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Post by terriblehondo on Sept 27, 2014 14:44:23 GMT -5
Comparing Tulo to Xander is insane. The only thing Xander has done better or can do better than Tulo is stay healthy. Tulo is a true shortstop. Xander is a square peg in a round hole. His whole value is with the bat. I hope Betts and Xander both hit and stay with the team. Sox need a leadoff hitter and a middle of the order bat. I just hope they get a SS and move Xander because I would rather have my crappy defense in the corners rather than the middle. my point was more on what may have been unrealistic expectations for XB's age 21 season, than making a straight comparison, w/ a frinedly reminder that putting up that many ABs at age 21 is atypical...that being said, XB's age 21 season measure up well, statistically to Tulo's age 21 (and age 23) season...and I don't underrate the durability "tool", even if it is the "only thing"... ...he hasn't given back any money to the Rockies, so it certainly impacts what they've paid for in they're eval of return/value on his contracts. My point was that Xander may well become a very good hitter. But that there is no way ever he will be anything close to Tulo at SS. Xander might become something like Hanley a bad defender who can hit. But Hanley was a much better athlete at the same age although Xanders make up is better. Xander may end up defending better than Hanley but I don't think he will ever hit .340 and sure will not steal even 30 bases in a year.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 27, 2014 15:27:17 GMT -5
Sorry Mookie, Xander was the better prospect for a reason. Both are awesome though. Xander was basically a better prospect because he didn't lose rookie eligibility in 2013. (By the way, after everyone got excited about Bogaerts starting to hit again after coming off the DL, he's .263/.244/.342 in the last two weeks. 9/0 K/BB ratio.) I think bogaerts is going to have hot and cold streaks until he learns to quit trying to pull everything and to take what the pitchers give him by going the other way. We move bogaerts to third next season and if we can trade for tulo, then so much the better. And while betts projects to be a really good player, since we have both betts and Castillo, and both are basically the same player. Something has to give there.
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Post by burythehammer on Sept 27, 2014 15:46:39 GMT -5
my point was more on what may have been unrealistic expectations for XB's age 21 season, than making a straight comparison, w/ a frinedly reminder that putting up that many ABs at age 21 is atypical...that being said, XB's age 21 season measure up well, statistically to Tulo's age 21 (and age 23) season...and I don't underrate the durability "tool", even if it is the "only thing"... ...he hasn't given back any money to the Rockies, so it certainly impacts what they've paid for in they're eval of return/value on his contracts. My point was that Xander may well become a very good hitter. But that there is no way ever he will be anything close to Tulo at SS. Xander might become something like Hanley a bad defender who can hit. But Hanley was a much better athlete at the same age although Xanders make up is better. Xander may end up defending better than Hanley but I don't think he will ever hit .340 and sure will not steal even 30 bases in a year. I don't know where you got this idea that Tulo is Ozzie Smith (you are probably overrating him a bit as a hitter too) but the fact is he's a 5-6 WAR player. That is well within Xander's reach in terms of ceiling. Don't overreact to one MLB season in which he was the average age of an A-ball player.
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Sept 27, 2014 16:01:59 GMT -5
Xander was basically a better prospect because he didn't lose rookie eligibility in 2013. (By the way, after everyone got excited about Bogaerts starting to hit again after coming off the DL, he's .263/.244/.342 in the last two weeks. 9/0 K/BB ratio.) I think bogaerts is going to have hot and cold streaks until he learns to quit trying to pull everything and to take what the pitchers give him by going the other way. We move bogaerts to third next season and if we can trade for tulo, then so much the better. And while betts projects to be a really good player, since we have both betts and Castillo, and both are basically the same player. Something has to give there. This is starting to be Bryce with Jay Bruce and Jason Heyward. Everywhere I go I see you squeezing a Tulo trade in you comment. I am with you on Tulo tho; nice to have.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 27, 2014 17:10:06 GMT -5
Xander was basically a better prospect because he didn't lose rookie eligibility in 2013. That's so untrue and shortsighted I don't even feel like arguing. I'll concede for the sake of it that Mookie was remarkably underrated as a prospect throughout his minor league career. But this isn't football, Mookie having an awesome year and Xander having a down one don't erase years of scouting on both of them.I don't know what sport you're following; prospect status changes drastically in one year. And as far as one year not changing things, sure. Unless it does. Bryce Harper was a better prospect/player than Mike Trout right up until he wasn't.
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Post by mredsox89 on Sept 27, 2014 17:13:40 GMT -5
I side with Xander, because he has the potential for an elite bat, and if he can become even a marginally below serviceable defensive SS he could be more valuable
But let's just say its much, much, closer than not that long ago
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Post by Don Caballero on Sept 27, 2014 22:19:50 GMT -5
I don't know what sport you're following; prospect status changes drastically in one year. And as far as one year not changing things, sure. Unless it does. Bryce Harper was a better prospect/player than Mike Trout right up until he wasn't. Nope, it doesn't as much as other sports. Remember Fernando Martinez, Brandon Wood, Lastings Milledge, Ian Stewart? They were all guys who were for one reason or another exposed and yet they kept getting rated highly and most of these guys keep getting second chances because of the "pedigree". You don't hear about that nearly as much as in other sports. One down year by a player (Bogie) and one very good year by another (Mookie) don't change the perception that was built during their entire careers. This isn't football. Trout has a career that it's better than Harper, with various scouting reports confirming that. It isn't a single year thing. I don't thing it's unfair to say Mookie has a higher floor than Bogaerts, while the second one has a higher ceiling. This isn't new, though.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 28, 2014 4:24:54 GMT -5
No one is mentioning the details, of which Xander has mainly one advantage, power. And so far it hasn't shown for him in the high minors or majors any better than Mookie's. Consider base stealing, obp, average, base running, drs at his intended position, consistency, hitting appoach, you name it and the numbers say Mookie. According to the numbers it really isn't that close and Mookie is trending up. Xander trending down.
Xander 2014 in mlb wRC+ : 82 Mookie 2014 in mlb wRC+ : 127
We got excited about Xander's power in the minors but so far Mookie has hit HR at a faster pace at the higher level minors and majors. Xander hit 16 two years ago and 12 this year. Well over 1100 AB. Mookie hit 15 last year and 16 this year. Roughly the same number of AB.
MLB K%: Xander: 23.3 Mookie: 14.2 Mookie's K percentage hasn't gone up at all since AAA. Xander's has gone up 6.1%
Xanders's total WAR this year: .5 Mookie's in almost 1/3 the number of AB: 1.7 (and Mookie has played out of position in a slot he hasn't played much at all...it could be a lot higher)
If you look closely at their minor league numbers it appears to me that from the numbers Mookie actually has more upside potential. I grant the Xander might well scout higher but I'm a Mookie convert. Even I think Xander has more potential but when I factor in the likelihood of reaching it I'm going with Mookie.
And positional flexibility is a significant factor. Mookie might be able to play twice the number of positions well compared to Xander. But you know what really stands out the most to me is Moookie just finds ways to beat you. He seems to find a way to get to 2nd base, find a way to score even when the throw is close, find a way to get the guy over, find a way to drive in the run in extra innings. The guy can make plays. Lot's of different plays. Defensively, on the base paths, offensively. If it were basketball in the last 20 seconds of the game he is the guy you would want to take the last shot.
Ask yourself. Have we seen that from Xander? It really isn't that close. Things could change but right now it's not that close.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 28, 2014 4:33:19 GMT -5
Mookie has 40 doubles and 6 triples this year. Xander has 27 doubles and 1 triple. Stolen bases this year. Betts 39, Xander 2.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 28, 2014 4:44:31 GMT -5
And by the way Tulo was a great defender when he came into the league. A plus 31 DRS in 2007. Comparisons to Xander are ridiculous. I am a huge fan of Xander but it is extremely unlikely he will ever reach Tulo's level. I expect Xander to be a middle of the order bat but never be a great defender. He is so young though that we really can't know his eventual level.
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Post by michael on Sept 28, 2014 10:25:57 GMT -5
I didn't vote because the question contains the word 'or'. IMNSHO the boys should only be separated by 'and.' This thread however timely is akin to a "which GTech Player is better "Nomar or Tek?" We are lucky to have both.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 28, 2014 11:21:29 GMT -5
I don't know what sport you're following; prospect status changes drastically in one year. And as far as one year not changing things, sure. Unless it does. Bryce Harper was a better prospect/player than Mike Trout right up until he wasn't. Nope, it doesn't as much as other sports. Remember Fernando Martinez, Brandon Wood, Lastings Milledge, Ian Stewart? They were all guys who were for one reason or another exposed and yet they kept getting rated highly and most of these guys keep getting second chances because of the "pedigree". You don't hear about that nearly as much as in other sports. One down year by a player (Bogie) and one very good year by another (Mookie) don't change the perception that was built during their entire careers. This isn't football. Trout has a career that it's better than Harper, with various scouting reports confirming that. It isn't a single year thing. I don't thing it's unfair to say Mookie has a higher floor than Bogaerts, while the second one has a higher ceiling. This isn't new, though. So your point is that Xander is better because he's like Brandon Wood and Lastings Milledge? I'm thoroughly confused.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Sept 28, 2014 11:25:16 GMT -5
Sorry Mookie, Xander was the better prospect for a reason. Both are awesome though. I'm not even sure Xander was the better prospect. The timing was such that he was rated higher by the publications, but that is just a timing thing. If Mookie was eligible this offseason (like Xander last) he would quite easily be a top 5 prospect IMO. I personally love both these guys and am thrilled to have them on the team. I hope the team sees them for the centerpieces to build around that they are.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 28, 2014 11:32:39 GMT -5
It's tough to leave a relationship you care about for a new one. I'd like to see real data that indicates Xander is better but I don't see it. I think some of you guys got so attached to Xander that you can't accept that young blonde who just walked by is better.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 28, 2014 12:41:24 GMT -5
Comparing Tulo to Xander is insane. The only thing Xander has done better or can do better than Tulo is stay healthy. Tulo is a true shortstop. Xander is a square peg in a round hole. His whole value is with the bat. I hope Betts and Xander both hit and stay with the team. Sox need a leadoff hitter and a middle of the order bat. I just hope they get a SS and move Xander because I would rather have my crappy defense in the corners rather than the middle. Bogaerts is untouchable, but needs to play 3rd base. We need to trade for tulo and keep cechini and/or holt as backups for when tulo gets hurt. When healthy tulo is the second best position player in baseball. You say this every single time, but Xander looked so bad at 3rd that I don't understand why anyone thinks it. I think he proves that not every SS can play 3B.
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Post by terriblehondo on Sept 28, 2014 12:41:50 GMT -5
My point was that Xander may well become a very good hitter. But that there is no way ever he will be anything close to Tulo at SS. Xander might become something like Hanley a bad defender who can hit. But Hanley was a much better athlete at the same age although Xanders make up is better. Xander may end up defending better than Hanley but I don't think he will ever hit .340 and sure will not steal even 30 bases in a year. I don't know where you got this idea that Tulo is Ozzie Smith (you are probably overrating him a bit as a hitter too) but the fact is he's a 5-6 WAR player. That is well within Xander's reach in terms of ceiling. Don't overreact to one MLB season in which he was the average age of an A-ball player. If you think Xander will ever play Shortstop at Tulo's level when he first came up you are sadly mistaken. I did not compare Tulo to Ozzie either so get a grip. If Xander is your personal binkie that is fine too. Hanley has played SS for a long time but no one would ever say that he is as good a SS as Tulo. As far as over rating someone I would say you are overrating Xander a bit. I think he will be a good hitter but I do not think he will ever be a good SS.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 28, 2014 12:46:27 GMT -5
I'm sure you could consider both of them capable of being below-average defensive shortstops. Just because Xander has that spot and Mookie doesn't have a position doesn't mean the value of the player changes. The value of the player absolutely changes to the team. You can't play two shortstops (or, more realistically, two second baseman), so if Betts has to be pushed to another position, especially one like the corner outfield which is very low on the defensive spectrum, it makes him potentially tradeable. If Betts would be a win more valuable at 2B than in RF (which is very likely the case), another team might value him highly enough that they'd give up enough in return to make it worth moving him. I just can't agree that Xander is worth more because it seems that he isn't as defensively versatile to play other positions as Betts is. If you can assume that Betts could play SS as well as Xander - (increased range and lesser arm), that is. I mean if we had Honus Wagner at SS and Rice, Lynn and Evans in the OF, would Betts and Xander be worth nothing? Just the fact that Betts could probably replace Xander if we traded him, makes him worth as much from a positional standpoint.
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Post by jmei on Sept 28, 2014 13:27:27 GMT -5
The value of the player absolutely changes to the team. You can't play two shortstops (or, more realistically, two second baseman), so if Betts has to be pushed to another position, especially one like the corner outfield which is very low on the defensive spectrum, it makes him potentially tradeable. If Betts would be a win more valuable at 2B than in RF (which is very likely the case), another team might value him highly enough that they'd give up enough in return to make it worth moving him. I just can't agree that Xander is worth more because it seems that he isn't as defensively versatile to play other positions as Betts is. If you can assume that Betts could play SS as well as Xander - (increased range and lesser arm), that is. I mean if we had Honus Wagner at SS and Rice, Lynn and Evans in the OF, would Betts and Xander be worth nothing? Just the fact that Betts could probably replace Xander if we traded him, makes him worth as much from a positional standpoint. The question was not who is worth more, the question was who is more tradeable. Because Mookie is blocked at his natural position (and is much less valuable in an outfield corner), you could contemplate trading him if you're the Boston front office. If you're instead concerned about who is more valuable in a vacuum, I agree that it's probably Mookie (one extra year of team control, much higher floor), but that's not the question that was posed or the one the Red Sox are considering. (I also disagree that Betts would be a better defensive shortstop than Bogaerts. As Chris is fond of saying, there's a reason one guy stuck at SS and the other didn't. I'd also disagree with the idea that Xander could never be a decent defensive third baseman. 40-some games is a tiny sample to evaluate someone on that end of the field, and Xander's defensive struggles came at a time when he was really scuffling offensively as well. His continued insistence that he sees himself as a shortstop is frankly obnoxious, but I think if he applied himself and got the necessary practice reps at the position, he could be a fine third baseman.)
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Post by larrycook on Sept 28, 2014 14:03:28 GMT -5
Bogaerts is untouchable, but needs to play 3rd base. We need to trade for tulo and keep cechini and/or holt as backups for when tulo gets hurt. When healthy tulo is the second best position player in baseball. You say this every single time, but Xander looked so bad at 3rd that I don't understand why anyone thinks it. I think he proves that not every SS can play 3B. Did he really play bad? Or was he disoriented after being jerked around by sox management?
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 28, 2014 14:23:26 GMT -5
You say this every single time, but Xander looked so bad at 3rd that I don't understand why anyone thinks it. I think he proves that not every SS can play 3B. Did he really play bad? Or was he disoriented after being jerked around by sox management? He had as many errors at 3B as he did at SS this season, in half as many innings. That's using the simplest counting stat. But the advanced stats say he's pretty much an average MLB shortstop in a sample size that is too small. Watching him, he looks way more comfortable and natural at SS to me.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 28, 2014 14:51:11 GMT -5
This could be interpreted a number of different way:
"Who is more untradeable to you: Mookie or Xander?"
I interpreted it as "If you had to make a trade which is the guy you wouldn't want to trade". One could interpret it as meaning "Who doen't fit the Redsox plans as well as the other?". In some ways if Mookie is better he would be even more tradable as more teams would want him...
The thread title is very imprecise.
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Post by okin15 on Sept 28, 2014 15:34:11 GMT -5
I think Mookie has more value left because of the additional year of team control, (which is again part of why he's more tradeable, because he has so much value right now). But I don't know that I believe he will become a more important part of the 2015-20 Red Sox (if both stuck with the team). I think Xander can be a fixture at the most important defensive position, and a 3-5 hitter in a world where those are disappearing. Don't forget how gaga we were over him after about the same MLB sample last October. Any statistical comparison of the two needs to include all of Xander's MLB at-bats, not just the season he struggled. He still comes out behind, due to his stretch of impotence this year, but it's a bit closer. It's pretty hard in my mind to differentiate on their future value, so I'd trade the one I could get the most for.
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Post by burythehammer on Sept 28, 2014 19:28:23 GMT -5
I don't know where you got this idea that Tulo is Ozzie Smith (you are probably overrating him a bit as a hitter too) but the fact is he's a 5-6 WAR player. That is well within Xander's reach in terms of ceiling. Don't overreact to one MLB season in which he was the average age of an A-ball player. If you think Xander will ever play Shortstop at Tulo's level when he first came up you are sadly mistaken. It's a good thing I said nothing of the sort, then. But you seem to think that this means it is impossible for Xander to be as good as Tulo in terms of OVERALL value (which of course is all that matters). That's where you're completely wrong, unless like I said you are putting way too much stock into 2014 and have lowered your view of Xander significantly. At his best Hanley himself was every bit the player Tulo is despite being much worse defensively.
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Post by sportnik on Sept 28, 2014 20:03:31 GMT -5
This is easy. Mookie is more untouchable, simply because he doesn't have Scott Boros as an agent. Let's face it, we have 6 years of Xander before he's off to free agency and we either lose him or have to overpay to keep him. And we just pissed away a year well before he was ready to make a significant contribution to the team. For this reason alone, I'd be willing to put him in a Stanton deal.
In fact, if Xander looks like the 2014 Xander in spring training, I think the sox should start him in aaa to get a year of eligibility back. This is business after all and Boros would do the same if he were on the other side of the table. ] Mookie, on the other hand should be here for the long haul. I'd like to see Pedrioa, who appears to me to be in an obvious decline, moved to allow Mookie to play his natural position.
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Post by cologneredsox on Sept 30, 2014 11:02:56 GMT -5
As much fun as this is: Please let us have the Joy of seeing both of these special players for many years to come as cornerstones of our defense and offensive game. For whatever position...
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