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Chris Sale
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 8, 2015 15:45:46 GMT -5
I think it would take the first page of Soxprospects.com to get both Sale and Abreu
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Post by pokeefe363 on Jul 8, 2015 16:34:58 GMT -5
I can't imagine this happening unless Hahn/Williams get the boot and are replaced by a Billy Beane clone, but what do you guys think of a deal like this? Red Sox get: Sale, Abreu White Sox get: Swihart, Margot, Johnson/Owens, Marrero, Joe Kelly, Nava Its a quantity v quality trade, which I know most trade speculators don't like as they often don't happen, but this would be essentially hitting the reset button for the White Sox. The pros for the Red Sox is that it would fill their two largest holes (with a LHRP being the third) for both this year and the next few years at below market $$ costs. Each of the players above i find to be expendable as the Red Sox have other options in the system. The White Sox rebuild with a stud rookie starting catcher, a stud OF prospect about 1 year away, a top 50 pitching prospect who is near ready, a SS who can give them the same production they currently have with a bit of room to grow (Would assume Alexei gets traded elsewhere) along with another arm with upside that needs some work. (Nava would be a placeholder at a reasonable cost) It clearly has a snowball's chance of happening (kinda like the Punto trade) but what do you guys think in terms of value and fit? (looking at Fangraphs depth charts, this would move the Red Sox from being the 8th best team over the rest of the season to being the second best team. It would also put them in a dead heat with the Yankees at ~86 wins to win the AL east) That's nowhere near enough on our end. If you added in Devers then that might be getting closer, but still likely not enough. You're talking about 2 4+ WAR performers on reasonable contracts in their prime.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 8, 2015 17:52:39 GMT -5
I would pursue a Sale trade if it could be centered around something like Margot + Owens though.
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Post by jmei on Jul 8, 2015 18:38:22 GMT -5
I would pursue a Sale trade if it could be centered around something like Margot + Owens though. So would everyone else. No chance that's enough, though.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 8, 2015 18:48:20 GMT -5
Yeah I don't think Sale talks are taking off unless Bogaerts or Betts is on the table. I think Betts might have around the same value as Sale (definitely possible to make arguments either way), so something like Betts, Devers, Johnson/Owens and Guerra/Marrero for Sale and Abreu might be the kind of deal that could make sense for both, but that sure would be a blockbuster.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 8, 2015 19:32:52 GMT -5
Perhaps I'm overvaluing Swihart - I'm seeing him as a first-division starter/borderline all-star who's cost controlled for 6 years. That too high? I figured Swihart would be a good starting piece as Vazquez will be coming back next year (although there should be questions on his arm and I'm not thinking he'll be as good as Swihart). Maybe if we look at the surplus value it would help. Sale: paid 47.15M; estimate value 4 years @ 35M/year = 92.85M (estimate 5WAR/year) Abreu: paid 44M; estiamte value 4 years @ 28M/year = 57.5M (estimate 5WAR/year for first two year -.5WAR and -1WAR for last two years) So 150.35M in excess value would equate to...Swihart (~50M), Moncada (~63M), Owens/Johnson (~25M), Marrero (~11M), Margot (~35M), Joe Kelly (~10M?), Nava (~2M?). There are a lot of estimates in here (kinda need to be), but I would estimate that adding someone like Guerra/Kopoech would make it an even deal. Or could add Moncada (I'm sure his market valuation would be a bit less than 63M as only one team offered that) and move some pieces around. I didn't include the rest of this season or the 'safeness' of the options Chris Sale has, so there is a bit more value there. But overall - I think that's getting close. Now would just need a GM with some giant cahones to pull it off a la Billy Beane. Looked at this and made some rough estimates: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/taking-a-stab-at-valuing-the-farm-systems/
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 9, 2015 6:53:26 GMT -5
Chris Sale might be the best pitcher in baseball right now. You're not getting him for borderline All-Stars.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 9, 2015 10:40:11 GMT -5
Yeah I don't think Sale talks are taking off unless Bogaerts or Betts is on the table. I think Betts might have around the same value as Sale (definitely possible to make arguments either way), so something like Betts, Devers, Johnson/Owens and Guerra/Marrero for Sale and Abreu might be the kind of deal that could make sense for both, but that sure would be a blockbuster. Likely correct, which is why I wouldn't really pursue him. Too much risk in arms. I'd rather have Mookie personally, considering how much longer we have him under control and his low risk, high upside profile.
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Post by larrycook on Jun 30, 2016 0:15:07 GMT -5
If the white sox fall out of this in the next month, I say back up the prospects truck and let's knock their sox off (pun intended) with an offer they can not refuse.
sale and Quintana for
Price (we eat the salary difference) Swihart Buchholz Kelly Owens Moncada Devers Kopech
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Post by cto94 on Jun 30, 2016 9:56:27 GMT -5
If the white sox fall out of this in the next month, I say back up the prospects truck and let's knock their sox off (pun intended) with an offer they can not refuse. sale and Quintana for Price (we eat the salary difference) Swihart Buchholz Kelly Owens Moncada Devers Kopech That's a lose-lose deal, what do they want with Buchholz at a salary close to what Sale makes? Or Kelly in general? And what's the point if you're dealing Price? That's basically gutting our farm system to add Quintana, who's really good, but not good enough to warrant dealing a combo of Moncada, Devers, Kopech and Swihart by himself, and eating $17m of Price's 30 a year literally makes swapping him for Sale pretty much a wash. Sale's so valuable largely because of his contract- if you suggested offering benintendi, moncada, devers, swihart and kopech or something I would get it: mortgage our future to give ourselves arguably the best 1-2 punch in the game at the top of the rotation, but Price makes this pointless. Maybe Chicago would take that deal, seeing as you're basically trading them a top-10 ranked farm system and an ace, but it wouldn't even make us that much better this year and it would be colossally stupid in the long run when we need to fill the holes we have at the infield corners and in left field.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 1, 2016 6:20:24 GMT -5
Sale is probably one of the few guys I would trade Moncada for.
Moncada, Vasquez, Devers, Eduardo Rodriguez, Michael Kopech and two low level prospects.
Am I still even in the realistic ballpark of acquiring Sale with this package?
Probably not, huh?
Yeah then I'd say forget it then....
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Post by jdb on Jul 1, 2016 13:01:30 GMT -5
I just don't see the White Sox trading Sale or Quintana. To me if they did it would tell the fans they're rebuilding and may as well trade both. It would hurt just hearing the names involved in the rumors much less the final deal.
I'm a huge fan of Benny but what about him for Rondon? I know it's rare for young players to get dealt for one another but I was just trying to think of a young pitcher with equal value where you wouldn't have to include much more if anything.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 1, 2016 13:08:23 GMT -5
Sale is probably one of the few guys I would trade Moncada for. Moncada, Vasquez, Devers, Eduardo Rodriguez, Michael Kopech and two low level prospects. Am I still even in the realistic ballpark of acquiring Sale with this package? Probably not, huh? Yeah then I'd say forget it then.... If they would trade him that's a fair offer.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jul 1, 2016 13:52:56 GMT -5
Sale is probably one of the few guys I would trade Moncada for. Moncada, Vasquez, Devers, Eduardo Rodriguez, Michael Kopech and two low level prospects. Am I still even in the realistic ballpark of acquiring Sale with this package? Probably not, huh? Yeah then I'd say forget it then.... If they would trade him that's a fair offer. Feels a little heavy on our end.....2 TOR ceilings & 2 blue chip positions players (in addition to the 60 mil). Unfortunately this is what they would probably want. I'm not sure any team could/would give a package like this.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 1, 2016 15:11:52 GMT -5
Sale is probably one of the few guys I would trade Moncada for. Moncada, Vasquez, Devers, Eduardo Rodriguez, Michael Kopech and two low level prospects. Am I still even in the realistic ballpark of acquiring Sale with this package? Probably not, huh? Yeah then I'd say forget it then.... If they would trade him that's a fair offer. A 7 for 1 deal? That never happens. I like Chris Sale but he's not Pedro Martinez or Sandy Koufax in their prime. And if Sale had arm issues? Then what? The Sox dealt seven via prospects/players for a guy who has arm problems - and with most pitchers it's usually just a matter of time. Way too risky for a pitcher.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 1, 2016 23:17:29 GMT -5
My biggest fear is price is the type of pitcher that folds under pressure.
Something in his makeup and past performance makes me think that the bigger the game the quicker the fold.
So if the white sox collapse over the course of the next 30 days, what a great opportunity to bring over Quintana and sale and send them back price, a few top prospects and a bag of cash.
Win-win in my book.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 1, 2016 23:47:45 GMT -5
My biggest fear is price is the type of pitcher that folds under pressure. Something in his makeup and past performance makes me think that the bigger the game the quicker the fold. So if the white sox collapse over the course of the next 30 days, what a great opportunity to bring over Quintana and sale and send them back price, a few top prospects and a bag of cash. Win-win in my book. That would be crazy. Price hasn't been that great this year, but check out his track record, and stop with the "bigger the game" nonsense, because apparently he's won a lot of "small" games and the Sox are going to need to win a lot more "small" games just to get into the playoffs. Did it ever occur to you that by the end of the season he might be toast? The guy pitches a lot of innings, and has been quite durable. Do you really think Price will continue to stink this year and for the foreseeable future? And you want to give them prospects, too? And how does this prevent the Sox from trotting out Buchholz and O'Sullivan in the #4/#5 slots in the rotation? How does this make any sense at all?
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 22, 2016 14:56:50 GMT -5
Jon Heyman @jonheyman 1m1 minute ago The #WhiteSox are at least listening on offers for Sale and Quintana, with the #RedSox among many interested parties
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Post by sierram363 on Jul 22, 2016 15:34:10 GMT -5
Jon Heyman @jonheyman 1m1 minute ago The #WhiteSox are at least listening on offers for Sale and Quintana, with the #RedSox among many interested parties Would they ask for Betts and Moncada as part of a larger trade package?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 22, 2016 16:56:23 GMT -5
Jon Heyman @jonheyman 1m1 minute ago The #WhiteSox are at least listening on offers for Sale and Quintana, with the #RedSox among many interested parties I think Beni and Yoan are probably off the table because they're penciled in to the 2017 lineup at for some point. Eduardo would probably be the first piece plus 1 (for Quintana) or 2+ (for Sale) of these guys: Swihart, Vazquez, Kopoech, Shaw, Devers. Anyone think Eduardo, Shaw and Swihart would be enough for Sale? Maybe a bit more?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 23, 2016 1:09:10 GMT -5
In this Market, with so many teams looking for pitching the price would be huge. Thinking one of Moncada or Benintendi, EROD, Swihart and a wild card player like Ockimey, Basabe, Dubon or Chavis, that might be a best case idea. It could take switching out Swihart and adding Kopech. Depends what they want more pitching or positional players. It's going to cost you like 3 top 50 current or former prospects and more. As much as I like Sale, I wouldn't make that trade. Not after trading AE for Pomeranz.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jul 23, 2016 9:01:14 GMT -5
In this Market, with so many teams looking for pitching the price would be huge. Thinking one of Moncada or Benintendi, EROD, Swihart and a wild card player like Ockimey, Basabe, Dubon or Chavis, that might be a best case idea. It could take switching out Swihart and adding Kopech. Depends what they want more pitching or positional players. It's going to cost you like 3 top 50 current or former prospects and more. As much as I like Sale, I wouldn't make that trade. Not after trading AE for Pomeranz. I would expect the White Sox to trade Sale and Robertson they would insist on either Betts or Bradley, Erod, Moncada and Kopech. I would hope Dombroski would say NFW as you would be givin up so much of the core of the Red Sox over the next 10 years. I don't think any pitcher would be worth that for a chance to win the WS this year, particularly if the Red Sox only make a one game wild card.
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Post by richardyoung151 on Jul 23, 2016 9:35:12 GMT -5
That 7 for 1 deal is a joke right? I would not trade Moncada for anybody but Jose Fernandez and it would have to be just him and maybe a couple lottery tickets. Has anybody seen him play? He has the "It" factor just like when I saw Mookie play and heard the sound of the ball off the bat. It sounds different than other players, even Benintendi.
Just imagine if Dumb Dombrowski didn't trade Espinoza for Pomeranz....they could've traded Espinoza, Benintendi, Travis Shaw or Vazquez and 1 or 2 lottery tickets like Acosta/Aybar/Pennington/Bautista/Steen
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Post by theburn on Jul 23, 2016 9:35:41 GMT -5
No way of knowing for sure, but if Sale is indeed on the block, I can't help but wonder if DD would have been better off waiting to use Espinoza in a trade for Sale.
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Chris Sale
Jul 23, 2016 13:16:21 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by cambos174 on Jul 23, 2016 13:16:21 GMT -5
I would think that a package headlined with Erod, Swihart, Devers & Travis should do it with a few more throw ins (Owens, Light).
It would be a lot of talent to give up, but all at positions that the Sox have options and/or players blocking them already.
I'd probably want to get Robertson back as well.
The rotation would be pretty nuts for a few years and would give Kopech and Groome time to develop.
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