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Post by awall on Sept 18, 2014 12:27:21 GMT -5
Are there any guys other than Wright who might be realistic trade options?
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Post by jmei on Sept 18, 2014 13:01:02 GMT -5
Are there any guys other than Wright who might be realistic trade options? Luis Valbuena of the Cubs might be worth looking into. He's coming off a couple solid seasons (.248/.332/.440 this year, .218/.331/.378 last year) and has two years of team control left (2015 and 2016), but will likely be edged out by the next wave of Cubs prospects. A mixed Steamer/ZiPS projection has him at .242/.328/.400 (103 wRC+) with averagish defense at third going forward, which is something like a two to two-and-a-half win player. He'd be a stopgap guy (he'll be 29 next year), but shouldn't be too expensive either in trade cost (maybe some of Boston's upper-level starting pitching depth gets it done?) or salary (got $1.7m last year, maybe gets $4-5m this year). Bonus: he hits left-handed and also has experience at 2B On the other hand, he was pretty terrible in the first half of his career, as his line entering 2014 was a terrible .222/.302/.352 (78 wRC+), and this would be buying high on a pretty unheralded guy with just one good year under his belt. Still, he's an option. These guys might be available, but probably aren't: -Trevor Plouffe, Twins (unlikely to be traded, since he has three arb years left) -Juan Uribe, Dodgers (maybe available if the Dodgers re-sign Hanley to be their 3B) -Adrian Beltre, Rangers (discussed above-- maybe available if the Rangers sell, but I'm inclined to believe that they think this year was an injury-driven one-year decline and will keep him) -Chris Johnson, Braves (he's probably available, but he sucks and is expensive)
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 18, 2014 15:28:25 GMT -5
Somebody will bring in Uggla to camp also have to believe also JMEI. Thinking that he can find something in his bat again. I was always a fan of his at Miami, but always thought he needed to be at 3b, where his arm would *probably* be barely adequate and he range wouldn't be glaringly shown up, like it has been at 2b his entire career.
As can tell.. I'd like to see Uggs go play Winter Ball and focus on 3b, then go to ST with some team and wouldn't mind Boston giving him a minor league deal, especially with the motley crew being available and what they currently have.
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Post by brendan98 on Sept 18, 2014 15:32:20 GMT -5
Not sure if anyone has posed the following yet (and I apologize if so), but I wonder how Pedroia would handle 3B?
Upside: It would open up a spot for Mookie at 2B, Dustin might stay healthier at 3B, and the logjam in the OF would be a little more manageable.
Downside: There would be less playing time for Holt, and likely no playing side for WMB (though that might not be so bad).
Also, I love the idea of bringing back Beltre, but doubt he is cheap (prospect wise), the contract is a little pricey but I think doable, but would Texas trade him for a package of WMB and a pitcher like Workman/Ranaudo/Webster, I am thinking not.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 18, 2014 15:45:39 GMT -5
Not sure if anyone has posed the following yet (and I apologize if so), but I wonder how Pedroia would handle 3B? Upside: It would open up a spot for Mookie at 2B, Dustin might stay healthier at 3B, and the logjam in the OF would be a little more manageable. Downside: There would be less playing time for Holt, and likely no playing side for WMB (though that might not be so bad). Also, I love the idea of bringing back Beltre, but doubt he is cheap (prospect wise), the contract is a little pricey but I think doable, but would Texas trade him for a package of WMB and a pitcher like Workman/Ranaudo/Webster, I am thinking not. Not sure why you'd take a gold glove caliber 2b in Pedroia and move him to 3b. You'd be robbing Pedroia of a lot of his value. I'd rather see the Sox try Betts at 3b before they'd ever do something that drastic or Betts at SS and Bogaerts at 3b. I'd rather see Cecchini get a shot at 3b if he plays well in Pawtucket next season. I'd rather see the Sox try a free agent or make a deal. Basically just about anything before moving Pedroia off of 2b.
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Post by juniorp90 on Sept 18, 2014 15:50:16 GMT -5
I think that Sandoval would be a more acceptable option, adapting to the needs of the team now and in the future.
I see it like this: he can play 3B next year. It is easy to move when both 1B Mike Napoli leave the team, or DH if the team decides not to exercise the option for the 2016 Big Papi.
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Post by Coreno on Sept 18, 2014 15:57:15 GMT -5
In a similar vein to trying Uggla at third, do you think the Phillies would be willing to part with Utley, entering his mid-late 30's so he will be in decline but has returned to health and was an all-star this year, despite having worse numbers than last year. He always seemed to me to be a guy that could transition to 3rd, might be a bit expensive but for a couple of years he might not be a terrible fit.
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Post by charliezink16 on Sept 18, 2014 16:10:13 GMT -5
Are there any guys other than Wright who might be realistic trade options? Luis Valbuena of the Cubs might be worth looking into. He's coming off a couple solid seasons (.248/.332/.440 this year, .218/.331/.378 last year) and has two years of team control left (2015 and 2016), but will likely be edged out by the next wave of Cubs prospects. A mixed Steamer/ZiPS projection has him at .242/.328/.400 (103 wRC+) with averagish defense at third going forward, which is something like a two to two-and-a-half win player. He'd be a stopgap guy (he'll be 29 next year), but shouldn't be too expensive either in trade cost (maybe some of Boston's upper-level starting pitching depth gets it done?) or salary (got $1.7m last year, maybe gets $4-5m this year). Bonus: he hits left-handed and also has experience at 2B On the other hand, he was pretty terrible in the first half of his career, as his line entering 2014 was a terrible .222/.302/.352 (78 wRC+), and this would be buying high on a pretty unheralded guy with just one good year under his belt. Still, he's an option. These guys might be available, but probably aren't: -Trevor Plouffe, Twins (unlikely to be traded, since he has three arb years left) -Juan Uribe, Dodgers (maybe available if the Dodgers re-sign Hanley to be their 3B) -Adrian Beltre, Rangers (discussed above-- maybe available if the Rangers sell, but I'm inclined to believe that they think this year was an injury-driven one-year decline and will keep him) -Chris Johnson, Braves (he's probably available, but he sucks and is expensive) Not a bad list. I'm inclined to believe that both Plouffe and Beltre won't be available via trade this offseason. Chris Johnson is a) supposedly a massive d'bag, and b) terrible. 0.15 BB/K ratio to go along with a sub .300 OBP, no thanks. Uribe I wouldn't be opposed to at all. I'm about to completely contradict myself regarding what I said about Chris Johnson, but I would be all for buying low on Pedro Alvarez. It really depends on how much he is going to fetch in arbitration, but if it's anywhere over $5 million, cheap-ass Huntington may be looking to deal him. ADD: Middlebrooks for Alvarez straight up. Garbage for garbage #gitrdone
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Post by jmei on Sept 18, 2014 17:47:44 GMT -5
D'oh, how could I have left off Alvarez? He's probably the most likely of any of the above names to be moved this offseason (due to escalating salary and lack of playing time with Josh Harrison's emergence). He's got major power, but between the terrible defense (he's had major issues making throws to first base this season) and the strikeouts, not sure he's really an upgrade or would be worth the trade cost + salary. He is a buy-low guy, though, and was a three-win guy as recently as last year. He's also a lefty with opposite-field power ( peep his spray charts), and those are the guys who get a big Fenway bump. ADD: some more details on Alvarez: he's arb-eligible this offseason and is under team control through 2016. Because of Harrison's emergence and Alvarez's defensive struggles this year, there's been some talk of moving him to first base in 2015, but trading him would also seem like a possible option for Pittsburgh.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 18, 2014 18:18:46 GMT -5
Probably cause didn't want a few people to start complaining, some as recent as a couple of years ago that Boston should have signed him when they drafted him.
U guys are right tho. He could be a temporary fit and one we over looked, tho maybe just for 1 year if Boras manages ti get him 5-6m this year and he only puts up equal numbers again in 2015. I couldn't see the Sox paying him (estimating of course) 8-9m for what he just put up, along with lousy defense in 2016.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 18, 2014 18:35:40 GMT -5
You know...by my calculations Shea Hillenbrand is only 39 (born the same year as Big Papi). Just sayin'
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Post by moonstone2 on Sept 18, 2014 22:59:53 GMT -5
After looking into it, I've reversed my earlier sentiments. Give me Headley over Sandoval any day. Chase Headley is 30, and while he's technically on the downslope of his career, he's not especially old for a free agent. He is also certainly still a very good player, even if the 2012 power doesn't come back (which it probably won't). A mix of Steamer/ZiPS projections sees him as a .256/.339/.414 hitter (110 wRC+) going forward, which is excellent for a third baseman (and well beyond what I'd project for any of the Red Sox internal options, including Holt), and he also adds above-average fielding into the mix. Both ZiPS and Steamer see him as something like a three or four win player next year, and even though that's perhaps tilted towards fielding value, a run saved is the same as a run scored. I see Headley's situation as akin to Shane Victorino circa 2012-- a really good player who hits free agency coming off a downish year and is easy to write off if you just look at this year's OPS. But Headley has a track record of success, is an excellent fielder, and has played in offense-suppressing environments (this year's brief interlude in Yankee Stadium aside), and he's similarly a prime bounce-back candidate. I don't think he's going to sign a pillow contract (someone's going to look past 2014 and offer him enough long-term security to make it worth taking the best deal he can get now), but if you can get him for 3/$45m or 4/$56 or so, I'd absolutely do it. This is particularly true because he won't cost a draft pick, and a high second-rounder is still a pretty valuable asset that you'd like to keep if possible. I'm not even sure Sandoval is actually better than Headley, by the way. Using a simple 3-2-1 weighting (with 2014 weighed 3x, 2013 weighed 2x, and 2012 weighed 1x), he's actually a fair bit worse than Headley, both by fWAR (PS: 3.0; CH: 4.0) and bWAR (PS: 3.2; CH: 3.6). But because Sandoval is coming off the better offensive platform season (and is generally a more popular player, due to SF's success and his colorful nickname), Sandoval's going to cost a lot more in free agency (that includes a draft pick). I'm also concerned that Sandoval's success comes despite terrifyingly Josh Hamilton-esque swing rates ( the highest swing rate in the league by a pretty wide margin, the highest chase rate in the league by a similarly wide margin). He's still been a good offensive player because he has a knack for getting the bat on the ball, especially on pitches outside the zone ( 15th highest O-contact in the league), but that's a skill that typically declines significantly as a hitter gets older and as he loses bat speed. That's not to mention his regular struggles with his weight, which are only going to get worse as he gets older and his metabolism slows down. He might be two years younger, but between the above and his injury issues (this season will be his first 600+ PA year since 2010), I don't think he's actually a less risky long-term free agent signing (though Headley has some injury issues of his own), especially since he'll get a longer contract. Headley has a herniated disc in his back. Such an injury often requires surgery and the recovery time for that is about 9 months. Since he's a free agent I would assume that he's going to try to resolve the problem through physical therapy, but if he can't he'll need surgery and be out for 2015. I think that because of this problem, no one is going to sign Headley until after the first of the year. Players who sign later often don't get the biggest.contracts as many teams by then have blown their budgets or filled their needs in other ways. The recovery from such an injury is really quite good. Headley has declined the last couple of years because of two serious injuries. A torn meniscus last year for which he had surgery, and the back problem this year. I would agree that if healthy, and that's a big if, he could approximate his 2012 numbers.
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 19, 2014 7:04:57 GMT -5
Kung Fu Panda makes a lot of sense for this club. He shows a career .295/.347/.815ops for seven years. This season he's recorded only nine errors in 1192 innings. Having him play 3b in 2015 with the option of moving to first later, as juniorp90 suggests, then transitioning to DH if Papi's options are not picked up.
The Giants will make a strong effort to keep him, but if he hits the market, he won't be lacking for interest even with the QO albatross. That factor could scare off some who's pick is not protected.This is to the Sox advantage.
Tom Werner has gone on record as spending in the off-season to fill needs. I can't imagine it's just for one starting pitcher. Middlebrooks and Cecchini do not look like the solution at the hot corner. Bogaerts is set at SS for the time being. Devers is three or four years away. Headley's back injury scares me. A switch hitting Panda could fill a big need.
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Post by awall on Sept 19, 2014 7:20:09 GMT -5
I'd like to sit WMB now and give Cecchini the remainder of the ABs at 3B this fall to see if the improvement he showed late in the year at AAA continues at the ML level. I think it's too early to say Cecchini isn't the solution, but I think they need to have someone lined up who they know what kind of production they can realistically expect to get from them.
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Post by rjp313jr on Sept 19, 2014 7:46:44 GMT -5
Go get Sandoval if it costs 5/100. I have no faith in either Checchini or Middlebrooks. Headley is terrible. Gold glove fielder who posted a 7.2 WAR just two years ago (including 33 HR's as a Padre), and is posting a 3.3 WAR in this years "down year", partially fueled by a .294 BABIP (.330 career BABIP). Care to elaborate on how adding a LH bat like Headley for one year is terrible? I assume you laughed off the Adrian Beltre 2010 signing after his 2.4 WAR 2009 campaign. I think Headley is one of the most over-rated players in baseball, but he's not terrible even though I have said so myself in the past. He's not terrible compared to the other third base options in the league. It's not exactly overflowing with great players. He's a decent fit for the Sox but not a great fit. The team needs left handed bats who can hit right handed pitching well. Headley isn't great overall with the bat and he's worse from the left side than the right. That's not ideal. Sure he plays great D and he does a pretty solid job getting on base and working a count, but he's not strong as a left handed bat, which they really could use. But this always comes down to fit and contract so he may be best option all things considered. I do not want to be the team handing an inconsistent fat kungfu panda the big money. His work ethic has been questioned and he doesn't seem like a wise investment. There is a reason his current team hasn't and it's not because they are a small market team afraid to commit money. RED FLAG ALERT.
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Post by awall on Sept 19, 2014 7:57:31 GMT -5
Yea, a guy trying to avoid back surgery is not a guy I want to count on next year. In my little dream world, I would love to see them able to pry Seager away from Seattle (in my dream world they are willing to do this because they feel like Peterson is only one more year away). I don't see anyone realistically available who I would commit more than a year to at this point.
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Post by jmei on Sept 19, 2014 8:33:59 GMT -5
Surgery is not necessary to treat a herniated disc. In fact, most doctors recommend against surgery, as it can cause scar tissue to build and does not substantially improve a patient's condition as compared to rest and rehab in the long run. Only in a small minority of cases is surgery necessary, and even then, it's usually as a last resort. A significant majority of cases resolve themselves without surgery in six months' time or so.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 19, 2014 9:54:04 GMT -5
Surgery is not necessary to treat a herniated disc. In fact, most doctors recommend against surgery, as it can cause scar tissue to build and does not substantially improve a patient's condition as compared to rest and rehab in the long run. Only in a small minority of cases is surgery necessary, and even then, it's usually as a last resort. A significant majority of cases resolve themselves without surgery in six months' time or so. Trying to remember the other, more established 3b other than Chris Duncan who blamed surgery for a hernia for wrecking their career. I *thought* the person played for the Tribe, but went back 15y and no names rang any bells. You got any ideas JMEI? I agree on any invasive back surgery being risky. Some have sued even. During my searches, saw that A-Rod sued his back surgeon over his, then maybe it was par for the course in his case. Dunno.
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Post by jrffam05 on Sept 19, 2014 13:21:22 GMT -5
I am completely on board the Headley train. He is the best combination of production and cost available. Doesn't cost a pick, and what ever contract he signs will be moveable in the long run. Can't say the same about panda.
So I guess the bogaerts to third is no longer an option, but I really wouldn't mind a bogaerts and hardy of the left side.
Sent from iPhone
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Post by moonstone2 on Sept 19, 2014 14:29:20 GMT -5
Surgery is not necessary to treat a herniated disc. In fact, most doctors recommend against surgery, as it can cause scar tissue to build and does not substantially improve a patient's condition as compared to rest and rehab in the long run. Only in a small minority of cases is surgery necessary, and even then, it's usually as a last resort. A significant majority of cases resolve themselves without surgery in six months' time or so. Attached is a study of major league baseball players who have had the injury. About half of the hitters who had the injury had surgery, nearly 2/3 of pitchers did. So your statement that only a "small minority" of those who have the injury need surgery is not supported by available evidence at least as it relates to professional baseball players. The study made several interesting conclusions which you can read for yourself, but as it relates to Headley, I think it's safe to conclude that he should try to rehab the injury first and if that's not successful have surgery. With the caveat that the specifics of his condition are unknown, I would say that the chance he needs surgery is likely close to even and not nearly as small as you are implying. www.healio.com/orthopedics/journals/ortho/2012-1-35-1/%7Bb8e6aae7-eb21-42ef-9164-9a515c00a229%7D/effects-of-lumbar-disk-herniation-on-the-careers-of-professional-baseball-playersNow jmei if you are going to post a rebuttal source, please post one that relates to professional athletes and NOT one that relates to the population as a whole.
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Post by moonstone2 on Sept 19, 2014 14:34:40 GMT -5
Surgery is not necessary to treat a herniated disc. In fact, most doctors recommend against surgery, as it can cause scar tissue to build and does not substantially improve a patient's condition as compared to rest and rehab in the long run. Only in a small minority of cases is surgery necessary, and even then, it's usually as a last resort. A significant majority of cases resolve themselves without surgery in six months' time or so. Trying to remember the other, more established 3b other than Chris Duncan who blamed surgery for a hernia for wrecking their career. I *thought* the person played for the Tribe, but went back 15y and no names rang any bells. You got any ideas JMEI? I agree on any invasive back surgery being risky. Some have sued even. During my searches, saw that A-Rod sued his back surgeon over his, then maybe it was par for the course in his case. Dunno. As I stated during my earlier post, MOST though not all of those who have this injury return to play near or at their previous level of performance regardless of how the injury is treated.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 19, 2014 16:08:33 GMT -5
D'oh, how could I have left off Alvarez? He's probably the most likely of any of the above names to be moved this offseason (due to escalating salary and lack of playing time with Josh Harrison's emergence). He's got major power, but between the terrible defense (he's had major issues making throws to first base this season) and the strikeouts, not sure he's really an upgrade or would be worth the trade cost + salary. He is a buy-low guy, though, and was a three-win guy as recently as last year. He's also a lefty with opposite-field power ( peep his spray charts), and those are the guys who get a big Fenway bump. ADD: some more details on Alvarez: he's arb-eligible this offseason and is under team control through 2016. Because of Harrison's emergence and Alvarez's defensive struggles this year, there's been some talk of moving him to first base in 2015, but trading him would also seem like a possible option for Pittsburgh. And an article about trading for Alvarez: bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/boston_red_sox/2014/09/red_sox_may_power_up_with_pedro_alvarezAlso mentioned are Chisenhall (CLE) and Walker (PIT) who could move from 2nd to 3rd.
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Sept 19, 2014 17:11:27 GMT -5
Chase Headley reminds me of The Steven Drew of third base. above average with the glove, decent bat/power, always hurt with something. Alvarez is a gamble but last year he had a pISO of 240. He's that Ortiz, Hamilton, Vaughn type guy were that Fenway's right field shouldn't hinder him as he hits bombs. Playing in the East ballparks should help along with the Monster as Jmei said, he hits to all fields with power. Defensively he's nothing special. Neil Walker is interesting. Pass on Chisenhall. I like Panda.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 19, 2014 17:21:01 GMT -5
As that article says, WMB and Alvarez could both use a change of scenery.
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Post by jmei on Sept 19, 2014 18:42:48 GMT -5
Surgery is not necessary to treat a herniated disc. In fact, most doctors recommend against surgery, as it can cause scar tissue to build and does not substantially improve a patient's condition as compared to rest and rehab in the long run. Only in a small minority of cases is surgery necessary, and even then, it's usually as a last resort. A significant majority of cases resolve themselves without surgery in six months' time or so. Attached is a study of major league baseball players who have had the injury. About half of the hitters who had the injury had surgery, nearly 2/3 of pitchers did. So your statement that only a "small minority" of those who have the injury need surgery is not supported by available evidence at least as it relates to professional baseball players. The study made several interesting conclusions which you can read for yourself, but as it relates to Headley, I think it's safe to conclude that he should try to rehab the injury first and if that's not successful have surgery. With the caveat that the specifics of his condition are unknown, I would say that the chance he needs surgery is likely close to even and not nearly as small as you are implying. www.healio.com/orthopedics/journals/ortho/2012-1-35-1/%7Bb8e6aae7-eb21-42ef-9164-9a515c00a229%7D/effects-of-lumbar-disk-herniation-on-the-careers-of-professional-baseball-playersNow jmei if you are going to post a rebuttal source, please post one that relates to professional athletes and NOT one that relates to the population as a whole. That's an interesting link, but I think there's a significant selection bias. They derived their sample from "sources such as press releases, newspaper articles, and team injury reports," which means situations where the player opted for surgery are likely to have been overrepresented. Every instance where the player opted for surgery would be included in the sample (every player who has surgery will have a press release/media article about it), but there are likely a significant number of cases where a player is dealing with a herniated disk but chooses to manage/rehab it and keep it quiet which are not included in the sample. For instance, a good portion of back injuries involve disc issues, but if the player treats it through rest and rehab, the phrase "disc herniation" may not be uttered. This may not have been a big issue for the authors of the study, since they were more concerned about studying outcomes (i.e., does surgery or rehab produce better outcomes?) than about studying whether players chose surgery or rehab in the first place. As I'm sure you know, pretty much every source which approaches the issue through the lens of "how do you treat a herniated disc?" suggests that surgery is usually a last-resort option, and the vast majority of cases do not require surgical treatment. See, e.g.: www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/herniated-disk/basics/treatment/con-20029957www.webmd.com/back-pain/tc/herniated-disc-treatment-overviewThere are also plenty of links that discuss this in the context of professional athletes: www.dovepress.com/getfile.php?fileID=9327umm.edu/programs/spine/health/guides/rehabilitation-for-low-back-painwww.isdbweb.org/documents/file/256_14.htm
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