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Post by jmei on Sept 30, 2014 22:05:28 GMT -5
I too like the idea of signing Headley, but what do you all propose we do with Cecchini in that situation. The situation doesn't effect Holt as he's our UTIL man, nor does it effect WMB as we can't depend on him and AAA is his place to be for the start of 2014. But Cecchini is a major league caliber 3B, and signing Headley would render him useless. So what's the solution? I think they gave him time in LF as an act of desperation (w/ our dire need of OF'ers before the trade deadline), rather than actually viewing him as an OF'er, so my guess is we either roll w/ Garin + a 1-year rental, whoever that may be, or deal him this offseason. I don't think Cecchini is likely to be a major-league-caliber 3B next year, for reasons discussed here. It's not like he has nothing left to prove in Pawtucket-- he still strikes out too much, there are still real questions about whether he can drive the ball to his pull side on a consistent basis, and he can still improve his defense at 3B (or get additional reps in the outfield, which can only help his versatility). He'll have two options left and will be only 24 next year, and I honestly think he's best served spending 2015 continuing to polish his game in AAA. After that? If/when Cecchini proves he's actually ready to be an above-average MLB hitter, that just gives the front office options (trading either Cecchini or Headley, moving Cecchini to the outfield, or even letting Napoli walk as a FA and moving one of them to 1B). I've never really understood the complaining that occurs when the Red Sox have too many good players. That's a problem that's easily solved when it materializes, and not having any good players is by far the more important concern.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 30, 2014 22:08:15 GMT -5
I have no problem with the sox having a lot of good players.
However I do have a problem with the sox having a lot of mediocre players with question marks!!!!
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Post by jmei on Sept 30, 2014 22:10:49 GMT -5
That said, there are actually a good number of short-term options brought up in the last few pages of this thread. Those include: -Aramis Ramirez -Luis Valbuena -Pedro Alvarez -Daniel Murphy -Jed Lowrie If Valbuena comes dirt cheap, he's an option, but he's probably a below-average starter who is not much better than Holt. Aramis Ramirez might require a multi-year deal on the pricier side, and at his age (turns 37 next year), a Mike Cameron-esque catastrophic decline is not out of the question, which makes me wary. Lowrie's bat is not good enough at 3B to make him worth the contract he's going to get. Assuming reasonable trade costs, I could be talked into Alvarez or Murphy (both of whom hit left-handed and are a year away from free agency). Alvarez is the high-risk, high-reward guy-- he could be sub-replacement level (as he was this year), or he could fix his throwing issues, pepper the Monster with his opposite-field power, and be one of the better third basemen in the league. Murphy is the high-floor, low-ceiling guy who is probably a steady two-and-a-half-win guy. Which is the better fit for the 2015 Red Sox? I could go either way. On one hand, the lower-risk guy may seem more appropriate after all their high-risk bets came up empty this year (the tentative 2015 roster has some of these guys penciled in as well-- think Castillo, Bogaerts, Craig, Victorino, Buchholz, etc). On the other hand, you could go with the higher-risk guy, with the idea that if Alvarez is a bust, you have three other guys who could step in in Holt, Cecchini, and Middlebrooks (though, do you have faith in any of those guys? They could all bust, similar to how all the CF options this year (Sizemore, Bradley, Victorino) busted).
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Post by larrycook on Sept 30, 2014 22:15:58 GMT -5
Instead of the veteran retreads, why not go all out and call Colorado to see what it would take for tulo and their young third baseman? We have all the pitching prospects they desperately need plus all the outfielders they could ever hope for.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 30, 2014 22:26:50 GMT -5
Instead of the veteran retreads, why not go all out and call Colorado to see what it would take for tulo and their young third baseman? We have all the pitching prospects they desperately need plus all the outfielders they could ever hope for. We're more likely to trade Papi and Pedey this winter than Colorado is to trade those two.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 30, 2014 22:33:50 GMT -5
That said, there are actually a good number of short-term options brought up in the last few pages of this thread. Those include: -Aramis Ramirez -Luis Valbuena -Pedro Alvarez -Daniel Murphy -Jed Lowrie If Valbuena comes dirt cheap, he's an option, but he's probably a below-average starter who is not much better than Holt. Aramis Ramirez might require a multi-year deal on the pricier side, and at his age (turns 37 next year), a Mike Cameron-esque catastrophic decline is not out of the question, which makes me wary. Lowrie's bat is not good enough at 3B to make him worth the contract he's going to get. Assuming reasonable trade costs, I could be talked into Alvarez or Murphy (both of whom hit left-handed and are a year away from free agency). Alvarez is the high-risk, high-reward guy-- he could be sub-replacement level (as he was this year), or he could fix his throwing issues, pepper the Monster with his opposite-field power, and be one of the better third basemen in the league. Murphy is the high-floor, low-ceiling guy who is probably a steady two-and-a-half-win guy. Which is the better fit for the 2015 Red Sox? I could go either way. On one hand, the lower-risk guy may seem more appropriate after all their high-risk bets came up empty this year (the tentative 2015 roster has some of these guys penciled in as well-- think Castillo, Bogaerts, Craig, Victorino, Buchholz, etc). On the other hand, you could go with the higher-risk guy, with the idea that if Alvarez is a bust, you have three other guys who could step in in Holt, Cecchini, and Middlebrooks (though, do you have faith in any of those guys? They could all bust, similar to how all the CF options this year (Sizemore, Bradley, Victorino) busted). The other upside to Alvarez is that if he breaks out here this year he'd likely be inclined to negotiate an extension and we'd have a 1B for the future. If he busts you can try your best to play the hot hand whether it's Holt, GC, or WMB. Imperfect, yes, but doable.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 30, 2014 23:30:47 GMT -5
I think it's about 90% likely that the Sox want a left handed hitting external solution. Management has unequivocally stated that as their goal ( Werner ). That is clearly their plan, but some scenarios might make that problematic.
The Yanks are saying Arod is their planned 3rd baseman. I'm not buying it. I bet the Yankees liked Headley's defense and fit. They may well want to keep him and drive the cost up and make A-Rod their DH. I don't even like the 4 year / $60 level for Headley. What if it's more than $70 mil? What if we just don't land Headley? Do we want to sign a 250 lb. 3rd baseman to a 3-4 year deal? If plan A and B fail as they did when we tried to sign Ruiz at catcher last winter and ended up with Pierzynsky, what do we do then?. That could happen again.
It's been said that we have a glut of starting pitcher prospects, so we could use 1 or more to maybe land a 3rd baseman but I honestly think pitching is our clear priority in 2015 and it's not just one guy we are looking for. And we could use the money we have in other areas as well.
For example, I like the idea of making a run at Russell Martin instead. The Dodgers want a catcher badly but maybe that bridge was burned and we have a real shot at one of the best catchers in the game. Maybe he is even a better value than Headley ( he was a 5.3 WAR player in 2014 ), and if we have him on staff it makes Vasquez or Swihart excellent injury back up or trade chips. Maybe it wouldn't hurt Swihart to spend all year in AAA. I know people here will not dig that scenario but we need a catcher in 2015 right. Look at those options and there is a huge drop after Martin. I think we should at least consider Martin. He may be willing to do a 2-3 year deal on an overpay, similar to what we did with Victorino. That might be better use of our cash than Headley.
You can never have enough pitching,,,right? Well that sure looks like a huge priority right now and that is not going to be cheap talent to find. Even top relievers will cost some cash this winter. Maybe it's better to trade some AAA guys and even spend 70% of the money we have on pitching. It's that big of a problem.
Finally regarding Cechinni, I remember reading that he played 92 games his senior year of high school. Both his parents were baseball coaches. That guy is a baseball rat if anyone is a baseball rat. Is he really going to benefit that much from another full year in AAA, after spending almost all this year there?
A lot of players start their mlb careers with little power. For example Ellsbury. I think Cechinni will grow into some power still. He's a big kid. At least he is left handed and will get on base at a decent rate. He has looked comfortable in mlb so far. Confidence does not appear to be a problem. And we have a ton of other options who may well be able to take the 3rd base slot over time, if necessary. We as a team should be looking at adding value from our existing resources, if possible. If they sit in AAA or on the bench our young players do not add nearly as much value to the team. We finished way under .500 ball. I'd rather see us develop our core and prepare for a stronger future.
I doubt if very many people agree here but that's my position.
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Oct 1, 2014 0:20:53 GMT -5
I think it's about 90% likely that the Sox want a left handed hitting external solution. Management has unequivocally stated that as their goal ( Werner ). That is clearly their plan, but some scenarios might make that problematic. The Yanks are saying Arod is their planned 3rd baseman. I'm not buying it. I bet the Yankees liked Headley's defense and fit. They may well want to keep him and drive the cost up and make A-Rod their DH. I don't even like the 4 year / $60 level for Headley. What if it's more than $70 mil? What if we just don't land Headley? Do we want to sign a 250 lb. 3rd baseman to a 3-4 year deal? If plan A and B fail as they did when we tried to sign Ruiz at catcher last winter and ended up with Pierzynsky, what do we do then?. That could happen again. It's been said that we have a glut of starting pitcher prospects, so we could use 1 or more to maybe land a 3rd baseman but I honestly think pitching is our clear priority in 2015 and it's not just one guy we are looking for. And we could use the money we have in other areas as well. For example, I like the idea of making a run at Russell Martin instead. The Dodgers want a catcher badly but maybe that bridge was burned and we have a real shot at one of the best catchers in the game. Maybe he is even a better value than Headley ( he was a 5.3 WAR player in 2014 ), and if we have him on staff it makes Vasquez or Swihart excellent injury back up or trade chips. Maybe it wouldn't hurt Swihart to spend all year in AAA. I know people here will not dig that scenario but we need a catcher in 2015 right. Look at those options and there is a huge drop after Martin. I think we should at least consider Martin. He may be willing to do a 2-3 year deal on an overpay, similar to what we did with Victorino. That might be better use of our cash than Headley. You can never have enough pitching,,,right? Well that sure looks like a huge priority right now and that is not going to be cheap talent to find. Even top relievers will cost some cash this winter. Maybe it's better to trade some AAA guys and even spend 70% of the money we have on pitching. It's that big of a problem. Finally regarding Cechinni, I remember reading that he played 92 games his senior year of high school. Both his parents were baseball coaches. That guy is a baseball rat if anyone is a baseball rat. Is he really going to benefit that much from another full year in AAA, after spending almost all this year there? A lot of players start their mlb careers with little power. For example Ellsbury. I think Cechinni will grow into some power still. He's a big kid. At least he is left handed and will get on base at a decent rate. He has looked comfortable in mlb so far. Confidence does not appear to be a problem. And we have a ton of other options who may well be able to take the 3rd base slot over time, if necessary. We as a team should be looking at adding value from our existing resources, if possible. If they sit in AAA or on the bench our young players do not add nearly as much value to the team. We finished way under .500 ball. I'd rather see us develop our core and prepare for a stronger future. I doubt if very many people agree here but that's my position. I agree with Jmei, his strikeouts rate is a little high and he looked really fooled on some change ups in the last few days. I think he looks pretty good defensively though.
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Post by charliezink16 on Oct 1, 2014 2:06:42 GMT -5
Admittedly, I'm higher on Cecchini than most on this board. I ranked him at #4 in the recent rankings. It was just a year ago that Keith Law ranked him as the #20 prospect in his midseason rankings, equating his floor to a Bill Mueller type career. His hit tool is off the charts, his approach is plus, and he's one of the highest character guys in the system. Personally I think that people are putting too much weight into his first half struggles, while overlooking his career success. The K rate was higher this season than in previous years, but I see him making adjustments as he adjusts to AAA/MLB. People are worrying about his lack of power, but a) beating a dead horse but power is last to develop, b) his SLG% jumped from .329 > .462 after the all-star break, and c) he still has doubles power to all fields, something that will (and has in a SSS) play up well at Fenway.
If we fill our 3B vacancy via free agency, we'd be committing, at a minimum, 3 years to the player (whether it be Hanley Ramirez, Chase Headley, or Pablo Sandoval). The other 2 reasonable free agent options are Jed Lowrie and Aramis Ramirez. Lowrie (IMO) isn't an upgrade over our internal options (and will probably spend half the season on the DL), while Ramirez will either return to Milwaukee ($14mil mutual option) or command 2-3 years.
So if we address the 3B vacancy through the free agent market, Cecchini will be blocked for, at least, the next 2 seasons. That renders him useless IMO. If the front office sees Garin as their long term 3B, finding a 1 year stop gap is the ideal solution. Though I see him as near ML ready, we must remember that Cecchini missed his senior year of HS due to an ACL tear, and missed the 2nd half of his 2012 season after breaking his wrist, so another year of development time would be great for him. I'm a fan of the idea of trading for either Daniel Murphy or Pedro Alvarez. If my man kills it in AAA and lines himself up for a midseason call up, so be it, otherwise he can get an extra year of minor league AB's under his belt thus lining himself up to be our 2016 opening day starting 3B.
I think Chase Headley is a great fit, so would be content w/ Boston signing him, but that's the only free agent 3B deal worth entertaining.
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Post by awall on Oct 1, 2014 6:46:06 GMT -5
I wonder what it would cost to get Uribe away from LA? Might be possible if they bring back Hanley and move him to 3B.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 1, 2014 7:22:51 GMT -5
OK, Cechinni's last year of playing in high school was 92 games, or something close to that. You are right that he was injured when we drafted him but he played a ton of baseball growing up. The guy had a TJ surgury when he was around 12 years old. My point being that I bet he had lots of development time before he was ever drafted.
There is a huge difference between that and minor league development but I don't think Cechinni is as bad as his numbers indicated this year or as good as they indicated last year but somewhere in between is pretty decent. And he has already had an entire year of AAA development. It wasn't long ago when a lot of us considered him to be a top 3 level prospect. I had him projected to be our #1 by this time of 2014. I believe in Malcom Gladwell's theorem. The kind of repetition and baseball "practice" Cechinni has had and his physical talent should give him a shot by now of being a real solid mlb hitter.
I bet he has some problem with off speed stuff but who doesn't in mlb? The bottom line is that the Sox are a big market team and the safe approach is to go with a Headley or another proven commodity. We got burned last year and now they are gun shy. But I would much rather roll the dice with Cechinni at 3rd and use the money elsewhere. Trade some of our pitching prospects for better starting pitching but not generally for 1 year deal guys who put us right back in the same situation next winter. I'm ok with trading quite a bit of talent for Hamels, or similar approaches but that sort of deal happens once. And it is sometimes incredibly expensive. Lester and Hamels would do nicely though. Philly has to do something and I wouldn't be surprised if it's a 2 for, similar to the "You get Beckett if you take Lowell".
Throw some cash at a guy like Russel Martin and hope something good happens with Checinni at 3rd. That is a better overall solution to me than going with Headley for 3 to 4 yerars and not having the money available to make the rest of the team better.
We can't trade our way to the top or develop our way to the top all the time. It's incredible how little impact a good farm actually has most of the time. We all overate it, including me, but we should do everything we can to develop a strong core right now from internal solutions. Now is the time to do that sort of thing. In the long run we are a much beter team if we do.
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Post by jrffam05 on Oct 1, 2014 8:39:12 GMT -5
Is there really any chance the Red Sox start 2015 without either trading or signing some solution at 3B? I really can't imagine it, especially with all the heat they took in 2014 with Bogaerts and Bradley. Bogaerts was being toted as a phenom and Bradley was very well established in AAA, both have merited a starting job much more than Cecchini has so far. I like Cecchini too, but he hasn't earned the starting job yet. We have both the need and the resources to fix 3B.
As for Martin, I would agree we should be in on him, but he is not a priority. He might get a ridiculous contract that we couldn't justify matching with Vazquez on the roster and Swihart coming up soon.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 1, 2014 9:02:10 GMT -5
Cecchini will need to keep his K rate around 17% or lower to find long term success and I don't think he's there yet. You certainly can't bank on what we already have for 3B next year. Agreed on his potential but we need some sort of acquisition.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 1, 2014 10:02:58 GMT -5
Russell Martin is probably getting 4 years. We went with a 1-year stopgap last year because we didn't want to block Vazquez and Swihart, and both had very pleasing seasons. So I give it about a 0.1% chance that we even call.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Oct 1, 2014 13:02:52 GMT -5
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Post by jrffam05 on Oct 1, 2014 13:32:28 GMT -5
Russell Martin is probably getting 4 years. We went with a 1-year stopgap last year because we didn't want to block Vazquez and Swihart, and both had very pleasing seasons. So I give it about a 0.1% chance that we even call. Seeing as there is more than a .1% chance that Vazquez or Swihart gets traded this offseason, a chance the Red Sox would still be interested in Martin if neither is traded, and that the Red Sox (and basically all MLB teams) do their due diligence even if the target is unlikey, I would say there is a high probability that they call. No he is not a great fit with the current construct and is an unlikely signing, but there will still be some sort of focus there. That's all I was trying to say Billy is probably as open to trades as we on the forums are, so this isn't impossible. That being said he's not moving Donaldson unless it makes his team better over those 3 years, and probably beyond. That's no easy task to accomplish. I could see multiple players that could add value to his team in some capacity but to really fit the asking price would be hard. There also would be big demand for him throughout the MLB to compete with. File this up in the highly unlikely cabinet.
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Oct 1, 2014 14:00:57 GMT -5
Something like Owens, Swihart, Margot, and lottery for Donaldson+.
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Post by jmei on Oct 1, 2014 14:06:28 GMT -5
I'm now irrationally obsessed with the idea of Pedro Alvarez. Yeah, I know all the warts (bad defense, strikes out too much, might be expensive in terms of both trade cost and salary), but man, that power. Somebody talk me out of it.
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Post by jmei on Oct 1, 2014 14:07:58 GMT -5
Something like Owens, Swihart, Margot, and lottery for Donaldson+. Let's keep discussion of specific trade packages to the trade proposal subforum. They often devolve into nit-picky debates over how much is too much to give up and gum up threads. Thanks.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 1, 2014 14:17:05 GMT -5
I'm now irrationally obsessed with the idea of Pedro Alvarez. Yeah, I know all the warts (bad defense, strikes out too much, might be expensive in terms of both trade cost and salary), but man, that power. Somebody talk me out of it. I agree mainly because of our plethora of options should he fail at 3B here. Riding the hot bat if Alvarez is terrible wouldn't be ideal but it wouldn't kill us either. Alvarez is a serious buy low opportunity with star potential if he figured it out. I would pull the trigger if Cecchini is still in the system. One thing I noticed you talked about was his opposite field power. Alvarez does have power to all fields, but I think something that contributed to his struggles this year was that he wasn't pulling the ball as often (Cecchini like struggles on a lesser scale).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 1, 2014 14:19:11 GMT -5
I'm now irrationally obsessed with the idea of Pedro Alvarez. Yeah, I know all the warts (bad defense, strikes out too much, might be expensive in terms of both trade cost and salary), but man, that power. Somebody talk me out of it. How about the career obp hovering around .300? That do anything for ya? How about the ability to kill a yak... with MIND BULLETS... oh wait that's something else. I'm not convinced that the massive edge in power he has over Cecchini makes him a better option given the superior approach Cecchini would have, likely Avg and OBP advantages, cost savings, etc. That said, in a situation where the team thinks there's something they can tweak and fix him, I would get it, especially with Cheech as a safety net.
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Post by michael on Oct 1, 2014 14:31:50 GMT -5
I would point out that a Martin signing isn't blocking Sweihart for more than a year. Martin could pull a V-Mart and move to 1st base or DH in 2016 depending on Papi's situation. My real question now is does obtaining a decent LHH catcher mean a strict platoon in 15?
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Post by waltmd on Oct 1, 2014 14:34:01 GMT -5
After what happened this season, the Sox will be hesitant to entrust 3B to Cecchini next season. They clearly want a LH bat in that spot, so I suspect it will come down to signing Headley or Sandoval, or making a trade for someone else.
I share the concerns over Sandoval's weight, but the dude can really hit. His defense at 3B is actually not bad, although the weight will always be a concern. He might need to move to 1B or DH in a couple of years. Headley can field, but the bat is nothing like it was in 2012.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 1, 2014 14:39:05 GMT -5
I'm now irrationally obsessed with the idea of Pedro Alvarez. Yeah, I know all the warts (bad defense, strikes out too much, might be expensive in terms of both trade cost and salary), but man, that power. Somebody talk me out of it. I'd trade WMB for him, but that's just swapping problems.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 1, 2014 14:43:18 GMT -5
I would point out that a Martin signing isn't blocking Sweihart for more than a year. Martin could pull a V-Mart and move to 1st base or DH in 2016 depending on Papi's situation. My real question now is does obtaining a decent LHH catcher mean a strict platoon in 15? I think you're going to be shocked in how much Martin gets. I wouldn't be surprised if he approaches McCann's salary (prior to the Yankees winning bid, whatever that was). The guy is one of the best catchers in baseball and isn't going to be platooning with Vazquez. We seriously have much more important positions to spend the money on.
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