tier 3 pitchers make or break it. Even though he is the most marketable I am not so sure I would get rid of clay next year. Of course depends on what you get back in a trade. Good analysis, ryan. Paragraph breaks are your friend! I gave you an example. I bolded your best point. If you're really confident that you can call up Henry Owens (or Johnson) and have him pitch really well, then you would consider trading Buchholz if you could get a top prospect for him. If he's a bit frustrated from lack of opportunity, and teams are beating down your door, it could absolutely be the smart move. You could wait until July for sure.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 23, 2016 16:47:19 GMT -5
I've always felt like the 6th starter/longman was a perfect role for a knuckleballer, so maybe Clay as the 5th starter with Wright in the pen until injury and/or performance dictates a switch. Then again, if Wright can do what he did in the 1st half this year, I guess he has to be a starter out of the gate. Tim Wakefield began his Red Sox career much the same way Wright did in terms of performance, and had separate stretches of dominance during his time with the Sox, but I don't think we can assume that Wrights 1st half will be the norm for his career. I think Wright's earned a fixed rotation spot, probably 4 next year (I see L-R-L-R-L with E-Rod having more upside and a solid second half). But I agree that, looking at his stats in any depth (especially his xFIP, but also K-BB, exit velo, etc.) it's probably a mistake to expect any consistent presence of first-half Wright. He'll probably settle in as a high-3/low-4 ERA guy who has records roughly reflective of the team record (hopefully .550-.600 for the next several years) and serves as a high-quality 4 by putting up #3 lines. That's plenty good if Price has a little luck in the future, Porcello's emergence is real, and Rodriguez takes the step forward a lot of us expect, and becomes a 1a-2 performer in the #3 slot. I don't see Pomeranz continuing to be as bad as he has been since his acquisition (and he did have a very nice stretch, sandwiched by awfulness). That makes for an excellent rotation, particularly if Clay is who has been the past month. He may actually build real trade value. For me, Rodriguez as the biggest question is the biggest key. If he puts it all together, he very easily could have the year Porcello is having. Despite the time off, he looks to be evolving before our eyes. I just want to remind folks that E-Rod has a cutter and a sinker, neither of which he is using since his recall. They have both looked like good pitches. That he can be as dominant as he has often been with just 3 pitches is actually quite eye-opening. I think he's an ace within two years, and maybe next year. Wright's bad ERA starting June 25 was inflated hugely by some slow hooks. On July 1 he had skated through 5 scoreless IP allowing 6 hits, 2 BB, 3 SO, then gave up 2B, HB, BB and was clearly struggling with his command. There are certainly some managers that would have lifted him at that point, 5th inning or not, because it certainly looks like a big inning is going to happen otherwise (Sox were up 5-0). C.J. Cron then hit a GS, chasing him. That's 2 extra ER versus yanking him (average reliever allows 2 of the inherited runners), so let's call that 1 slow hook run based on a 50-50 judgment call. On July 6 he had an 11-1 lead after 5 IP and ordinarily would have been pulled after giving up a 2-run homer in the 6th. After that he gave up 3 ER and 4 H in 0.2 IP. On July 15th he was predictably rusty on 8 days rest after the ASB, and was terrific in his next start. On July 26th he had bad command and gave up 4 ER in the first 2 innings. He pitched 2 good frames, and then walked Iglesias and Miguel Cabrera on 5 pitches each. Sox are up 5-4. You really don't want to let him face Victor Martinez here, right? I remember saying no. Farrell left him in for five more batters, 3 H, and 4 runs. That's 3 extra ER (average reliever allows 1) in 0.2 IP from the slow hook. On July 31 he went into the 5th in a scoreless tie with a 4 6 0 0 1 5 line. After getting the first out, he gave up 3 straight singles, got a GB out that scored the second run, then walked Andrelton Simmons on 5 pitches. Maybe you yank him at that point, but I admit the extra 1 ER in 0.1 innings (Jefry Marte scorched his next pitch for an RBI single) was likely to happen anyway. And of course the last two starts where he was hurt aren't predictive and should not have happened. I honestly believe that if I had been managing him, his ERA starting June 25 is somewhere between 3.04 (which excludes the first game after the break) and 3.40 (which includes it). That's what you get when you make the above adjustments. So, no, we can't project him as a 2.01 ERA pitcher like he was before that stretch. But he had a 5.55 ERA after that despite being a 3.40 or better ERA pitcher. The comparison with Wakefield in '95 really doesn't hold -- when Wakefield lost it, he was just getting lit up.
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Post by ryan24 on Sept 23, 2016 20:33:45 GMT -5
It seems that most all think that the sox pick up clay's option. Then trade over the winter,during spring training or before july deadline. Picking up the option I think is a given. I think the sox for next season have 8 potential starting pitchers. They fall into 3 tiers. Tier one is price and porcello. Rock solid given. Tier two is drew, erod, and wright. Each one is considered questionable to me. erod is young and developing. Not very consistent YET. Looks like a potential ace, but when? Drew does he develop and consistently go back to the pitcher he was with the padres or does he continue to be mediocre like he has been with the sox. Not to say he hasn't had some very good games. Wright, how does he perform next spring after the injury? He certainly will help the rotation big time if he is close to where he was in the first half of the season. Eat up innings and be quite a change of pace to the rest of the starters. None of the three really proven yet. Tier three is clay, owens and Johnson. Clay is clay, but he has proven streaks where he can be dominating. If owens can throw strikes and spot his fastball to make his curve be effective then he could be an option. The throwing strikes is a BIG question mark. Johnson while not overpowering has shown that he can get big league hitters out. But a small sample. Does he continue to make progress from his personal issues? Interesting puzzle. With injuries and rainouts you definitely need a 6th starter. Kopech and groome are at least 2 yrs away. I think this is an excellent problem to have. But, I am not so sure the sox get rid of clay until/if tier 2 straightens itself out and whether the other 2 tier 3 pitchers make or break it. Even though he is the most marketable I am not so sure I would get rid of clay next year. Of course depends on what you get back in a trade. Good analysis, ryan. Paragraph breaks are your friend! I gave you an example. I bolded your best point. If you're really confident that you can call up Henry Owens (or Johnson) and have him pitch really well, then you would consider trading Buchholz if you could get a top prospect for him. If he's a bit frustrated from lack of opportunity, and teams are beating down your door, it could absolutely be the smart move. You could wait until July for sure. Thanks for the feedback. Good point I did not think about whether cl;ay would get frustrated.
It seems at times on these boards that we rush to the conclusion to trade people, before we think of the consequences. Make a trade to rebuild the farm system. Or trade someone to get a bullpen pitcher.
An example was in the minor rebuild section. We should trade away blake or cv because we have leon and only one of the first two are going to be playing regular. Here again they breakdown in three tiers.
Tier one is Leon. A vet who is out of options with a rep as a good defensive catcher. His sample right now is a 2 month window where he has hit like never before. Does he go back to the way he hit last year? Or does he hit a respectable 250 to 280? Not sure I want to put all my eggs in one basket.
Tier two is cv and blake. Both very young. One has a rep as a great defensive player and a so so bat yet to be determined. One is a great athlete and good hitter but developing defensive skills. Young quality catchers are hard to find Why would you trade either one right now before they have had a full opportunity to develop? Its a long season, both could get plenty of playing time with blake for sure, sharing time at dh.
Tier 3 is holaday and hanigan. Neither will be a full time regular and why would you keep them past the time when the decision is made on the first three.
A decision to trade a catcher is 1 to 2 years away.
Right now looking at the roster I am not sure we NEED to trade anyone. UNLESS we get blown away with a deal.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 24, 2016 0:56:52 GMT -5
ERod's a little inconsistent, but that's expected from someone so young. But when he's on, he's pretty dominating. He looks like a guy who could be an ace in a couple years. And, yeah, next year's rotation is pretty good. And there's no one in that rotation signed for less than two more years ... Price (opt-out): 2018 Pomeranz (FA eligible): 2018 Porcello (contract expires): 2019 Wright (FA eligible): 2021 Rodriguez (FA eligible): 2022 That's pretty solid. I think the sox will work out a deal with Chicago for Quintana this offseason.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 24, 2016 1:11:51 GMT -5
I think Wright's earned a fixed rotation spot, probably 4 next year (I see L-R-L-R-L with E-Rod having more upside and a solid second half). But I agree that, looking at his stats in any depth (especially his xFIP, but also K-BB, exit velo, etc.) it's probably a mistake to expect any consistent presence of first-half Wright. He'll probably settle in as a high-3/low-4 ERA guy who has records roughly reflective of the team record (hopefully .550-.600 for the next several years) and serves as a high-quality 4 by putting up #3 lines. That's plenty good if Price has a little luck in the future, Porcello's emergence is real, and Rodriguez takes the step forward a lot of us expect, and becomes a 1a-2 performer in the #3 slot. I don't see Pomeranz continuing to be as bad as he has been since his acquisition (and he did have a very nice stretch, sandwiched by awfulness). That makes for an excellent rotation, particularly if Clay is who has been the past month. He may actually build real trade value. For me, Rodriguez as the biggest question is the biggest key. If he puts it all together, he very easily could have the year Porcello is having. Despite the time off, he looks to be evolving before our eyes. It seems that most all think that the sox pick up clay's option. Then trade over the winter,during spring training or before july deadline. Picking up the option I think is a given. I think the sox for next season have 8 potential starting pitchers. They fall into 3 tiers. Tier one is price and porcello. Rock solid given. Tier two is drew, erod, and wright. Each one is considered questionable to me. erod is young and developing. Not very consistent YET. Looks like a potential ace, but when? Drew does he develop and consistently go back to the pitcher he was with the padres or does he continue to be mediocre like he has been with the sox. Not to say he hasn't had some very good games. Wright, how does he perform next spring after the injury? He certainly will help the rotation big time if he is close to where he was in the first half of the season. Eat up innings and be quite a change of pace to the rest of the starters. None of the three really proven yet. Tier three is clay, owens and Johnson. Clay is clay, but he has proven streaks where he can be dominating. If owens can throw strikes and spot his fastball to make his curve be effective then he could be an option. The throwing strikes is a BIG question mark. Johnson while not overpowering has shown that he can get big league hitters out. But a small sample. Does he continue to make progress from his personal issues? Interesting puzzle. With injuries and rainouts you definitely need a 6th starter. Kopech and groome are at least 2 yrs away. I think this is an excellent problem to have. But, I am not so sure the sox get rid of clay until/if tier 2 straightens itself out and whether the other 2 tier 3 pitchers make or break it. Even though he is the most marketable I am not so sure I would get rid of clay next year. Of course depends on what you get back in a trade. I highly doubt they trade him over the winter. They'll most likely wait until next deadline (or at least late June), and if their five are healthy and pitching well, and one of Owens/Johnson/Elias looks like a viable 6, I think they'll trade Clay. But they can afford the $13M, and he's a terrific safety option for a #6. If Kopech somehow takes a huge leap forward and makes AAA by June, I could see Clay being traded as well. BUT, I think the Sox will keep him unless he brings back real value, otherwise he's worth more as insurance. He also could be QO'd by the Sox, and bring a draft pick (or get another 1-year deal at what would be a reasonable price for them for a guy with 1a upside).
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Post by ryan24 on Sept 24, 2016 4:22:09 GMT -5
It seems that most all think that the sox pick up clay's option. Then trade over the winter,during spring training or before july deadline. Picking up the option I think is a given. I think the sox for next season have 8 potential starting pitchers. They fall into 3 tiers. Tier one is price and porcello. Rock solid given. Tier two is drew, erod, and wright. Each one is considered questionable to me. erod is young and developing. Not very consistent YET. Looks like a potential ace, but when? Drew does he develop and consistently go back to the pitcher he was with the padres or does he continue to be mediocre like he has been with the sox. Not to say he hasn't had some very good games. Wright, how does he perform next spring after the injury? He certainly will help the rotation big time if he is close to where he was in the first half of the season. Eat up innings and be quite a change of pace to the rest of the starters. None of the three really proven yet. Tier three is clay, owens and Johnson. Clay is clay, but he has proven streaks where he can be dominating. If owens can throw strikes and spot his fastball to make his curve be effective then he could be an option. The throwing strikes is a BIG question mark. Johnson while not overpowering has shown that he can get big league hitters out. But a small sample. Does he continue to make progress from his personal issues? Interesting puzzle. With injuries and rainouts you definitely need a 6th starter. Kopech and groome are at least 2 yrs away. I think this is an excellent problem to have. But, I am not so sure the sox get rid of clay until/if tier 2 straightens itself out and whether the other 2 tier 3 pitchers make or break it. Even though he is the most marketable I am not so sure I would get rid of clay next year. Of course depends on what you get back in a trade. I highly doubt they trade him over the winter. They'll most likely wait until next deadline (or at least late June), and if their five are healthy and pitching well, and one of Owens/Johnson/Elias looks like a viable 6, I think they'll trade Clay. But they can afford the $13M, and he's a terrific safety option for a #6. If Kopech somehow takes a huge leap forward and makes AAA by June, I could see Clay being traded as well. BUT, I think the Sox will keep him unless he brings back real value, otherwise he's worth more as insurance. He also could be QO'd by the Sox, and bring a draft pick (or get another 1-year deal at what would be a reasonable price for them for a guy with 1a upside). That's a good point forgot about the QO aspect.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 24, 2016 9:34:02 GMT -5
I just want to remind folks that E-Rod has a cutter and a sinker, neither of which he is using since his recall. They have both looked like good pitches. That he can be as dominant as he has often been with just 3 pitches is actually quite eye-opening. I think he's an ace within two years, and maybe next year. In the interviews that Eno Sarris has done with MLB pitchers (I've mostly heard him talk about this on podcasts, so it's hard to provide a specific link), one thing that's come up that many pitchers struggle to maintain a cutter/slider combo as two distinct pitches, and that it's ultimately best for them to settle on the one best version of that type of pitch. "He had a high-80s cutter and a low 80s slider and now he just throws a mid 80s cut/slide thing and he's better for it" or something like that is a common story. There's a similar thing with the four-seam/sinker combo, which also has to do with arm slot. Throwing more over the top will give more rise on the four seamer whereas dropping down will give more lateral movement on the sinker (lateral movement being more closely correlated to ground ball rate than vertical movement), the point being that most pitchers are suited to throwing one or the other instead of both. There's also the whole "tunneling" thing; I'm not sure how relevant it is to Rodriguez's pitch selection, but it's a thing and people can read about a familiar example of it here: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jon-lester-tunneling-to-success/All of this is to say that if Eddy has more pitches than he's using, it's probably because the three that he's chosen are the most effective mix for him, not some sort of " I'm not left handed either" situation. Lester, Kershaw and Bumgarner are (or are very close to) three pitch guys, I don't think those guys are holding themselves back by not throwing the other pitches that I'm sure they have. I wouldn't project him to become significantly better just because he's able to throw pitches other than what he's currently using in games, at least not without some in-depth analysis of how those pitches might actually play off his four-seam/slider/change combo.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 25, 2016 0:58:37 GMT -5
I just want to remind folks that E-Rod has a cutter and a sinker, neither of which he is using since his recall. They have both looked like good pitches. That he can be as dominant as he has often been with just 3 pitches is actually quite eye-opening. I think he's an ace within two years, and maybe next year. In the interviews that Eno Sarris has done with MLB pitchers (I've mostly heard him talk about this on podcasts, so it's hard to provide a specific link), one thing that's come up that many pitchers struggle to maintain a cutter/slider combo as two distinct pitches, and that it's ultimately best for them to settle on the one best version of that type of pitch. "He had a high-80s cutter and a low 80s slider and now he just throws a mid 80s cut/slide thing and he's better for it" or something like that is a common story. There's a similar thing with the four-seam/sinker combo, which also has to do with arm slot. Throwing more over the top will give more rise on the four seamer whereas dropping down will give more lateral movement on the sinker (lateral movement being more closely correlated to ground ball rate than vertical movement), the point being that most pitchers are suited to throwing one or the other instead of both. There's also the whole "tunneling" thing; I'm not sure how relevant it is to Rodriguez's pitch selection, but it's a thing and people can read about a familiar example of it here: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jon-lester-tunneling-to-success/All of this is to say that if Eddy has more pitches than he's using, it's probably because the three that he's chosen are the most effective mix for him, not some sort of " I'm not left handed either" situation. Lester, Kershaw and Bumgarner are (or are very close to) three pitch guys, I don't think those guys are holding themselves back by not throwing the other pitches that I'm sure they have. I wouldn't project him to become significantly better just because he's able to throw pitches other than what he's currently using in games, at least not without some in-depth analysis of how those pitches might actually play off his four-seam/slider/change combo. It's true that not very many pitchers throw both the slider and the cutter. However, E-Rod's slider is unusual; it breaks straight down (and his cutter still has armside run, just a lot less than his FB). So it may be easier for him to separate them. I've looked at and analyzed a lot of pitch-fx data at the raw level, and in my experience there are more guys who throw both a 4-seamer and 2-seamer than guys who throw only one. You don't have to look further than Porcello to find a guy who makes devastating use of the distinction between them. Lester has always been a five-pitch pitcher. He has a beautiful separation between his four- and two-seamers, which in fact breaks precisely opposite his cutter. He is currently throwing his change 0 to 10 times a game, but there have been periods in his career where he threw it much more often. Bumgarner has a change that the throws about three times a game on average; I think that having a fourth pitch for show very likely has value. Kershaw used to be the same way, but has pretty much junked the change entirely and is now indeed a three-pitch pitcher. He is, however, Kershaw. The one time I did a thorough study of the relationship between pitch repertoire size and effectiveness, five years ago, there were two very interesting results. First, there were no aces (top 15 pitchers in MLB) that didn't have a fourth pitch, and most had five. (Hence the Kershaw qualification). Second, there were very few below-average guys with three-pitch repertoires, which showed a selection bias against them. Even after adjusting for that bias, it was pretty clear that larger repertoires made you a better pitcher, although obviously it's very secondary to how good your pitches are. The two-seamer and change have the same spin axis and should in theory be harder to tell apart than a four-seamer and change. I've never tested that with data, though, because even Brooks doesn't do a good job of separating out the two varieties (which is why I used to do it a lot myself). I'd have to look at every pitcher's data to spot the guys like Lester for whom there is no ambiguity or overlap between them. I agree with you, they're using a 3-pitch repertoire with E-Rod right now because it's working so well. Why fix what isn't broken? But at some point he'll become perfectly comfortable with all three pitches, and that's probably about the same time that he starts facing a lot of guys he's already faced 15 or 20 times, and at that point adding another pitch or two is very likely to help.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 30, 2016 10:40:24 GMT -5
Speaking of Eno Sarris podcasts, he and Paul Sporer talk about him on the most recent The Sleeper and the Bust episode. Technically a fantasy podcast but I always enjoy their analysis regardless of the fantasy aspect. www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-394-playing-hurt-hidden-second-halves/Eduardo talk starts at about 42:10. Good stuff; short version is he's improved his slider a bunch partly due to health and partly due to tinkering with it (again, possible that the slider/cutter thing is just him working on one pitch), plus apparently he's a bit of an exit velocity wizard.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 1, 2016 15:30:05 GMT -5
Clay is who he is at this point. Dominating when right. Frustrating when not. I don't see why his option isn't picked up. Good for him and good for Boston to have 6 starting options going into next year (I think Clay will be traded FWIW). I think the best way to play it, is keep him on the roster for at least the beginning of the season. I'd start the season with him in the rotation and Wright as the swing man. Should at least one of Owens or Johnson appear to be ready to make the next step, then you can trade Clay. Wright slides into the rotation and Johnson and/or Owens provide injury depth.
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Post by adamoraz on Oct 2, 2016 0:08:41 GMT -5
Only one problem with this. When was the last time DDo made it through an entire offseason without trading a starter?
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 2, 2016 5:27:32 GMT -5
Only one problem with this. When was the last time DDo made it through an entire offseason without trading a starter? Was the need ever this little non-existant?
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 2, 2016 11:13:27 GMT -5
Only one problem with this. When was the last time DDo made it through an entire offseason without trading a starter? Was the need ever this little non-existant? Indeed. After Brian Bannister went into the dugout, the Sox had the second best starting pitching in baseball (by a wide margin if you adjust for Farrell's slow hooks) despite getting almost nothing from Steven Wright.
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Post by adamoraz on Oct 2, 2016 15:39:15 GMT -5
I didn't say trade for a starting pitcher, I said when was the last off season he didn' trade away a starting pitcher. He's never been afraid to trade part of his rotation to fill other needs and I'm sure that won't change now. I highly doubt the Sox will make it to opening day with 6 starters.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 3, 2016 9:20:45 GMT -5
I didn't say trade for a starting pitcher, I said when was the last off season he didn' trade away a starting pitcher. He's never been afraid to trade part of his rotation to fill other needs and I'm sure that won't change now. I highly doubt the Sox will make it to opening day with 6 starters. The 2012-13 offseason. Of course, that 2013 team was one that only used 6 starters, with only 6 starts going to (old friend) Jose Alvarez, so it's tough to gauge what kind of depth they had, although they did use Drew Smyly as one of their key relievers. (Also, my god if that team had only had a half-competent bullpen... yikes. My goodness were they loaded.)
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Post by adamoraz on Oct 3, 2016 23:00:37 GMT -5
(Also, my god if that team had only had a half-competent bullpen... yikes. My goodness were they loaded.) Absolutely. It seems like the bullpen was always the Achilles heal of those Tigers teams. Probably one of the reasons Dombrowski was so willing to give up so much for Kimbrel.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 3, 2016 23:35:49 GMT -5
ERod's a little inconsistent, but that's expected from someone so young. But when he's on, he's pretty dominating. He looks like a guy who could be an ace in a couple years. And, yeah, next year's rotation is pretty good. And there's no one in that rotation signed for less than two more years ... Price (opt-out): 2018 Pomeranz (FA eligible): 2018 Porcello (contract expires): 2019 Wright (FA eligible): 2021 Rodriguez (FA eligible): 2022 That's pretty solid. I think the sox will work out a deal with Chicago for Quintana this offseason. I actually believe Eddy Rodriguez will be a better pitcher, maybe as soon as next season.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 4, 2016 0:00:50 GMT -5
... I've looked at and analyzed a lot of pitch-fx data at the raw level, and in my experience there are more guys who throw both a 4-seamer and 2-seamer than guys who throw only one. You don't have to look further than Porcello to find a guy who makes devastating use of the distinction between them. ... That has been the big change over the last two years. I've been very impressed with the makeover. He labored through 2015, getting the location for the high fastball fine-tuned. This season, he figured out exactly where to throw it to make it too tempting to resist, and just a little too high to hit solidly, with a lot of swings and misses. No surprise that the last two years have seen his K/9 jump up over 7.5 which, for a pitcher who has relied primarily on a sinker, makes him devastating as you say. Just a great year for the guy, the control, the way he eats innings, the dominance he can achieve when he's locked in... He may not be an ace, whatever that is, but he's really been exceptional, a great pleasure to watch pitch.
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