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Post by moonstone2 on Sept 28, 2014 21:24:10 GMT -5
Let's put some skin in the game. If Headley has surgery this offseason, you can choose my avatar through the All-Star Break. If he hasn't had surgery by Opening Day, I get to choose your avatar through the ASB. Deal? But I said that the chances he would need surgery were 50 percent? You said it was zero. My argument can't be proven, and neither can yours. Yours could be disproven. Why don't you actually offer some real evidence to back up your argument as opposed to misreprenting your sources and offering childish wagers.
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Post by greenmonsterwhalers on Sept 29, 2014 1:04:13 GMT -5
Here's an interesting long-shot idea: trading for Alex Gordon and moving him back to third base. He's a very good hitter, bats lefty, and has played third base in the past. In 2016, you can either keep him at third or move him back to left field if Middlebrooks or Cecchini earn a spot in the bigs and/or if we don't re-sign Cespedes or have a better option in the outfield.
There are two issues with this idea. The first issue is whether it would be wise to move him back to third base. He was almost exclusively a third baseman from 2007-2009 and played a bit at third base in 2010. Here's his D-WAR from 07-09: .9 (full season), -.5 (almost a full season), -.2 (in only 49 games). So whether he could play decent defense at a position he hasn't played in four years and a position where he was a slightly below average defender to begin with is a legitimate question. He's only 30 though so I don't think it would be totally out of the question. Here's where it gets interesting though- check out his D-WAR as a left fielder from 2011-2014 (all between 148-160 games): 1.3, 1.9, 1.3, 2.6! D-WAR has him as 2014's best defensive left fielder in the majors by a huge margin. He's at 2.6 and the next highest everyday left fielder is Yoenis Cespedes at 0.4. In 2013 and 2012 he finished as the second-best left fielder in the majors in D-WAR. So if you move him from left field to third base, you're taking an excellent defensive left fielder and shifting him into a below-average third baseman. Would we be willing to do that?
The second issue is getting Kansas City to trade him. It would be tough but I don't think it would be impossible. He only has two years left on his contract (technically one plus an option year which he plans to exercise), so I think the Royals could be open to trading him albeit at a very high price. I could see some kind of three-team scenario where we deal Cespedes and land Gordon (there would obviously be other pieces involved). Maybe they would bite on some package of young, cheap, controllable talent. Maybe they would seek some kind of pitching in return if Shields leaves. All I'm saying is I don't think it's totally impossible for him get traded. That would free up our outfield logjam, a jam which could be even more intense in the event we are able to land Mr. Stanton. One note on the outfield: Daniel Nava has become quite a good player (3.5 WAR in just 112 games including his horrific start) and though he isn't as sexy as someone like Cespedes (4.2 WAR in 151 games), I feel like he's getting overlooked when we talk about our 2015 outfield plans. He's gone from a being a liability in the field to being a good defender (1.5 D-WAR), hits from the left side of the plate (basically), is cheap (about to enter arbitration for the first time), under team control for three more years, and isn't especially old (31).
Thoughts on the Alex Gordon to third base idea?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 29, 2014 1:15:15 GMT -5
Alex Gordon is already an overrated player because of his defensive metrics and probably would beucky to be an average 3B now. Considering that his bat is above average but not to a great extent, there's definitely options out there that will be just as valuable as Gordon at 3B at a smaller price.
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Post by jmei on Sept 29, 2014 9:57:29 GMT -5
Let's put some skin in the game. If Headley has surgery this offseason, you can choose my avatar through the All-Star Break. If he hasn't had surgery by Opening Day, I get to choose your avatar through the ASB. Deal? But I said that the chances he would need surgery were 50 percent? You said it was zero. My argument can't be proven, and neither can yours. Yours could be disproven. Why don't you actually offer some real evidence to back up your argument as opposed to misreprenting your sources and offering childish wagers. I didn't say it was zero, I said it was very unlikely (and the bet reflected these odds-- the earlier he had surgery, the longer I would have had to keep your chosen avatar, whereas yours would have been a max of three months). I offered plenty of evidence to back up my argument, but I figured we reached the point where going further down the rabbit hole was no longer productive for either of us. Let's make it this, then-- if he doesn't have surgery, I choose your avatar for April (and only April). If he does, you choose mine for all of the 2015 regular season. Exaggerated odds in your favor. Care to back up your words?
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 29, 2014 10:44:41 GMT -5
What about trying to acquire someone like Daniel Murphy of the Mets? Was a 3b in the minors, has played a few games there in mlb. Not a high celing, but LHH, dependable 730 OPS the last three years, hits better vs RHP but not useless vs LHP, hits to all fields, can fill in in corner OF and 1b.
Apologies if this has been suggested three times four pages earlier.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 29, 2014 11:04:35 GMT -5
What about trying to acquire someone like Daniel Murphy of the Mets? Was a 3b in the minors, has played a few games there in mlb. Not a high celing, but LHH, dependable 730 OPS the last three years, hits better vs RHP but not useless vs LHP, hits to all fields, can fill in in corner OF and 1b. Apologies if this has been suggested three times four pages earlier. I think it would be hard to count on him being able to handle 3B. He's like Michael young, he can't field no matter where he plays. Also not sure that the price is all that low.
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 30, 2014 9:06:10 GMT -5
Watching Castillo play SS is like watching Denzel Washington play hoops against his "son" Ray Allen in that Spike Lee movie. Denzel as an actor has good body control and makes the moves correctly, but he does not have NBA quickness. I don't think Castillo has MLB IF quick hands and feet. If he played SS in Cuba he should potentially have mlb hands and feet at 3rd. I'm just trying to get hitters in the lineup and if Mookie can't play 3rd why not Castillo? I get that an extremely strong arm is needed but SS have strong arms also right? SS have to run in on balls and throw off balence. 3rd base is where good hitting SS go when their range diminishes. This is an idea worth exploring. And now is the time to do it. It's not as if you're desperate and throwing him in at 3B in the middle of a season. AFL is a time for experimentation and exploring good fits for talent. A dozen or so games between the AFL and Winter League should give the Sox a handle on how effective he can be at the hot corner. If it doesn't work out, he goes back to CF. If it does, the "where to play Mookie" puzzle is solved.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 30, 2014 9:30:16 GMT -5
He played infield during his workouts and apparently was not very good.
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 30, 2014 10:34:58 GMT -5
He played infield during his workouts and apparently was not very good. How did the Cespedes do in his infield workouts? Was it just horsing around or trying it out?
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Post by jdb on Sept 30, 2014 11:50:09 GMT -5
Cespedes isn't willing to play CF or RF when the team asks I doubt he would play 3B.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Sept 30, 2014 12:19:33 GMT -5
Is it just me or does it feel like After the press conference Cherington is all in on Sandoval?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 30, 2014 12:53:40 GMT -5
He played infield during his workouts and apparently was not very good. How did the Cespedes do in his infield workouts? Was it just horsing around or trying it out? I have no idea (assuming you're talking about whatever one of the beat writers was referring to his arm from third before a game this month). I'm talking about Castillo's workouts for scouts before signing, which there were extensive reports from written by Ben Badler at Basball America.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 30, 2014 13:46:02 GMT -5
Cespedes isn't willing to play CF or RF when the team asks I doubt he would play 3B. Don't know about you but to me that's a good thing, not a bad thing. I can't even imagine him trying to flag down balls in the triangle out in center, or that pinball corner in right. As it is he overruns balls in left, or has them bouncing off the wall over his head or glove and back onto the field and rolling away from him. What makes anyone think there's a third baseman hidden in there?
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 30, 2014 14:17:54 GMT -5
More and more I think Cespedes is a trade chip. Papi will probably go ballistic but I'm worried about his nonchalance in the outfield and I even felt his effort on the last day at the plate was obvious. Certainly none of us has any idea what Ben is thinking, but maybe a newly renewed Allen Craig and our new toy (Rusney Castillo) will be just fine backing up Papi. Cespedes worries me ever since that game he played that one inning in left when he bare-handed one ball, dove for an easy liner, and threw one into the infield from "down under". Does he have some talent? Yes. Not sure of his "heart". Power? Yes. Brain? Not sure!
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 30, 2014 14:56:08 GMT -5
How did the Cespedes do in his infield workouts? Was it just horsing around or trying it out? I have no idea (assuming you're talking about whatever one of the beat writers was referring to his arm from third before a game this month). I'm talking about Castillo's workouts for scouts before signing, which there were extensive reports from written by Ben Badler at Basball America. Local beat writers can often give some insight in to management's thoughts and strategies. In this case I was looking for a way to get Mookie into the regular lineup since there does not seem to be any evidence he can handle the duties at 3B. And the Sox have thus far not played him there even on a look see basis.
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Post by jdb on Sept 30, 2014 15:11:17 GMT -5
Is it just me or does it feel like After the press conference Cherington is all in on Sandoval? To me he makes sense on a deal 4 years or less bc of the potential flexibility he could provide being able to play the corners and as a possible replacement to Papi and hits RHP well. If we sign a guy that costs a pick though I'd rather sign multiple.
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Post by 111soxfan111 on Sept 30, 2014 15:39:49 GMT -5
Maybe I'm off base here but I don't have a lot of confidence in Sandoval's bat being good enough for 1B/DH 3 years from now. He's averaged 115 wRC+ over the past three years and his two monster seasons were back in 2009 & 2011. So much of his value is tied up in playing 3B. He does that surprisingly well for 5-11 / 245# but despite his relative youth, physically he doesn't look like a guy who can stick at third long term. I'm not saying he would be horrible, but you have to plan on carrying some dead weight at the end of his contract ... sorry, I couldn't help myself.
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Post by jrffam05 on Sept 30, 2014 15:57:27 GMT -5
Why is Chase Headley not the obvious choice here? In his down year offensively he would of been 4th on our team in wRC+ of all players with 50 AB, 3rd of players who had enough at bats to qualify (taking out Mookie). He is a switch hitter who over his career had great success against right handers. He saw 4.04 pitches per at bat this year good for 31st in the league and has a good OBP track record. He plays good defense, and this year was rated by fangraphs as the third most valuable defender in the league. He just turned 30, but what ever contract he gets won't take him past age 35. He also won't cost a draft pick. He has been healthy, playing in 89% of games over the past 6 years, which would put him 20th in games played over that time frame. He also isn't a player we have to project to move to DH by the end of his contract.
I haven't been very active on the forums recently but I believe someone called out 4/60M as his likely price, which sounds about right to me. At that contract, he will be movable in most situations, think Prado as a comp. He is the best investment out there, price/performance, and way ahead of Panda in terms of value.
This guy just screams Red Sox target. OBP, pitches per plate appearance, switch hitter, defense, draft pick compensation, club house guy, short term commitment.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 30, 2014 16:50:49 GMT -5
Why is Chase Headley not the obvious choice here? In his down year offensively he would of been 4th on our team in wRC+ of all players with 50 AB, 3rd of players who had enough at bats to qualify (taking out Mookie). He is a switch hitter who over his career had great success against right handers. He saw 4.04 pitches per at bat this year good for 31st in the league and has a good OBP track record. He plays good defense, and this year was rated by fangraphs as the third most valuable defender in the league. He just turned 30, but what ever contract he gets won't take him past age 35. He also won't cost a draft pick. He has been healthy, playing in 89% of games over the past 6 years, which would put him 20th in games played over that time frame. He also isn't a player we have to project to move to DH by the end of his contract. I haven't been very active on the forums recently but I believe someone called out 4/60M as his likely price, which sounds about right to me. At that contract, he will be movable in most situations, think Prado as a comp. He is the best investment out there, price/performance, and way ahead of Panda in terms of value. This guy just screams Red Sox target. OBP, pitches per plate appearance, switch hitter, defense, draft pick compensation, club house guy, short term commitment. Yup. I had mentioned him a while ago for the reasons you cite. I also note that, when hitting LH, he goes well to left and left-center. He would welcome the wall. ...heckuva fielder too. Questions raised, as I understand it, are with his back. I would think with A-Rod coming back the Yankees are less likely to pay 15M for a second third-baseman.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 30, 2014 18:07:31 GMT -5
Count me in also on Headley. The Panda worries me for many reasons. He, for me, is not worth giving up a draft pick for. With that said, man we need 1 or 2 left handed hitters in our line-up. The only thing I'm not crazy about with Headley is the K's.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 30, 2014 19:22:21 GMT -5
It sure looks like Headley to me also but I wish they would go with an internal solution. I think Cechinni will be knocking on that door quickly.
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Post by jmei on Sept 30, 2014 19:31:35 GMT -5
Yeah, I've been all-in on Headley for a while now. I'm fairly confident that he's one of their top choices, and it's just a question of how intense his bidding will get. Unfortunately, just eyeballing it, a good number of teams might be looking for someone at that position. I agree that the Yankees have bigger fish to fry (rotation, shortstop, maybe right field or second base), but there's also a pretty good chance that they just eat ARod's contract or relegate him to DH/1B duties and pursue one of the big names. The Giants will want to re-sign Sandoval or replace him with another starter-type. Nick Castellanos was pretty bad for the Tigers-- would they look for an upgrade? If the Orioles move Machado to SS, they'll be in the market for a 3B. The Brewers will either re-sign Aramis Ramirez or find a replacement. The Blue Jays need an infielder (with Lawrie manning either 2B or 3B), but they don't have much to spend.
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Post by charliezink16 on Sept 30, 2014 20:43:01 GMT -5
I too like the idea of signing Headley, but what do you all propose we do with Cecchini in that situation. The situation doesn't effect Holt as he's our UTIL man, nor does it effect WMB as we can't depend on him and AAA is his place to be for the start of 2014. But Cecchini is a major league caliber 3B, and signing Headley would render him useless. So what's the solution? I think they gave him time in LF as an act of desperation (w/ our dire need of OF'ers before the trade deadline), rather than actually viewing him as an OF'er, so my guess is we either roll w/ Garin + a 1-year rental, whoever that may be, or deal him this offseason.
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Post by 111soxfan111 on Sept 30, 2014 21:59:00 GMT -5
I too like the idea of signing Headley, but what do you all propose we do with Cecchini in that situation. The situation doesn't effect Holt as he's our UTIL man, nor does it effect WMB as we can't depend on him and AAA is his place to be for the start of 2014. But Cecchini is a major league caliber 3B, and signing Headley would render him useless. So what's the solution? I think they gave him time in LF as an act of desperation (w/ our dire need of OF'ers before the trade deadline), rather than actually viewing him as an OF'er, so my guess is we either roll w/ Garin + a 1-year rental, whoever that may be, or deal him this offseason. IDK, Cecchini had two good months this year. He was pretty good in his call up but SSS so you have to take it with a grain of salt. I guess I'm saying he hasn't exactly forced his way onto the roster. I don't think you can plan on him stepping into that role when making your offseason plans. If he pans out that's just gravy. He could end up replacing Nava as the long end of a LF platoon, be traded for another piece or Headley could be traded. It would be a good problem to have and one that resolves itself fairly easily. Now if it boils down to a salary tax issue where we have to choose between Headley and a quality SP that might be a harder choice. Still I think our group of young starters is better than our 3B options so I might lean toward Headley. That said 4/60 for him makes me pretty nervous.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 30, 2014 22:03:28 GMT -5
Cecchini is nowhere near ready. He either needs to hit for way more power (which he started to do towards the end) or cut his strike outs to under 15%. I wouldn't count on him next year and therefore wouldn't really count on him at all. If he surprises, then good problem to have.
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