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Post by pedroelgrande on Sept 24, 2014 11:26:17 GMT -5
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 24, 2014 11:33:23 GMT -5
Not bad. Three of the top ten are Sox.
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Post by jmei on Sept 24, 2014 11:37:36 GMT -5
Here's a snippet of the scouting report on Devers:
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Post by ethanbein on Sept 24, 2014 13:02:02 GMT -5
Guerra ahead of Chavis is a little interesting, no? Scouts really do seem to love him.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 24, 2014 13:05:49 GMT -5
Guerra ahead of Chavis is a little interesting, no? Scouts really do seem to love him. It is interesting, if not too surprising. I put him in my top 20 in the list I did last night. Feeling good about that right now.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 24, 2014 13:36:08 GMT -5
If guerra is an above average defender he's definitely a very good prospect. He has good pop, not just a slap hitter. You just have to hope his approach improves, but reports on him always seem to be optimistic.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Sept 24, 2014 14:21:37 GMT -5
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Post by pedroelgrande on Sept 24, 2014 14:52:08 GMT -5
Mike got all his questions answered
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 24, 2014 15:01:56 GMT -5
I think if the BA guys looked deeper and saw the complete turnaround by Chavis, he would've ranked higher. Understandable though, can't spend all your time looking at Red Sox GCL specs.
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Post by moonstone2 on Sept 24, 2014 15:26:41 GMT -5
I think if the BA guys looked deeper and saw the complete turnaround by Chavis, he would've ranked higher. Understandable though, can't spend all your time looking at Red Sox GCL specs. I don't think it's just that. Guerra has a more diverse tool box in that he's much more likely to stay at SS. Chavis is going to have to rely on his hit tool since he's probably not going to be a huge power guy and likely will be sliding to the right of the defensive spectrum. He's really going to have to be an awfully good hitter to make it the majors and that's the hardest tool to develop.
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Post by joshv02 on Sept 24, 2014 15:28:46 GMT -5
I think if the BA guys looked deeper and saw the complete turnaround by Chavis, he would've ranked higher. Understandable though, can't spend all your time looking at Red Sox GCL specs. Read the article. It's free (tho gated). They talk specifically about that.
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Post by joshv02 on Sept 24, 2014 15:29:59 GMT -5
I think if the BA guys looked deeper and saw the complete turnaround by Chavis, he would've ranked higher. Understandable though, can't spend all your time looking at Red Sox GCL specs. I don't think it's just that. Guerra has a more diverse tool box in that he's much more likely to stay at SS. Chavis is going to have to rely on his hit tool since he's probably not going to be a huge power guy and likely will be sliding to the right of the defensive spectrum. He's really going to have to be an awfully good hitter to make it the majors and that's the hardest tool to develop. I think it's more "7 vs. 9, whatever (shrug)."
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 24, 2014 16:27:10 GMT -5
I think if the BA guys looked deeper and saw the complete turnaround by Chavis, he would've ranked higher. Understandable though, can't spend all your time looking at Red Sox GCL specs. Read the article. It's free (tho gated). They talk specifically about that. Yeah they specifically reference that he was expanding the zone and that once he stopped chasing high fastballs, he took off.
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Post by dewey1972 on Sept 24, 2014 21:29:07 GMT -5
I think if the BA guys looked deeper and saw the complete turnaround by Chavis, he would've ranked higher. Understandable though, can't spend all your time looking at Red Sox GCL specs. I don't think it's just that. Guerra has a more diverse tool box in that he's much more likely to stay at SS. Chavis is going to have to rely on his hit tool since he's probably not going to be a huge power guy and likely will be sliding to the right of the defensive spectrum. He's really going to have to be an awfully good hitter to make it the majors and that's the hardest tool to develop. I agree with almost everything you said here, but I guess it depends on what you mean by a "huge power guy." It's true that he is unlikely to be a 30+ home run guy, but Badler said his swing features loft and he flashes plus raw power. Now, there's obviously a way to go to translate flashing plus raw power into home runs, but given his bat speed, it seems like if he turns out as hoped, he's a good bet for lots of doubles and at least decent home run power.
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Post by dewey1972 on Sept 24, 2014 21:33:30 GMT -5
The top 20 from five years ago serves as a good reminder about how far these guys are from the majors. #2 was Kelvin De Leon, #3 was none other than Reymond Fuentes, and #5 was Carlos Perez. I've literally never heard of half of the top 20.
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Post by moonstone2 on Sept 25, 2014 10:30:30 GMT -5
I don't think it's just that. Guerra has a more diverse tool box in that he's much more likely to stay at SS. Chavis is going to have to rely on his hit tool since he's probably not going to be a huge power guy and likely will be sliding to the right of the defensive spectrum. He's really going to have to be an awfully good hitter to make it the majors and that's the hardest tool to develop. I agree with almost everything you said here, but I guess it depends on what you mean by a "huge power guy." It's true that he is unlikely to be a 30+ home run guy, but Badler said his swing features loft and he flashes plus raw power. Now, there's obviously a way to go to translate flashing plus raw power into home runs, but given his bat speed, it seems like if he turns out as hoped, he's a good bet for lots of doubles and at least decent home run power. I think the best we can really hope for is that he tops out somewhere in the teens as far as home runs. If you do that, man you better hit especially if you are playing 3B or even farther to the right on the spectrum. Chavis has a very advanced hit tool for his age which is good, and was able to make adjustments, also good. But he certainly has his weaknesses in that he doesn't have a very diverse tool set.
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Post by jmei on Sept 25, 2014 10:43:03 GMT -5
In this new run environment, we have to recalibrate some of our expectations. There are only seven third basemen this year who hit more than 15 home runs this year. If Chavis hits, say, .270 with 15 home runs, he'll easily be one of the top ten offensive third basemen in the league (and if he walks at an above-average clip, he'd push top 5). Third base is still high enough on the defensive spectrum that as long as he's an above-average hitter overall (i.e., wRC+ of 100 or higher), he'll be a starting-caliber guy. And even with averagish power, he only has to hit .260 or so to project as a 100 wRC+ guy.
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Post by iakovos11 on Sept 25, 2014 10:48:59 GMT -5
Plus, if he has plus raw power, I think the best we can hope for - without getting overly optimistic - is more than teens for HR's. I don't see any reason why 22-25 wouldn't be possible. Who knows, he may never display plus raw power in games, but if he does, then he should 20+ HR's.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 25, 2014 13:47:45 GMT -5
I'm not worried about Chavis' power really. Doubt he's less than a 15 HR guy and he's got a good eye and a potentially plus hit tool.
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Post by moonstone2 on Sept 25, 2014 16:04:25 GMT -5
The player you describe would be an average to slightly below average regular.
The median BA among 3B in the AL this year is roughly .270. With an average walk rate of 7.5% and 15 HRs over 550 ABs or so would be about average for the position in the AL. So the bar for regulars anyways is higher than you are letting on.
Remember when using wRC+ that the statistic includes the performance of players who are not capable of being even replacement level hitters. Hence by definition a player must have a wRC+ of greater than 100 to be considered an average regular player.
And of course hitting .270 in the majors with an average walk rate while playing a decent 3B is not that easy as Garrin Cecchini is now finding out. If you have power or can play further to the left on the spectrum there is that much less pressure on your hit tool, which is the hardest tool to project and develop.
I am not sure I even agree that Guerra is a better prospect today, but he won't have to hit as much as Chavis to get there because he can play plus defense at SS.
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Post by jclmontana on Sept 25, 2014 17:32:14 GMT -5
I think the best we can really hope for is that he tops out somewhere in the teens as far as home runs. Maybe this is just a semantics thing, but this is a really silly sentence. You are talking about a 18 year old who flashes plus power and who reportedly has some loft in his swing. Of course one can hope for more than 20 home runs per year. He is an 18 year old who just finished the GCL. One cannot credible project his performance at the MLB level, whether it be a positive or negative projection (including if he reaches the majors at all), but hope is an entirely different thing, especially for his skill set, pedigree, and initial performance. You are pretty adamant about shooting down other poster's unsupported optimism, but a lot of your pessimism is not really supported by much either. It is easy to downplay potential, simply because most prospects do fall, but don't pretend that you know something that is essentially unknowable.
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Post by jmei on Sept 25, 2014 18:42:12 GMT -5
The player you describe would be an average to slightly below average regular. The median BA among 3B in the AL this year is roughly .270. With an average walk rate of 7.5% and 15 HRs over 550 ABs or so would be about average for the position in the AL. So the bar for regulars anyways is higher than you are letting on. Remember when using wRC+ that the statistic includes the performance of players who are not capable of being even replacement level hitters. Hence by definition a player must have a wRC+ of greater than 100 to be considered an average regular player. This is just not really the case. Here is the list of qualified third basemen in 2014, sorted by wRC+. Our hypothetical hitter would hit roughly .270/.330/.424 (IsoP derived by averaging the IsoP of the four qualified players with 15 home runs this year, IsoD is the league-average .060), which would slot in nicely between Aramis Ramirez (ranked 10th on that list) and Pablo Sandoval (ranked 11th). It would come to roughly a 112 wRC+, which would make him a well above-average hitter for third base even if you just look at "regulars," however you want to define that.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 27, 2014 15:28:18 GMT -5
Guerra ahead of Chavis is a little interesting, no? Scouts really do seem to love him. It is interesting, if not too surprising. I put him in my top 20 in the list I did last night. Feeling good about that right now. I wrote about this after/during the GCL championship games.. Those 2 HR's he jacked out to both R/C and the other to dead R/F were NOT cheapies. he hammered them. He also did a nice job of covering up for Dever's lack of range at 3b in game 3 while playing SS. Would have liked to seen more games of course, but he "slid" almost around the position and did a fine job. Can't say the same for Devers though.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 27, 2014 15:31:55 GMT -5
It is interesting, if not too surprising. I put him in my top 20 in the list I did last night. Feeling good about that right now. I wrote about this after/during the GCL championship games.. Those 2 HR's he jacked out to both R/C and the other to dead R/F were NOT cheapies. he hammered them. He also did a nice job of covering up for Dever's lack of range at 3b in game 3 while playing SS. Would have liked to seen more games of course, but he "slid" almost around the position and did a fine job. Can't say the same for Devers though. Does devers move to first next season ?
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 27, 2014 15:51:29 GMT -5
I wrote about this after/during the GCL championship games.. Those 2 HR's he jacked out to both R/C and the other to dead R/F were NOT cheapies. he hammered them. He also did a nice job of covering up for Dever's lack of range at 3b in game 3 while playing SS. Would have liked to seen more games of course, but he "slid" almost around the position and did a fine job. Can't say the same for Devers though. Does devers move to first next season ? 2c here is that he sticks another year at least and they continue working with him at the position. Cecchini had to learn it the hard way, wasn't very good early on, same with Boggs.
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