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Post by charliezink16 on Sept 17, 2014 14:23:49 GMT -5
Wasn't sure where to put this, so mods feel free to move it elsewhere.
Jared Carrabis ?@jared_Carrabis 11m According to @pgammo, the Red Sox and Marlins are "very interested" in signing Pablo Sandoval this offseason.
Outside of 2 SP slots, 3B is the biggest questions mark going into the offseason. With a RH heavy lineup, and potential starting third basemen down the road in Middlebrooks, Cecchini, and Coyle, the ideal move would be to sign a LH 3B to a 1 year deal. Of course I'm referencing Chase Headley who would be a great sign at, say, 1/$15.
Ideally, Boston gets Headley on a 1 year deal, making Holt the super-UTIL man, and starting WMB & Cecchini in AAA in hopes that one of them breaks through and seizes the job. Of course this is all hypothetical as any of them could be dealt this offseason, but that's where my vote is. No reason to trade WMB as his trade value is at an all time low, and the chances of him pulling a Chris Davis (though unlikely) far outweigh the value he'd produce in a trade. I really like Pablo Sandoval, and see him as a fan favorite, but his numbers are (slightly) down this year, and it'd probably take 5/100 to lock him up. On the other hand, he just turned 28 and still looks to be a very valuable piece for the next few seasons. The only other viable 3B option on the free agent market is Aramis Ramirez, but he's 37, has a $14mil mutual option, and would make our lineup that much more RH heavy. Thoughts?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 17, 2014 15:07:46 GMT -5
Go get Sandoval if it costs 5/100. I have no faith in either Checchini or Middlebrooks. Headley is terrible.
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Post by charliezink16 on Sept 17, 2014 15:23:02 GMT -5
Go get Sandoval if it costs 5/100. I have no faith in either Checchini or Middlebrooks. Headley is terrible. Gold glove fielder who posted a 7.2 WAR just two years ago (including 33 HR's as a Padre), and is posting a 3.3 WAR in this years "down year", partially fueled by a .294 BABIP (.330 career BABIP). Care to elaborate on how adding a LH bat like Headley for one year is terrible? I assume you laughed off the Adrian Beltre 2010 signing after his 2.4 WAR 2009 campaign.
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 17, 2014 15:24:48 GMT -5
I like the Sandoval idea better than any other outside option. Headley is in the decline stage of his career and he really isn't that good, anyway. I don't see him as much of an improvement over what the Sox have now, and maybe not any.
Cecchini still is intriguing. He had a hard time adjusting to triple-A ball, but he did. I think he may be the best internal option in the short term, but he may not be ready next season.
Holt had a great run, but he really tailed off the last several weeks. So, it is hard to tell whether it was just a bad streak or that the pitchers figured him out, and he didn't adjust to that. In any case, I wouldn't pencil him in to any starting position.
I am sorry about Middlebrooks. He worked hard to develop himself in the minors, and he improved every year. But he isn't the same player he was before his injury last year.
And I am not terribly concerned about a righthand heavy lineup. Most decent righthand hitters hit righthand pitchers pretty well. There isn't the drop off in performance in general like there is with lefthand hitters hitting lefthand pitchers.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 17, 2014 15:31:06 GMT -5
Important topic as this is the most pressing need for our offense. I agree with quite a bit that CharlieZink had to say and I'm on the fence, but I'd probably lean towards a signing of Panda assuming the bidding doesn't get out of control. If a RH heavy lineup is of concern, then its important to note that Sandoval is the much better hitter from the left side than Headley. Headley did show a split during his peak years, but as his offense has declined in the past two years, so too have his splits. He's pretty much been slightly subpar from both sides of the plate. Sandoval on the other hand has put up wRCs of 144, 123, and 123 as a LH hitter for the past three seasons. Also, just one comment, Sandoval's offense hasn't really declined this year and in fact, his past three seasons look remarkably consistent.
There's definitely a part of me that wants Middlebrooks or Cecchini to take the job, but I'm just not sure how likely it is that one settles in as a Role 6 player like Sandoval. You certainly wouldn't go into next year with Middlebrooks and Cecchini fighting for the position.....not after this year at least.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 17, 2014 15:53:55 GMT -5
Go get Sandoval if it costs 5/100. I have no faith in either Checchini or Middlebrooks. Headley is terrible. Gold glove fielder who posted a 7.2 WAR just two years ago (including 33 HR's as a Padre), and is posting a 3.3 WAR in this years "down year", partially fueled by a .294 BABIP (.330 career BABIP). Care to elaborate on how adding a LH bat like Headley for one year is terrible? I assume you laughed off the Adrian Beltre 2010 signing after his 2.4 WAR 2009 campaign. WAR of 1.3 this season with both SD and NYY. He has an OPS of .715 with NYY which is up from his .651 OPS with the Padres. Last year his WAR was 3.8. Yes, the year before THAT season he had a WAR of 7.2, but before that it was 2.8. He had an outlier year and is 30 years old. I think realistic optimism is that he reverts to a 2-3 WAR player which is weighted more heavily on his glove side. I'd rather just get Sandoval who is more likely to put up a better WAR and offers more offensively as this was this teams biggest struggle this year. It's not like the Sox are hurting for cash either, they've been under the salary cap for sometime. Heck, just unloading Victorino should off-set any spending.
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Post by jmei on Sept 17, 2014 16:10:37 GMT -5
After looking into it, I've reversed my earlier sentiments. Give me Headley over Sandoval any day. Chase Headley is 30, and while he's technically on the downslope of his career, he's not especially old for a free agent. He is also certainly still a very good player, even if the 2012 power doesn't come back (which it probably won't). A mix of Steamer/ZiPS projections sees him as a .256/.339/.414 hitter (110 wRC+) going forward, which is excellent for a third baseman (and well beyond what I'd project for any of the Red Sox internal options, including Holt), and he also adds above-average fielding into the mix. Both ZiPS and Steamer see him as something like a three or four win player next year, and even though that's perhaps tilted towards fielding value, a run saved is the same as a run scored. I see Headley's situation as akin to Shane Victorino circa 2012-- a really good player who hits free agency coming off a downish year and is easy to write off if you just look at this year's OPS. But Headley has a track record of success, is an excellent fielder, and has played in offense-suppressing environments (this year's brief interlude in Yankee Stadium aside), and he's similarly a prime bounce-back candidate. I don't think he's going to sign a pillow contract (someone's going to look past 2014 and offer him enough long-term security to make it worth taking the best deal he can get now), but if you can get him for 3/$45m or 4/$56 or so, I'd absolutely do it. This is particularly true because he won't cost a draft pick, and a high second-rounder is still a pretty valuable asset that you'd like to keep if possible. I'm not even sure Sandoval is actually better than Headley, by the way. Using a simple 3-2-1 weighting (with 2014 weighed 3x, 2013 weighed 2x, and 2012 weighed 1x), he's actually a fair bit worse than Headley, both by fWAR (PS: 3.0; CH: 4.0) and bWAR (PS: 3.2; CH: 3.6). But because Sandoval is coming off the better offensive platform season (and is generally a more popular player, due to SF's success and his colorful nickname), Sandoval's going to cost a lot more in free agency (that includes a draft pick). I'm also concerned that Sandoval's success comes despite terrifyingly Josh Hamilton-esque swing rates ( the highest swing rate in the league by a pretty wide margin, the highest chase rate in the league by a similarly wide margin). He's still been a good offensive player because he has a knack for getting the bat on the ball, especially on pitches outside the zone ( 15th highest O-contact in the league), but that's a skill that typically declines significantly as a hitter gets older and as he loses bat speed. That's not to mention his regular struggles with his weight, which are only going to get worse as he gets older and his metabolism slows down. He might be two years younger, but between the above and his injury issues (this season will be his first 600+ PA year since 2010), I don't think he's actually a less risky long-term free agent signing (though Headley has some injury issues of his own), especially since he'll get a longer contract.
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Post by jmei on Sept 17, 2014 16:16:10 GMT -5
It's not like the Sox are hurting for cash either, they've been under the salary cap for sometime. Heck, just unloading Victorino should off-set any spending. This is a sentiment I've seen a lot (and I'm certainly guilty of spreading it), but they have less to spend than you might think. The estimates I've seen give them somewhere around $60m to spend, but that's not actually that much when you think about it. Take away $25m-ish to add a top-end starter and $20m-ish to add two front-end bullpen arms, and there's not that much left to spend on a 3B (that's not even taking into account the potential need to add a second starting pitcher). I'm not sure they can find anyone to take all of Victorino's contract, so I'm not sure there's going to be any savings there, either.
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Post by redsox1534 on Sept 17, 2014 17:26:03 GMT -5
I love the idea of getting Headly on a cheap one year deal. He is a LH hitter and I dont need to tell you we need one of those. I dont see this roster changing much more then it is offensivly other then us adding a 3B and possibly making a move were we add another OF, say in a big deal for a young kid. I think main focus is SP.
Sandoval is a big time get but for big time money. Like him more then some but he scares me with his body, and inconsistent play. 5 years 65 mill sure. Id gamble on him for that prie range. But I dont feel the need to and dont see it as a fit for us. We are more inclined to make a trade for a young 3B like Kris Bryant or Javier Baez or sign a Chase Headly type player. Better bet for us.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 17, 2014 17:28:29 GMT -5
Can we trade for Adrian Beltre? He's only got 2 years left. 2015 at 18m with an AAV of 16m. Has a 2016 option for 16m that can be voided by the team if he doesn't have 1200 PA's in 14 and 15. I'd feel much more comfortable paying him for two, as opposed to Tubby for 5. Oh, he's a better player too. Texas needs a boatload of pitching and has Gallo waiting in the wings. I don't care that he bats right-handed. He's an excellent ballplayer.
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Post by jmei on Sept 17, 2014 17:35:00 GMT -5
FYI, both Headley and Sandoval are switch-hitters.
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Post by Don Caballero on Sept 17, 2014 18:33:56 GMT -5
I think it boils down to risk. Sandoval is riskier than Headley, but also has a higher upside (Detroit still isn't over him). Headley would make more sense.
Perfect world scenario: trade for Kyle Seager. I know I have a higher chance at Summer Glau than that has of happening, though.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 17, 2014 19:06:23 GMT -5
I think it boils down to risk. Sandoval is riskier than Headley, but also has a higher upside (Detroit still isn't over him). Headley would make more sense. Perfect world scenario: trade for Kyle Seager. I know I have a higher chance at Summer Glau than that has of happening, though. Fantasy. Seattle is short enough of bats as it is and isn't going to move one of the 3 reliable ones on it's roster. Sandoval? Give him a contract of any length and the team that makes the mistake ends up with BJ Upton, or go back many years.. Candy Maldonado Version 2.. A guy waiting to cash in, then sit on his wallet and chuck it all in. There should be a flashing sign on Sandoval.. "STAY AWAY", you know the one.. The same one the Boston FO missed with Carl Crawford? Hey.. All for trying to get back Beltre from Arlington. They have some SP are unsure about at the beginning of 2015.. Send them one of Ranaudo, Webster and Give em Middlebrooks.. Possibly another lower guy on the 40 man bubble.. Couch perhaps? Celestino?
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Post by Guidas on Sept 17, 2014 19:16:00 GMT -5
Does anyone here honestly believe Headly will only get a 1 year deal in this market? Cause I sure don't.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Sept 17, 2014 19:35:14 GMT -5
Does anyone here honestly believe Headly will only get a 1 year deal in this market? Cause I sure don't. I think it makes sense for him to sign a lets say 1/10 so he can maybe have a bigger year and cash in on that. I love Sandoval but I wonder what he'd do with a ton of money in the bank.
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Post by burythehammer on Sept 17, 2014 19:39:17 GMT -5
I can't describe how much I would rather sign Headley for one year or even two than Sandoval for five. The idea that Headley is in "decline" so instead we give a longterm deal to a guy who makes Prince Fielder look svelte is funny though.
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Post by jmei on Sept 17, 2014 19:49:21 GMT -5
I mentioned this above, but I see little chance that Headley signs a one-year deal. Someone's going to at least give him something like what Victorino got (3/$39m), and it almost certainly makes sense to take that over something like 1/$15m. Beltre's one year deal was coming off a season that was much worse offensively on a league- and park-adjusted basis (81 wRC+ for Adrian, 95 wRC+ so far for Chase), while Drew was actually terrible both offensively and defensively (sub-replacement-level) the year before he took his pillow contract.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 17, 2014 20:26:51 GMT -5
And myself? I find the idea of giving Headley 15m over 1y as an incentive to take a 1y over any multi year deal he could possibly find on the open market equally wretched.
Someone will dig around for some of those obscure stats I rail about somewhere.. There always is to make a point about something.. If you dig hard enough. Probably some out there to make Darwin Barney a Louisville Silver slugger winner even.
Whether or not Headley is "just" 31YO. He has only had the 1 productive season. The other 5 have been average to below and most alarmingly, has been sliding the last 2.
3b market will be thin. Every one has bad warts, Sandoval, probably Ramirez and Headley. Boston at least has options in Coyle and Cecchini, Holt. The team has other needs to address rather than throwing away money on another failure at 3b no better than what the team's fans has been forced to watch all of 2014.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 17, 2014 21:15:12 GMT -5
My gut feeling is that the Sox will come away with Sandoval and they can certainly use somebody from the left side (yes, I know he's a switch hitter) that can fit in the middle of the order.
The Sox have the money to spend. The other bigger market teams, LA Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, Mariners really don't need 3b. I'm assuming LA Dodgers would save 3b for a re-signed Hanley Ramirez because they must know he won't remain at SS for long.
So that leaves the Sox as a good candidate to spend the money.
Would I really want them to?
I would lean against it. In addition to giving up a draft pick, you're banking on a guy with weight issues who could play himself out of 3b within a year or two and might not have the bat as he ages to carry off the DH spot.
At five years it's not the worst signing, but I'm not really comfortable with it.
I don't think Headley gets less than 2 guaranteed years elsewhere and I wouldn't think that should be a deterrent for the Sox to go get him as his contract would be tradeable if need be.
I think it comes down to this. What do the Sox think the chances are that by some point in 2015 or 2016 that one of WMB, Cecchini, or Coyle will seize the 3b job?
I have an admitted soft spot for Cecchini. I don't believe in WMB and I would rather somebody else take a chance on him. Coyle won't come along fast enough for 2015 and it's debateable if he gets better. He might be better trade bait.
I think Cecchini was starting to put it together in the last month. He was hitting for some power and he was back to hitting and getting on base. I have a gut feeling that if given the chance he'll be hitting .300 by June with some pop in his bat and be on the verge of a callup. And I think he has a shot at being a good player with a .360 OBP and about 12 - 15 homers per year. Not a superstar, but a very useful player.
Getting Headley doesn't block that. Getting Sandoval most likely does. The question is: is there somebody that would be getting blocked? And would it matter? Depends on what you think of WMB, Cecchini, or Coyle.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Sept 17, 2014 21:18:54 GMT -5
My options for third in order of preference....
1. Trade for Wright.(if the should've looks ok) 2. Move Petey. 3. Survive till June with Holt and make a judgement in house then between Holt, and A Cecchini/Middlebrooks platoon (if they have performed well enough at Aaa. 4. Sandoval 5 anyone else (Ramirez on a one year overpay? ) but Nth. headley. I just don't like him... I find the d overrated and the power seems to be completely gone
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 17, 2014 22:25:39 GMT -5
Somebody left off of every list here as a possible 1y guy is Jed Lowrie. He had a healthy last 2 seasons, but his bat slipped some in 2014. He played 3b fairly well while in Boston, not great, but was capable of making the throws across the diamond. I'd rather see him signed, whether or not he's prone to injuries than any of those other 3 whose names have been thrown about, even if it took 2-3y deal. Lowrie can be used at every IF position and gives good power.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 17, 2014 22:43:03 GMT -5
I am not a fan of sandavol or Headley or wright.
In my book we go after the Colorado 3rd baseman. Sending them pitchers and middlebrooks and checchini if need be.
Colorado needs help. Yes they have two aces on the way in he minors, but our pitchers can plug the gap until those guys are ready.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 18, 2014 9:23:07 GMT -5
I am not a fan of sandavol or Headley or wright. In my book we go after the Colorado 3rd baseman. Sending them pitchers and middlebrooks and checchini if need be. Colorado needs help. Yes they have two aces on the way in he minors, but our pitchers can plug the gap until those guys are ready. We've been over this before. They're probably as willing to trade Arenado as we are to trade Bogaerts or Betts (if he weren't blocked).
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Post by caseytins on Sept 18, 2014 10:19:43 GMT -5
I would shy away from Sandoval. Headley is a decent option at two years, but I'm not sure that will do it. While the team's offense has been horrid this season, I would rather spend money on a front line starter or two (I believe that the offense will be better next year as the young players get more AB's, players get healthy, etc).
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 18, 2014 11:45:04 GMT -5
Aramis Ramirez might not get a QO. If he doesn't id give him a one or two year deal. His away split is good and he'd be less expensive than Headley.
I wouldn't go for Sandoval.
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