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Post by charliezink16 on Sept 27, 2014 0:35:46 GMT -5
I think Holt is a better option than Lowrie. Brock Holt is a great story. At best a legit Utility Player. 540 OPS second half of the season doesn't fair well as a starter at any position. WM is 26. The days of waiting on this player are over. Time to move on. He had several chances to put it all together. With a solid pipeline at 3B with GCech, Devers whose projected as a 3B and a steady JBetts climbing the ladder next season plus Free Agency and trade market, say good bye Will. Disagree. Middlebrooks has very little trade value, it doesn't seem logical to deal him this off season unless some team values him much higher than (I assume) most do. On the free agent & trade markets, you're either getting a player for multiple years who is more valuable than any internal options (WMB, Cecchini, Holt/WMB platoon), or a player for one year whose value is near or less than that of our internal options. That is, assuming Headley commands multiple years which I'm leaning towards. So that means Cecchini would be blocked until at least 2016, unless you move him to the outfield (which I doubt). What does this mean? Cecchini is either dealt this offseason or starting the season in AAA with a 1 year rental at 3B to start the season. Who? No idea. So what I would like to see is 1 year rental at 3B, Holt at UTIL, Middlebrooks in AAA to hopefully figure it out and pull a Chris Davis, and Cecchini in AAA to get as many AB's as possible until he forces the issue, because even though I think he could start somewhere at 3B in the majors, more AAA AB's is always a good option.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Sept 27, 2014 9:53:35 GMT -5
Brock Holt is a great story. At best a legit Utility Player. 540 OPS second half of the season doesn't fair well as a starter at any position. WM is 26. The days of waiting on this player are over. Time to move on. He had several chances to put it all together. With a solid pipeline at 3B with GCech, Devers whose projected as a 3B and a steady JBetts climbing the ladder next season plus Free Agency and trade market, say good bye Will. Disagree. Middlebrooks has very little trade value, it doesn't seem logical to deal him this off season unless some team values him much higher than (I assume) most do. I see this line entire "don't trade player x while his value is down" or "hey we should trade player y while his value is up" thrown around here all of the time, and I have to say that it seems like one of the silliest misconceptions that are out there. Let's take WMB as an example, if we were to decide to keep him so that he could recoup some of his value what are the costs? First, if we decide to let him break camp with the Red Sox there is the very real likelihood that he is awful again and is black hole in our line-up for the 150 - 200 pa's that he would likely be given before his demotion. However, I know your preference is to send him to AAA. Ok that sound great and all, but first he must be kept on the 40 man (one less player gets to be protected - probably not a great prospect but someone like Sean Coyle) and he creates a positional logjam in that you now have one milb roster spot taken by a guy who you are no longer interested in developing. Additionally, if he is your starting AAA 3bman, he is most definitely the first guy to be called up in case of a emergency. However lastly and most importantly, what does WMB have to do at this point to change the perceptions that almost all MLB front offices have of him at this point? If he is in AAA and by June is sporting an OPS of .920, how many teams are going to be knocking down the door for him? I have to say that I find it doubtful that front offices make or change their impressions on players whom they have extensive knowledge on just based on a months in the minors.
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Post by jmei on Sept 27, 2014 11:01:13 GMT -5
Disagree. Middlebrooks has very little trade value, it doesn't seem logical to deal him this off season unless some team values him much higher than (I assume) most do. I see this line entire "don't trade player x while his value is down" or "hey we should trade player y while his value is up" thrown around here all of the time, and I have to say that it seems like one of the silliest misconceptions that are out there. Let's take WMB as an example, if we were to decide to keep him so that he could recoup some of his value what are the costs? First, if we decide to let him break camp with the Red Sox there is the very real likelihood that he is awful again and is black hole in our line-up for the 150 - 200 pa's that he would likely be given before his demotion. However, I know your preference is to send him to AAA. Ok that sound great and all, but first he must be kept on the 40 man (one less player gets to be protected - probably not a great prospect but someone like Sean Coyle) and he creates a positional logjam in that you now have one milb roster spot taken by a guy who you are no longer interested in developing. Additionally, if he is your starting AAA 3bman, he is most definitely the first guy to be called up in case of a emergency. However lastly and most importantly, what does WMB have to do at this point to change the perceptions that almost all MLB front offices have of him at this point? If he is in AAA and by June is sporting an OPS of .920, how many teams are going to be knocking down the door for him? I have to say that I find it doubtful that front offices make or change their impressions on players whom they have extensive knowledge on just based on a months in the minors. I agree with the broader point that sometimes you have to sell low and there are costs to keeping a guy in an organization. But I think you're exaggerating the costs of keeping WMB in the org in 2015 here. For one thing, pretty much everyone who wants to keep him envisions him starting the year in Pawtucket. That takes up a 40-man spot, but the 40-man crunch is not that serious, and it's more likely that a Noe Ramirez or an Aaron Kurcz is the one who gets edged out rather than Coyle. I see the larger cost as being crowding out 3B reps in Pawtucket, seeing as Cecchini will likely also be at the level and in need of playing time (of course, that can be partially alleviated by playing Middlebrooks at DH most of the time, since we know he can field decently and questions are mostly about his bat). I also think there are definite benefits to keeping him in the org that go beyond just inflating his trade value. It happens all the time that prospects who scuffle (even for an extended period of time) in their initial exposure to the majors go down to the minors and make a mechanical adjustment that allows them to see the ball better or be quicker to the ball. You have the extreme cases in J.D. Martinez and Chris Davis and Jose Bautista, but even just marginal improvements in plate discipline can make a player much more likely to add major league value. And sometimes, a brief hot stretch really does change another front office's opinion of a player and boost his trade value. Think about Jose Iglesias last year-- a couple hot months in the majors was enough for him to be the centerpiece of a trade that brought back the best starting pitcher moved at the deadline.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 27, 2014 11:15:58 GMT -5
I see this line entire "don't trade player x while his value is down" or "hey we should trade player y while his value is up" thrown around here all of the time, and I have to say that it seems like one of the silliest misconceptions that are out there. Let's take WMB as an example, if we were to decide to keep him so that he could recoup some of his value what are the costs? First, if we decide to let him break camp with the Red Sox there is the very real likelihood that he is awful again and is black hole in our line-up for the 150 - 200 pa's that he would likely be given before his demotion. However, I know your preference is to send him to AAA. Ok that sound great and all, but first he must be kept on the 40 man (one less player gets to be protected - probably not a great prospect but someone like Sean Coyle) and he creates a positional logjam in that you now have one milb roster spot taken by a guy who you are no longer interested in developing. Additionally, if he is your starting AAA 3bman, he is most definitely the first guy to be called up in case of a emergency. However lastly and most importantly, what does WMB have to do at this point to change the perceptions that almost all MLB front offices have of him at this point? If he is in AAA and by June is sporting an OPS of .920, how many teams are going to be knocking down the door for him? I have to say that I find it doubtful that front offices make or change their impressions on players whom they have extensive knowledge on just based on a months in the minors. I agree with the broader point that sometimes you have to sell low and there are costs to keeping a guy in an organization. But I think you're exaggerating the costs of keeping WMB in the org in 2015 here. For one thing, pretty much everyone who wants to keep him envisions him starting the year in Pawtucket. That takes up a 40-man spot, but the 40-man crunch is not that serious, and it's more likely that a Noe Ramirez or an Aaron Kurcz is the one who gets edged out rather than Coyle. I see the larger cost as being crowding out 3B reps in Pawtucket, seeing as Cecchini will likely also be at the level and in need of playing time (of course, that can be partially alleviated by playing Middlebrooks at DH most of the time, since we know he can field decently and questions are mostly about his bat). I also think there are definite benefits to keeping him in the org that go beyond just inflating his trade value. It happens all the time that prospects who scuffle (even for an extended period of time) in their initial exposure to the majors go down to the minors and make a mechanical adjustment that allows them to see the ball better or be quicker to the ball. You have the extreme cases in J.D. Martinez and Chris Davis and Jose Bautista, but even just marginal improvements in plate discipline can make a player much more likely to add major league value. And sometimes, a brief hot stretch really does change another front office's opinion of a player and boost his trade value. Think about Jose Iglesias last year-- a couple hot months in the majors was enough for him to be the centerpiece of a trade that brought back the best starting pitcher moved at the deadline. I agree. It is hard to believe that Middlebrooks, with minor league success followed by an outstanding rookie campaign could have fallen this far, this fast unless there is something physically wrong (people say no), he is having a crisis of confidence that is paralyzing him at the plate or refuses/can't make adjustments. Of concern is his reported determination not to play winter ball after being asked by the Sox. That can't help endear him to management either. I hate to give up on the guy but on the totality of circumstances, suspect that he will be a casualty...trade value or not.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 27, 2014 12:32:38 GMT -5
Brock Holt is a great story. At best a legit Utility Player. 540 OPS second half of the season doesn't fair well as a starter at any position. WM is 26. The days of waiting on this player are over. Time to move on. He had several chances to put it all together. With a solid pipeline at 3B with GCech, Devers whose projected as a 3B and a steady JBetts climbing the ladder next season plus Free Agency and trade market, say good bye Will. Disagree. Middlebrooks has very little trade value, it doesn't seem logical to deal him this off season unless some team values him much higher than (I assume) most do. What's funny is that every single year the refrain on Middlebrooks is "they can't trade him now, they'd be selling low", and then every single year his value ends up even lower than the last.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 27, 2014 12:39:46 GMT -5
I agree. It is hard to believe that Middlebrooks, with minor league success followed by an outstanding rookie campaign could have fallen this far, this fast unless there is something physically wrong (people say no), he is having a crisis of confidence that is paralyzing him at the plate or refuses/can't make adjustments. Of concern is his reported determination not to play winter ball after being asked by the Sox. That can't help endear him to management either. I hate to give up on the guy but on the totality of circumstances, suspect that he will be a casualty...trade value or not. His "minor league success" never included good K/BB ratios which are his entire problem as a hitter, and his "outstanding rookie season" consisted of about six weeks of good performance. He's never been successful in the majors for any length of time. I understand that there's still upside there, but a team that considers itself a contender cannot use a player like Middlebrooks as Plan A at third.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,700
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Post by nomar on Sept 27, 2014 15:11:31 GMT -5
If the Sox are going to get a 3B over the offseason hopefully it will be someone they can slide over to 1B following next season. I don't think you can trust Cecchini to start at 3B next year. He's looked good so far, but he's striking out a lot. I would be surprised if he doesn't have his ups and downs like the rookies have this year (outside of Betts). I think if you're tryin to contend next year, Cecchini isn't the starter. He'll end up getting a good amount of PA because of injuries I'd assume.
I think Aramis Ramirez would make a lot of sense if he doesn't get a QO. He's hit very well on the road this year, would likely benefit from Fenway Park, and would be less expensive than Headley. He's old, but Cecchini is a capable backup for him and he probably wouldn't have a problem moving to 1B in 2016 if we needed him to.
The good thing about Headley is that he definitely won't be attached to draft pick compensation. We could steal the Yankees' MVP of the second half (not much of a crown to have but still...). He's a great defender and has hit better since coming to the AL East. The only question with him would be if he would hit enough for a first baseman. If we really are invested in Cecchini as our future 3B or think Bogaerts will have to move off of SS, then giving a long term contract to Headley might not make all that much sense. I'm sure if he's worth whatever deal he's given, Headley could be a valuable trade commodity if we end up not needing him because Cecchini emerges.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Sept 27, 2014 15:22:14 GMT -5
Another thing to note from today's game: Headley is a lousy 1B.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 27, 2014 15:33:08 GMT -5
Another thing to note from today's game: Headley is a lousy 1B. The error was pretty bad, but he's a great 3B and so far defensive metrics love him at 1B too. He barely plays the position, but he would be fine there defensively undoubtedly. Offense is the bigger question mark with him.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 27, 2014 15:34:54 GMT -5
Another thing to note from today's game: Headley is a lousy 1B. I'm hoping cherrington stays away from Headley this offseason.
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Post by tonyj1973 on Sept 27, 2014 15:54:31 GMT -5
C E C C I N I
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Sept 27, 2014 15:58:48 GMT -5
C E C C H I N I. SSS but i've liked what i've seen both offensively and defensively beside that play in the ninth that he should have got.
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 27, 2014 19:57:39 GMT -5
I was hoping he'd get the lion's share of starts at 3B in the final two series and he has. At the very least he's set up a nice equal-footing competition with WMB for next season providing the Sox don't sign a FA or trade for a third baseman.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 27, 2014 20:07:11 GMT -5
I'd go with Cechinni/Holt/Middlebrooks/Castillo/Xander/Betts. Throw them in a room and whoever comes out alive get's it.
My point being we have plenty of guys who could play the slot in a pinch and someone is going to emerge. Cechinni has already been at AAA for 407 AB this year. He's not going to learn much more. If he doesn't make it go on to plan B.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 27, 2014 20:15:57 GMT -5
If Castillo is in the Arizona Fall League put him at 3rd. He doesn't need practice in CF. I bet he would be fine at 3rd. Check out his video at SS ( See at 1:00 to 1:20 section into the video ): fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/08/23/rusney-castillo-the-video/Why couldn't that player play 3rd? He's got infield skills and a strong arm. Seems to be able to come in on balls well and throw off balence. If they don't want play Mookie at 3rd put him in CF and Castillo at 3rd. Solves the logjam in the OF plus the need at 3rd with no extra cost. Spend the cash on catching and pitching.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 27, 2014 21:26:55 GMT -5
My hope is that the Sox find a rental type 3b for next season. My gut feeling is that the Sox are going to sign Sandoval for 3b, and he will be a bat that the Sox can plug into the middle of the lineup other than Ortiz that can hit lefthanded.
My hope is that Garin Cecchini is completely ready by June of 2015. I admit that this guy is one of my binkies. I believe that he will hit for some power and he will hit for a good average and draw more than his fair share of walks. I don't think his defense will be anything special but it should be serviceable.
He's hit well everywhere he's been until he hit Pawtucket this year. He struggled, but he finished up very strongly and the increase in power was noticeable. That gives me hope that he's figured it out and that he will get some extra base hits at the big level as well.
I hope the Sox stick with Cecchini although I would understand the Red Sox going after Sandoval, who himself with his body type could be a big risk over the long-term.
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 28, 2014 10:55:01 GMT -5
I think there is merit to the idea of having Castillo or Cespedes try out at 3B in ST. If either one could hold down the position defensively, there certainly would be an upgrade to the team's overall offense. It could be a better move than signing one of the available free agents.
Unfortunately, by the time it can be tried, the decision on signing a free agent already will have been made.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 28, 2014 11:00:06 GMT -5
If Castillo is in the Arizona Fall League put him at 3rd. He doesn't need practice in CF. I bet he would be fine at 3rd. Check out his video at SS ( See at 1:00 to 1:20 section into the video ): fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/08/23/rusney-castillo-the-video/Why couldn't that player play 3rd? He's got infield skills and a strong arm. Seems to be able to come in on balls well and throw off balence. If they don't want play Mookie at 3rd put him in CF and Castillo at 3rd. Solves the logjam in the OF plus the need at 3rd with no extra cost. Spend the cash on catching and pitching. Watching Castillo play SS is like watching Denzel Washington play hoops against his "son" Ray Allen in that Spike Lee movie. Denzel as an actor has good body control and makes the moves correctly, but he does not have NBA quickness. I don't think Castillo has MLB IF quick hands and feet.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 28, 2014 11:01:04 GMT -5
If Cespedes was an average defender at 3B he'd be a very good player. Too bad he probably wouldn't be and they'll never try it out anyway.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 28, 2014 11:21:33 GMT -5
At least Castillo has played some infield in Cuba and if he were a SS that would indicate he has good enough hands and quickness. No one seems to be bringing it up though so maybe there is a reason. Just saying with all the guys we have it would seem that someone would emerge to be able to cover that slot.
The more I watch the tea leaves fall the more I sense a Cespedes trade goes down for a LH hitting 3rd baseman or a starter like Leake in some sort of pacage deal. They may not extend him. I don't see them even trying Cespedes at 3rd at all.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 28, 2014 11:26:31 GMT -5
If Castillo is in the Arizona Fall League put him at 3rd. He doesn't need practice in CF. I bet he would be fine at 3rd. Check out his video at SS ( See at 1:00 to 1:20 section into the video ): fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/08/23/rusney-castillo-the-video/Why couldn't that player play 3rd? He's got infield skills and a strong arm. Seems to be able to come in on balls well and throw off balence. If they don't want play Mookie at 3rd put him in CF and Castillo at 3rd. Solves the logjam in the OF plus the need at 3rd with no extra cost. Spend the cash on catching and pitching. Watching Castillo play SS is like watching Denzel Washington play hoops against his "son" Ray Allen in that Spike Lee movie. Denzel as an actor has good body control and makes the moves correctly, but he does not have NBA quickness. I don't think Castillo has MLB IF quick hands and feet. If he played SS in Cuba he should potentially have mlb hands and feet at 3rd. I'm just trying to get hitters in the lineup and if Mookie can't play 3rd why not Castillo? I get that an extremely strong arm is needed but SS have strong arms also right? SS have to run in on balls and throw off balence. 3rd base is where good hitting SS go when their range diminishes.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 28, 2014 11:29:22 GMT -5
If the Red Sox thought there was any chance Castillo could play 3B for them he'd be playing there now.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 28, 2014 12:37:16 GMT -5
Disagree. Middlebrooks has very little trade value, it doesn't seem logical to deal him this off season unless some team values him much higher than (I assume) most do. I see this line entire "don't trade player x while his value is down" or "hey we should trade player y while his value is up" thrown around here all of the time, and I have to say that it seems like one of the silliest misconceptions that are out there. Let's take WMB as an example, if we were to decide to keep him so that he could recoup some of his value what are the costs? First, if we decide to let him break camp with the Red Sox there is the very real likelihood that he is awful again and is black hole in our line-up for the 150 - 200 pa's that he would likely be given before his demotion. However, I know your preference is to send him to AAA. Ok that sound great and all, but first he must be kept on the 40 man (one less player gets to be protected - probably not a great prospect but someone like Sean Coyle) and he creates a positional logjam in that you now have one milb roster spot taken by a guy who you are no longer interested in developing. Additionally, if he is your starting AAA 3bman, he is most definitely the first guy to be called up in case of a emergency. However lastly and most importantly, what does WMB have to do at this point to change the perceptions that almost all MLB front offices have of him at this point? If he is in AAA and by June is sporting an OPS of .920, how many teams are going to be knocking down the door for him? I have to say that I find it doubtful that front offices make or change their impressions on players whom they have extensive knowledge on just based on a months in the minors. Well one additional thing he needs to do is prove he has more than warning track power again. Not sure what happened there.
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Post by jmei on Sept 28, 2014 13:16:01 GMT -5
You can't just snap your fingers and move guys to positions they've never played in their professional career, especially if you're switching them between the infield and outfield. Guys like Holt are the vast exception. Most guys need thousands of innings of experience at a position before they're ready to play it at a major league caliber.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,962
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Post by jimoh on Sept 28, 2014 14:17:31 GMT -5
If he played SS in Cuba he should potentially have mlb hands and feet at 3rd. ... I don't think Castillo ever did play SS in Cuba and even if he had, it wouldn't mean he was good enough for an MLB IF. Daniel Nava played eight innings in CF for the 2013 World Champion. Doesn't mean he was good, only that there was no one available who was better.
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