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Baseball America League Top 20
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Post by moonstone2 on Sept 28, 2014 10:03:39 GMT -5
The player you describe would be an average to slightly below average regular. The median BA among 3B in the AL this year is roughly .270. With an average walk rate of 7.5% and 15 HRs over 550 ABs or so would be about average for the position in the AL. So the bar for regulars anyways is higher than you are letting on. Remember when using wRC+ that the statistic includes the performance of players who are not capable of being even replacement level hitters. Hence by definition a player must have a wRC+ of greater than 100 to be considered an average regular player. This is just not really the case. Here is the list of qualified third basemen in 2014, sorted by wRC+. Our hypothetical hitter would hit roughly .270/.330/.424 (IsoP derived by averaging the IsoP of the four qualified players with 15 home runs this year, IsoD is the league-average .060), which would slot in nicely between Aramis Ramirez (ranked 10th on that list) and Pablo Sandoval (ranked 11th). It would come to roughly a 112 wRC+, which would make him a well above-average hitter for third base even if you just look at "regulars," however you want to define that. As usual you have no idea what you are talking about. 15 home runs per 550 abs is about the median for qualified 3b.The median 3b hit .269. With an average walk rate......unless you are hitting a massive amount of doubles in relation to singles. You are going to be around average with the numbers you spit out. Also your math methodology is really bad. You can't take the average of four players who hit 15 home runs to. determine a hypothetical isod and you know that.
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Post by jmei on Sept 28, 2014 10:24:13 GMT -5
Per the link I posted above which contains all 24 qualified third basemen, the median 3B hit 13 home runs and hit .269. But that does not mean the median third baseman hit both 13 home runs with a .269 average, because home runs and batting average are slightly negatively correlated (guys who hit for power also generally strike out more and thus hit for a lower average). If you can do both, you're an above-average regular (and, as I discussed above, you'd be in the back-end of the top 10).
Averaging the ISOs of the guys who hit 15 home runs seems like the perfect way to figure out how many doubles/triples you can expect from a guy who hits 15 home runs. If you have a better way to do it, I'm all ears.
You should also tone down the personal insults. You've been warned about this multiple times now.
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Post by moonstone2 on Sept 28, 2014 22:06:56 GMT -5
Per the link I posted above which contains all 24 qualified third basemen, the median 3B hit 13 home runs and hit .269. But that does not mean the median third baseman hit both 13 home runs with a .269 average, because home runs and batting average are slightly negatively correlated (guys who hit for power also generally strike out more and thus hit for a lower average). If you can do both, you're an above-average regular (and, as I discussed above, you'd be in the back-end of the top 10). Averaging the ISOs of the guys who hit 15 home runs seems like the perfect way to figure out how many doubles/triples you can expect from a guy who hits 15 home runs. If you have a better way to do it, I'm all ears. You should also tone down the personal insults. You've been warned about this multiple times now. Okay......you are wrong feel better? Isod is a function of total bases and the amount of hits. 13 home runs could be a lot of home runs or a very few depending on the amount of hits or abs the player has. If you want to know if 15 home runs is a high or low for a certain group. You would have to compare it to something else like at bats or hits. The median 3b hit .269, which isn't that much of a difference from .270. We said average walks, so assuming 600 pas we get a hr/ab that is slightly below the median for the sample. I don't see how a player who hits .270 with 15 home runs and an average amount of walks is going to be as good as you say considering the facts presented. I think that numbers are a great way to analyze a baseball strategy, public policy, or any number of things. But when the numbers and facts are misused and misrepresented.a diservice is done. You give power to those who think that a pitcher with a lot of wins is good or that climate change is fake. I also think it's inappropriate for a moderator to moderate a discussion in which they are participating.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 28, 2014 22:30:46 GMT -5
Heck.. I think 99% of the climate crap being spewed out is BS, but what does that have to do with baseball??
Seriously.. On the numbers you mentioned.. All the numbers that have been "invented" over the last 2-3 decades have made it so confusing one can make a borderline player look like an AS, and an AS look like a borderline player if one wants. It's how goof balls like BJ Upton manage to milk mega contracts year after year and Sandoval will next.
I'm not slamming the way some people rely mostly on it, times change and it's the way they prefer it do "scout" the game now. Terrible deals will be the result of going purely by numbers.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 28, 2014 23:37:27 GMT -5
I also think it's inappropriate for a moderator to moderate a discussion in which they are participating. Cool, I will since I'm not technically a moderator. Stop with the personal insults or you'll get banned for the 17th or 18th time or whatever it is that you're on at this point. You've generally been a good poster since we decided we would let you back onto the board when we moved to proboards, and particularly so of late. You tend to disagree with jmei, which is fine. You're allowed to disagree with him. But note how when he responds to you he doesn't give you snarky responses like "As usual you have no idea what you are talking about." We're not going to tolerate that kind of thing on these forums anymore. You've been warned. You're free to disagree with him, whether you're right or wrong. Whatever. Do it civilly. If you have something along those lines you need to get off your chest, do it in Throwdown. By the way, wouldn't have posted this here, but y'know, you don't read PM's and all that.
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Post by jmei on Sept 29, 2014 9:47:56 GMT -5
Isod is a function of total bases and the amount of hits. 13 home runs could be a lot of home runs or a very few depending on the amount of hits or abs the player has. If you want to know if 15 home runs is a high or low for a certain group. You would have to compare it to something else like at bats or hits. I only used qualified hitters, so there's no playing time issue (everyone had at least 550ish PAs). Back to the main point-- even if Chavis has just average power, he still has plenty of potential to be an above-average starter (if he turns out to be the plus hitter many project him to be, if he develops above-average discipline, is an above-average defender, etc.). He's not the sort of high-risk, low-ceiling player you characterized him as.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,438
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Post by nomar on Sept 29, 2014 10:18:43 GMT -5
I would think there's a solid chance he turns into a very solid defensive 3B too.
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Post by soxfanatic on Sept 30, 2014 9:19:59 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Sept 30, 2014 9:32:19 GMT -5
A little disappointed that Mauricio Dubon didn't make the top 20.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 30, 2014 9:54:38 GMT -5
A little disappointed that Mauricio Dubon didn't make the top 20. .017 IsoD & .075 IsoP might have something to do with it. I actually don't see a clear path for him since Lin hasn't exactly raked ahead of him and Guerra and Chavis should be passing him on the ladder. I'll be the first to admit that I haven't seen him so I'm basically blind, the life story is nice but I don't see anything in the profile that screams riser. To me, he looks like Vinicio with less glove.
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Post by jmei on Sept 30, 2014 10:07:04 GMT -5
He only struck out 9.5% of the time, which is a Mookie-esque obscenely low rate (would have been 6th lowest amongst qualified MLB hitters). Vinicio literally struck out twice as often in his first year at Greenville. If Dubon can maintain a low strikeout rate, he stands a good chance of hitting for a high average, and as a guy who projects to stick at shortstop (and has the tools to be an above-average defender there), that's probably enough to make him a major leaguer. And, as you alluded to, he's a raw enough baseball player that you could envision him adding some plate discipline as he gets more reps, and maybe some power, too (he's still super skinny and could add some muscle).
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 30, 2014 10:47:34 GMT -5
He's 20 and weighs 160 pounds, I'm not so sure that he's likely to not remain skinny. As a singles hitter without speed he'd need a ton of discipline to compensate and as the walks go up, the strikeouts will as well, he still has a 3/1 K/BB ratio (close).
SS at Greenville is one of the more interesting spots this coming season. Like all prospects, I hope he does well but he's got a difficult road ahead of him. Have to give him credit though for doing what it takes to make his dream come true.
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Post by iakovos11 on Sept 30, 2014 11:03:44 GMT -5
A little disappointed that Mauricio Dubon didn't make the top 20. And disappointed Longhi didn't make it. Would he if he hadn't been hurt? Might be a good chat question.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 30, 2014 11:31:26 GMT -5
Wilkerson, Mars and Betts also had decent NYPL seasons but realistically we're talking top 20 in a 14 team league and the GCL had the better "prospects".
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 30, 2014 12:47:05 GMT -5
Wilkerson, Mars and Betts also had decent NYPL seasons but realistically we're talking top 20 in a 14 team league and the GCL had the better "prospects". Mars sure, and Betts was mentioned in a companion piece about mid-round sleepers in the NYPL, but Wilkerson is inarguably a non-prospect. Let me put it this way: He is older than Anthony Ranaudo, Allen Webster, Matt Barnes, Edwin Escobar, Brian Johnson, Henry Owens, Eduardo Rodriguez, Keith Couch, Justin Haley, Luis Diaz, Mike Augliera, and so on. He was signed because they needed someone in the rotation who was eligible for the league and could reliably eat innings. Not a guy.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 30, 2014 12:50:55 GMT -5
Wilkerson, Mars and Betts also had decent NYPL seasons but realistically we're talking top 20 in a 14 team league and the GCL had the better "prospects". On the flipside, its really nice to see McAvoy make the list given his relative lack of 'prospect status.' Hopefully we found a guy there.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 30, 2014 13:40:45 GMT -5
Wilkerson, Mars and Betts also had decent NYPL seasons but realistically we're talking top 20 in a 14 team league and the GCL had the better "prospects". On the flipside, its really nice to see McAvoy make the list given his relative lack of 'prospect status.' Hopefully we found a guy there. Why not prospect status? He was a fifth round pick, that's not all that low and got pretty close to slot. I commented several times in the game threads about his (and Haley's) ground ball rates. I actually thought he'd be on the list but higher than 20th. Chris, agreed on Wilkerson, forgot about that. Had a great year but BA would be more 'prospect' oriented than say MiLB. LOL, not a "GUY". Of all the people on the Spinners, the guy I'm most interested in as a sleeper is Whitson. Should be 100% healthy this coming year for the first time in a while. He's also a scumbag agent victim which makes it easy for me to root for him. ADD: I wanted to back my statement about his agent (for those that don't know, he is a former #9 first round pick of the Padres): Padres owner Jeff Moorad, himself a former player agent, calls the situation “a badly orchestrated agent’s game,” continuing with even harsher words:
The kid was bawling his eyes out on the other end. Whitson got caught up in a dangerous game of chicken played by his agent. You get the feeling, with him bawling, he got taken, too. There’s a right way and a wrong way to do things, and it was not handled well on the player’s side. We feel were misled by the agent, and it’s something we won’t forget. Lesson learned. ducksnorts.com/blog/2010/08/he-could-have-been-the-second-best-pitcher-named-whitson-in-padres-history.html
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Post by ramireja on Sept 30, 2014 14:38:47 GMT -5
On the flipside, its really nice to see McAvoy make the list given his relative lack of 'prospect status.' Hopefully we found a guy there. Why not prospect status? He was a fifth round pick, that's not all that low and got pretty close to slot. I commented several times in the game threads about his (and Haley's) ground ball rates. I actually thought he'd be on the list but higher than 20th. Chris, agreed on Wilkerson, forgot about that. Had a great year but BA would be more 'prospect' oriented than say MiLB. LOL, not a "GUY". Of all the people on the Spinners, the guy I'm most interested in as a sleeper is Whitson. Should be 100% healthy this coming year for the first time in a while. He's also a scumbag agent victim which makes it easy for me to root for him. ADD: I wanted to back my statement about his agent (for those that don't know, he is a former #9 first round pick of the Padres): Padres owner Jeff Moorad, himself a former player agent, calls the situation “a badly orchestrated agent’s game,” continuing with even harsher words:
The kid was bawling his eyes out on the other end. Whitson got caught up in a dangerous game of chicken played by his agent. You get the feeling, with him bawling, he got taken, too. There’s a right way and a wrong way to do things, and it was not handled well on the player’s side. We feel were misled by the agent, and it’s something we won’t forget. Lesson learned. ducksnorts.com/blog/2010/08/he-could-have-been-the-second-best-pitcher-named-whitson-in-padres-history.htmlWell I mean relative to most of the other names on that list. Of the drafted players on the list, three were 1st round picks, two were 1S picks, two were 2nd round picks, one was a third round pick, one was a fourth round pick (McAvoy), and another was a 9th rounder. Also, when he was drafted, most speculated that he was going to be an under-slot sign. I'm not saying that the guy doesn't have talent, I'm just saying he was a relatively unknown commodity heading into the draft and that its nice to see him in a list with highly-regarded players out of college.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 30, 2014 14:48:14 GMT -5
He's also a scumbag agent victim which makes it easy for me to root for him. ADD: I wanted to back my statement about his agent (for those that don't know, he is a former #9 first round pick of the Padres): Sounds like he/his camp wanted more than they originally thought they should ask for. As the son of a major leaguer who has seen the process, I have a hard time believing Whitson was misled by a "scumbag" agent about the risks of the strategy. That the risk happened does not make Whitson a "victim." As to the BA list, I guess the weak showing is a function of drafting HSers, who go to the GCL, rather than college kids, who would go to the NY Penn.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 30, 2014 22:20:41 GMT -5
Longhi is only what? 19 and he was really doing well until the injury. That is a guy to watch.
Does Travis start out at Salem in April?
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Post by charliezink16 on Oct 1, 2014 1:34:57 GMT -5
Wilkerson, Mars and Betts also had decent NYPL seasons but realistically we're talking top 20 in a 14 team league and the GCL had the better "prospects". On the flipside, its really nice to see McAvoy make the list given his relative lack of 'prospect status.' Hopefully we found a guy there. Absolutely. Only 27 IP on the season, but his 67% GB% is the highest in our system (min. 20 IP). I actually ranked him at #31 on my list, and was one of only 2 to even rank him. As a 4th rounder with a near slot bonus, I like what we have in this kid.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Oct 1, 2014 10:23:43 GMT -5
Yeah, I'm a little surprised by the Longhi omission ... here's a comparison:
Player A: 333/364/448 (current age: 21) Player B: 330/388/440 (current age: 19)
A is Sam Travis, B is Nick Longhi (both those guys had birthdays in August, btw). Now, clearly at this level, scouting takes the driver's seat in evaluation, but still ... I like Longhi's performance quite a bit. Plus, he at least has a chance to play LF instead of just being stuck at 1st.
As an aside, seeing the list from 5 years ago made me sad.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Oct 1, 2014 19:35:16 GMT -5
SALLY 9. Manuel Margot 17. Wendell Rijo
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Post by vermontsox1 on Oct 1, 2014 23:04:04 GMT -5
SALLY 9. Manuel Margot 17. Wendell Rijo And four OF ranked in a row: Meadows, Dahl, Judge, and Margot.
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Post by stevedillard on Oct 2, 2014 9:06:41 GMT -5
Surprised to see Margot ranked so "low" based on the reports we've heard. I won't react to Meadows at 6.
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